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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #310,341
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:02pm Apr 27, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting dobbie11
Thanks but it is the only way to say it. i have been doing this for 8 yrs. first 3 and half lost my ass off , till I finally got it.
i understand very well what you say!!!
really very well!!!

indeed i did my best trading months at the very beginning, only looking charts. then added indicators, reading news, listening to things......
and lost all profits.
so then i finally realised that there is only one thing to do to trade: read price.
but it is not that simple even to explain, because the words "reading price" don't explain deeply their meaning.
it took me more than 1 year to understand!

actually i don't have "unexpected" moves. and this move in GU i agree with everybody: is insane!!! but hell... just because it is insane, if not into any positions, i would not certainly open a trade counter this train!! at least better wait next station!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #310,342
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:08pm Apr 27, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting _BBKing_
yes indeed is a total waste of brain, time, evergy, server space (lol) and many other things, trying to give a reasonable reason () about a move.
there is 2503045353,3 websites full of people arguing facts, like happening after a soccer match: "everyone knows it better than the player it self!"

you said it right: buyers want price to go higher! and they fueled this move in a very perfect upward trend (for example your point F in daily is a monthly pivot area left untested in the insane upward momentum) i would pay a fee to...
idd - but if one has to use oscillators, one has to use momentum as well - works perfectly fine for me - if they don't line up in harmony and i'm in doubt, i'll stay out until the next price level that's interesting has been reached - some ppl use candles only and maybe volume, draw some lines and trade according to that - everything works actually, as long as there's something like a healthy MM and reasonable RR - every trade is a cosstoin tbh - i try to get an edge by divergence, momentum and (even oscillators, lol) - anyway - green pips to ppl like u m8 =)
  • #310,343
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:13pm Apr 27, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting 853efx
lol, i just found out, there's still one small position running at BE on GU - will keep it alive over the week-end, just in case the old lady will drawn...
closed in profit - and i found another EU short (lol) that i closed in profit as well - felt like a nice gift from a gentleman, if i were a woman - but helps me to understand women a little more - don't spoil em but make some gifts and funny stuff once in a while, they deserve it =)
  • #310,344
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:25pm Apr 27, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting 853efx
idd - but if one has to use oscillators, one has to use momentum as well - works perfectly fine for me - if they don't line up in harmony and i'm in doubt, i'll stay out until the next price level that's interesting has been reached - some ppl use candles only and maybe volume, draw some lines and trade according to that - everything works actually, as long as there's something like a healthy MM and reasonable RR - every trade is a cosstoin tbh - i try to get an edge by divergence, momentum and (even oscillators, lol) - anyway - green pips to ppl...
i definetly prefer a naked chart with some lines and study to read direction.
best setups will happens next weeks if prices will go re-test previous untested levels.
candles?
mmm
too many times we see a reversal candle then the candle closes, and the 00:01 secod after the closing time price print a killer V turn. like did today for example near 6180 previous top. i bet that some retailer's millions went burnt after that killer h1 candle.

best setups ever are looking weekly charts. candle closes, then all other TF goes up - down to test sup demands into previous levels.
EU did this week.
maybe GU will do next week!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #310,345
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:33pm Apr 27, 2012 3:33pm
ok switching off definetly.

have a good week end, week, month, year everybody.

see you all when price will be 1.65-1.66 area.
maybe never, who knows?!

good luck and green pips
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #310,346
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:45pm Apr 27, 2012 3:45pm
The best area for the end of the third wave ?!
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  • #310,347
  • Apr 27, 2012 4:08pm Apr 27, 2012 4:08pm
Off to the happy traders thread to celebrate with champaign let's see what the charts bring next week
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #310,348
  • Apr 27, 2012 5:50pm Apr 27, 2012 5:50pm
This is probably one of the most interesting charts of cable at the moment. Retailers have been shorting this the whole way up mistaking the value of the pound to the economic success of the Uk, Which is of course only true some of the time. Their system of betting on black beacuse red has come out 9 times in a row great, thats just what they want, and when over 80% of the market is using that system, you end up with a market that short and using small stops. What I want to see in this chart is the shorts give up and start to turn long, before I'm comfortable with shorting this for trades any longer than intraday scalps. The thing about cable is the moves it has made over the past 2 weeks were the moves it made all the time a few years ago- except then it did it in a couple of days, cable is prone to extended swings in one direction- it wasn't know known as the beast for nothing. In fact if you read from page one of this thread- you can see cable move form 1.89 to 1.98, with everyone shorting cable on its way up blowing their accounts, (while at the same time euro was trading at 1.33)
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  • #310,349
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:56pm Apr 27, 2012 6:56pm
So, quite a week again although not as big a pip range as last week - price covering only 83% (203 pips) of it's 20 month average, and so far this month (with only 1 trading day of the month left) 78% (475 pips) of the 20 month atr. Friday saw price cover 136% (127 pips) of it's 20 day average.

Monthly
The Monthly candle has not closed but is so far lookimg bullish - if it closes bullishly (likely?) it will be the 4th consectuive monthly close off the recent 5234 low. I will comment more on this t/f next w/e.

Weekly
Another weekly candle bullish thrust candle close that saw an upside follow thru on last week's no-brainer weekly thrust candle close. (there were still many shorting it for cricket score targets ! - you can't help some people ! lol !) This t/f remains in a general opa uptrend with 3 x HH's now the last at this week's hi (6279.) No fractal swing yet at this HH.

Daily
Friday saw the 10th consecutive bullish close on this daily t/f, low in probability certainly - but the 2nd time this has happened this year - the move up from 5234 to mid 5700's involved 10 consecutive bullish daily candles too. This t/f remains in a general opa uptrend with 2 x HL's and a H now. It's 50sma remains crossed above it's 100sma and now above it's 200sma and both the 50 and 100 are pointing up.

4Hr
This t/f has pretty much been in a classic opa uptrend since the 1st HH off 5817 after 2 HL's...it has been making discernable obvious fractal HH's and HL's all the way up to Friday's 6279 Hi. It's 50sma is crossed above it's 100sma and this is crossed above it's 200sma and all 3 point up.

-----------------------

Friday's hi came right at the top of the previous minor daily swing lo zone (previous support) described below and price has pulled back from this. It is statistically highly unlikely that Monday's daily candle will close bullishly - more so than Wednesday, Thursday's and Friday's - which all did too (!) Some commentators have been 'bigging up' the next unbreeched weekly ascending trend line which on Monday will come through on the Daily candle around 6330 area.

Is it all looking a bit 'overbought' - yes - but that's what a trend is - it is an overbought or oversold market-deviated from it's mean. Will be interesting to see if there is any more pullback from Friday's hi and to see how the Monthly candle closes.

To the upside: (incl next week's Weekly and Monday's Daily pivots)

[ 6255-79 prev minor Daily sw lo zone (non immed) incl 6275= 85.4% 6454-5234
[ 6272-79 minor 1hr sw hi zone
6289 76.4% 6617-5234
6310 Daily R1
6316 Monthly R2 @/around
[ 6330-35 Weekly descending trend line on present Daily candle (Monday)
[ 6335 Weekly R1 @/around
6358 Daily R2
6388 76.4% 6746-5234
6409 Weekly R2 @/around
6415 85.4% 6617-5234
6420-53 prev Daily sw hi zone
6485 = Daily R3 @/around
6524 85.4% 6746-5234
[ 6550-73 prev Daily sw hi zone
[ 6560-70 Weekly descending trend line on present Daily candle (Monday)
6570-88-6617 prev Monthly/Weekly sw hi zone incl 6597 = Monthly R3 @/around, and 6613 = Weekly R3 @/around

G/L
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ex member
  • #310,350
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:57pm Apr 27, 2012 6:57pm
i finally found the reason for the cable rally

they tranquilized the bear so he fall from a tree

http://img.picshare.at/1335570964_Tranquilized-Bear.jpg
  • #310,351
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:57pm Apr 27, 2012 6:57pm
Great analysis - thank you. You 'get it' - there are some in here that don't ! Lol.

G/L

Quoting Flatfish
This is probably one of the most interesting charts of cable at the moment. Retailers have been shorting this the whole way up mistaking the value of the pound to the economic success of the Uk, Which is of course only true some of the time. Their system of betting on black beacuse red has come out 9 times in a row great, thats just what they want, and when over 80% of the market is using that system, you end up with a market that short and using small stops. What I want to see in this chart is the shorts give up and start to turn long, before I'm...
ex member
  • #310,352
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:00pm Apr 27, 2012 7:00pm
Quoting torkay77
i finally found the reason for the cable rally

they tranquilized the bear so he fall from a tree

http://img.picshare.at/1335570964_Tranquilized-Bear.jpg
=)))
  • #310,353
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:02pm Apr 27, 2012 7:02pm
Quoting Flatfish
This is probably one of the most interesting charts of cable at the moment. Retailers have been shorting this the whole way up mistaking the value of the pound to the economic success of the Uk, Which is of course only true some of the time. Their system of betting on black beacuse red has come out 9 times in a row great, thats just what they want, and when over 80% of the market is using that system, you end up with a market that short and using small stops. What I want to see in this chart is the shorts give up and start to turn long, before I'm...
the divergence i c is almost ridiculous - GU is a bubble, ready to implode - 6150 next (TP1)
  • #310,354
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:03pm Apr 27, 2012 7:03pm
Quoting 853efx
the divergence i c is almost ridiculous - GU is a bubble, ready to implode - 6150 next (TP1)
do what u do - i'm on my way to get rich, bitch
  • #310,355
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:10pm Apr 27, 2012 7:10pm
Quoting 853efx
the divergence i c is almost ridiculous - GU is a bubble, ready to implode - 6150 next (TP1)
in my experience oscillator divergence on it's own means nothing - is it a repeating pattern of oscillator div that points toa repeating pattern of market behaviour ? Is this a hi-probability pattern ? How many of these patterns have you observed ? What is it's strike rate ? etc etc etc .....

I'm not 'dissing' divergence - I use oscillator divergence as one of the cenral planks of my entry set-ups - is repeating patterns of osc div that add to other tech stuff that produce repeating entry set-ups/patterns that point to the greater probability of what will happen to price next - ie they point to and graphically illustrate on a chart what the greater probability is of market behaviour. You just have to judicious in it's application and it's potential validity.

G/L
ex member
  • #310,356
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:18pm Apr 27, 2012 7:18pm
Quoting 853efx
do what u do - i'm on my way to get rich, bitch
I reckon is a bubble...but what about the time when it explodes?
  • #310,357
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:31pm Apr 27, 2012 7:31pm
Well since we are of course all entitled to our own opinions, I think the USD is the real bubble here and it is currently imploding
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #310,358
  • Apr 27, 2012 10:09pm Apr 27, 2012 10:09pm
Why is it insane BB? It was insane that the pound went up to 2.0000 was that insane and the major move came the day after Thanksgiving. Go back and take a look. The only thing that may be insane is to try and fight the move. Remember 90% of all news and fundies are already priced in. Then the news is release and we have a knee jerk reaction and then it goes right back to the technical move. There nothing different about this move , other then everyone is trying to pic a top and guess what, they are getting it wrong. So they get upset cuz they are trying to change the market. Keep in mind that just like sports records, they are meant to be broken. Well so are S&R and Fib levels. Use them as a indication were the market may turn, not were it will turn.


Quoting _BBKing_
i understand very well what you say!!!
really very well!!!

indeed i did my best trading months at the very beginning, only looking charts. then added indicators, reading news, listening to things......
and lost all profits.
so then i finally realised that there is only one thing to do to trade: read price.
but it is not that simple even to explain, because the words "reading price" don't explain deeply their meaning.
it took me more than 1 year to understand!

actually i don't have "unexpected" moves. and this move in GU i agree with everybody:...
  • #310,359
  • Apr 27, 2012 10:58pm Apr 27, 2012 10:58pm
Quoting Erfan-FX
The best area for the end of the third wave ?!

Do u think that It( GU ) will be back at 1.60 next week.?
  • #310,360
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:12am Apr 28, 2012 12:12am
Sentiment has crossed
.
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