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EUR/CHF

  • #6,241
  • Apr 27, 2012 9:22am Apr 27, 2012 9:22am
Quoting worsttrader
okay, i accept ur opinion and honestly, i mostly agree with u. but i tink in some cases there r 'special rules' and 'u have to be brave, if u want to be rich'. anyway, soros (whose name i know well, we r compatriots) thought the same in '92, so i think there r moments in the life when u have to risk. than time will tell u if u were right or wrong.
I understand your point, of course nobody will ever say that is the "right" way, most of the time you will burn when taking huge risks.
But it always comes in life (more times) the right opportunity to take huge risks and make huge rewards.
Many people will call you crazy, and then will call you lucky, just don't care too much about what other people think!
  • #6,242
  • Apr 27, 2012 9:30am Apr 27, 2012 9:30am
Quoting tunera
I understand your point, of course nobody will ever say that is the "right" way, most of the time you will burn when taking huge risks.
But it always comes in life (more times) the right opportunity to take huge risks and make huge rewards.
Many people will call you crazy, and then will call you lucky, just don't care too much about what other people think!
i really dont do when i opened this position, i counted on intervention/peg. if this is what anybody wants to call luck....do what they want. i would rather call unluck if its broken. and call this situation as a very rare, big opportunity that can easily helps me to earn money and in which u have to risk.
  • #6,243
  • Apr 27, 2012 9:37am Apr 27, 2012 9:37am
Quoting worsttrader
i really dont do when i opened this position, i counted on intervention/peg. if this is what anybody wants to call luck....do what they want. i would rather call unluck if its broken. and call this situation as a very rare, big opportunity that can easily helps me to earn money and in which u have to risk.
The problem with this is that especially the low capitalised traders fall for these "no brainer trades".
Everybody and his uncle went long expecting the PEG to hold and to double,triple or whatever their money.
Small risk, high reward seems too good to be true.

And if something seems too good to be true it probably is.

As I expect the PEG to hold and most of the traders are wrong (and in this case most are long) the price has to stay in a very narrow range to proofe both scenarios to become true.
The price movement to the upside happens when nobody believes in it any more.
  • #6,244
  • Apr 27, 2012 9:41am Apr 27, 2012 9:41am
Quoting candeloro
The problem with this is that especially the low capitalised traders fall for these "no brainer trades".
Everybody and his uncle went long expecting the PEG to hold and to double,triple or whatever their money.
Small risk, high reward seems too good to be true.

And if something seems too good to be true it probably is.

As I expect the PEG to hold and most of the traders are wrong (and in this case most are long) the price has to stay in a very narrow range to proofe both scenarios to become true.
The price movement to the upside happens...
Are you not long? If I can ask
  • #6,245
  • Apr 27, 2012 9:43am Apr 27, 2012 9:43am
Quoting tunera
Are you not long? If I can ask
I have a buy order above 1.2040
Now I am just trading in between waiting for 1.2005 to go long (would not go short)
  • #6,246
  • Apr 27, 2012 9:54am Apr 27, 2012 9:54am
Quoting candeloro
The problem with this is that especially the low capitalised traders fall for these "no brainer trades".
Everybody and his uncle went long expecting the PEG to hold and to...
well, i think going against snb - shorting - would be more "no brainer trade"
maybe im right, maybe not, it will emerge.
  • #6,247
  • Apr 27, 2012 9:54am Apr 27, 2012 9:54am
Quoting candeloro
I have a buy order above 1.2040
Now I am just trading in between waiting for 1.2005 to go long (would not go short)
may i asked, are you sure your buy order will be filled (for example the last price movement 1000 pips), none of my buy stop were filled.
  • #6,248
  • Apr 27, 2012 10:01am Apr 27, 2012 10:01am
I do not expect an increase of the PEG
I think the price will establish a new trend to the upside, if this pair is "allowed" to move at all.
  • #6,249
  • Apr 27, 2012 10:46am Apr 27, 2012 10:46am
u all remember when we went below 2030 first time? the way to 2000 lasts about 10 secs. no we below 2020 for days and today below 2010 but market seems much more....careful
  • #6,250
  • Apr 27, 2012 10:46am Apr 27, 2012 10:46am
"best" brokers will have wonderful weekend after this evening...
  • #6,251
  • Apr 27, 2012 10:57am Apr 27, 2012 10:57am
Quoting pipxster
"best" brokers will have wonderful weekend after this evening...
Yeah, there will be the happy hour (stop hunt hour) before market close
  • #6,252
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:02am Apr 27, 2012 11:02am
does anybody know an ea that switches buy order to sell and vice versa?
  • #6,253
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:14am Apr 27, 2012 11:14am
interestingly neither dow jones nor mni or reuters have not posted Jordans declining comment on negative interest rate. it was only on twitter

did he really say that?
  • #6,254
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:27am Apr 27, 2012 11:27am
Quoting tunera
Ahahah, you make my day
Yeah i see retail people are damn angry now, even in twitter the nervousness is palpable, we are waiting from many months some activity from this guys, they say they are ready to take further measures at any time, but they just joking with the market.
No way 9blns or 90blns is nothing, if the market decide to sell that shit with utmost determination the floor will be devasted.
If I were Jordan, I do the same. Many risks to central bank and many risks to political position of Jordan.
In 2010, SNB had a big loss of 21 billion CHF, it may happen again in 2012. Beside that SNB can not raise the peg successfully for many reasons.
Political position of Jordan: he can be fired if he made this loss. Beside that, he doesn’t have the courage and talent like Hildebrand to challenge the market and political parties.
When Hildebrand resigned, he can find the job elsewhere because he is the star in his field, he is self-assured and talented. He knows his territory very well even he is not economist.
Jordan is different, he is older than Hildebrand, may be he can not find the job if he must resign, especially if the reason is incompetence of managing the SNB floor. Only the job of Teacher of University of Berne, he can do it. But who will want to study the Professor who is not successful in his job of chairman of SNB?
Of course he must have his private life with wife and children and must save them. Retired or resigned soon is not a good choice.
Beside that, Jordan had bad communication with market: each times he talks, the CHF will be stronger. I think He should be the chairman of ECB, after his talking, the euro will go up.
Until now, wait-and-see and let everybody to sleep is the best strategy.
Jordan does nothing in setting floor 1.20 but the market congratulate the SNB to set that floor (and SNB including other members as Hildebrand, Jordan, Danthine). Doing nothing or very little and having the reward, why not?
Jordan had less effort to get the chairman of SNB. He is elected chairman because Hildebrand resigned, and SNB can not find the people worsen than him. Even the President of Swiss government stated: Jordan is clearly a leading man. But I think he should be a leading stupid waiting man
Hildebrand do much to have the floor, Jordan do little and have the floor too. This is the big success of Jordan???
However, Hildebrand haves the big success (not a success to set the floor) that nobody in Swiss government can have: the love and the respect of many people. Good luck to you Hildebrand, I do not have your private email, so I must use this forum to thank you.
For Jordan, you have the strategy of sleeping but you must know that you should do it alone in future because now few people want to support you. I don’t wish you success but I understand that you still have your family to take care and of course your face must be decorative, so keep your position as long as you can.
For many retail traders, close your long position as you can and choose other pair. Forgive and forget Jordan and SNB too. Don’t believe in SNB, if not we are like them (Stupid and Betray).
Thanks everyone to make excited forum, especially who make the picture and film to relaxe
  • #6,255
  • Apr 27, 2012 12:43pm Apr 27, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting tunera
I think dowjones keep quiet about the snb speech because it was slightly ridiculous, i mean they just used the same phrases again and again one more time, nothing NEW (from "NEW" comes the word "news"), so basically no news.

And now, some comment, my last ones (then i will stop really continuing to flood this thread with my thoughts, sorry for that).
What is happening must be considered from many aspects, we should not make fast judgements.

First (1):
Look at the chart, it's clear that we are at a super bottom and a breakout will happen...

thanks for your analysis and optimism
I also think May can bring a move up.
I was thinking it will go 1.202x so I can lower my leverage but I'm ready to wait.
  • #6,256
  • Apr 27, 2012 12:58pm Apr 27, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting rcrist
thanks for your analysis and optimism
I also think May can bring a move up.
I was thinking it will go 1.202x so I can lower my leverage but I'm ready to wait.
one thing is for sure, the 'sell in may and go away' wont happen on eurchf
  • #6,257
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:39pm Apr 27, 2012 2:39pm
Is there a forecast for next week ? Up or down ?
  • #6,258
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:40pm Apr 27, 2012 2:40pm
I have long at 1.2035, I wait 1.2060
  • #6,259
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:05pm Apr 27, 2012 3:05pm
Quoting fanta
Is there a forecast for next week ? Up or down ?
Definitely UP...1.2020 MAX... so close and reopen later
  • #6,260
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:14pm Apr 27, 2012 3:14pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
Definitely UP...1.2020 MAX... so close and reopen later

I wait for a 1.202 as well...
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