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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #310,321
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:09pm Apr 27, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting 853efx
if u would use a momentum indicator, u would not have opened a short position at 1.6260 - but i don't know anything about ur risk management, but still...i'm out
you are right, i dont use that indicator

anyway i test the 16270 cause to my view good entry for short is 16330/16350

but its friday no reason to keep those positions that dead hours. better close and see again on monday
There shall be no QE3
  • #310,322
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:11pm Apr 27, 2012 2:11pm
I really do not understand what everyone is bitching about . People saying there is market manipulation and they do not understand why the pound is going up. Well it is call a technical move and the fundamentals have very little to do with a technical move, that is why we see price retrace a little and then bounce right back up. I know you have looked at the long term chart as Nav has explained. But every thought he was crazy. Fact of the matter is he had to wait a while. But we are in a corrective pennant. Attached is the weekly chart. Target is 1.6525 to 6550.

Also 3 weeks ago on here everyone was stating long, when the market looked like it was ready to sink. Well we are long. So stop trying to pick the top and go with the trend until other wise told.

Yes there is divergence on the 4hr, 1yr and so on. But not on the daily, not yet and divergence can still run for a time. So in the mean time use your 5 and 15 min tf to pick a spot to get in with a tight stop and ride this for another 275pips. If a retrace is in order I would look for 1.6050 to 1.6115. Which very well may happen real soon.

Start reading the Tech and stop worry about the news and fundamentals. And out thinking the market, not going to happen.

Happy pips to all.....
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  • #310,323
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:16pm Apr 27, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
if u read my analysis..everything is there..it isnt a bubble..its all in the chart and it easy to read as well..any1 understand price action and using technicals would see this as a technical formation playing out to the T

every1 on the wrong side..simply thought with there head and i warn u people..i entered a cheeky sell..because i thought it would at least taste 1.62..the strength is unbelievable but its weak right now

and thats what u people dont get..its USD weakness that caused this..
Yep, no one likes USD, very good analysis
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #310,324
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:17pm Apr 27, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
honestly there is no manipulation..its just a question of reading chart..i hate that i hedged but it was a win situation for me because the amount i lose im happy with..assuming the sum bitch doesnt fall

trust me when i tell u..GU might break so high people could blow account..and its in the chart..
all this talk about manipulation is shit..its an excuse to say..i didnt get it wrong!!..nobody take this personal ..im just saying the truth

when u were all short i was bulish
You have been bullish for about a year now!!!!!!!! You stuck to your guns...and you should see profit soon - all good at your end! Have a good weekend my friend. Cheers to you!
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #310,325
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:17pm Apr 27, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting dobbie11
I really do not understand what everyone is bitching about . People saying there is market manipulation and they do not understand why the pound is going up. Well it is call a technical move and the fundamentals have very little to do with a technical move, that is why we see price retrace a little and then bounce right back up. I know you have looked at the long term chart as Nav has explained. But every thought he was crazy. Fact of the matter is he had to wait a while. But we are in a corrective pennant. Attached is the weekly chart. Target...
useful post - cheers =)
  • #310,326
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:19pm Apr 27, 2012 2:19pm
I'm still holding my hedge from the 59 area, I doubt I will be making profit on my sells anytime soon or at all, but who knows right.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #310,327
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:21pm Apr 27, 2012 2:21pm
lol, i just found out, there's still one small position running at BE on GU - will keep it alive over the week-end, just in case the old lady will drawn...
  • #310,328
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:22pm Apr 27, 2012 2:22pm
Quoting dobbie11
I really do not understand what everyone is bitching about . People saying there is market manipulation and they do not understand why the pound is going up. Well it is call a technical move and the fundamentals have very little to do with a technical move, that is why we see price retrace a little and then bounce right back up. I know you have looked at the long term chart as Nav has explained. But every thought he was crazy. Fact of the matter is he had to wait a while. But we are in a corrective pennant. Attached is the weekly chart. Target is...
I speak for myself here but the fundamentals are pissing me off not T/A.

GBP - GDP/double dip resession; price goes up.
USD - GDP normal reaction.
  • #310,329
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:22pm Apr 27, 2012 2:22pm
Quoting 853efx
lol, i just found out, there's still one small position running at BE on GU - will keep it alive over the week-end, just in case the old lady will drawn...
*drown - sry 4 my english
  • #310,330
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:23pm Apr 27, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting dobbie11
I really do not understand what everyone is bitching about . People saying there is market manipulation and they do not understand why the pound is going up. Well it is call a technical move and the fundamentals have very little to do with a technical move, that is why we see price retrace a little and then bounce right back up. I know you have looked at the long term chart as Nav has explained. But every thought he was crazy. Fact of the matter is he had to wait a while. But we are in a corrective pennant. Attached is the weekly chart. Target...
well said!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #310,331
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:26pm Apr 27, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I'm still holding my hedge from the 59 area, I doubt I will be making profit on my sells anytime soon or at all, but who knows right.
1.60 - 61 will be revisited in weekly retrace mode 90% sure but not yet appearing reasons.

be careful on that hedge!

good luck
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #310,332
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:32pm Apr 27, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting _BBKing_
1.60 - 61 will be revisited in weekly retrace mode 90% sure but not yet appearing reasons.

be careful on that hedge!

good luck
Thx BB, it's ok, it won't kill me even if I lose money on it that's trading. I liked the tech comment on last page, it is just lost on others I guess. Be careful on the AU strength bro, lots of talk here about a rate cut but by the USD is traveling, prob won't matter anyway.
Off to work, take care.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #310,333
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:35pm Apr 27, 2012 2:35pm
bro. . I am looking for 1.6040..... When the moooomment will come ??? Can any one say ?????? I am in a fix ... On this crazzzy friday
  • #310,334
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:35pm Apr 27, 2012 2:35pm
Lots of talk of manipulation over the last few days in this thread, and I wonder what the accusers mean - who do they think is doing the manipulating and for what purpose - is it malign maniulation of a criminal manipulation ? It appears that generally those in losing positions are doing the moanning or at least those facing a challenging time on their P&L. Some have reported bad losses and some being in drawdown by 33% from shorting this strong up move. Traders taking positions is not manipulation even traders from large institutions etc...in this case of gbp the Boe is aone of the least interventionist central banks and I doubt there has been any direct blind intervention in the fx market. Yes they have other tools such as monetary policy and Qe and and the bond markets etc but all in all it is very very unlikely that there has been any non-malign manipulation of price by participants in the rise. Buyers want the price to rise and sellers want it to fall there is nothing wrong with that.

Examining this up move from 5234 to present 6281 Hi...you can see on the Daily chart below there was a strong rise from said 5234 (point A to pouint B, ie nearly a 7 pip rise and the majority of it in 10 consecutive bullish Daily candles up from 5234. Price pulled back from point B to C rose again and fell to test the now previous swing lo zone around point B where it again found demand at point D breaking above point B to point E only tofall to point F rising to top of this now range -(the High) falling back to a HL and breaking out again to point F before falling back to another HL at point G, making a H at point H and then a L at point I - twice tested with 2 x HL's and a break out candle of the last LH at poiint K and then a breakout candle of the last HH (at point H) before the rise up to today's current Hi. Ie we had a strong rise - a period of consolidation and then clear signals both in overall price action-fractal peak/valley analysis and individual candle stick analysis on this daily t/f that the greater probability was skewed to price rising further and this greater probability played out - as the greater probability usually does (the clue is in the phrase 'greater probability.)

As has been said many times in thsi thread in recent days, it doesn't matter what our analysis is or howsoever it is derived or indeed what we think- if price action isn't confirming it - it is wrong - it is that simple.

All our analysis can tell us is what the greater probability is and our tech analysis of price can provide us with a bias to trade from..in this case -generally the long side.

Now, why has price risen so strongly ? well fundamentally there are a number of opinions and technically it is beacsue there have generally been more buyers than sellers - that's all we have to know as tech traders. Know the bias, work out the trend on t/f's of interest and if there is one present identify the potential pullback areas (sbr/rbs, fibs, trend lines) etc and see what price does if it pulls back and tests them.

I just wonder that if most of the participants bitching about manipluation had been on the winning side of the move - would they still think this is manipulation.
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ex member
  • #310,335
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:37pm Apr 27, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Thx BB, it's ok, it won't kill me even if I lose money on it that's trading. I liked the tech comment on last page, it is just lost on others I guess. Be careful on the AU strength bro, lots of talk here about a rate cut but by the USD is traveling, prob won't matter anyway.
Off to work, take care.
yes aud probably cut rates.
i hope!!!
so will be possible to buy the dip the following day/days

also to sell a possible top who knows?

anyway AUD will move big soon because things with crosspairs Gbp AUD EUR Aud etc now looks like are done.

first impulse will be up! indeed... took the sky like nothing in 2 days killed 0380 0430 0450 approaching 0500 just to relax. went insane today!

next week will be a great week in a lot of pairs.

i don't know if people noticed, but last 2 weeks and mostly this one were not that easy to trade until today.

have a good day!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #310,336
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:38pm Apr 27, 2012 2:38pm
Thanks but it is the only way to say it. i have been doing this for 8 yrs. first 3 and half lost my ass off , till I finally got it.

Quoting _BBKing_
well said!
  • #310,337
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:41pm Apr 27, 2012 2:41pm
Look at 4hr it was a classic opa uptrend now a general opa uptend all the way up since the 1st H followed 2 XHL. (opa = overall price action-fractal peak/valley analysis) Very often the pulklbacks have been to previous High zones (resistance becomes support) and/or fibs and/or trend lines -on 1hr/4hr - just a classic trending instrument with hi probability entry points.

G/L
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ex member
  • #310,338
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:42pm Apr 27, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting _BBKing_
yes aud probably cut rates.
i hope!!!
so will be possible to buy the dip the following day/days

also to sell a possible top who knows?

anyway AUD will move big soon because things with crosspairs Gbp AUD EUR Aud etc now looks like are done.

first impulse will be up! indeed... took the sky like nothing in 2 days killed 0380 0430 0450 approaching 0500 just to relax. went insane today!

next week will be a great week in a lot of pairs.

i don't know if people noticed, but last 2 weeks and mostly this one were not that easy to trade until...
Nice one, I understand now
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #310,339
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:46pm Apr 27, 2012 2:46pm
Quoting 853efx
i usually don't post on this forum, but i keep looking into it from time to time =) - u r the longterm trader as what i know - i like to trade swings of 89-276 pips only - and i don't care about the fundamentals at all i try to read charts only - and this time there's one hell of a divergence on GU - if USD really is going to weaken in a dramatic way, it has to test resistance on the USD index from below at least once...and that's where i c my chance to short this lady

u know i entered a hedge..i would love right now GU to tank to 1.5 or 1.4..it be the best thing ever t o happen for me with this trade id simply let go of the sell and buy the mofo back up..

however the charts arent bearish at all..infact GU i believe has bottom out ..lets see what happens next week..
  • #310,340
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:54pm Apr 27, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting bbmac
Lots of talk of manipulation over the last few days in this thread, and I wonder what the accusers mean - who do they think is doing the manipulating and for what purpose - is it malign maniulation of a criminal manipulation ? It appears that generally those in losing positions are doing the moanning or at least those facing a challenging time on their P&L. Some have reported bad losses and some being in drawdown by 33% from shorting this strong up move. Traders taking positions is not manipulation even traders from large institutions etc...in...
yes indeed is a total waste of brain, time, evergy, server space (lol) and many other things, trying to give a reasonable reason () about a move.
there is 2503045353,3 websites full of people arguing facts, like happening after a soccer match: "everyone knows it better than the player it self!"

you said it right: buyers want price to go higher! and they fueled this move in a very perfect upward trend (for example your point F in daily is a monthly pivot area left untested in the insane upward momentum) i would pay a fee to have always such a perfect market in all pairs every year. i mean both for down and up-move.

when price goes up (or down) then stall in 20pips range, simply to go more up (or down) it is not manipulation, it is simply because there is poor supply (or demand). and it is well shown in weekly charts!

problem wil be with indicators oscillators etc... because if price keep going up, they will say overbought for days n days n days, like when EU tanked down to 1.18 some years ago. stochastics, macd etc... were nearly a straight line in the bottom of chart
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
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