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EUR/CHF

  • #6,201
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:25am Apr 27, 2012 6:25am
Quoting worsttrader
imo most of traders goes bankrupt if they give up their current positions so normal trading cant develop this way. just think about it, there may be a lot of traders who used all the available margin which is not a wise thing, but well-known 'strategy'.

damn, as i finish this comment, we r below 2010. gorgeous.
For sure the market will attemp again to destroy the floor, the snb is not god.
They better think something fast
  • #6,202
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:25am Apr 27, 2012 6:25am
so far this is just a twitter news or it is a real one?
  • #6,203
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:25am Apr 27, 2012 6:25am
  • #6,204
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:27am Apr 27, 2012 6:27am
to me , this seems to be the time to buy
  • #6,205
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:28am Apr 27, 2012 6:28am
EUR/CHF trading at 1.20104 as I'm writing this - hopefully we get one final push to 1.2000 so the SNB can put their money where their mouths are...
  • #6,206
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:32am Apr 27, 2012 6:32am
Quoting tunera
For sure the market will attemp again to destroy the floor, the snb is not god.
They better think something fast
eehh, they dont give a f**k

they better not let this idiot to speak publicly again!
  • #6,207
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:41am Apr 27, 2012 6:41am
Quoting worsttrader
imo most of traders goes bankrupt if they give up their current positions so normal trading cant develop this way. just think about it, there may be a lot of traders who used all the available margin which is not a wise thing, but well-known 'strategy'.

damn, as i finish this comment, we r below 2010. gorgeous.
Do not understand. Why would someone go bankrupt closing his/her position?
Some would take a loss, thats right.
  • #6,208
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:45am Apr 27, 2012 6:45am
Quoting candeloro
Do not understand. Why would someone go bankrupt closing his/her position?
Some would take a loss, thats right.
just take me as an example. if i close now, i book a loss of 90% of my account. as a matter of fact, that means bankruptcy.
  • #6,209
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:48am Apr 27, 2012 6:48am
Quoting worsttrader
just take me as an example. if i close now, i book a loss of 90% of my account. as a matter of fact, that means bankruptcy.
Maybe bankruptcy of the account, but not bankruptcy of yourself... Don't panic just keep position open and relax. Eventually chf will fell and you will earn some money in 2-3 months.
  • #6,210
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:51am Apr 27, 2012 6:51am
Quoting druckerei
Maybe bankruptcy of the account, but not bankruptcy of yourself... Don't panic just keep position open and relax. Eventually chf will fell and you will earn some money in 2-3 months.
thanks, thats what i do since december and wont close the position, from this point i gotta say there is (almost) nothing to lose
  • #6,211
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:56am Apr 27, 2012 6:56am
Quoting worsttrader
eehh, they dont give a f**k

they better not let this idiot to speak publicly again!
Ahahah, you make my day
Yeah i see retail people are damn angry now, even in twitter the nervousness is palpable, we are waiting from many months some activity from this guys, they say they are ready to take further measures at any time, but they just joking with the market.
No way 9blns or 90blns is nothing, if the market decide to sell that shit with utmost determination the floor will be devasted.
  • #6,212
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:03am Apr 27, 2012 7:03am
Quoting tunera
Ahahah, you make my day
Yeah i see retail people are damn angry now, even in twitter the nervousness is palpable, we are waiting from many months some activity from this guys, they say they are ready to take further measures at any time, but they just joking with the market.
No way 9blns or 90blns is nothing, if the market decide to sell that shit with utmost determination the floor will be devasted.
What is "the market" waiting for? If they wanted they only need to trade it 1% lower to get all the S/L taken out.
Like I said before, the SNB does not want to reward gamblers with free money.
They will protect their economy and keep the price at 1,20.
There is just no need to push it to 1,21 if 1,20 is what they want at the moment.
  • #6,213
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:09am Apr 27, 2012 7:09am
Quoting candeloro
What is "the market" waiting for? If they wanted they only need to trade it 1% lower to get all the S/L taken out.
Like I said before, the SNB does not want to reward gamblers with free money.
They will protect their economy and keep the price at 1,20.
There is just no need to push it to 1,21 if 1,20 is what they want at the moment.
Just look at the chart, what is the market waiting for, the market is actually doing it slowly (due to the enourmous liquidity apported by the snb), of course i know that whatever happen chances that the floor will break seriously are pretty low, as even without snb the market is oversold now and hardly can fall, however i hope they manage to attack the floor seriously (break it big!) even for little time, just to force the snb to do something more.
I don't belive that price will stay in the 1.2010 1.2020 range for long time, of course is all a sea of opinions everybody have it's own one.
  • #6,214
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:12am Apr 27, 2012 7:12am
Quoting tunera
Just look at the chart, what is the market waiting for, the market is actually doing it slowly (due to the enourmous liquidity apported by the snb), of course i know that whatever happen chances that the floor will break seriously are pretty low, as even without snb the market is oversold now and hardly can fall, however i hope they manage to attack the floor seriously (break it big!) even for little time, just to force the snb to do something more.
I don't belive that price will stay in the 1.2010 1.2020 range for long time, of course is all a...
What you are saying does not make sense. I accept the basic opinion you have but tell me:
If you are the SNB, what would you do?
You would wait now, then let the PEG break and then have to fight all the stopp/losses that are hit to buy the market back to over 1.20?
Knowing that if the PEG breaks there are a lot of daytraders trying to short the market?
This would be your strategy as SNB??
  • #6,215
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:20am Apr 27, 2012 7:20am
Quoting tunera
i hope they manage to attack the floor seriously (break it big!) even for little time, just to force the snb to do something more.
if it happens (i do not see much chance of it) than they'll recover it to 1.20100 and say ooops, theres was another technical problem, sorry.

in fact there was a technical problem, they elected a donkey as a chairman...
  • #6,216
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:20am Apr 27, 2012 7:20am
Quoting candeloro
What you are saying does not make sense. I accept the basic opinion you have but tell me:
If you are the SNB, what would you do?
You would wait now, then let the PEG break and then have to fight all the stopp/losses that are hit to buy the market back to over 1.20?
Knowing that if the PEG breaks there are a lot of daytraders trying to short the market?
This would be your strategy as SNB??
No, if i would probably do what they are doing: nothing.
My point is, the market is not a static thing, is a "living entity".
Now, the snb is just staying in the sideline as long as it can, but the more time pass, the more the price get closer to the peg, so an intervention is just a matter of time (the snb will have to intervene or they will be overpowered by the selling pressure). That's why regardless of what happen, i remain long.
And yeah the 1.20 level will not be broken, the snb will intervene before this happen.
What i'm saying is that, actually the snb is just waiting to be forced to act, so in order to them to make something MORE, the market have to show his strenght and attack as strong as he can the floor, otherwise this pair can stay in this little range forever.
Of course nobody have the balls to short now because it can be a suicide, but if nobody attack the floor there will be no further actions, so..
It's a strange game, and after the speach of today that clearly shown no intention to make any effort more than the current defending strategy, i HOPE that some big guy (some hedgefund some bank some billionaire investor) would just try to break the floor with all his power, so we can finally see some evolution in this damn boring situation.
  • #6,217
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:26am Apr 27, 2012 7:26am
Something I don't understand is, that all those shorties have very small range to make profit on this level (there are only a few pips downwards to the peg which will be defended strictly by the SNB). On the other side short trades in EURCHF must be very expensive because Swaps are negative (FxPro -4,15 EUR per lot - and this broker is one which pays a very good positive Swap on longs: 2,37 EUR per lot). So waiting in short positions must drive you in bankruptcy I think...
  • #6,218
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:28am Apr 27, 2012 7:28am
Quoting Busenfreund
Something I don't understand is, that all those shorties have very small range to make profit on this level (there are only a few pips downwards to the peg which will be defended strictly by the SNB). On the other side short trades in EURCHF must be very expensive because Swaps are negative (FxPro -4,15 EUR per lot - and this broker is one which pays a very good positive Swap on longs: 2,37 EUR per lot). So waiting in short positions must drive you in bankruptcy I think...
u dont understand shorties?

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe. Albert Einstein.
  • #6,219
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:30am Apr 27, 2012 7:30am
They see improvements as we also see, and now wait and see mode cooling expectations.
Besides he mentioned in his speech that international partners has to accept the floor rate. Imagine now if they ask Mario on floor raise what would he say...

Still next cpi key, as he said deflation checked...Ill stay and hold the line
  • #6,220
  • Apr 27, 2012 7:35am Apr 27, 2012 7:35am
Quoting tunera
No, if i would probably do what they are doing: nothing.
My point is, the market is not a static thing, is a "living entity".
Now, the snb is just staying in the sideline as long as it can, but the more time pass, the more the price get closer to the peg, so an intervention is just a matter of time (the snb will have to intervene or they will be overpowered by the selling pressure). That's why regardless of what happen, i remain long.
And yeah the 1.20 level will not be broken, the snb will intervene before this happen.
What i'm saying is...
Who tells you that the SNB is not doing something?
Intervention does not mean that the price has to go up 2%
They could be buying from time to time at between 1.2010 and 1.2014 and sell at 1.2020 to make some money and keep the price in a narrow range.

They will act if price gets too close to the PEG but will make sure that gamblers are not overly rewarded on the other hand.
There are a lot of traders that get long when the price gets close to the PEG because they trust the SNB so that will help them, too.

Everybody frustrated now is frustrated because he thought it would give a free lunch. There is no free lunch in Forex!
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