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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #310,041
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:59pm Apr 26, 2012 12:59pm
I have a hunch that UK's gona be downgraded in the near future... for far too long Moody and Fitch's been quiet about the situation in UK but they cant hold their breath for too long specially when UK itself is showing poor economic circumstances...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #310,042
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:59pm Apr 26, 2012 12:59pm
so i bought usd/jpn - pretty low - possible decline to 79.50 - but exdpect rise to 82.00 then 83.31 and 84 - support at 80.29 should hold.
and

usd/cad good price now - although may goto 0.9720 - recovery to parity. medium term should send through 1.0656 (strong rally anticipated).
VB
  • #310,043
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:04pm Apr 26, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting Vikingbarde
so i bought usd/jpn - pretty low - possible decline to 79.50 - but exdpect rise to 82.00 then 83.31 and 84 - support at 80.29 should hold.
and

usd/cad good price now - although may goto 0.9720 - recovery to parity. medium term should send through 1.0656 (strong rally anticipated).
VB
dude... you better watch your ass... dont enter trade before BOJ policy meeting tomorrow.... you can easily get your ass burned... specially when BOJ may be thinking of a possible easing.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #310,044
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:07pm Apr 26, 2012 1:07pm
i will be looking to close my long http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smile...mileys-746.gif
  • #310,045
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:07pm Apr 26, 2012 1:07pm
BTW for those haters out there who think the Market is not manipulated.... Someone please use some technical sense and hit me with an explanation why EUR/CHF is sitting in a tight 5 pip range then all of a sudden Shoot down 50 pips down to 1.1999 the other day and back up above 1.20xx??
if that aint manipulation by the big boy then what is??
i bet charts told you it was gona fall when the damn chart was flat the entire time??

please, for whoever think that the market is not manipulated... Think again...

I'd love to hear from BBKing and Ill-b-back to explain why the EURCHF could hold still around 1.2 and a sudden fall of 50 pips to break that 1.2 barrier then shoot back to 1.20??

I know the reason why fundy wise but i wana read from these geniuses their explanation on this...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #310,046
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:12pm Apr 26, 2012 1:12pm
Quoting bguguen
dude... you better watch your ass... dont enter trade before BOJ policy meeting tomorrow.... you can easily get your ass burned... specially when BOJ may be thinking of a possible easing.....

and when that happens tonight....watch the USD rise...and the GBP falll....
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #310,047
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:14pm Apr 26, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Faller
and when that happens tonight....watch the USD rise...and the GBP falll....
Yea i dont see what the pound has to do in this....

even if the pound is merely related.... Yen easing would shoot USDJPY up and GBPJPY up... sooo yea both USD and GBP would benefit....
i'd love to see you explain why the GBP would fall if Yen eases
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #310,048
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:18pm Apr 26, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting bguguen
Yea i dont see what the pound has to do in this....

even if the pound is merely related.... Yen easing would shoot USDJPY up and GBPJPY up... sooo yea both USD and GBP would benefit....
i'd love to see you explain why the GBP would fall if Yen eases

Because I have been fortunate to catch the past two interventions and when the USDX spikes the way it does - trust me it affects the basket of currencies.....and GBP will be affected - also remember....GBP is in recession now....they will more the likely do some form of QE......hell if Japan has to ease and USA has to ease......do you not think UK will ease? It is just a matter of time.....they can't all ease at the same time......one at a time.....affect the currency they need to affect at that time.....then off to the next one....
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #310,049
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:20pm Apr 26, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting Faller
Because I have been fortunate to catch the past two interventions and when the USDX spikes the way it does - trust me it affects the basket of currencies.....and GBP will be affected - also remember....GBP is in recession now....they will more the likely do some form of QE......hell if Japan has to ease and USA has to ease......do you not think UK will ease? It is just a matter of time.....they can't all ease at the same time......one at a time.....affect the currency they need to affect at that time.....then off to the next one....
Good point on how world eases, and UK would follow... i agree, but we shall see....
the BOE has been rather busy with the GBPUSD lately...

BTW still waiting for the Genius minds to explain about how the EURCHF moves from the technical point of view LOL.... i dont think you can draw a fib retracement or any trendline to define its movements now that its stuck around 1.20
And some guys here still thinks that Theres no such thing as manipulation... bitch please... spare me
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #310,050
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:31pm Apr 26, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting bguguen
BTW for those haters out there who think the Market is not manipulated.... Someone please use some technical sense and hit me with an explanation why EUR/CHF is sitting in a tight 5 pip range then all of a sudden Shoot down 50 pips down to 1.1999 the other day and back up above 1.20xx??
if that aint manipulation by the big boy then what is??
i bet charts told you it was gona fall when the damn chart was flat the entire time??

please, for whoever think that the market is not manipulated... Think again...

I'd love to hear from BBKing and Ill-b-back...
Dear oh dear, as usual Bguguen, you have me confused. I have said on quite a number of occassional that I feel the currency market IS manipulated much to Smikesters dissapproval I am sure (my system thrives on it remember) or maybe you missed that post? When we shot up last week from 59, I said it again even though their was a fundi reason from Polzen or whoever it is. I merely disagree that market manipulation is the reason for your drawdown since 56. My Fundi reasons are clear to everyone by now I am sure, but maybe not you yet I guess. Oh well, back to the Guardian I suppose. Adios...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #310,051
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:35pm Apr 26, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Dear oh dear, as usual Bguguen, you have me confused. I have said on quite a number of occassional that I feel the currency market IS manipulated much to Smikesters dissapproval I am sure (my system thrives on it remember) or maybe you missed that post? When we shot up last week from 59, I said it again even though their was a fundi reason from Polzen or whoever it is. I merely disagree that market manipulation is the reason for your drawdown since 56. My Fundi reasons are clear to everyone by now I am sure, but maybe not you yet I guess. Oh well,...
Oh my bad... then must've been me mistaken someone else in this forum who said something about how manipulation in the GBPUSD cannot happen simply because its a market of 300billion usd flow per day??
i totally forgotten who that was....

and i agree 56 was a bad entry... but Nav does that time to time... doesnt mean we cant make money out of it, just means we got to be patient..
in fact i believe ever since 1.5850-5900 GBPUSD just didnt have any fundamental reason for it to go so high... the rally from 5800 onwards was full of rumors, and now even a poor UK economy data coming out the Pound still strengthens? i just think the rally from 1.5800 was unreal/manipulated
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #310,052
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:38pm Apr 26, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting bguguen
Oh my bad... then must've been me mistaken someone else in this forum who said something about how manipulation in the GBPUSD cannot happen simply because its a market of 300billion usd flow per day??
i totally forgotten who that was....

and i agree 56 was a bad entry... but Nav does that time to time... doesnt mean we cant make money out of it, just means we got to be patient..
in fact i believe ever since 1.5850-5900 GBPUSD just didnt have any fundamental reason for it to go so high... the rally from 5800 onwards was full of rumors, and now...
Yes that was bbmac, I'm sure we look, sound, text alike
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #310,053
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:38pm Apr 26, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting bguguen
... bitch please... spare me
Hey, you’re a Hong Kong national receiving an education within the UK… one could even assume within some form of private schooling. What’s with the American idiom?

Market behaviour: Central Bank intervention everywhere, race to the bottom for many a nation to improve exports. Forex traders at institutions engaging meaningfully in the market are thin on the ground at the moment, and so the volumes that we all see and struggle to trade within are casuing many a frustration.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #310,054
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:39pm Apr 26, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting bguguen
...
And some guys here still thinks that Theres no such thing as manipulation... bitch please... spare me
are you a poe?... i can never quite tell.
(although, the ad-hominem on people that don't agree with you does point to you not being one)

anyway, if you're not aware of the snb floor/peg... and that they openly and publicly spend billions, both in eur futures and eur forwards and have billions in resting orders at 1.20... which is not manipulation...(it's just that they're richer than all of us), then i suggest you do some research... real research, based on factual information.

as they say though - "opinions are like @$$holes, everyone's got one"
this'll be the last time i get my @$$ out in public...
Carpe Divitiae
  • #310,055
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:42pm Apr 26, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting bguguen
Oh my bad... then must've been me mistaken someone else in this forum who said something about how manipulation in the GBPUSD cannot happen simply because its a market of 300billion usd flow per day??
i totally forgotten who that was....

and i agree 56 was a bad entry... but Nav does that time to time... doesnt mean we cant make money out of it, just means we got to be patient..
in fact i believe ever since 1.5850-5900 GBPUSD just didnt have any fundamental reason for it to go so high... the rally from 5800 onwards was full of rumors, and now...
And I also recently said I believe you are a good trader and have no doubt you will make money, just please don't try to insult what little intelligence I have by drawing my attention solely to your balance to try and convince me of something I am already convinced on.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #310,056
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:47pm Apr 26, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting 45Condor
Hey, you’re a Hong Kong national receiving an education within the UK… one could even assume within some form of private schooling. What’s with the American idiom?

Market behaviour: Central Bank intervention everywhere, race to the bottom for many a nation to improve exports. Forex traders at institutions engaging meaningfully in the market are thin on the ground at the moment, and so the volumes that we all see and struggle to trade within are casuing many a frustration.
Yea im from Hong Kong... ironic though is that even if it was a British Colony, a lot of people from around the world said the Hong Kong students gets out of their local high school sounding like Americans... i wonder if that has to do with how Blockbuster films affects the teenage population of a country...
BTW my Uni is a Private Institute funded not by the Brits but a chain of University from the US... thats the reason why my UNI doesnt have an official ranking here in the Kingdoms...
I only use "Bitch please... Spare me..." cuz its so often said on TV, i found that idiom funny....

But yes... What we are experiencing is a very thin market, why well only the Central Banks are the players in the market... im pretty sure the Hedge fund guys the guy who owns maybe 25% of the forex market are not in the market at the moment... otherwise Price Action wouldnt act so weird lately....
its like GBPUSD is on a constant stream of caffeine but one could only take so much caffeine before they crash, the longer it doesnt crash, the harder,faster and more furious the crash in the end would be...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #310,057
  • Edited 2:01pm Apr 26, 2012 1:50pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting fsiltd
are you a poe?... i can never quite tell.
(although, the ad-hominem on people that don't agree with you does point to you not being one)

anyway, if you're not aware of the snb floor/peg... and that they openly and publicly spend billions, both in eur futures and eur forwards and have billions in resting orders at 1.20... which is not manipulation...(it's just that they're richer than all of us), then i suggest you do some research... real research, based on factual information.

as they say though - [i]"opinions...
BTW a PEG/price floor IS a manipulation... a manipulation being public doesnt mean it isnt manipulation my friend... Publicize has nothing to do with the fact the ACTION they took to PEG it is already a manipulation the fact they placed a PEG/Price Floor Restricts the Currency Pair to Move According to the Laws of Demand and Supply IS a force of manipulation... so you're wrong again there my friend...

Yea no need to educate me about the Peg on EURCHF dude... i holding longs at 1.2050 and 1.2020, but what i mean is... if EURCHF puts a peg at 1.20 which is sooooooo sooooo publicly known... why then have we seen EURCHF poke through 1.20 a week or so ago with a low of around 1.9989 or something like that?? and yet SNB said they are still holding the 1.20 barrier?? where did that move come from?? i sure as hell dont think a Trendline or a Fibo Retracement would explain that sort of move....
So if it aint Techical... what then?? Fundamental?? well we know fundie wise 1.20 is their peg... then what did we not know of that moved the EURCHF down beyond 1.20 for a short period of time??

BTW, dont be afraid to show your ass in public.... just be afraid of what people might do to it when they see it HAHA....

DING DING DING...MANIPULATION... now stop saying manipulation dont exist... not saying you but to everyone in this thread who thinks
otherwise....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #310,058
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:54pm Apr 26, 2012 1:54pm
...I'm off for a cup of tea and an hour of Robert Plant whilst digesting the nonsense printed in the 'pink un'. Have a good session everyone...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #310,059
  • Apr 26, 2012 2:03pm Apr 26, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting bguguen
Yea no need to educate me about the Peg on EURCHF dude... i holding longs at 1.2050 and 1.2020, but what i mean is... if EURCHF puts a peg at 1.20 which is sooooooo sooooo publicly known... why then have we seen EURCHF poke through 1.20 a week or so ago with a low of around 1.9989 or something like that?? and yet SNB said they are still holding the 1.20 barrier?? where did that move come from?? i sure as hell dont think a Trendline or a Fibo Retracement would explain that sort of move....
So if it aint Techical... what then?? Fundamental?? well...
Low liquidity. The SNB has said they will bust themselves to peg 1.2. Therefore no one wants to trade that pair = low liquidity. If a bank or government needs to buy some francs and no one is trading the pair, then they get a bad price. Then the price goes back again. It's that simple. If you traded shares you would get a better idea. Sometimes your penny shares will go up from 10p to 12p. 20% - Not bad if you have a few thousand pounds worth. Now try selling them? You need a market maker. He might only offer you 9p, even though they are listed at 12p. I know because I've been there. Now you can call that manipulation. Call it what you want. It's just a market.
Gone to a better place
  • #310,060
  • Apr 26, 2012 2:07pm Apr 26, 2012 2:07pm
Quoting smikester
Low liquidity. The SNB has said they will bust themselves to peg 1.2. Therefore no one wants to trade that pair = low liquidity. If a bank or government needs to buy some francs and no one is trading the pair, then they get a bad price. Then the price goes back again. It's that simple. If you traded shares you would get a better idea. Sometimes your penny shares will go up from 10p to 12p. 20% - Not bad if you have a few thousand pounds worth. Now try selling them? You need a market maker. He might only offer you 9p, even though they are listed...
Interesting and very correct indeed, i believe though that SNB was working with a couple of banks to hunt for the sell stop orders below 1.20 that time when EURCHF went below 1.20...
but yea im trying to define manipulation here and the fact SNB took the action to peg at 1.20 is already a manipulation... as per the bog standard definition form a dictionary...

1. To move, arrange, operate, or control by the hands or by mechanical means, especially in a skillful manner: She manipulated the lights to get just the effect she wanted.
2. To influence or manage shrewdly or deviously: He manipulated public opinion in his favor.
3. To tamper with or falsify for personal gain: tried to manipulate stock prices.
4. Medicine To handle and move in an examination or for therapeutic purposes: manipulate a joint; manipulate the position of a fetus during delivery.

the SNB peg at satisfy definitons 1,2 and 3 so yea... dont say the Peg is not a manipulation by the SNB....
as per the other guy said.... not you smike... i dont think you would disagree with me that a PEG even though its publicly known is a manipulation afterall
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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