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EUR/CHF

  • #6,121
  • Apr 25, 2012 9:37am Apr 25, 2012 9:37am
Fed holds rates, no QE3 announcement

Written by Adam Button
April 25, 2012 at 16:32 GMT

 

  1. FOMC keeps Fed funds target rate at 0-0.25%
  2. Lacker the lone dissenter again
  3. Economy ‘expanding moderately’
  4. Growth to stay moderate ‘then to pick up gradually’
  5. To keep rates exceptionally low at least through late 2014 (same as prior)
  6. No further comment about the end of Operation Twist
  7. Inflation has picked up somewhat mainly due to higher energy
  8. Despite signs of improvement, housing remains depressed

  • #6,122
  • Apr 25, 2012 10:04am Apr 25, 2012 10:04am
in the meantime,


ZURICH (Dow Jones)--An independent audit found that the wife of former Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand didn't breach any regulations that were in force while her husband was still in office, the central bank said Wednesday.

Hildebrand stepped down abruptly in January over controversial currency trades made by his wife in August last year, when the Swiss franc traded at a record high against the dollar and the euro, and shortly before the SNB moved aggressively to cap the franc's rise.

In the wake of the scandal, the central bank tightened regulations on own-account transactions made by members of its enlarged policy-making board.

Last month, the SNB's independent auditors said they didn't identify any activities which might suggest that financial transactions by Hildebrand, new SNB President Thomas Jordan and new Vice-President Jean-Pierre Danthine were in breach of regulations and guidelines in force before their latest revamp.


Ok good Hildebrand is a good guy
  • #6,123
  • Apr 25, 2012 10:54am Apr 25, 2012 10:54am
Cool.. Nothing will happen on the counter....today...
It's like playing BJ and everyone is waiting for Black Jack
  • #6,124
  • Apr 25, 2012 1:06pm Apr 25, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting tunera
in the meantime,


ZURICH (Dow Jones)--An independent audit found that the wife of former Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand didn't breach any regulations that were in force while her husband was still in office, the central bank said Wednesday.

Hildebrand stepped down abruptly in January over controversial currency trades made by his wife in August last year, when the Swiss franc traded at a record high against the dollar and the euro, and shortly before the SNB moved aggressively to cap the franc's rise.

In the wake of the...
He was my hero
  • #6,125
  • Apr 25, 2012 1:17pm Apr 25, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting Blue.Trader
He was my hero
He was my hero too, always ready to act without if and without but, first act, and then speak. He was like a switzerland version of Bernanke, a real leader.

Thank you Hildebrand, thank you for all you've done.
We will never forget you
Attached Image
  • #6,126
  • Apr 25, 2012 1:45pm Apr 25, 2012 1:45pm
its funny.

When Bernake speaks and he is hawkish and he says we dont have diflation, but infaltion, and FOMC members forecast rate hike, just because he answer to a quastion if it comes nessecary they will do more aggressive monetary policy, markets get excited.

When SNB talks that they are in deflation and they will defend the peg and they will act more if nessecary, market dont give a shit in that case.

Is all about of who is the one who is talking.
There shall be no QE3
  • #6,127
  • Apr 25, 2012 2:12pm Apr 25, 2012 2:12pm
Quoting Helloguys
its funny.

When Bernake speaks and he is hawkish and he says we dont have diflation, but infaltion, and FOMC members forecast rate hike, just because he answer to a quastion if it comes nessecary they will do more aggressive monetary policy, markets get excited.

When SNB talks that they are in deflation and they will defend the peg and they will act more if nessecary, market dont give a shit in that case.

Is all about of who is the one who is talking.
Yes, but mainly because the market is not stupid, he (all traders) know that when bernanke said something, then he also did it soon after.
On the other hand the snb repeat the same things from time to time, market used to get excited about it in the final quarter of 2011, many words but no facts.
So of course market don't give a shit anymore, this is about the snb credibility, you see maybe it's not completely lost, but is surely very low at the moment.
  • #6,128
  • Apr 25, 2012 2:37pm Apr 25, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting tunera
Yes, but mainly because the market is not stupid, he (all traders) know that when bernanke said something, then he also did it soon after.
On the other hand the snb repeat the same things from time to time, market used to get excited about it in the final quarter of 2011, many words but no facts.
So of course market don't give a shit anymore, this is about the snb credibility, you see maybe it's not completely lost, but is surely very low at the moment.
i get your point, but i disagree, in only one thing.

i believe that market is usually "stupid" and most times misjudges.

To my view a QE3 from FED is much more unlikely than SNB moves peg to 1,40.
Cause i dont know what SNB will do, but QE3 is quite clear that is not going to happen, unless the data changes and US go to deflation again. but market forgets that big if.

To all the others you said i agree with you.
But I always believe that market surely is not always clever.
and a good proof of that will be if QE3 never comes, and/or eurchf never break the peg and instead go higher.
There shall be no QE3
  • #6,129
  • Edited 11:50pm Apr 25, 2012 11:27pm | Edited 11:50pm
Anybody remember this movie? Watching this lifeless pair reminded me of it.

Attached Image


"Some lines shouldn't be crossed" - LOL
  • #6,130
  • Edited 12:26am Apr 26, 2012 12:07am | Edited 12:26am
This also comes to mind, starring Thomas Jordan!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pinocchio.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #6,131
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:12am Apr 26, 2012 12:12am
Quoting Fizzerr
This also comes to mind, starring Thomas "We expect the Franc to weaken" Jordan!

Attachment
"...the classic tale" lol
  • #6,132
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:42am Apr 26, 2012 12:42am
Olè! Finally some action
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf2.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #6,133
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:46am Apr 26, 2012 12:46am
Quoting tunera
Olè! Finally some action

We'll probably have some action tomorrow.
27.04.2012 10:00
Speeches, SNB General Meeting of Shareholders, Berne (with text)


10:00am CHF
KOF Economic Barometer
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif
0.260.08

10:00am CHF
KOF Economic Barometer
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif
0.260.08
  • #6,134
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:49am Apr 26, 2012 12:49am
Quoting rcrist
We'll probably have some action tomorrow.
27.04.2012 10:00
Speeches, SNB General Meeting of Shareholders, Berne (with text)


10:00am CHF
KOF Economic Barometer
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif
0.260.08

10:00am CHF
KOF Economic Barometer
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif...
Interesting! Speech + KOF in the same time, this could bring even 4-5 pips movement!!!
  • #6,135
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:04am Apr 26, 2012 1:04am
Quoting tunera
Olè! Finally some action
if 1.20135 as lowest point means action, than we r done
  • #6,136
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:25am Apr 26, 2012 1:25am
Quoting worsttrader
if 1.20135 as lowest point means action, than we r done
You said it, we're done!
We are the crazy people who buy a market that don't move at all, and wait for something to happen in the future.
  • #6,137
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:37am Apr 26, 2012 1:37am
Quoting tunera
Maybe we can see a move higher just before the meeting, like happened before. Good to take profits and leave this sh@#
haha
  • #6,138
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:41am Apr 26, 2012 1:41am
By the way, i was trying to understand why many people are reclutant to trade this pair as the fact that 80% of retails is long is a known thing.
Well i've observed the long-short ratio of retail trades on different markets (like gbpusd, eurusd, usdchf, usdcad, etc.), and effectively retail traders seems to be always on the wrong side, for example gbpusd retails are short (86% atm) on the pair from almost 10 days (of course they are wrong!), same for usdcad, retails are long from almost 10 days (90% atm!) and guess what, they are all wrong again.
Same in eurusd usdchf and every pair, so we can say that if we see retails buying something in mass, chances are that price will move in the opposite direction.
But it's not about make a statement, it's about understand why.
As far as i understood, retail traders simply lack of knowledge, and this bring them to see the market in a too-much simple way, for this reason they are uncapable to recognize the market-range changes, and get caught in a loosing perpetual spiral.
What we have to say, of course that this is not the case with eurchf (and also with gold and silver), i'm sure (100%) that if there was no snb making their statements about "utmost determination" "franc overvalued" "1.20 minimum acceptable rate" etc, if the snb didn't delivered this messages via the medias, the retails at this moment would be 90% net-short on the pair.
Instead, most are long, understanding the potential of the market, regardless of what the chart tell them, something like this can be observed in other markets also like gold and silver, where most of retail traders are long regardless on what happen to the chart (bearish patterns bearish breakout etc.), knowning that by the way such markets will never collapse, not at least for the next 5-10 years.
  • #6,139
  • Apr 26, 2012 2:21am Apr 26, 2012 2:21am
BAK

BASEL, Switzerland (Dow Jones)--The Swiss franc is forecast to weaken to CHF1.24 per euro by the end of the year and to CHF1.35 per euro by the end of 2013 as the economic recovery in the euro zone, and particularly in Germany and France, gathers momentum, according to the BAKBasel economic institute.

The Swiss National Bank's decision in September to limit the franc's appreciation to CHF1.20 versus the euro has taken some of the pressure off Swiss exporters, and helped the country skirt a recession in the past six months, said Alexis Bill-Koerber, senior economist at the BAK.

"We expect the upward pressure on the franc to ease in the second half of the year as the economy in Germany, the biggest market for Swiss exports, starts to expand, albeit it at a moderate rate, and as uncertainty about the global economy wanes," Bill-Koerber told a press conference Thursday.

The SNB has repeatedly pledged to defend its floor of CHF1.20 per euro with all means at its disposal as it tries to curb global investor demand for the franc, seen as a shelter from the debt crisis in the euro zone.

"Thanks to the massive liquidity injection of the European Central Bank and the expansion of the European rescue package, the risk of an escalation of the debt crisis has eased," said Bill-Koerber.

In addition, signs the U.S. economy, the world's biggest, is expanding, and the ongoing robust growth in the emerging market economies, should also help reduce demand for franc, BAK said.

These factors should also spur demand for the dollar, pushing USD/CHF up to 0.9600 by the end of this year and to 1.04 in 2013, it said.

-By Neil MacLucas, Dow Jones Newswires; +41 43 443 8046; [email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
  • #6,140
  • Apr 26, 2012 3:00am Apr 26, 2012 3:00am
BASEL, Switzerland (Dow Jones)--The strong Swiss franc still poses a major challenge for the Swiss economy, and is likely to trade around CHF1.20 per euro for a while yet, a senior Swiss economics ministry official said Thursday.

"The Swiss economy faces challenging times at the moment, with the ongoing euro-zone debt crisis and the strong franc," Marie-Gabrielle Ineichen-Fleisch, state secretary at the Swiss Economics Ministry, said during a press conference held by the BAKBasel economic institute.

BAKBasel earlier forecast a weakening of the franc to around CHF1.24 per euro by the end of the year as growth in Europe, particularly in Germany, picks up.

"It would be nice if the franc did weaken to CHF1.24 per euro, but the reality is that we'll probably have to live with it at CHF1.20 per euro for a while," said Ineichen-Fleisch.

The decision of the Swiss National Bank to set a floor for EUR/CHF at CHF1.20 versus the euro in September had been an important step in stabilizing the franc and providing relief to the country's exporters, she said
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