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EUR/CHF

  • #6,041
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:01am Apr 24, 2012 1:01am
Quoting multi888
Its gonna be better than expected....
wow you were way wrong...why did you make that declarative statement?
  • #6,042
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:04am Apr 24, 2012 1:04am
Quoting motokolo
much more worst, but nothing happen
well yeah not immediately.. this just puts that much more pressure on the snb to intervene.
  • #6,043
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:05am Apr 24, 2012 1:05am
Quoting Blayne
wow you were way wrong...why did you make that declarative statement?

Just a wild guess....this way I will feel better. It turns out worst than expected, good news for all of us.
  • #6,044
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:06am Apr 24, 2012 1:06am
Quoting Blayne
well yeah not immediately.. this just puts that much more pressure on the snb to intervene.

Instead of EURCHF spike up, EURUSD spike up...
  • #6,045
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:14am Apr 24, 2012 1:14am
Just to add, 12min ago another number from swiss:

CHF Exports (MoM) (MAR)
actual forecast previous
-2.5%1.0%12.0%

Don't know why FF didn't have, however hey looks interesting
  • #6,046
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:21am Apr 24, 2012 1:21am
Quoting multi888
Just a wild guess....this way I will feel better. It turns out worst than expected, good news for all of us.
I knew you were hedging
  • #6,047
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:25am Apr 24, 2012 1:25am
Quoting tunera
Just to add, 12min ago another number from swiss:

CHF Exports (MoM) (MAR)
actual forecast previous
-2.5%1.0%12.0%

Don't know why FF didn't have, however hey looks interesting
After seven months, growing deflation, really bad export data, clearly measures so far were not enough, Im sure they watching very closely. But maybe they wait one or two additional months for confirmation.
  • #6,048
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:26am Apr 24, 2012 1:26am
wow trade balance looking really ugly here. seems foreign demand for swiss goods are taking a huge toll thanks to the strong franc, and that doesn't bode well for their export-driven economy.

hopes this raises more domestic political pressure on thomas jordan and co to do something more rather than sit by at 1.2 with utmost determination...
  • #6,049
  • Apr 24, 2012 1:35am Apr 24, 2012 1:35am
Attached Image


I hear nothing, I see nothing, I know nothing!
  • #6,050
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:03am Apr 24, 2012 2:03am
patiente is virtue
just collect swaps and wait...
  • #6,051
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:21am Apr 24, 2012 2:21am
yesterday high taken out, good london session start..
  • #6,052
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:14am Apr 24, 2012 3:14am
Quoting Fizzerr
Attachment

I hear nothing, I see nothing, I know nothing!

Nice picture...
  • #6,053
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:21am Apr 24, 2012 3:21am
Quoting zoran22
patiente is virtue
just collect swaps and wait...
hope this opinion is not shared by the SNB directorate, however it looks like
  • #6,054
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:29am Apr 24, 2012 3:29am
Quoting MiG123
wow trade balance looking really ugly here. seems foreign demand for swiss goods are taking a huge toll thanks to the strong franc, and that doesn't bode well for their export-driven economy.

hopes this raises more domestic political pressure on thomas jordan and co to do something more rather than sit by at 1.2 with utmost determination...
It will be very interesting to hear Jordan's next speech, if he's at least toughen his verbal stance maybe with a direct hint to the floor raise.
  • #6,055
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:41am Apr 24, 2012 3:41am
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11506...or-policy.html

The Swiss trade balance dropped to 1.688 billion in March, well below analysts’ 3 billion expected level, as Swiss exports fell and imports rose. Seasonally adjusted real exports dropped 2.5% from February, as real imports were up 4.6%, according to a report from the Federal Customs Office.

The drop in exports comes at a time when the Swiss National Bank has been fighting off an exaggerated strengthening of the Swiss Franc. As economic signs have been worsening in Europe, traders are moving their money to the franc as a safe-haven. Worrying that that a rise in the cost of their currency would curb exports, the SNB has been buying Euros as part of an effort to create a 1.2000 floor in EUR/CHF. It could be suggested that today’s disappointing exports will only encourage their policy, maybe even lead to an elevation of the floor.

EUR/CHF did not move significantly on the news of decreased exports and remains in the consolidated range above 1.2000 and below 1.2034. EUR/USD dropped to new daily lows following the report, but remains in yesterday’s trading range.
  • #6,056
  • Apr 24, 2012 4:16am Apr 24, 2012 4:16am
Trade Balance figures are clearly bullish for the EURCHF; but it barely moves.

If you are long the EURCHF, the lack of any bounce shows that there are either 1)no big buyers stepping up 2) big sellers remain 3)or all the big sellers aren't traders or hedgies - since if that was the case, they would be backing off their offers to try and get a slightly higher price for their short sales.

I'm pinning my beliefs on option 3, the whole global CHF demand theory.
  • #6,057
  • Apr 24, 2012 4:24am Apr 24, 2012 4:24am
0822 GMT [Dow Jones] Watches buoy Swiss trade flows, says Credit Suisse, and they remain the most important pillar of export growth. "Most of the rest of the export categories posted declines in March, with machinery and electronics hardest hit by the weakness of euro-zone demand," says economist Bjoern Eberhardt. Still, "one positive note can be taken from the last two trade reports, namely that export prices were stable, indicating margin pressure on the Swiss export industry is currently not increasing, even though the EUR/CHF exchange rate remains only slightly above the floor of CHF1.20 per euro," he adds. EUR/CHF trades at 1.2019. ([email protected])
  • #6,058
  • Apr 24, 2012 4:35am Apr 24, 2012 4:35am
Inserted Video




(this video have no forecast intentions, just entertainment)
  • #6,059
  • Apr 24, 2012 4:43am Apr 24, 2012 4:43am
Quoting tunera
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Js2rS8FXB10



(this video have no forecast intentions, just entertainment)
Classic!!
  • #6,060
  • Apr 24, 2012 4:45am Apr 24, 2012 4:45am
One of my brokers changed daily EURCHF swap from 2.22 EUR/lot to 1.53 EUR/lot
The difference is probably going into their pockets from now on
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