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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #309,261
  • Apr 21, 2012 9:53am Apr 21, 2012 9:53am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post5596525
More on my Blog...
  • #309,262
  • Apr 21, 2012 10:03am Apr 21, 2012 10:03am
Quoting nAVIN2007
trading is about making a decision and having the nuts to face up to the responsibility of taking such an action..plan and simple
not euphoria follower
  • #309,263
  • Edited 10:59am Apr 21, 2012 10:39am | Edited 10:59am
I was reading some one else's gbpusd analysis here and I realised that my own analysis missed a desceding trend line which I have now added. It is shown in yellow on weekly chart below which shows all the other current unbreeched trend lines in play on this gbpusd pairing - in green. This trend line was in play at the Friday Hi and interested that previous Weekly/Daily swing hi zone to 6165 which is where the supply has been coming in recently and came @ Friday's/last week's Hi of 6148.

Of course other than joining obvious/significant fractal swing hi or lo's - there are no other real rules re trend lines and they can be somewhat subjective as to which ones may be importnat or not..but I believe of the classic ascending and descending trend lines currently in play on this pairing are on the weekly chart below.

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: prevailing trend lines.jpg Size: 111 KB
ex member
  • #309,264
  • Apr 21, 2012 10:40am Apr 21, 2012 10:40am
This chart shows how all week the retail traders kept shorting the pound, while the price just climbed. Over 82% short, so there has to be quite a very nervous traders this weekend. UK GDP this week forcast is for 0.1%, but the fundie traders tend to think it will be higher, because of the mild winter, which is huge in the UK as the whole country falls apart if it snows for more than 2 days. But same day as GDP is FOMC so you can expect some funky action. Shorts still have to be squeezed, and cable looks like it will be choppy again before that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: shorts.jpg Size: 77 KB
  • #309,265
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:03pm Apr 21, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting Flatfish
This chart shows how all week the retail traders kept shorting the pound, while the price just climbed. Over 82% short, so there has to be quite a very nervous traders this weekend. UK GDP this week forcast is for 0.1%, but the fundie traders tend to think it will be higher, because of the mild winter, which is huge in the UK as the whole country falls apart if it snows for more than 2 days. But same day as GDP is FOMC so you can expect some funky action. Shorts still have to be squeezed, and cable looks like it will be choppy again before...
Strange... im predicting a negative growth though probably in the lines of -0.1% to -0.5%...
im just not seeing economic growth in the UK.... unless the banks came up with some interesting revenue figures like the one Bank of America had last friday.... i just dont see how UK with their economy based highly on their banking sector could grow...
Do you mind explaining for a higher gdp growth?? im highly suspect of it... but surely interested to know and to learn if thats the case.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #309,266
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:09pm Apr 21, 2012 1:09pm
I need some recommendations. As the previous poster wrote there are quite a lot shorts on GBP/USD pair. I myself fall for the trap and placed two short orders (1.4 lots at 1.5978, then when pair still continued climbing took 2.1 lots at 1.6026 hoping for a retrace). I'm in 23% drawdown ($4108 down) on my 1:50 levereged US account and in a bit of a dilemma now.
Should I open a third trade (2.8 lots) at around 1.6120 when market opens on Sunday so I could close all 3 trades at break-even at around 1.6070 or should I wait out the storm with just the two trades?
Any recommendations are welcomed.
  • #309,267
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:16pm Apr 21, 2012 1:16pm
Well GDP forcasts were based on UK having another cold winter- huge transportation delays and lost working hours, but instead we have had mild weather, more people visiting garden centres and coffee shops than staying at home with the tv as expected. Everyone one knows figures are manipulated and with the Olympics this year, overstating GDP can easily be offset by revison next quarter. Its just how the guys choose to spin it- a bit of positive news now would give UK a boost- honest maybe not, but good GDP number to goose the pound up higher and persuade those stubborn shorts to quit. I don't know what the number will be but I know the pound is refusing to go down so some people are buying it and they sure as hell are not the retail traders.
  • #309,268
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:36pm Apr 21, 2012 1:36pm
You have to ask yourself are the banks that have got over 80% of the market caught short on cable, are they going to let them off the hook? Hell no -1.62 and those shorts are gone- their accounts blown, and more champagne for the boys in London. Give these guys half a chance to get one up on you and they take it. Buy wholesale sell retail. Quick moves this week trade light and nimble, market very nervous.
  • #309,269
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:45pm Apr 21, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting Flatfish
Well GDP forcasts were based on UK having another cold winter- huge transportation delays and lost working hours, but instead we have had mild weather, more people visiting garden centres and coffee shops than staying at home with the tv as expected. Everyone one knows figures are manipulated and with the Olympics this year, overstating GDP can easily be offset by revison next quarter. Its just how the guys choose to spin it- a bit of positive news now would give UK a boost- honest maybe not, but good GDP number to goose the pound up higher and...
Are you in UK?? the weather is terrible over the last quarter... given we've had 1 week or so of nice sunny weather.... the weather is still bad...
but yes i agree... i think there are plans to manipulate the GDP figure... but we'll see...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #309,270
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:48pm Apr 21, 2012 1:48pm
Quoting Flatfish
You have to ask yourself are the banks that have got over 80% of the market caught short on cable, are they going to let them off the hook? Hell no -1.62 and those shorts are gone- their accounts blown, and more champagne for the boys in London. Give these guys half a chance to get one up on you and they take it. Buy wholesale sell retail. Quick moves this week trade light and nimble, market very nervous.
well they're gona have to push GBP to 1.8 to blow my account.... i dare them
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #309,271
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:55pm Apr 21, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting bguguen
Are you in UK?? the weather is terrible over the last quarter... given we've had 1 week or so of nice sunny weather.... the weather is still bad...
but yes i agree... i think there are plans to manipulate the GDP figure... but we'll see...
It really hasn't been that bad. In fact where I am the weather was of summer quality throughout march and my school even allowed us to go on the school field (normally not allowed if there has been one drop of rain as they fear that we will tear it up).

Its definitely not bad enough to knock 0.5% like last winter but seeing retail sales were higher I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent print but either way I'm short against USD and JPY as I think there will be general risk off and GBP has largest to fall.

Jeremy
  • #309,272
  • Apr 21, 2012 2:11pm Apr 21, 2012 2:11pm
This sounds about right (I think):

GBP/USD rose to as high as 1.6149 last week and Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.6165 cluster resistance. Note that GBP/USD is building upside momentum again with the current rally and 1.6165 would likely be taken out. In such case, completion of decline from 1.6764 should be confirmed. And, stronger rally should be seen to 100% projection of 1.5234 to 1.5991 from 1.5602 at 1.6359 next
  • #309,273
  • Apr 21, 2012 2:52pm Apr 21, 2012 2:52pm
It's all eyes on Wednesday this week re Uk data with Q1 Gdp first estimate and ahead of that on Tuesday the Public Sector Borrowing figures. +0.1% is the forecast for the former with -0.3% last time re 4th Qtr 2011 that was revised down from an initial -0.2%. Two x consecutive qtrs of +0.1% or less is a technical recession although that has been diminuted over the years to 2 x consecutive qtr's of negative growth. Uk Govt will be hoping for at least +0.1% therefore. Any print of +0.3% and above will likely see some knee-jerk £ strength as it re-gains the lost ground of the 4th Qtr 2011. Conversely anything @ o% particularly any negative figure -0.1% or more will likely see some knee-jerk £ weakness.

G/L
ex member
  • #309,274
  • Apr 21, 2012 3:02pm Apr 21, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting bbmac
It's all eyes on Wednesday this week re Uk data with Q1 Gdp first estimate and ahead of that on Tuesday the Public Sector Borrowing figures. +0.1% is the forecast for the former with -0.3% last time re 4th Qtr 2011 that was revised down from an initial -0.2%. Two x consecutive qtrs of +0.1% or less is a technical recession although that has been diminuted over the years to 2 x consecutive qtr's of negative growth. Uk Govt will be hoping for at least +0.1% therefore. Any print of +0.3% and above will likely see some knee-jerk £ strength as...
A recession would crush the pound in a whipsaw of 200+ pips. The main reason for this is that the BoE would be under SO MUCH pressure to fix (Even though there is a liquidity trap and little can be done) that they may have to do QE just to please government and population.

I doubt we will see that but stranger things have happened. However this is prelim and will be revised so that may dampen any reaction for the meantime.

Next week I think the USD will be the driving force and not the GBP (as last week)

DX_F is on a VERY strong trendline and many USD pairs are at a key point so I see 1.60 / 130 being tested.
  • #309,275
  • Apr 21, 2012 4:45pm Apr 21, 2012 4:45pm
Hi there, You're saying If 1.5932 is not breached, then we could see a move back up to 1.6432 , breaking most of previous highs; ( to the bottom of the monthly cloud - sorry dont know what this means) .
Thanks
Vikingbarde
  • #309,276
  • Apr 21, 2012 5:13pm Apr 21, 2012 5:13pm
Hi, are you saying that it may rise to 1.6359 in the near future?



Quoting jmtini
This sounds about right (I think):

GBP/USD rose to as high as 1.6149 last week and Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.6165 cluster resistance. Note that GBP/USD is building upside momentum again with the current rally and 1.6165 would likely be taken out. In such case, completion of decline from 1.6764 should be confirmed. And, stronger rally should be seen to 100% projection of 1.5234 to 1.5991 from 1.5602 at 1.6359 next
  • #309,277
  • Apr 21, 2012 5:53pm Apr 21, 2012 5:53pm
Quoting bbakker
This morning was a classic example of why I left FF. Why am I posting here now?
Quoting bbakker

I do occassionally still look in the threads but all I see is bickering... pages full of it. All it does is dilute the posts from traders with great analytical skills and we are left with pages of drivel with the odd post that actually contributes in a positive way.

We all have differences of opinion but no one respects that because no one wants to be wrong.

To read the GU thread this morning led me to write my final post. It was of no great surprise...


Hi brian, sorry i missed you. I tried to reply to your pm albeit belatedly, but obviously you're gone.
All the best.
  • #309,278
  • Apr 21, 2012 6:06pm Apr 21, 2012 6:06pm
Long or Short?

Everyone is wondering...

We should not be gambling. This is a buisness be shrude, buy and sell a little at a time, be happy with small profits, when they come and if they don't add to your postions. Don't double up, reecipe for disaster, cable can move 400 pips without mercy. So be safe - safe enough to hold a psition even 600 pips against you, and wait for a retarce.

My opinion is we are now entering a new ranging area - between 16010 and 16500.

So it might be an idea to hedge buy and sell make money up and down, close all postions when satsfied with your profit level.

Good luck
  • #309,279
  • Apr 22, 2012 2:48am Apr 22, 2012 2:48am
Quoting bguguen
well they're gona have to push GBP to 1.8 to blow my account.... i dare them

I personally think whether has been great considering time of year..hasnt been the best with rain this week but it has been bright the weeks b4..definately people would have been happier and women likely to shop more

it can come in good and market definitely shaping up for a positive result
  • #309,280
  • Edited 3:42am Apr 22, 2012 2:50am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting jazzman

Hi brian, sorry i missed you. I tried to reply to your pm albeit belatedly, but obviously you're gone.
All the best.

he will be back i reckon he has a work project..at least he better we losing to many nice folks
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