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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #309,001
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:28pm Apr 19, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting Davit
In long term Yes shorting Cable is the right move however most traders can't afford to have their money tight up that long.
I was planning to hold out but my broker started charging me negative interest per day.Holding three weeks would of cost me a lot.
Hello Davit,

I thought about adding, 'Perhaps I'm trading on the wrong time frame.' I am not a institutional trader or a position trader. I wonder how many here are?

I understand the difficulty in holding short trades - negative interest charges are not fun.

Happy Trades,
fxstir

'In the next life, I want to come back as a central banker' - fxstir
  • #309,002
  • Apr 19, 2012 5:25pm Apr 19, 2012 5:25pm
Here is always an interesting chart. Notice how as the numbers of shorts grow the price climbs higher. Normally I would expect to see this number start to fall for a reversal as the shorts finally get stopped out. Anyway no short signal yet on the charts but possibly close. Will see what happens Friday.

http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...cal-positions#
  • #309,003
  • Edited Apr 20, 2012 6:18am Apr 19, 2012 5:26pm | Edited Apr 20, 2012 6:18am
See Suitable areas for end of wave 3 and I expect Corrective wave 4 will be formed soon .
  • #309,004
  • Apr 19, 2012 5:58pm Apr 19, 2012 5:58pm
Quoting corpo30
So butterfly is in formation. See attached pic for elaborated idea.
I have added a lot of profit in my account by this pattern: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/nirm...2/40562/218325
  • #309,005
  • Edited Apr 20, 2012 6:18am Apr 19, 2012 6:02pm | Edited Apr 20, 2012 6:18am
I expect prices to move toward desired goals in the medium term .
  • #309,006
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:23pm Apr 19, 2012 6:23pm
Quoting cambridge
We have all been in this. Don't panic.

We are in a bull market but the market always corrects it self.

My advise to you is, if your account is safe then take another sell position now and break even at 16010.

However allow for the market to continue up, and if it hits 16170 take another short - to close all positions at 16050.
It helps but if you make it your trading style you will wipe out your account one day, not today or tomorrow but one day for sure. May be after a couple of months, but you will wipe out for sure.
  • #309,007
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:37pm Apr 19, 2012 6:37pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
The last few days have the thread activity has grown. Before the super impulsive BULL move this week the thread was primarily filled with your run of the mill chit chat about economic fundamentals & spotty technical analysis. But the largely overwhelming focus of the thread BEFORE the BULL run seemed to center around ONE thing. Is Price heading up or down? It was the never ending great debate. We were all making our cases for bullish or bearish opinions. And at the time, one could make a fairly watertight analysis for each. Price resembled it's typical old self. Ebbing & flowing along in a manner that is consistent with the type of Price Action your likely to see on any given day. Then...It happened. Price became super impulsive topside. The move was deliberate and determined. Four days of it. And suddenly our thread is filled with folks debating. "Whens it gonna stop?" "Where's Price gonna turn around?" "Should I hold on to this short any longer?"

My point you might be asking. Well. I'm sure there are many here that could make my point much better that I. The point is much deeper than that. I wonder how many of us could look at our losses over this week and might find the majority if not all of them are Shorts? And if we could look further back. Maybe back to last Fri when the market Tanked. Might a look into the Account History statement reveal large losses were taken Buying a ONE sided market to the downside. I'll be the first to raise my hand. And if you took every trade you've ever made and reversed the variable BOUGHT or SOLD your account would be in the black as opposed to the red. SO. If it's that simple. Change it.

Learn to find the right side of the market. I know. Easier said than done. But make it rule #1 in your trade plan that you probably don't have. Drop the indicators . Immerse yourself in Price Action. Give yourself a chance. Anyone can press a button an put on a trade. Before you address When & How your going to enter the market Answer the question SHOULD I be in the market? & Will this be a BUY or SELL. It forces you to step back look at Multiple Longer TF's to determine your bias. Do yourself a favor next time & don't short the Bull run & don't spend all day picking a top.

Become an expert at: Wave Cycles, FIB Retracements & Expansions, MAJOR Support & Resistance, Accumulation & Distribution, Impulsive vs. Corrective, Price Patterns, Trend Lines & Pivots.. Then place your trades using Money Management principles. & You HAVE to have a Positive Risk/Reward ratio. Deal with the losses & move on. Live to trade another day. Sorry. But there's NO reason EVER to put it all on one trade OR to ever get a Margin Call. If your goin' there your backin' up. If your out of position cut it reassess. Overall Keep it Simple. Respect the folks here @ FF it's probably the best place around. Lot's of good people here that know their shit.

Most importantly cut the f**king computer off once in a while
  • #309,008
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:40pm Apr 19, 2012 6:40pm
I opened my trade @1.5969 thinking that the bullish trend is weakening, but it was only a bullish flag .
So, now i am facing 3 alternatives:
1. price returns, i am making profit/breakeven.....BUT i was only luck and a lot of prayers to Forex Divinity = > nothing constructive, very very unsustainable on long term
2. price is keep going up = > margin call
3. i close my trade, i lose 35% from my account (no money management, no stop loss, it was a simple revenge trade)....BUT i learn a valuable lesson, a painful one but maybe useful on long term

But losing money and accepting that you are wrong is very hard (
  • #309,009
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:20pm Apr 19, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting eggs
The last few days have the thread activity has grown. Before the super impulsive BULL move this week the thread was primarily filled with your run of the mill chit chat about economic fundamentals & spotty technical analysis. But the largely overwhelming focus of the thread BEFORE the BULL run seemed to center around ONE thing. Is Price heading up or down? It was the never ending great debate. We were all making our cases for bullish or bearish opinions. And at the time, one could make a fairly watertight analysis for each. Price resembled...
Yep, a dark horse for sure...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #309,010
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:44pm Apr 19, 2012 7:44pm
Quoting torex
I opened my trade @1.5969 thinking that the bullish trend is weakening, but it was only a bullish flag .
So, now i am facing 3 alternatives:
1. price returns, i am making profit/breakeven.....BUT i was only luck and a lot of prayers to Forex Divinity = > nothing constructive, very very unsustainable on long term
2. price is keep going up = > margin call
3. i close my trade, i lose 35% from my account (no money management, no stop loss, it was a simple revenge trade)....BUT i learn a valuable lesson, a painful one but maybe useful on long term...
Hi....keep smile, Loss, floating, stress, sad, happy, profit is part of the game....if you want to play with big lot and risk, collect profits and the accumulation can be used to play. You know.... i have 10 floating position at the moment....but i already calculate the worst and it will be my total profit accumulation for 2 weeks....i still have space on it.....if it move up more than 1.6100, i am not hesitate to do cut loss and start everything from beginning again (initial capital), collect profit and play big.....

I know..This is very bad money management.....but adrenalin always challenge me.....I hope i can stop this bad habit someday...

Saying learn is easy but how to do is another thing......

Good luck....
  • #309,011
  • Apr 19, 2012 8:17pm Apr 19, 2012 8:17pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting Ill-b-back
Yep, a dark horse for sure...

  • #309,012
  • Apr 19, 2012 8:36pm Apr 19, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting Erfan-FX
I expect prices to move toward desired goals in the medium term .
Funny how you draw some lines in the chart and claim price going through the roof.
Hold it! We got no realistic fundamentals to back up that chart you drew.
If anything Pound is wayyyyyyyyyyyyy overvalued and ripe to fall and fall very steeply.
England is nearing recession and US economy is showing some recovery.
How is that fit with your chart.
High points were 2011,2009,2007 etc.We are talking years back.Every move is unique so to predict price going up because that's what happened years past is credulous!
Economy,debt crises,EU issues are what is happening now and that's what drives the market! Charts only reflect the fundamentals.
I find it weird how one can just trade by seeing "butterflies" "head and shoulders" etc BS
I may be knew at this but this much I know economy drives the numbers! not the fking lines on the chart drawn from distant years!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #309,013
  • Apr 19, 2012 8:49pm Apr 19, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting Davit
Funny how you draw some lines in the chart and claim price going through the roof.
Hold it! We got no realistic fundamentals to back up that chart you drew.
If anything Pound is wayyyyyyyyyyyyy overvalued and ripe to fall and fall very steeply.
England is nearing recession and US economy is showing some recovery.
How is that fit with your chart.
Hi david....i agree with what it named fundamental, that's why i said cable absolutely funny for last two days....recession and crysis was described "perfectly" by the cable 300 pip bullish...
I think forex trading much more complicated than you thought, it is never can be traded easily, if media said it was crysis in europe and directly followed by drop of cable 500 pips, so many trader will get their profit...with the leverage 1:500, who the hell will pay their huge profit ....just remember in the term of bussiness each parties want to get their profit....full of trick also full of trap, just beware!!!

Regards
RA
  • #309,014
  • Apr 19, 2012 8:58pm Apr 19, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting Red Alert
Hi david....i agree with what it named fundamental, that's why i said cable absolutely funny for last two days....recession and crysis was described "perfectly" by the cable 300 pip bullish...
I think forex trading much more complicated than you thought, it is never can be traded easily, if media said it was crysis in europe and directly followed by drop of cable 500 pips, so many trader will get their profit...with the leverage 1:500, who the hell will pay their huge profit ....just remember in the term of bussiness each paties want to get their...
I agree with you.My margin is 50 to 1 so I am not worried.I just think fundamentals come 1st before charts.Charts reflect the fundamentals not other way around.
I know already that I prefer PA, Supply and demand then fking bogus head and shoulders,butterfly crap.
If trading was simply seeing insects and heads and shoulders we all would of become millionaires.
This baby is bloated goose.Just needs a little needle

As I am typing it dropped to 40 level. Hopefully London will not stomach tonight another bull drive.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #309,015
  • Apr 19, 2012 9:08pm Apr 19, 2012 9:08pm
Quoting Davit
Funny how you draw some lines in the chart and claim price going through the roof.
Hold it! We got no realistic fundamentals to back up that chart you drew.
If anything Pound is wayyyyyyyyyyyyy overvalued and ripe to fall and fall very steeply.
England is nearing recession and US economy is showing some recovery.
How is that fit with your chart.
High points were 2011,2009,2007 etc.We are talking years back.Every move is unique so to predict price going up because that's what happened years past is credulous!
Economy,debt crises,EU issues are...
I find it amazing that people take notice of a bank employed economist making market predictions freely available to the "MASSES" via the public media. Personally, when I am trading my own money in forex, I am not a proud man, I prefer a system that is quantifiable, easier to learn and accurate, that way I can control my risk, Speculator does this very well. Like BB King said, nearly everything can be screeming "sell", but if one this pops up that goes
against this, well.... Stick to your system mate, hold your shorts and
I wish you all the best, but think twice before judging something you clearly don't understand (you are new remember). If someone comes to me with advice and opens up by saying "I'm no expert but...) " I walk away. If you think America is recovering, I suggest you do your homework. $175 trillion of obligations is going to hurt them for quite a while.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #309,016
  • Apr 19, 2012 9:11pm Apr 19, 2012 9:11pm
Good day to you,

Will we trade back into the channel - or will there be relief from these levels?

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu101.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #309,017
  • Apr 19, 2012 9:16pm Apr 19, 2012 9:16pm
did u read carefully ? erfan said in medium term ?

there is always bear in bull and bull in bear

cheers....


Quoting Erfan-FX
I expect prices to move toward desired goals in the medium term .

Quoting Davit
Funny how you draw some lines in the chart and claim price going through the roof.
Hold it! We got no realistic fundamentals to back up that chart you drew.
If anything Pound is wayyyyyyyyyyyyy overvalued and ripe to fall and fall very steeply.
England is nearing recession and US economy is showing some recovery.
How is that fit with your chart.
High points were 2011,2009,2007 etc.We are talking years back.Every move is unique so to predict price going up because that's what happened years past is credulous!
Economy,debt crises,EU issues are...
not euphoria follower
  • #309,018
  • Edited 9:28pm Apr 19, 2012 9:16pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I find it amazing that people take notice of a bank employed economist making market predictions freely available to the "MASSES" via the public media. Personally, when I am trading my own money in forex, I am not a proud man, I prefer a system that is quantifiable, easier to learn and accurate, that way I can control my risk, Speculator does this very well. Like BB King said, nearly everything can be screeming "sell", but if one this pops up that goes
against this, well.... Stick to your system mate, hold your shorts and
I wish you all the...
Sorry I just got ticked off how that person boldly claimed "I expect prices to move toward desired goals in the medium term"
By drawing some lines based on PAST
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #309,019
  • Apr 19, 2012 9:22pm Apr 19, 2012 9:22pm
How on earth can people keep trashing tech traders when some of these people are hedging against their own fundamental biase in order to keep their account alive????????? or at least in profit?? Speaks of gross hypocrisy to me, maybe they should run for office.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #309,020
  • Apr 19, 2012 9:25pm Apr 19, 2012 9:25pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
How on earth can people keep trashing tech traders when some of these people are hedging against their own fundamental biase in order to keep their account alive????????? or at least in profit?? Speaks of gross hypocrisy to me, maybe they should run for office.
True.

Both TA as well as Fundamentals have their place. Choose your weapon.

Simples.

Regards
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