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EUR/CHF

  • #5,881
  • Apr 19, 2012 10:07am Apr 19, 2012 10:07am
DJones] Barclays Capital is looking to buy EUR/CHF dips to 1.20 for a test of the 1.2040-50 area. This range pretty much encapsulates trade for the last couple of weeks. EUR/CHF now at 1.2017.


(see what a discovery from MIG)

1228 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/CHF needs to close above 1.2070, says MIG Bank, to suggest a base is in place, a close above 1.2147 would be confirmation and call for a return to broken support at 1.2226. For now the cross is trapped between 1.2000 and 1.2040, and the bank says while 1.2050-1.2070 caps any recovery, it sees a risk of a break below 1.20. EUR/CHF now at 1.2020. ([email protected])

  • #5,882
  • Apr 19, 2012 10:23am Apr 19, 2012 10:23am
Quoting pipxster
DJones] Barclays Capital is looking to buy EUR/CHF dips to 1.20 for a test of the 1.2040-50 area. This range pretty much encapsulates trade for the last couple of weeks. EUR/CHF now at 1.2017.


(see what a discovery from MIG)

1228 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/CHF needs to close above 1.2070, says MIG Bank, to suggest a base is in place, a close above 1.2147 would be confirmation and call for a return to broken support at 1.2226. For now the cross is trapped between 1.2000 and 1.2040, and the bank says while 1.2050-1.2070 caps any recovery, it sees...
how bout they all just change their names to captain obvious bank...
  • #5,883
  • Apr 19, 2012 11:31am Apr 19, 2012 11:31am
Interestingly, eurchf is not the only market with low volatility, some reports say that the overall volatility in stock commodities and currencies is as its lowest point since 2007 (before the 2008 financial crisis), The whole market is accumulating and accumulating, chances are that a rise of the whole volatility can come in the near future, and finally some real trend would start.
  • #5,884
  • Apr 19, 2012 2:17pm Apr 19, 2012 2:17pm
Thursday, April 19, 2012

On the Swiss, the IMF and the G-20


There will be some drama, and few splashy headlines out of the G-20 meeting in D.C. this weekend. Europe is cracking up (again), and the IMF and big guns of the G-20 will spout about “expanded firewalls” and “global co-ordination” in the final communique Sunday evening. If we don’t get a big dose of “happy talk” then the markets will crap out.

A big agenda item for the weekend is the $400b capital raise for the IMF. There will be plenty of corridor conversations and side deals regarding which country puts up what, and what deals it gets for the money.

There are two sideshows of interest in the IMF's new money raise. The first is the USA; the second is Switzerland.

......
It will be an important weekend for Switzerland and its citizens. Every indication is that the Swiss will be big players in the IMF deal. As of this writing, the amount the Swiss are in for has not been revealed. The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, hinted at what the Swiss were willing to pony up when asked about the size. She responded:

"a considerable amount"


What does that mean?

Switzerland has a GDP of $0.6T. Based on the above information, it might be expected to commit about 2% of GDP, or approximately $12B. I suspect the amount will be much higher. The reason is that Switzerland has a mountain of reserves that it has accumulated on the backs of the EU countries. The Swiss have built up these reserves through years of currency intervention. Now it will pay the price that comes with an undervalued currency.

All of the big hitters from Switzerland will be in attendance this weekend. The President, Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf, the Minister of Economics Johann Schneider-Ammann, and the new boss at the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Thomas Jordan, will all be at the party. The big shots should be there, after all, they are about to give a large chunk of the country’s money away.


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FiYXrEOy7P...tersendcap.png

The side deals on the Swiss IMF participation should be interesting. What would the Swiss get in exchange for a giant check? One thing that will be up for discussion is the SNB’s currency peg. A month ago, the IMF blasted the SNB over the peg. My guess is that the criticism goes away if the Swiss write a check for $25 large. What a system…
  • #5,885
  • Apr 19, 2012 2:19pm Apr 19, 2012 2:19pm
[quote=daka;5591341
The side deals on the Swiss IMF participation should be interesting. What would the Swiss get in exchange for a giant check? One thing that will be up for discussion is the SNB’s currency peg. A month ago, the IMF blasted the SNB over the peg. My guess is that the criticism goes away if the Swiss write a check for $25 large. What a system…[/QUOTE]

Go Jordan go!!
  • #5,886
  • Apr 19, 2012 2:48pm Apr 19, 2012 2:48pm
I need this 1.2050
  • #5,887
  • Edited 3:41pm Apr 19, 2012 3:30pm | Edited 3:41pm
Quoting daka
Thursday, April 19, 2012

On the Swiss, the IMF and the G-20


There will be some drama, and few splashy headlines out of the G-20 meeting in D.C. this weekend. Europe is cracking up (again), and the IMF and big guns of the G-20 will spout about “expanded firewalls” and “global co-ordination” in the final communique Sunday evening. If we don’t get a big dose of “happy talk” then the markets will crap out.

A big agenda item for the weekend is the $400b capital raise for the IMF....

In fact as the introduction of the peg was discussed with ECB and probably with other (EU/German?) authorities.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...uro-franc-peg/

If that is true the potential raise of the peg should be discussed also. I bet the flexibility regards to the tax deal with ECB&Germany was in the basket at that time. Maybe the conclusion of the German (and later Austrian etc.) tax deal with the IMF cheque could be a part of a next deal for the possible peg raise?

Maybe this is what we're waiting for.
  • #5,888
  • Apr 19, 2012 3:48pm Apr 19, 2012 3:48pm
Today will be the first time in a while when the day's HL are both inside the previous days HL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #5,889
  • Apr 19, 2012 3:55pm Apr 19, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting pipxster
In fact as the introduction of the peg was discussed with ECB and probably with other (EU/German?) authorities.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...uro-franc-peg/

If that is true the potential raise of the peg should be discussed also. I bet the flexibility regards to the tax deal with ECB&Germany was in the basket at that time. Maybe the conclusion of the German (and later Austrian etc.) tax deal with the IMF cheque could be a part of a next deal for the possible peg raise?

Maybe...
The greatest way of act would be first raise the peg (tomorrow), and then give some cash to imf the day after, and say something like "take the money and shut up"
  • #5,890
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:13pm Apr 19, 2012 4:13pm
do u also have that strange move in the last 5 mins, jumping in 1 sec from 2020 to 2015 and back again?

http://i42.tinypic.com/14v2oeh.jpg
  • #5,891
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:22pm Apr 19, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting worsttrader
do u also have that strange move in the last 5 mins, jumping in 1 sec from 2020 to 2015 and back again?
Got it on saxo too despite usually they're less spikey.
Managed to close above 2020 on daily? Fantastic!
  • #5,892
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:25pm Apr 19, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting worsttrader
do u also have that strange move in the last 5 mins, jumping in 1 sec from 2020 to 2015 and back again?

http://i42.tinypic.com/14v2oeh.jpg
Fxcm was even 1.20119 b*&%!#ds!
  • #5,893
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:26pm Apr 19, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting pipxster
Fxcm was even 1.20119 b*&%!#ds!
:O

sounds weird...
  • #5,894
  • Apr 19, 2012 5:31pm Apr 19, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting pipxster
Fxcm was even 1.20119 b*&%!#ds!
The difference between FXCM (lowest : 1.20119) and another broker (lowest : 1.20173) on same time - 30 min charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: difference_btw_brokers.JPG Size: 129 KB
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #5,895
  • Apr 20, 2012 12:45am Apr 20, 2012 12:45am
Quoting tunera
There is only one person that can wake her up:


(Bulls, yeah)
He comes and say: don't worry, continue to sleep!!!
  • #5,896
  • Apr 20, 2012 1:49am Apr 20, 2012 1:49am
Quoting sonmeman
He comes and say: don't worry, continue to sleep!!!
and then he sleeps too!!!
  • #5,897
  • Apr 20, 2012 2:53am Apr 20, 2012 2:53am
Quoting sonmeman
and then he sleeps too!!!
and his 2 brothers, his supervising father, his governing grand father go to sleep too!!!
  • #5,898
  • Apr 20, 2012 3:29am Apr 20, 2012 3:29am
0824 GMT [Dow Jones] New SNB board won't lift EUR/CHF floor says Vontobel as Switzerland has a current account surplus at almost 15% of gross domestic product, and a burgeoning trade surplus. "So the SNB won't pay much attention to the complaints, which are growing ever quieter, about the strong franc from some sectors of the export industry and from labor unions," says economist Ralf Wiedenmann. "There's no point in lifting the floor to CHF1.25 or CHF1.30 per euro, as this would undermine the SNB's credibility in the market," he adds. Vontobel expects the SNB to keep the floor at CHF1.20 per euro as long as there's a risk of deflation in Switzerland. EUR/CHF at 1.2012. ([email protected])

Vontobel...lol
  • #5,899
  • Apr 20, 2012 3:31am Apr 20, 2012 3:31am
Quoting sonmeman
and his 2 brothers, his supervising father, his governing grand father go to sleep too!!!
You are watching a very excited film whose name is FAMILY SLEEPING. With very successful movie, we intend to show it in USA to get the OSCAR for 2 kinds: 1 OSCAR for the best foreign film, and the second for the best main Actor.
Beside this, in short term (about 4.5 months), we will produce the second film which is more excited than the first one. But we hesitate to name the film, we should call FAMILY SLEEPING 2 or SLEEPING HARD 2 (like the film DIE HARD 2), which one you prefer???
Come, watch, vote, enjoy………
BYE BYE !!!! music !!!
  • #5,900
  • Apr 20, 2012 3:54am Apr 20, 2012 3:54am
Quoting pipxster
0824 GMT [Dow Jones] New SNB board won't lift EUR/CHF floor says Vontobel as Switzerland has a current account surplus at almost 15% of gross domestic product, and a burgeoning trade surplus. "So the SNB won't pay much attention to the complaints, which are growing ever quieter, about the strong franc from some sectors of the export industry and from labor unions," says economist Ralf Wiedenmann. "There's no point in lifting the floor to CHF1.25 or CHF1.30 per euro, as this would undermine the SNB's credibility in the market," he adds. Vontobel...
Words rather strong, but it can be the truth
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