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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #308,961
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:17am Apr 19, 2012 6:17am
Quoting bguguen
Well the News is.... that claimant count droped to +3.6k and that unemployment in UK down by 0.1%...
problem is my suspicions on the increase in jobs are temporary in UK... possibly a manipulated figure...
With the Queens Diamond Jubilee and London 2012 Olympics...
The reason behind the increase in jobs i believe has something to do with the prospect of labor force having to work on sundays during queen jubilee and olympics... so for me i just dont see the jobs being that rosy.....
Well said and let me say more:
- core CPI higher than expected so mkt hopes that BoE looks to tightesn monetary policy ---> GBP positive
- LONG-time Monetary Policy Committee dove Adam Posen dropped his campaign for an immediate further increase in stimulus earlier this month, it emerged yesterday. MPC minutes add: "Moreover, persistently weak growth might impair the future supply capacity of the economy through hysteretic effects: that risk could be attenuated by a more aggressive loosening of policy in the near term. Should the possibility of inflation being above target in the medium term increase, the committee could subsequently withdraw some of the monetary stimulus."

This was bullish on GBP.
EURGBP selling to new long time low helped as well just look at the chart.

I expected otherwise and I still think this level of GBPUSD is almost a top for the year.
All market moves on news, regardless of direction will be faded sooner or later.


Seb
  • #308,962
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:17am Apr 19, 2012 6:17am
BTW.... probably interesting video for you....
GBP mentioned at 3:20 of the video
Trade recommendation is to short is as simple as the reasons for UK close to recession...
Like i mentioned time and time again... UK's GDP growth is dying without growth no reason to be a strong currency...
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84692528
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #308,963
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:23am Apr 19, 2012 6:23am
Quoting bguguen
BTW.... probably interesting video for you....
GBP mentioned at 3:20 of the video
Trade recommendation is to short is as simple as the reasons for UK close to recession...
Like i mentioned time and time again... UK's GDP growth is dying without growth no reason to be a strong currency...
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84692528
Well said again mate.

Seb
  • #308,964
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:24am Apr 19, 2012 6:24am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Well said and let me say more:
- core CPI higher than expected so mkt hopes that BoE looks to tightesn monetary policy ---> GBP positive
- LONG-time Monetary Policy Committee dove Adam Posen dropped his campaign for an immediate further increase in stimulus earlier this month, it emerged yesterday. MPC minutes add: "Moreover, persistently weak growth might impair the future supply capacity of the economy through hysteretic effects: that risk could be attenuated by a more aggressive loosening of policy in the near term. Should...
Thanks Seb, i totally agree... problem is a lot of traders here stick to technicals because its the easiest for them to learn, its quantifiable... while fundies you really need to have intuition and a clear understanding of whats going on... a 300 pips rally on the GBPUSD can still be a Stop hunt rally by the big boys behind the scene....

The Markets Usually Moves best when Technical and Fundamentals align, when its not... theres manipulation, manipulation however happens all the time without us noticing... and guess what the big boys do for manipulation... they disregard the news and move the markets according to technical, until the Fundamentals start to hit the fan or bite them in the ass will they decide enough is enough.... Then you see a 1000 pip crash in GBP over a week's time...
very classic movements....
Same goes with how EURUSD, GBPUSD all other currencies collapsed during 2008, simply cuz shit just hit the fan as the fundamental basis has been disregarded for far too long....
Just like a persons Credit Card Interest repayment... the more you disregard it the more its gona hurt in the future when it compounds....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #308,965
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:46am Apr 19, 2012 6:46am
What i can say about the cable the last two days is funny............ how come and look, where is it know......
  • #308,966
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:52am Apr 19, 2012 6:52am
Quoting Likerty
I'm shorting it too.. Few pips above or below resistance dues not mean much especially before major movers (Spanish auction in this case) but it gives very tight RR ratio!
Exited at 6014 with 36 pips, but was stoped out before -5 so 31 for all intrigue..
69
  • #308,967
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:58am Apr 19, 2012 6:58am
Quoting Red Alert
What i can say about the cable the last two days is funny............ how come and look, where is it know......
the bitch is crazy, she's a retard.
  • #308,968
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:02am Apr 19, 2012 7:02am
Quoting PoundTrader
the bitch is crazy, she's a retard.
GBPUSD is not the only thing thats crazy for UK...

To say the UK weather now as Volatile is already putting it lightly....
the weather is like different every hour here in London for the past 3 or so weeks now...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #308,969
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:07am Apr 19, 2012 7:07am
Wow look at this warning for those bullish on EUR/USD...
Italy and Spanish looking scary now...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...ns-Moodys.html

PS... OMG i didnt know the country i come from was so sustainable....
OMG i love Hong Kong... actually i think i read somewhere that Hong Kong surpassed US and UK in economic performance over the last 3 years
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #308,970
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:18am Apr 19, 2012 7:18am
Quoting bguguen
Congrats nav... seems like ur 1.61 target is becoming ever so true by day...
but i still dont see why the GBP can be this strong....
with analysts already forcasting a negative growth in the next quarter....
dont get me wrong.. but i often like to have a move justified by an underlying new that supports it...
Yes congrats Nav. The point being he still made a terrible trade months ago which effectively froze his account until recently. Or are we still waiting for 1.65 to break even?

Now Navin's offering me advice on how I should analyse the monthly! Thanks navin. Just thought I'd get that off my chest.

La la la, ....
Gone to a better place
  • #308,971
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:20am Apr 19, 2012 7:20am
Quoting PoundTrader
the bitch is crazy, she's a retard.
absolutely, take it easy mate...it will be million of better position, forget this crazy bitch, and you will make it better .....

I've seen long recersal candle in 4H time frame, may be it is telling something......
Good luck mate....
  • #308,972
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:23am Apr 19, 2012 7:23am
Quoting nAVIN2007
that price is nothing..i totally expect to see it again..can u explain what the hell that figure actually means and perhaps why cable shoot up with the fundy news..

i have no idea but would love to here yur take on it
Mortgage approvals also up 20% and Rightmove HPI surpassed forecasts. 3.5% in 1 month.
Gone to a better place
  • #308,973
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:24am Apr 19, 2012 7:24am
Quoting smikester
Mortgage approvals also up 20% and Rightmove HPI surpassed forecasts. 3.5% in 1 month.
This is beneficial for US i believe...
Up mortgage approvals in US that would definitely help speed up the Housing Market Recovery....

If thats the case then.... that would give US a reason to create longer term jobs for Long term housing constructions....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #308,974
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:39am Apr 19, 2012 7:39am
Quoting bguguen
This is beneficial for US i believe...
Up mortgage approvals in US that would definitely help speed up the Housing Market Recovery....

If thats the case then.... that would give US a reason to create longer term jobs for Long term housing constructions....
Sorry, this is UK data.
Gone to a better place
  • #308,975
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:40am Apr 19, 2012 7:40am
Quoting Red Alert
absolutely, take it easy mate...it will be million of better position, forget this crazy bitch, and you will make it better .....

I've seen long recersal candle in 4H time frame, may be it is telling something......
Good luck mate....
, im taking profit at 1.5938
  • #308,976
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:43am Apr 19, 2012 7:43am
Quoting smikester
Sorry, this is UK data.
my bad but im still not happy with UK... Europe is underpinning them
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #308,977
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:44am Apr 19, 2012 7:44am
Quoting PoundTrader
, im taking profit at 1.5938
change that to 1.5978 and calling it a week
  • #308,978
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:57am Apr 19, 2012 7:57am
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/bgug...-adryfx/260406
Made a bit of loss today on my auto bot... but im still up 4% this week and the week's not over
Weekly target is 5% sooo good stufff good stuff...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #308,979
  • Apr 19, 2012 8:04am Apr 19, 2012 8:04am
Quoting PoundTrader
change that to 1.5978 and calling it a week
good, it is better, we can't expect something too far since the main trend is strongly bullish......5978 is exzactly at fib 38.2....

But just beware bad data of US unemployment rate seems like react to cable now mate....
  • #308,980
  • Apr 19, 2012 8:16am Apr 19, 2012 8:16am
Quoting bguguen
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/bgug...-adryfx/260406
Made a bit of loss today on my auto bot... but im still up 4% this week and the week's not over
Weekly target is 5% sooo good stufff good stuff...
Good day to you,

Good results. 5% per week - hell even 2% per week - consistently, is excellent. Compounding comes to mind...

Well done

Regards
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