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EUR/CHF

  • #5,841
  • Apr 18, 2012 8:12am Apr 18, 2012 8:12am
coolcaps every coin has to sides
negative yields of swiss gov bonds are sign that real money looking to buy francs, but also is a sign of coming deflation that swiss economy cannot afford
There shall be no QE3
  • #5,842
  • Apr 18, 2012 8:22am Apr 18, 2012 8:22am
Quoting Helloguys
coolcaps every coin has to sides
negative yields of swiss gov bonds are sign that real money looking to buy francs, but also is a sign of coming deflation that swiss economy cannot afford
True.. But no deflation so far.. infact inflation last month was around 0.9% and it may deflates in next 7-9 months.. at this franc rate so how many messages before that about peg..
EURCHF back to where it was and will make base here...spike wasn't even big even..
  • #5,843
  • Apr 18, 2012 8:23am Apr 18, 2012 8:23am
Quoting coolkaps4u
True.. But no deflation so far.. infact inflation last month was around 0.9% and it may deflates in next 7-9 months.. at this franc rate so how many messages before that about peg..
EURCHF back to where it was and will make base here...spike wasn't even big even..

wasnt year on year inflation minus 1%
  • #5,844
  • Apr 18, 2012 8:24am Apr 18, 2012 8:24am
agree wholeheartedly; part of my thinking as well. Risk is limited and even if it does go down another 500 pips, I will hold

Quoting Mishko212
It took a long time (from a day trader's perspective) for USD/JPY to finally move up, but it did. The most important things with this pair are:

Peg and +swap

I was thinking (considering that most likely EUR/CHF will be at 1.25 level within 6 months and that I bought it right above the Peg (1.2020), if I use same amount of money that I currently use to hold long ($300,000 position), for day trade I would really have to get lucky (or smart) to make the same profit comparing to just waiting with very little risk of losing (if Peg breaks)
  • #5,845
  • Apr 18, 2012 8:36am Apr 18, 2012 8:36am
Quoting pipxster
for me is simple as is:

Q:what is the monetary policy of SNB
A:inflation targeting (no double mandate like FED!)

Q:what is the inflation target of SNB
A:2%

Q:what is the current YoY inflation in SwLand (MoM is full of seasonal elements)?
A:-1%

Q:accelerating ?
A:yes, each month (since the introduction of the famous "peg" - see chart below)

Q:what measurements elaborated the responsible authority (SNB) so far to reach the inflation target?
A:NOTHING
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png Size: 18 KB
  • #5,846
  • Apr 18, 2012 8:45am Apr 18, 2012 8:45am
"Starting in Asia, the BoJ Deputy Gov said in essence they will print as much yen as possible to get to their inflation target when he said this morning that they will “do powerful easing to achieve 1% inflation…if needed.

...The yen is lower and the Nikkei rallied 2% following the comments. "

Their target only 1% not 2% like Swiss

We sould collect some money for a Zurich-Tokyo ticket.
  • #5,847
  • Apr 18, 2012 8:53am Apr 18, 2012 8:53am
Quoting pipxster
Attachment
Japan has set a target for inflation as they are fighting from years..
They responded also

SNB has not set a target as in target ..they were below zero many time for more than 6+ months also without any responsive teeths

They will respond when economic indicators points that the economy is doing bad.. because of 1.20 cap.. market is much better than it was 8-10 months back so seeing back economy and industries doing much better.

SNB data don't lie and they have no reason whatsoever to intervene at this point. They will do if economy required..
  • #5,848
  • Apr 18, 2012 9:01am Apr 18, 2012 9:01am
Quoting coolkaps4u
Japan has set a target for inflation as they are fighting from years..
They responded also

SNB has not set a target as in target ..they were below zero many time for more than 6+ months also without any responsive teeths

They will respond when economic indicators points that the economy is doing bad.. because of 1.20 cap.. market is much better than it was 8-10 months back so seeing back economy and industries doing much better.

SNB data don't lie and they have no reason whatsoever to intervene at this point. They will do if economy required.....

I see an indirect 2% target.

http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/monpol/id/monpol_strat/13

Review of monetary policy based on inflation forecast

If the inflation forecast indicates a deviation from the range of price stability, an adjustment of monetary policy could prove necessary. Should inflation threaten to exceed 2% on a longer-term basis, the SNB would thus consider tightening its monetary policy. Conversely, it would tend towards relaxation if there were a threat of deflation.

The SNB does not react mechanically to its inflation forecast. It also takes account of the general economic situation in its monetary policy decisions. If inflation temporarily exceeds the 2% ceiling as a result of one-off factors, such as a sudden surge in oil prices or strong exchange rate fluctuations, monetary policy does not necessarily need to be adjusted. The same applies to short-lived deflationary pressures.

Q: 6-7 months of accelerating deflation short-lived?
A: ?????
  • #5,849
  • Apr 18, 2012 9:27am Apr 18, 2012 9:27am
what about that conference at 14:15 gmt?
  • #5,850
  • Apr 18, 2012 9:36am Apr 18, 2012 9:36am
Break, break (take a break!).
Today was a great day, the gap on the snb management has been filled, with a PERFECT timing, i start to understand how snb work, swiss rulez.
This is a great day for bulls, hold the line as always.
  • #5,851
  • Apr 18, 2012 9:44am Apr 18, 2012 9:44am
Quoting zoran22
what about that conference at 14:15 gmt?
It was 2.15CET, comments are above in this thread
  • #5,852
  • Apr 18, 2012 9:56am Apr 18, 2012 9:56am
Quoting tunera
Break, break (take a break!).
Inserted Video
  • #5,853
  • Apr 18, 2012 10:35am Apr 18, 2012 10:35am
You will hear soon from SNB
CHF already weaken against other currencies so there strategy is working

see GBD/CHF,CAD/CHF and other majors.. CHF weakening against other majors and SNB is diversfying in CAD,GBD,AUD so they are doing good job

I am long CAD CHF and waiting for peg break.
  • #5,854
  • Apr 18, 2012 11:31am Apr 18, 2012 11:31am
Quoting coolkaps4u
You will hear soon from SNB
CHF already weaken against other currencies so there strategy is working

see GBD/CHF,CAD/CHF and other majors.. CHF weakening against other majors and SNB is diversfying in CAD,GBD,AUD so they are doing good job

I am long CAD CHF and waiting for peg break.
chf last hours is gaining vs AUD and CAD. but also euro is strong vs commodity currencies last hours, and pound today has a good hawkish day. looks like more a weakness of commodity currencies than chf strength
There shall be no QE3
  • #5,855
  • Apr 18, 2012 12:25pm Apr 18, 2012 12:25pm
MACD might generate a bullish signal on the daily the next days...
RSI in an uptrend with resistence at 48... (currently 44).
think we might go towords 1.2050. Supported also from good news from SNB which took out some uncertainty from the markets.
happy trading!
  • #5,856
  • Apr 18, 2012 2:38pm Apr 18, 2012 2:38pm
I think we can go to sleep now for 2-3 weeks
  • #5,857
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:11pm Apr 18, 2012 3:11pm
From http://dailyreckoning.com/debt-sinks-currency-rally/

I saw a report this morning that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was in the market “checking rates.” But no sign of intervention yet. For any of you new to class or maybe missed class the dozen times I’ve talked about this, here you go.

The SNB set a floor for its cross to the euro at 1.20. The SNB would love really to have the cross be as weak as 1.35. The markets are testing the SNB’s resolve by pushing the euro/franc cross to 1.2015. If the SNB is as tough as they say they are, they will most likely sell francs and buy euros to weaken the cross.

“Checking rates” can mean two things: 1. that the SNB is just trying to see if they can get the markets to move without them really having to do so (a form of jawboning) or 2. this is the first step of intervention. This would ready the markets so they could get all their trading partners lined up for a round of intervention, for if a central bank were going to intervene, they had better come in with both guns a-blazin’! Then it would be the markets’ turn to see if they want to make the SNB eat crow.

But maybe we should just check with the former SNB governor’s wife. She probably has her trades all lined up to take advantage of any SNB action. HA!
  • #5,858
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:29pm Apr 18, 2012 4:29pm
i feel that the market is a lil bit disappointed because of the underdeveloped peg raising. just take a look at the candle, if it countinues falling it'll be red at the end of the day.
  • #5,859
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:39pm Apr 18, 2012 4:39pm
Now comes total annihilation, no rection to news, no rumors (ok sometimes SNB will check rates) and a worthless chart.The real long march.

Maybe at the end our only hope will be S.Mario who could step on the last years Trichet path and grant us a rate hike in the big fear of inflation.
  • #5,860
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:46pm Apr 18, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting dfabrizi
MACD might generate a bullish signal on the daily the next days...
RSI in an uptrend with resistence at 48... (currently 44).
think we might go towords 1.2050. Supported also from good news from SNB which took out some uncertainty from the markets.
happy trading!
Got bearish sentiment on Echf? Tp/sl? Interesting...
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