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Extreme TMA System

  • #9,301
  • Edited 10:56pm Apr 17, 2012 10:53pm | Edited 10:56pm
Quoting imbonitore
Writer of this text perfectly knows where is going forex market. The writer is one of the best traders in the world for 20 years. His real account is about 3 billion euros...All these years I follow his work and never go wrong. In the short term to some unforeseen things happen, but never a long term mistake. Do you think that the USD has a future? and if you have a future, what investors, but large investors wants invest in usd (interest rates at 0%!!!!) I dont think so....
euro must not fall ... And if the whole world will be buying the euro in...
Although I am out of my depth here, there are a few things that might be worth pointing out. First let me say that much of what you say is, in my opinion, insightful.

I tend to agree that it is often an oversight of short term traders to ignore what big money is doing, and that it is important to have an idea of who is on the other side of your trade.

The big money moves the markets, but even the big money can make mistakes, or act in a confused manner. Nobody is perfect, and nobody predicts perfectly, all the time.

You can have a very long run, as Bill Gross has had at Pimco, or Warren Buffett has had, but eventually, something will cause you to make a mistake. Look at John Paulson, George Soros, and others that trade many times 3 billion euros, and eventually make mistakes, especially in predicting the future.

It is a truism of the market that past performance does not insure future results.

>"The writer is one of the best traders in the world for 20 years."

Long term success can make a person intrenched and hidebound in their approach to the market, tending to make him do exactly what he as done so successfully over the last 20 years. This is especially true when the fundamentals change radically from what they had been for the last 20 years.

>"His real account is about 3 billion euros..." Once the bond vigillantes drive the price of borrowing for deficit governments through the roof, the big money may suddenly decide to shorten its long term horizon, or pay the consequences. Could TOR and other large investors be counting on the central banks to backstop the ongoing debt crisis in perpetuity as the BOJ has done in Japan? Europe is not Japan.

A quote from this article "Bernanke And Germany Wake Up To A Merda Storm" republished in Phil's Stock World,
http://www.philstockworld.com/2012/0...a-merda-storm/

"Other clues: the increasing sound and fury from money managers who went along for the ride and now realize this constant central bank exposure doesn't work. First, Barton Biggs washed his hands of it this week, then Michael Steinhardt and Pimco's El-Erian..."

These are definitely big money players, going in the opposite direction to TOR.

As far as defending the USD, I have to agree that it is unappealing as an investment vehicle, but during the 2008 liquidity crisis where did all the money flow to? Where did TOR put his money, BTW? Just curious.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #9,302
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:15pm Apr 17, 2012 11:15pm
Quoting Ever E. Man
...
"Other clues: the increasing sound and fury from money managers who went along for the ride and now realize this constant central bank exposure doesn't work. First, Barton Biggs washed his hands of it this week, then Michael Steinhardt and Pimco's El-Erian..."...
Another article that sums up the crisis in Europe:
"War For Spain"
http://www.philstockworld.com/2012/0...war-for-spain/

'Yet Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has warned that the situation has created "a vicious circle that strangles Spain."

Rajoy delivered a strongly worded speech to parliament, insisting that it was "as clear as day" that Spain would not need a Greek-style bailout. But in recognition that the country is losing market confidence, he appealed to other European leaders to be "careful with their comments" and remember that "what is good for Spain is good for the eurozone." (The London Telegraph)'

I cannot see how "what is good for Spain is good for the EZ" can be true, when another country will have to foot the bill - Germany. Neither the Spanish, nor the Germans, are going to be happy with this situation, surely. This is the wedge that will either split the Eurozone into parts, or force everyone in the EZ to behave like Germans. It seems likely that it is impossible to behave like a German for very long if you are not one already.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #9,303
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:34pm Apr 17, 2012 11:34pm
Quoting slowpokeyjoe
I have taken the Table of Contents and merged them with the .pdf document developed by flaw & outlined by Riddermark ...

...guys like it, hate it, want me to do the same with the other volumes? I would love to put together a .pdf for specific subjects, like Recovery, or Breathing System.

Thanks to flaw and Riddermark for your work on these documents.

Gina
Hello Gina,

I like the new look. If you could add 'Return to top' links after each post and block the titles of each post so that the second line (if there is one) lines up under the first, I think that would add to the effect?

I notice that Flaw and Riddermark have both posted, in the past couple of days, updated documents. It would be nice if all of you could coordinate your activities so that minimal effort brings maximum results?!

Good luck with your endeavors.

Regards,
-Frank
  • #9,304
  • Apr 18, 2012 1:54am Apr 18, 2012 1:54am
Quoting Markillo
AL, are you still short in AUDUSD???
Yes.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,305
  • Apr 18, 2012 1:57am Apr 18, 2012 1:57am
Quoting tomthepoppop
To answer your question - I do not use stop loss - ever
I only use recovery and so far it is working flawlessly both on demo and live trading. I am pretty careful on the trades I take and the market conditions have been pretty good so far and the trades that have gone against me have all 100% come back for a break even or slight profit. Before Al pointed out the recovery system I was using stop loss and was loosing - not any more.

Tom
Recovery works. You just have to keep your positions small relative to account size (4% to 6%).
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,306
  • Apr 18, 2012 2:04am Apr 18, 2012 2:04am
Quoting Ever E. Man
Although I am out of my depth here, there are a few things that might be worth pointing out. First let me say that much of what you say is, in my opinion, insightful.

I tend to agree that it is often an oversight of short term traders to ignore what big money is doing, and that it is important to have an idea of who is on the other side of your trade.

The big money moves the markets, but even the big money can make mistakes, or act in a confused manner. Nobody is perfect, and nobody predicts perfectly, all the time.

You can have a very long...
I agree with every word you said.

If big money were always right, the sub prime financial crisis would never have happened.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,307
  • Apr 18, 2012 2:05am Apr 18, 2012 2:05am
Quoting slowpokeyjoe
I have taken the Table of Contents and merged them with the .pdf document developed by flaw & outlined by Riddermark (as discussed in the quote). I love having the Table of Contents and in the .pdf each "chapter" should link to the coinciding posts, and the hyperlinks to the coinciding page of FF.

I had to recreate the doc in Word first and then save as a .pdf - my apologies if I have inadvertently left something out.

Do you guys like it, hate it, want me to do the same with the other volumes? I would love to put together a .pdf for specific...
Great work, Gina. I´m putting you in the Hall of Fame. This is hard work. You deserve it. Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,308
  • Apr 18, 2012 2:15am Apr 18, 2012 2:15am
Quoting Ever E. Man
Another article that sums up the crisis in Europe:
"War For Spain"
http://www.philstockworld.com/2012/0...war-for-spain/

'Yet Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has warned that the situation has created "a vicious circle that strangles Spain."

Rajoy delivered a strongly worded speech to parliament, insisting that it was "as clear as day" that Spain would not need a Greek-style bailout. But in recognition that the country is losing market confidence, he appealed to other European leaders to be "careful with their comments"...
Spaniards behaving like Germans? That will be the day... They wouldn´t want to even if they could. Why do Germans vacation in Spain by the tens of thousands? Because Spain is fun...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,309
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:00am Apr 18, 2012 3:00am
Quoting Alorente
Spaniards behaving like Germans? That will be the day... They wouldn´t want to even if they could. Why do Germans vacation in Spain by the tens of thousands? Because Spain is fun...
We ( a few mates ) have a long weekend in Berlin coming up, hope we can find some fun !!
  • #9,310
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:03am Apr 18, 2012 3:03am
Quoting Alorente
William, you say you look at it twice a day and all 3 time frames have to line up with the slope direction. What do you do when one doesn´t line up? You don´t trade that day?

I agree with what you say. It is way too early to declare victory. The Slope indi is excellent in detecting building momentum, but we haven´t faced wacky, all over the place volatility yet. I don´t think that system will survive large spikes.
Which system don't you think will survive large spikes, Extreme TMA?
  • #9,311
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:39am Apr 18, 2012 3:39am
Quoting musashikilla
Hi Guys,

Thanks to Frank (fmuir) I got in action. Finally. I came across the following problem.As a hardworking man (fulltime), I am most interested in applying EAs. The Packet.zip provides 2 Eas (5x5 sell and buy) and the Cave manager as TP/SL. I apply EA (depending on the rules).After the EA suspends itself, I activate CM and .....go back to work I open 1 lot each time. What I ve noticed is (and I ve repeated it over 20 times):
- first 4 transactions are profitable
- the 5th one - is a loss
- in case o profit - CV for profit is e.g. 20 pips....
Mike,

The 5x5 buy and 5x5 sell EAs distributed in packet.zip are customized for the 15 minute TF. That was the focus when this thread started. The moving average that triggers the EAs is hard-wired for that timeframe. That might explain why the EAs don't work as expected. I'm sure one exists for the H1 timeframe, but I don't have it.

Also, you will need to get your brokers GMTOffset, which is the time difference between their trading server(s) and London time. This time value needs to be placed in CaveManager, for the Local_HrsServerTzFrom GMT variable. It also needs to be set in the THV4 TzPivotsD (Black) indicator on your chart(s) for the HrsServerTZfromGMT variable.

Are you using the default values for CaveManager? I read a post somewhere on this thread that briefly addresses how someone else was using that EA. I haven't experimented with that yet.

Good Luck,
-Frank

P.S. If somebody has modified versions of 1.0 5x5 Buy and 1.0 5x5 Sell EAs, could you please provide copies?
  • #9,312
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:45am Apr 18, 2012 3:45am
Quoting normtold
Which system don't you think will survive large spikes, Extreme TMA?
Hello,

I am trying different spikes indicator, but the one I am using differs from one platform to another , maybe spread problem ,,, can anyone give me a stable version ... if it repaints (better) ... ...

Al,

I almost finished a stable version of an EA MT4 , it is based on signals, rules and engines and it can be piloted by network commands ... Rules are defined by the user so it is an open EA .. I would have liked to share it here but it is too big... all indicators are supported (THV, EXTMA, coral , .... ) . It would be an honnor for me if you can give me your point of view.. and surely you can share it for your test research ...

thanks
  • #9,313
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:06am Apr 18, 2012 4:06am
Quoting normtold
Which system don't you think will survive large spikes, Extreme TMA?
No. William´s Lazy system. I think a volatile market will cause it to trigger stop losses often making the system much less profitable. IMHO.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,314
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:14am Apr 18, 2012 4:14am
Al do you think going now short on Gbp/Usd is ok ? Because I'm short in aud/usd with 40 pips profit and looking for anothoer trade. I think gbp/usd will fall with eur/usd and it's good opportunity to short while it is so high.
  • #9,315
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:46am Apr 18, 2012 4:46am
Quoting Alorente
........ Why do Germans vacation in Spain by the tens of thousands? Because Spain is fun...
I spent 7 years of my life in Madrid and I can definitely endorse your statement. Spain is fun and Spanish people know how to enjoy themselves.
'the quieter you become, the more you are able to hear' - Ram Dass
  • #9,316
  • Apr 18, 2012 5:00am Apr 18, 2012 5:00am
Quoting slowpokeyjoe
I have taken the Table of Contents and merged them with the .pdf document developed by flaw & outlined by Riddermark (as discussed in the quote). I love having the Table of Contents and in the .pdf each "chapter" should link to the coinciding posts, and the hyperlinks to the coinciding page of FF.

I had to recreate the doc in Word first and then save as a .pdf - my apologies if I have inadvertently left something out.

Do you guys like it, hate it, want me to do the same with the other volumes? I would love to put together a .pdf for specific...
Gina, Excellent work. If you need my word files please PM me with your email address. Frank
Wishing my last name were LESS
  • #9,317
  • Apr 18, 2012 5:15am Apr 18, 2012 5:15am
Quoting fmuir
Mike,

The 5x5 buy and 5x5 sell EAs distributed in packet.zip are customized for the 15 minute TF. That was the focus when this thread started. The moving average that triggers the EAs is hard-wired for that timeframe. That might explain why the EAs don't work as expected. I'm sure one exists for the H1 timeframe, but I don't have it.

Also, you will need to get your brokers GMTOffset, which is the time difference between their trading server(s) and London time. This time value needs to be placed in CaveManager, for the Local_HrsServerTzFrom GMT...
Thanks, Frank, that explains a lot. I will go throuh it and report the results (to help other newbies).

greeets,

Mike
  • #9,318
  • Apr 18, 2012 5:32am Apr 18, 2012 5:32am
Quoting penet
Al do you think going now short on Gbp/Usd is ok ? Because I'm short in aud/usd with 40 pips profit and looking for anothoer trade. I think gbp/usd will fall with eur/usd and it's good opportunity to short while it is so high.
I am still short GU. You are right. In the long run it should move down also, though not as much as EU and AU.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,319
  • Edited 6:01am Apr 18, 2012 5:42am | Edited 6:01am
Al, just a quick question, when an RSI trendline you drew gets broken do you think it is worth to keep it there in the chance of being tested later on? Or do you think its too weak once it was broken once?

Also, we re some 20 pips away from neckline but not so sure it will break it..any thoughts?
  • #9,320
  • Apr 18, 2012 5:48am Apr 18, 2012 5:48am
Quoting slowpokeyjoe
I have taken the Table of Contents and merged them with the .pdf document developed by flaw & outlined by Riddermark (as discussed in the quote)...

Thanks to flaw and Riddermark for your work on these documents.

Gina
Many thanks, Gina!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
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