DislikedWriter of this text perfectly knows where is going forex market. The writer is one of the best traders in the world for 20 years. His real account is about 3 billion euros...All these years I follow his work and never go wrong. In the short term to some unforeseen things happen, but never a long term mistake. Do you think that the USD has a future? and if you have a future, what investors, but large investors wants invest in usd (interest rates at 0%!!!!) I dont think so....
euro must not fall ... And if the whole world will be buying the euro in...Ignored
I tend to agree that it is often an oversight of short term traders to ignore what big money is doing, and that it is important to have an idea of who is on the other side of your trade.
The big money moves the markets, but even the big money can make mistakes, or act in a confused manner. Nobody is perfect, and nobody predicts perfectly, all the time.
You can have a very long run, as Bill Gross has had at Pimco, or Warren Buffett has had, but eventually, something will cause you to make a mistake. Look at John Paulson, George Soros, and others that trade many times 3 billion euros, and eventually make mistakes, especially in predicting the future.
It is a truism of the market that past performance does not insure future results.
>"The writer is one of the best traders in the world for 20 years."
Long term success can make a person intrenched and hidebound in their approach to the market, tending to make him do exactly what he as done so successfully over the last 20 years. This is especially true when the fundamentals change radically from what they had been for the last 20 years.
>"His real account is about 3 billion euros..." Once the bond vigillantes drive the price of borrowing for deficit governments through the roof, the big money may suddenly decide to shorten its long term horizon, or pay the consequences. Could TOR and other large investors be counting on the central banks to backstop the ongoing debt crisis in perpetuity as the BOJ has done in Japan? Europe is not Japan.
A quote from this article "Bernanke And Germany Wake Up To A Merda Storm" republished in Phil's Stock World,
http://www.philstockworld.com/2012/0...a-merda-storm/
"Other clues: the increasing sound and fury from money managers who went along for the ride and now realize this constant central bank exposure doesn't work. First, Barton Biggs washed his hands of it this week, then Michael Steinhardt and Pimco's El-Erian..."
These are definitely big money players, going in the opposite direction to TOR.
As far as defending the USD, I have to agree that it is unappealing as an investment vehicle, but during the 2008 liquidity crisis where did all the money flow to? Where did TOR put his money, BTW? Just curious.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...