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EUR/CHF

  • #5,701
  • Apr 17, 2012 10:56am Apr 17, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Simon73
What do you mean "peg broken" (and all guys, who think it will broken)?
why do u keep saying this? for those who trust in snb, its totally unnecessary. for those who dont...well, its totally unnecessary too, they dont get it
  • #5,702
  • Apr 17, 2012 10:58am Apr 17, 2012 10:58am
All those selling EURCHF at this moment, I wonder what price are they closing their sell position?
  • #5,703
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:00am Apr 17, 2012 11:00am
Quoting worsttrader
why do u keep saying this? for those who trust in snb, its totally unnecessary. for those who dont...well, its totally unnecessary too, they dont get it
I know, but i would like to know if somebody say "peg broken", what he think.

Break for a second, or break for ever.

Just wonder..
  • #5,704
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:06am Apr 17, 2012 11:06am
Quoting Simon73
I know, but i would like to know if somebody say "peg broken", what he think.

Break for a second, or break for ever.

Just wonder..
its okay. i think it cant break again as it did a few weeks before, then they told us this was a technical problem, so they cant say it again.
at the moment i see only one possibility to go under 1.2 and this is if snb says 'okay guys, we do not support the peg any more'.
  • #5,705
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:11am Apr 17, 2012 11:11am
Quoting worsttrader
its okay. i think it cant break again as it did a few weeks before, then they told us this was a technical problem, so they cant say it again.
at the moment i see only one possibility to go under 1.2 and this is if snb says 'okay guys, we do not support the peg any more'.
I think so

The main risk is your broker.

On friday 6 of april, the spread was 11 pip when the market closed

Last friday it was 20! pip.

So the retail brokers do the their best to close long positions
  • #5,706
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:14am Apr 17, 2012 11:14am
Quoting Simon73
I think so

The main risk is your broker.

On friday 6 of april, the spread was 11 pip when the market closed

Last friday it was 20! pip.

So the retail brokers do the their best to close long positions
of course, they do the best they can...for themselves.

mine is 3,2 - 3,3 at the moment.
  • #5,707
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:17am Apr 17, 2012 11:17am
Do anybody have any information about tomorrow goverment meeting?

- exact time?
- tomorrow or after tomorrow? (there was some source say it will thusday)
- source?
- maybe some speech/conference with exact time?

Thanks
  • #5,708
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:18am Apr 17, 2012 11:18am
Quoting worsttrader
i doubt it can be a leg. i think its only testing and i wonder if it falls under 1.201
May the Prophet talk from you.

  • #5,709
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:19am Apr 17, 2012 11:19am
Quoting worsttrader
of course, they do the best they can...for themselves.

mine is 3,2 - 3,3 at the moment.
Mine is 2.5, and the swap is positive, but before New York close it has extrem level in the last two friday
  • #5,710
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:21am Apr 17, 2012 11:21am
Quoting Simon73
Mine is 2.5, and the swap is positive, but before New York close it has extrem level in the last two friday
could u pls name it in private?
thanks
  • #5,711
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:22am Apr 17, 2012 11:22am
Quoting pipxster
May the Prophet talk from you.

hope the best. as i see things now, we have the chance for a close above 1.2015-7.
  • #5,712
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:26am Apr 17, 2012 11:26am
Quoting Simon73
Do anybody have any information about tomorrow goverment meeting?

- exact time?
- tomorrow or after tomorrow? (there was some source say it will thusday)
- source?
- maybe some speech/conference with exact time?

Thanks
Best thing about this: no time, no source. Even if NZZ does not write about this on Sunday, now one's got a clue. No goolge nothing. Also possible next week. After the decision statement or press conf whatever of course. Maybe because its on schedule of the government session but if theres's delay then the put it into next session.

Like to say it will be ready when its done.
  • #5,713
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:26am Apr 17, 2012 11:26am
Looking into charts for the pegged pair is not a good idea.. only area to look is if we will have spikes,intervention,rumors or breaking of pair.

Charts for this pair can be read as you want to read..take 3,4,5 days.. or week, month and invent your sayings.. based on slow stoics, cci's etc.

Pair may hit 1.2000 soon if it breaks 1.2010 and can go little high above 1.2080... Let's C.. if Jordan has the b@!!s to keep it..

Who says 9 billion is too much when 100 billions..traded everyday in EUR/USD denominations.
If someone sells 10-20 billions EURO in all the major pairs.. no one buys USD/CHF equally that is enough reason to break the peg.. This is just an example for some who said.. 9 billion is too much.. to break a peg..

The hedge funds who are attacking.. don't they know how many bids are there and how much they need to offer to break the peg.. They know very well. they are not rookies... they know their stuff too..

SNB could be unlimited as in unlimited.. so let'C and attack the peg to see who got what
  • #5,714
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:28am Apr 17, 2012 11:28am
Quoting multi888
All those selling EURCHF at this moment, I wonder what price are they closing their sell position?
Those who are selling at that price are not traders with leveraged account. They are holding real EURO and they are just securing their huge storage of EURO by converting it into CHF. We know that there are risks of holding EURO to the end of the year. Moreover, they also don't care about SNB peg, because peg of 1.25/1.30 will make them looser of only 5 to 10 cents per CHF while holding EURO may increase it to 15-20 cents after US election at the end of the year.
  • #5,715
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:39am Apr 17, 2012 11:39am
Funny that there's always a fear for EUR

- greece
- spain
- italy
- us elections
- etc. whatever

meanwhile eur still up 500 pips since mid january and not really like to fall back. Most of the retail short EUR/USD I got the feeling to close above 1,4 end of the year. How much is public debt 80% in EUR how much in Japan or US?

No one talks about Japan debt, US local government debt, Bernanke print(ed) etc.
  • #5,716
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:54am Apr 17, 2012 11:54am
Quoting pipxster
Funny that there's always a fear for EUR

- greece
- spain
- italy
- us elections
- etc. whatever

meanwhile eur still up 500 pips since mid january and not really like to fall back. Most of the retail short EUR/USD I got the feeling to close above 1,4 end of the year. How much is public debt 80% in EUR how much in Japan or US?

No one talks about Japan debt, US local government debt, Bernanke print(ed) etc.
have you notice that is in a downtrend channel since 08/2011 high at 1.45 ?
ecb has printed much more money than fed. see LTRO and OMO.
no investors buys european bonds, even worst most funds short it
if we let out germany, the rest of europe is going to recession
and to most countries debt seems to be out of control

euro to me is so much overvalued, but those are opininion and views
There shall be no QE3
  • #5,717
  • Apr 17, 2012 12:11pm Apr 17, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting Helloguys
have you notice that is in a downtrend channel since 08/2011 high at 1.45 ?
ecb has printed much more money than fed. see LTRO and OMO.
no investors buys european bonds, even worst most funds short it
if we let out germany, the rest of europe is going to recession
and to most countries debt seems to be out of control

euro to me is so much overvalued, but those are opininion and views
True..
There is no major difference between ECB and FED balance sheets both are expanding and expanded..
Major difference is USD is of one country, EURO mix of many individual nations and they are not united like one.. elections,different priorities etc.. so no faith by banks/hedge funds..
What they did to investors in greece, they made them pay heavily and equal to bankrupty only.. so no one wants to invest
EURO is inflated right now..
  • #5,718
  • Apr 17, 2012 12:12pm Apr 17, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting Helloguys
have you notice that is in a downtrend channel since 08/2011 high at 1.45 ?
ecb has printed much more money than fed. see LTRO and OMO.
no investors buys european bonds, even worst most funds short it
if we let out germany, the rest of europe is going to recession
and to most countries debt seems to be out of control

euro to me is so much overvalued, but those are opininion and views
Of course it's a big debate, bigger than E/CHF peg. Sorry if this is offtopic.

Noticed yes, while this is the market sentiment for me. The fact is Us debt 101% of GDP where EU debt 80%. If LTRO and OMO more than US debt (wonder if this is the case if you take into account the size of the economy) means to me that EU problems are more resolved than US. If there's a growth story then it might take 10 years to reach the same level all things equal.

Of course bloomberg and all other cnbc pumping these news, but would be interesting to see last years ACBs how diversified their portfolio into EU assets
saying lol.

Im out of E/U because its very mixed at least for me. Eg. unlike E/CHF in EUR/USD it's really warning that reatil is full of shorts.

And wish a good luck with the short (btw short is good for Eurozone like Mr. Sarkozy said) to you.
  • #5,719
  • Apr 17, 2012 12:17pm Apr 17, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
True..
There is no major difference between ECB and FED balance sheets both are expanding and expanded..
Major difference is USD is of one country, EURO mix of many individual nations and they are not united like one.. elections,different priorities etc.. so no faith by banks/hedge funds..
What they did to investors in greece, they made them pay heavily and equal to bankrupty only.. so no one wants to invest
EURO is inflated right now..
Also agree, most of it political and regulation problem, but politicians prefer to be re-elected.
Infalted = good for the economy al least nowadays isn't it?
  • #5,720
  • Apr 17, 2012 12:24pm Apr 17, 2012 12:24pm
I accept other opinions but letīs be realistic.
If you would be a very rich hedgefund and would think about making money would you try to fight a PEG?
Only if you know that you have the power to break the PEG to profit huge.

In this case the SNB has unlimited amounts of money CHF to buy EUR as they print them and politicians are on the same side as the SNB so there is no pressure for them not to do it. It is the other way round politicians and powerfull lobbyists are trying to make the SNB to even rise the SNB.
So to gain some % you would be willing to start a fight against an opponent with unlimited amout of money that depending on your leverage could even wipe you out as you only have limited amounts?

No,no,no!

2 points to keep in mind:
First do not realate on your broker as a price of 1,2001 would mean price lower than the PEG at your broker depending on his spread so you could be dealing with a 1,1989 sell price although the PEG did stand.

Second, hedgefunds and banks are short for some time and this long time of low 1,20s price gives them time to cover and buy into the small risk taking shorts and the traders that sell because they do not get their expected paycheck within a week.
Swiss banks with contacts do not need to drive prices below the PEG to profit. They just need to bee short from 1,24 and have time to cover and add to the long side. They could make billions buying now alongside the SNB and sell at the "new" PEG of 1,30.

In the US there is a saying, do not fight the FED (as they have unlimited money -as per definition-) and same goes here, do not fight the SNB!

Just my two cents!


Quoting coolkaps4u
Looking into charts for the pegged pair is not a good idea.. only area to look is if we will have spikes,intervention,rumors or breaking of pair.

Charts for this pair can be read as you want to read..take 3,4,5 days.. or week, month and invent your sayings.. based on slow stoics, cci's etc.

Pair may hit 1.2000 soon if it breaks 1.2010 and can go little high above 1.2080... Let's C.. if Jordan has the b@!!s to keep it..

Who says 9 billion is too much when 100 billions..traded everyday in EUR/USD denominations.
If someone sells 10-20 billions...
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