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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #308,221
  • Apr 15, 2012 6:26am Apr 15, 2012 6:26am
im about to blow up
  • #308,222
  • Apr 15, 2012 6:26am Apr 15, 2012 6:26am
Quoting A-speculator
nice pip to you too bro..

well, what i'm doing is actually a picking bottom which might get my hands dirty.. as you can see my SL is just below the Friday's low about 20 pips or so..

it's not that big position, 1/5 from my position on friday on cable..

furthermore, i don't expect a sudden jump to the upside either.. if that support hold, we might get to see consolidation above the support for sometime, normally we will see consolidation in 4h or reversal candle on 4h before changing direction..
it is right, Reversal candle in the bigger time frime indicate new opposite trend will begin. Usually on monday the movement will be tend to swing in the certain area, it is rarely to find strong trending, so i agree about consolidation. It is ok for me, consolidation mean maybe we will find flat movement in certain TF, it will be nice put BB and some moving average and scalping mode on.....it seems like ranging in 1520-15890.... small lot will be good option tomorrow for me....
  • #308,223
  • Apr 15, 2012 8:52am Apr 15, 2012 8:52am
Quoting Red Alert

to predict the direction which way cable will go, I prefer to study the historical behaviour, still looking for similiar pattern and i will try to find the technical also fundamental clue.....


Have a nice holiday mate......

Here is some info for you - regarding historical behavior.....I am linking you to some charts on other sites as my broker does not provide me with 10 years of chart data - so please pardon the multiple charts on different pages.....

History for you....look at what I found posted July 30, 2009 -

Scroll down to the GBP/NZD chart and look at the chart pattern and the comments that are written - http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currenc...980784728.html

Now from the 2.60ish level in 2009 - look where we are today - 1.90 - which is below the 1996 low and is continuing lower - http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=NZD&view=10Y

So if you look for historical behavior.....look at GBP/USD right now and compare it to that first GBP/NZD chart - looks historically similar. Here is GBP/USD right now on a 10 year chart http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=USD&view=10Y

The Pound is developing the same 2 - 3 year triangle that GBP/NZD developed.

Just my thoughts on history -

Hope all had a good weekend.

Cheers,

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #308,224
  • Apr 15, 2012 9:23am Apr 15, 2012 9:23am
Price Action, RedAlert
  • #308,225
  • Apr 15, 2012 10:07am Apr 15, 2012 10:07am
Very nice observation, faller...you 've been following this thing much longer than me, thanks to share with me.....my broker provide limited pairs....thanks you also to provide me the link...
hmm i need to study it in detail to summarize something...
hopefully tomorrow will be your lucky day mate....
Have a nice time...

R A
  • #308,226
  • Apr 15, 2012 10:09am Apr 15, 2012 10:09am
Quoting PoundTrader
Price Action, RedAlert
hi mate, thank you for remind me that key word....
  • #308,227
  • Apr 15, 2012 10:23am Apr 15, 2012 10:23am
Quoting Red Alert
Very nice observation, faller...you 've been following this thing much longer than me, thanks to share with me.....my broker provide limited pairs....thanks you also to provide me the link...
hmm i need to study it in detail to summarize something...
hopefully tomorrow will be your lucky day mate....
Have a nice time...

R A
i read all link from faller and very nice data, the pattern is similiar how they built the same triangle pattern...this is what named characteristic of cable, ........thanks faller, 2 thumb up for you....
  • #308,228
  • Apr 15, 2012 12:27pm Apr 15, 2012 12:27pm
difficult conditions ,as cable sideways ,not ideal for candles except extreme of range ,but im looking at these bear candles ,the size and wicks in comparision to those around ,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #308,229
  • Apr 15, 2012 12:40pm Apr 15, 2012 12:40pm
From a monthly point of view half way in Cable has much to do to turn bullish this month
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd monthly 15-4-12.gif Size: 27 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #308,230
  • Apr 15, 2012 12:49pm Apr 15, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting Bones
From a monthly point of view half way in Cable has much to do to turn bullish this month
cant argue with yur analysis bud..
crystal clear..im not liking my longs at all..and concerned
  • #308,231
  • Apr 15, 2012 12:59pm Apr 15, 2012 12:59pm
Its a difficult chart Nav personally I'm not trading it ,there is this rising TL ,but really I don't see as real

Clearly at this time price continues sideways
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd w1 15-04-12.gif Size: 26 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #308,232
  • Apr 15, 2012 1:20pm Apr 15, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting Bones
Its a difficult chart Nav personally I'm not trading it ,there is this rising TL ,but really I don't see as real

Clearly at this time price continues sideways

i know what u mean, it is very tough to read and thats why i still have hope the mofo may go up..in theory sideways is good as the probability is to go in the direction b4 the consolidation started (bull )

but not liking the PA around 1.6..thx man for your analysys
  • #308,233
  • Apr 15, 2012 1:22pm Apr 15, 2012 1:22pm
Good day to you all,

Back from weekend away with the wife. Entered heavy short before I left town. Will bank when we open.

Looking to see a possible retrace to the 1.5900 - 1.5920 area and from there we could continue lower? Will see...

Trade well

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #308,234
  • Apr 15, 2012 2:08pm Apr 15, 2012 2:08pm
Reading an article of how UK is Already in double dip recession since Q1 figures came out....
and it is as i fear that UK is printing money to avoid a "Headline" recession but the economy is contracting....
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...-in-recession/
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #308,235
  • Apr 15, 2012 2:38pm Apr 15, 2012 2:38pm
http://www.efxnews.com/story/11936/b...urusd-position

The pound will follow the euro...
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #308,236
  • Apr 15, 2012 2:56pm Apr 15, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting Faller
http://www.efxnews.com/story/11936/b...urusd-position

The pound will follow the euro...
i agree...i usually short the pound if i am also shorting the Euro. I can not see the logic in going in contradicting directions on the USD.
  • #308,237
  • Apr 15, 2012 3:03pm Apr 15, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting bguguen
Reading an article of how UK is Already in double dip recession since Q1 figures came out....
and it is as i fear that UK is printing money to avoid a "Headline" recession but the economy is contracting....
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...-in-recession/

Interesting to read how construction is down down down even though they have been building their asses off for the Olympics. Someone just has to take the plug outta the shitter hole so that this thing can tank they way it should.

"Chris Crowe from Barclays Capital said the construction data for the first three months are the worst since the freezing winter and snow storms of early 1963. The figures have been so dire that they are probably enough to cause the whole economy to contract in Q1, following the 0.3pc fall in Q4 of last year."
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #308,238
  • Apr 15, 2012 3:49pm Apr 15, 2012 3:49pm
Quoting Faller
Interesting to read how construction is down down down even though they have been building their asses off for the Olympics. Someone just has to take the plug outta the shitter hole so that this thing can tank they way it should.

[color=Red]"Chris Crowe from Barclays Capital said the construction data for the first three months are the worst since the freezing winter and snow storms of early 1963. The figures have been so dire that they are probably enough to cause the whole economy to contract in Q1, following the 0.3pc fall in...
Faller,

If I were you, I wouldn't rely too much on BarCap's predictions. I usually go against what they say and tend to do well most of the time . FYI, I deal with them regularly every week.

It is true the economic data is weak/mixed and; the European outlook is not looking good which is going to have an impact on the economic performance of UK. However, UK is able to keep its AAA rating with a stable outlook which even the US couldn't manage.

Here is a recent article in the Finance Times that possibly explains the reasons for Sterling's recent performance.

I think it is going to be an interesting week for GBP. I returned today from a short break in Paris and looking forward to trading.

Wishing you green pips.
  • #308,239
  • Apr 15, 2012 4:24pm Apr 15, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting Rasi
Faller,

If I were you, I wouldn't rely too much on BarCap's predictions. I usually go against what they say and tend to do well most of the time . FYI, I deal with them regularly every week.

It is true the economic data is weak/mixed and; the European outlook is not looking good which is going to have an impact on the economic performance of UK. However, UK is able to keep its AAA rating with a stable outlook which even the US couldn't manage.

Here...
I take all news with a grain of Salt - I am an intra day price action trader. I look at everything from technicals to fundamentals - but base all trades on price action - I just like to have the knowledge of fundamentals and technicals.

S&P may have said yes to AAA and stable outlook but Fitch & Moody's maintain Negative Outlook - It only takes one of the ratings agencies to downgrade for a little poop to hit the fan - we have to keep our minds and eyes open to everything that we can.....even though we cannot possible see or understand everything. That is why I am a price action trader - with a solid understanding of technicals and fundamentals.

Cheers and thanks for your reply.

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #308,240
  • Apr 15, 2012 4:28pm Apr 15, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting PoundTrader
im about to blow up
You speak in riddles bro, you tryin' to keep us thinking
Come with me if you want to live....
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