EURUSD

MTF Analysis


monthly TF

price produced last month an inside bar, which represent itself as a hanging man. This can be a bullish move in a downtrend.

The recent monthly candle has so far fully engulfed last months candle, which is bearish, but month has not closed yet - so a lot can happen.

Out of MM view price has fallen now below the 3/8 trading line again without touching the 4/8 pivot. This is bearish again. But the month is not closed yet.

Monthly pivot is at 3244, S1 at 3101 (now resistance), S2 is at 2863

That should be our playing field.


weekly TF

Fore-last week we got a very heavy rejection from the downsloping TL connecting the intermediate tops at 4547 and 4246. The down-move engulfed more than two weeks of advances. The previous upmove looks Elliott-wise like an ABC-flat correction. So fore-last weeks decline may be the start of a bigger move down.

Last week can be counted as consolidation pattern, maybe the wave B of an ABC-flat-up. So next weekly candle may produce an upmove, which then should terminate at least around 3244 (the monthly pivot).

Out of MM sight price was not able to reach the 3/8 line at 3428 and is now in territory of the 1/8 line at 2940.

Keep in mind: the 0/8, 4/8 and 8/8 are kind of magnetic. 0/8 line now at 2695

If price falls below 2940, it is very likely that we will see 2695 to 2451. So bulls should defend 2940 heavily.

On the other side a break of 3244 opens quickly 3428 and, higher likely, 3672.

Weeklys pivot at 3169, S1 at 2959, R1 at 3304



Daily TF

Fridays bearish action engulfed nearly fully the previous two days advances. The question now is, if price manages to build a 5 waves down or simply an ABC. Time wil tell, or eventually the analysis of lower TF's.

Murrey Math wise we saw a heavy rejection to the downside from the 4/8 pivot, which normally is very bearish. We are now at the 2/8 line with the 1/8 at 3001 and the 0/8 at 2940.

When 3062 (2/8) breaks, we very likely will see price visiting 3001 or 2940 (with eventually more bearish potential thereafter).

DPP at 3166, S1 at 3121 (now resistance), R1 at 3232



4h TF

Price was rejected at Friday from the +2/8 line and resides now at the 1/8 line. Since price has now traveled 9 octave lines without much of consolidation, chances are very high that we will see consolidation here.

0/8 line at 3062.

Elliott wise the near term situation is open tu multiple interpretations. Chances are, that we consolidate here a bit in direction of 3092 or 3107 (even 3123 is possible) and resume the down-move to 3062-3046-3031 at first. After that a bigger retracement can take place, but should stop below 3168 to keep the bearish case.

Movement above 3184 then is definitively bullish.

4h pivot at 3097, S1 at 3055, R1 at 3124



1h TF


Murrey Math analysis is the same as in 4h TF

EW-wise we can see very nicely impulsive structure down.

From the top at 3214 we can count either

1-2-3-and now in 4

or

1-2-(1-2-3-now in 4

This view is supported by 6h TF very well. So I go with this scenario.


But keep in mind that we can not rule out an ABC-x-ABC scenario yet. That would mean that the end of the bearish move is imminent, maybe at around 3062 - 3046.

But before we should see one more small upside attempt in direction to 3092 - 3107



Multi Method MTF Support/Resistance Analysis

based on MM, Ichimoku, Pivot, EMA's


There is definitively more upside resistance than downside support


There are resistance clusters at around 3125 and 3175 to 3200 (which are heavy).

Downside bumps are 3062, 3000-3010, and a really heavy one at 2939

Targets inside the normal daily range are 2939 and 3184


Currently Murrey Math would favor slightly rising prices.

Pivot analysis wise it may be a split decision, but with price on daily, weekly and monthly below their corresponding pivots we may see more downside action.

Gate-keeper for more downside are at first 3062 and 3031

The near term keepers for up-side are 3092 and 3123


Price is currently below all important EMA's (21, 40, 120, 234) on all TF's with exception of monthly TF (120 at 3047, 234 at 2623).

Kuomo on all TF's acts as resistance (we are below Kuomos) with exception of daily TF where we are inside the Kuomo at /near the lower boundary, which is at 3055.



Conclusion:

Most likely I see a first small move up to 3092-3123

After that a further move down may resume, which should at least target 3031 - 3000, in case of extension 2939.

After that consolidation may occure in the area between 3000/3031 and 3123

If 2939 is reached we may see consolidation between 2939 and 3062



Stops for long positions around/slightly below 3000 level.

Stops for shorts definitively slightly above 3184 or 3168


Keep in mind: Indicators can stay in OB/OS conditions or in Divergence very very long. Oftentimes the most advances/declines are made in this conditions.


Short positions can be placed at 3092 - 3123

Long positions best at 3046 - 3031 - 3010 or later at around 2940 (but at that point situation should be assessed anew)

@Megajester:

As we grow as traders, we learn alot about ourselves. Deep in a traders heart and also his trading account lies the TRUTH. The psychological effect of trading manifests itself in different ways in every trader. Some brag, some lie, some curse, some are humble, some humiliate etc etc. There are a host of different ways that we deal with the psychology of trading.

If we are to be truthful about or trading, be it profitable or not so profitable - the only factual, credible and accountable way is through a traders Account Summary.

Until traders can boldly produce an account summary, just as easily as they produce a chart and make a comment. Nothing else will corroborate the 500pips they say they make or lose OR the many accounts that they trade.

ONLY PAY ATTENTION TO THE ACCOUNT SUMMARY - nothing else
Showing you a profitable trade or loss means nothing -

Showing you the TOTAL ACCOUNT SUMMARY - says EVERYTHING

Again, it is important for us to appreciate that the psychology behind trading is very powerful and it affects all of us differently. Let us help traders to be more open, if they are going to share, but to be open with credible factual evidence as an account summary would prove.

Killer, why don't you ever post in the really useless thread where all of the real traders are? I only see you here bossing around newbies..

of curse, not

Im all for being open if killer wants to post his winning trades then post away but then he cant turn round and slag everyone else for posting their winning trades

@megajester:

Membership Rules

Rule #1: Respect Thy Fellow Trader
As a Forex Factory member, you are expected to treat others with respect and kindness. Mean-spiritedness, fighting, hostility, racism, offensive comments, and slander are all subject to removal. Healthy debate is welcome.

Additionally, all members have the right to trade in peace - you should not harass, attack, or disrupt another trader's thread. If you dislike or disagree with someone's ideas, it's fine to say so, but you should move on shortly thereafter.

Are these rules being followed by every member? NO
Are the moderator/s moderating consistently and effectively? Actions speak louder than words.

If Senior members break the 1st Rule so will everyone else.

Account summary is not enough. It can be "salted".

The truth is to post a call live or before the fact with stop and target. One can modify stops/targets but let them be done b4 the fact. It is that simple.

What can i say

@Gametheory:

Its Both gametheory. Its actually both. If a trader decides to share his trading completely. Then He must first post his account summary before trading begins and then post his trades entry SL and Exit and then post his account summary after.

So its really both if we are going to follow along with his/her trading progress. But no one does this. Is it important to do this? NO. But if you are going to brag and boast and ridicule - then justify it, even though its still WRONG to brag, boast and ridicule.

@megajester:

Its the world we live in. Everyone serves a purpose, some traders are here to show us how we are not to be and some are here to show us how we should be.

Lead by Example.

Dont take any of it personally, just see it for what it is and move on

mafkees

Hello everyone....what all of you think about monday....i think it will go down like rock as usd will gain more power...

but who is it that says how we should or should not be?

....and dont worry I dont take anything personally ... is this the time that we should move on now

@megajester:

Very good - YES - This is the time to move on. Nothing is wrong with Forex Factory's Forums. As traders we must open ourselves to everything that is out there to fill ourselves up with information. As we begin to process the information, we then start to filter and as we filter, we discover, what is best, what works, what doesn't work and overtime, we have a concise outlook of the forex, traders, forums, brokers etc etc

It all boils down to valuable experience, that you then take and use to help guide a new trader and someone who needs help

Are there any views at all for the coming week? Or is it just philosophical stuff, boasting about the past performance and experiences, and entertainment?

If there are any views at all, hope it's not a lot of "if, then, else" ... I can't place my bets

come on,you are not idiot

nice