DislikedWednesday is the day to look for, if the candidate is approved it will happen on wednesday, and probably they will use the same moment to elect the new president, at that point a new change in the monetary policy can be made.
Chances are that any new change will be then decided on 27 of april, but i see that the market want something new and want it fast, so maybe wednesday will be the day.Ignored
- #5,446
- Apr 13, 2012 1:35pm Apr 13, 2012 1:35pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2005 | 2,784 Posts
4 pips spike up! it happened! IT HAPPENED!!
It not efficient to this with low liquidity + other institutes also not work in case of an event.
May be I should shoot the new President an email next Thursday and he does it next weekend
- #5,449
- Apr 13, 2012 1:57pm Apr 13, 2012 1:57pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2005 | 2,784 Posts
now sell until its too late
If it goes above 1.203 I might lower my leverage too...
Although I did this last rally as well and I was sorry ...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post5564674
- #5,457
- Apr 13, 2012 3:50pm Apr 13, 2012 3:50pm
look someone's shorting, how interesting...however BOE example limps
SNB pleez lets take their stoplosses...
SNB Poised To Repeat Dubious History
13 Apr 2012 11:45 EDT
By Stephen L. Bernard and Vincent Cignarella
NEW YORK (Dow Jones via eFXnews)
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By setting an exchange-rate floor, the Swiss National Bank is setting itself up to fail.
When the euro breached the SNB's floor last week, senior foreign-exchange dealers wrote off the move as a technicality and not a true test of the central bank's resolve. If history is any gauge, a real test is coming. Speculators will once again attack the floor, hoping to break the back of the central bank.
But just by saying it wants to keep the euro-Swiss franc exchange rate above CHF1.20, a person who 20 years ago found himself in a similar position as this small European nation's central bankers believes the SNB may have already lost.
"I think they are out of their tiny little minds to mention a target to the markets," said Jim Trott, the chief dealer for the Bank of England when it failed to hold the floor on the U.K. pound-Deutsche mark in 1992.
"I can see no advantage whatsoever for them saying that 'We're going to hold it at 1.20,'" Trott said during a roundtable discussion hosted by ForexLive. "That can only ever end in failure."
The failure Trott speaks of is what happened in the aftermath of the Bank of England's inability to hold the pound-mark floor on Sept. 16, 1992.
That day, the floor of 2.7780 marks to the pound was breached, with the pound tumbling nearly 3% against the Deutsche mark in just a few hours. Within three weeks, it was down more than 12%.
For the purpose of comparison, the SNB is best seen as the Deutsche Bundesbank, which was a partner to the BOE in seeking to maintain what was then the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, or ERM. The German central bank was then defending its currency against appreciation versus another, just as the Swiss bank is now doing.
The Swiss National Bank floor might be a tougher nut to crack than the Bundesbank/BOE team. Its position is focused solely on protecting its home currency and is founded on a base of political support that didn't exist for countries participating in the multi-currency ERM.
But the fact remains, Switzerland is small. An economy whose gross domestic product is roughly equivalent to New Jersey's is going up against the euro--the unit of exchange for the currency with the second biggest GDP in the world.
The SNB already proved it has holes last week, with the central bank acknowledging this week it could happen again because the SNB doesn't have credit lines with every bank.
Trading below the floor could trigger between EUR20 billion and EUR40 billion in stop-loss orders, according to one trader at a large European bank. Sources told Dow Jones the SNB spent more than EUR1 billion to try and hold CHF1.20 last week and the SNB had another EUR9 billion in standing orders to keep it there.
Based on the amount of stop-loss orders alone, the SNB would need a lot more firepower to defend the floor.
A drop similar in size to the breach of the pound-mark floor would push the euro to about CHF1.05--near where the euro bottomed last August before the SNB set the floor.
If the SNB fails, Europeans will be paying a far higher price for that weekend ski trip in Gstaad this coming winter.
SNB pleez lets take their stoplosses...
SNB Poised To Repeat Dubious History
13 Apr 2012 11:45 EDT
By Stephen L. Bernard and Vincent Cignarella
NEW YORK (Dow Jones via eFXnews)
Share on print Print Share on email Email
By setting an exchange-rate floor, the Swiss National Bank is setting itself up to fail.
When the euro breached the SNB's floor last week, senior foreign-exchange dealers wrote off the move as a technicality and not a true test of the central bank's resolve. If history is any gauge, a real test is coming. Speculators will once again attack the floor, hoping to break the back of the central bank.
But just by saying it wants to keep the euro-Swiss franc exchange rate above CHF1.20, a person who 20 years ago found himself in a similar position as this small European nation's central bankers believes the SNB may have already lost.
"I think they are out of their tiny little minds to mention a target to the markets," said Jim Trott, the chief dealer for the Bank of England when it failed to hold the floor on the U.K. pound-Deutsche mark in 1992.
"I can see no advantage whatsoever for them saying that 'We're going to hold it at 1.20,'" Trott said during a roundtable discussion hosted by ForexLive. "That can only ever end in failure."
The failure Trott speaks of is what happened in the aftermath of the Bank of England's inability to hold the pound-mark floor on Sept. 16, 1992.
That day, the floor of 2.7780 marks to the pound was breached, with the pound tumbling nearly 3% against the Deutsche mark in just a few hours. Within three weeks, it was down more than 12%.
For the purpose of comparison, the SNB is best seen as the Deutsche Bundesbank, which was a partner to the BOE in seeking to maintain what was then the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, or ERM. The German central bank was then defending its currency against appreciation versus another, just as the Swiss bank is now doing.
The Swiss National Bank floor might be a tougher nut to crack than the Bundesbank/BOE team. Its position is focused solely on protecting its home currency and is founded on a base of political support that didn't exist for countries participating in the multi-currency ERM.
But the fact remains, Switzerland is small. An economy whose gross domestic product is roughly equivalent to New Jersey's is going up against the euro--the unit of exchange for the currency with the second biggest GDP in the world.
The SNB already proved it has holes last week, with the central bank acknowledging this week it could happen again because the SNB doesn't have credit lines with every bank.
Trading below the floor could trigger between EUR20 billion and EUR40 billion in stop-loss orders, according to one trader at a large European bank. Sources told Dow Jones the SNB spent more than EUR1 billion to try and hold CHF1.20 last week and the SNB had another EUR9 billion in standing orders to keep it there.
Based on the amount of stop-loss orders alone, the SNB would need a lot more firepower to defend the floor.
A drop similar in size to the breach of the pound-mark floor would push the euro to about CHF1.05--near where the euro bottomed last August before the SNB set the floor.
If the SNB fails, Europeans will be paying a far higher price for that weekend ski trip in Gstaad this coming winter.
- #5,460
- Apr 13, 2012 3:56pm Apr 13, 2012 3:56pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2005 | 2,784 Posts
i dont think, its only market is closing, positions r closing.
