EUR/CHF | Page 267 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/CHF

Similar Threads

GBP/CHF and USD/CHF 955 replies

Correlation EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF (Humour me please... Thx) 8 replies

EUR/CHF, USD/CHF turning up? 1 reply

Using usd/chf - eur/usd correlation to see moves in EUR/USD 46 replies

Ranging pairs? EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/CAD? 0 replies

Attachments: EUR/CHF
Exit Attachments

EUR/CHF

  • #5,321
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:55pm Apr 12, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting tunera
Out of current topic.

Ok, here a different view about the stoploss situation, get ready:

Now, we know that 90% of retails are long, and that huge stops are below the peg.
However, such bulls exposure on the pair isn't working as expected, infact the price is down and not up.
So, let's take for a second for true the hypotesis that most of the retail brokers are not hedging the long positions in the market (clients buy but such buys remain inside the broker dealing house), at this point there are no retail-stops below the 1.20 level.
Looking...

Tempted to Jump IN
your analysis right in terms of EUR/CHF But you treated it as one pair
Bifurcate to understand

EUR/USD
USD/CHF


Easy to say.. EUR/CHF went down despite so much purchase as most purchased EUR/USD and sold USD/CHF.

If you say 25 billions have purchased EUR/CHF

It is easy to say 40-50 billions easily shorted the most liquid pair (EUR/USD)

USD/CHF ( Not many traders have purchased this pair as they have shorted EUR/USD), assume 10 billion purchased this pair and rest shorted.
40 billion -10 billion (30 billion), still 5 billion more shorted EUR/CHF

Above is example how it corelates.. the values may be different and vary


These market makers cover their risk not directly this pair But buying huge call options in case pair goes up which is much cheaper than hedging Forex directly.
SNB also sold VIX and options to make sure no one cross these barriers.
  • #5,322
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:57pm Apr 12, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting alesss
Who is Jim?
I think him (nowadays famous for lowering his 1,400 2012 year-end forecast to 1,35 in EURCHF):

Jim O'Neill (economist)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jim O'Neill


Terence James "Jim" O'Neill (born March 17, 1957)[1] is the Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He is best known for his prominent economic thesis regarding the economically related nations referred to as BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China). He coined the phrase in a 2001 paper entitled "The World Needs Better Economic BRICs.".[2]
O'Neill has particular interest and success in the foreign exchange market, Gavyn Davies describing O'Neill as "the top foreign-exchange economist anywhere in the world in the past decade" in 2005.[3] He was previously head of global economic research and commodities and strategy research at Goldman Sachs.[4] He also has coined the term MIKT that stands for Mexico, Indonesia, Korea (South) and Turkey.[5]
O'Neill sits on the QFINANCE Strategic Advisory Board. He is also a member of the board of Bruegel, the European think tank for international economics [6] O'Neill is chairman of the Greater Manchester Local Enterprise Partnership Advisory Board which advises on the growth of the Greater Manchester economy.[7]
  • #5,323
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:58pm Apr 12, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting alesss
Thank you very much for answering

Do you know if there are other candidates?

there was rumour that fin or eco min would be the snb pres...

and i have read it :

According to SNB rules, the supervisory council proposes new governing board members, who are then approved by the government. But the government may name the SNB chairman without input from the council.
  • #5,324
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:05pm Apr 12, 2012 2:05pm
No Bill purposed in Swiss parliament related to CHF strength

http://www.parlament.ch/e/sessionen/...session=2012+I

Use chrome and translate to English
  • #5,325
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:11pm Apr 12, 2012 2:11pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
Tempted to Jump IN
your analysis right in terms of EUR/CHF But you treated it as one pair
Bifurcate to understand

EUR/USD
USD/CHF


Easy to say.. EUR/CHF went down despite so much purchase as most purchased EUR/USD and sold USD/CHF.

If you say 25 billions have purchased EUR/CHF

It is easy to say 40-50 billions easily shorted the most liquid pair (EUR/USD)

USD/CHF ( Not many traders have purchased this pair as they have shorted EUR/USD), assume 10 billion purchased this pair and rest shorted.
40 billion -10 billion (30 billion),...
Ok, but then if we make strange calculation and visions, we can say that a trigger of huge stoplosses below the peg would let eurchf go up and eurusd go down and usdchf go sideways.. i mean, i'm just bullshitting.
You understand what i mean, you buy something or you don't buy, if you buy something but you are not buying it, so when you sell it back you will not sell it back too.
If a trader is really buying eurchf, it means he buy eurs and sell chf. No usd involved at all, and if the brokers hedge this position by buying eurs and selling usd and then buying back the usd and selling cad and buying back cad and sell options and buy vix and this and that, i don't get it.
  • #5,326
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:13pm Apr 12, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
No Bill purposed in Swiss parliament related to CHF strength

http://www.parlament.ch/e/sessionen/...session=2012+I

Use chrome and translate to English
Usually government could decide taxation issues without the parliament. Besides, wouldn't be wise if one could google it.
  • #5,327
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:20pm Apr 12, 2012 2:20pm
Quoting tunera
Ok, but then if we make strange calculation and visions, we can say that a trigger of huge stoplosses below the peg would let eurchf go up and eurusd go down and usdchf go sideways.. i mean, i'm just bullshitting.
You understand what i mean, you buy something or you don't buy, if you buy something but you are not buying it, so when you sell it back you will not sell it back too.
If a trader is really buying eurchf, it means he buy eurs and sell chf. No usd involved at all, and if the brokers hedge this position by buying eurs and selling usd and...
No problem, Its way complex..
If you see in USD dollar context

If EUR/USD gain.. it is not necessarily for USD/CHF to weak equally.. USD weakness can be divided into other major pair may be USD/CAD will strength more.. So its not exactly equal

If you see EUR/CHF in EUR/USD and USD/CHF it will easy to understand why its not strengthing despite so much buy

Yes if stop loss taken out USD/CHF and EUR/USD one will be down extreme other relatively same or less down..

Options are other game which market makers buy/sell to hedge their positions against client.. I wish I could explain more.. But you may need to read invostopedia or option express to know more about it

Lot of guys uses it in stocks too to hedge their risk.

google: How to hedge risk with options
  • #5,328
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:29pm Apr 12, 2012 2:29pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
No problem, Its way complex..
If you see in USD dollar context

If EUR/USD gain.. it is not necessarily for USD/CHF to weak equally.. USD weakness can be divided into other major pair may be USD/CAD will strength more.. So its not exactly equal

If you see EUR/CHF in EUR/USD and USD/CHF it will easy to understand why its not strengths despite so much buy

Yes if stop loss taken out USD/CHF and EUR/USD one will be down extreme other relatively same or less down..

Options are other game which market makers buy/sell to hedge their positions...
Yes i think to know what options are, mine was just a bizzarre hypotesis, i know for sure that many brokers even the most respectable ones don't really hedge their client positions in the market, at least not all the positions.
However, this is just speculation, as we don't know nothing about the current eurchf market,
Maybe 25 (or whatever number) billions of eurchf has really been bought, and the pair went down because a bigger amount of money has been sold in the meantime. Or maybe nobody is trading this pair and it's just being moved indirectly by the other currencies deals, forex market is in some sense not a real market, not much real informations availables.
  • #5,329
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:39pm Apr 12, 2012 2:39pm
The Swiss boson. Funny read of a serious analysis: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...e-swiss-boson/
  • #5,330
  • Apr 12, 2012 3:01pm Apr 12, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting Adal
The Swiss boson. Funny read of a serious analysis: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...e-swiss-boson/
To keep the price1:20,SNB dumped billion. In the SNB basement the most expensive toilet paper in the world,the euro
  • #5,331
  • Apr 12, 2012 3:57pm Apr 12, 2012 3:57pm
http://es.scribd.com/doc/84386180/Swiss-Initiative

Here you have a document about swiss gold.
  • #5,332
  • Apr 12, 2012 4:59pm Apr 12, 2012 4:59pm
I almost fell of the chair today.
I thought my broker is honest and reputable.
But it turns out when it's about getting(winning) their money then there is no such thing as reputable brokerage.

I was earning nice swap on EURCHF until today (I also used this to offset some of the negative swaps on my other trades).
At the evening I realized I got nothing for my long EURCHF today.
It turned out they made swap 0 (zero) for both short and long EURCHF positions.

So I asked support...here is the part of an interesting conversation:

Support:
Generally we advise clients to review the swap rate for the currencies they are interested in once daily

Me:
how long do you want to keep 0?

Support:
Please note that there is no schedule time for swap rate changed. As I suggest earlier you may check currency pair swap rate before market closed.

Me:
is that simpy this brokerage doesn't want to pay the EURCHF positive longs swap as 90% of the market are longs at this moment

Support:
I understand. It could very well change tomorrow.
- end-

I also told them there is no such thing for currency pairs as zero swap (unless somebody has an islamic account)
But they just repeated the answer above.

I believe I also saw a few other brokers doing this or simply to put negative rate for long EURCHF.

How is about your brokers?
(just to know which brokers we should avoid trading with in the future)
  • #5,333
  • Apr 12, 2012 5:03pm Apr 12, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting kelkaposzta
I almost fell of the chair today.
I thought my broker is honest and reputable.
But it turns out when it's about getting(winning) their money then there is no such thing as reputable brokerage.
cool story. who r they?
  • #5,334
  • Apr 12, 2012 5:23pm Apr 12, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting kelkaposzta
I almost fell of the chair today.
I thought my broker is honest and reputable.
[...]
Avoid MT4 brokers, they are usually not trustworthy.
Try a NFA regulated broker instead (who offers trading futures).

Carry trades are a special thing.

Maybe for this Oanda might be a good choice - not NFA regulated (as I remember), but they calculate interest rates and swap every second. And they have earned quite a good reputation.

I like my broker very much, but he deducts 0.5% from the interest rates of both sides of the pair, so it is futile to bet on the tiny interest difference between EUR and CHF. The difference is larger on other pairs, e.g. EUR and INR (Iranian Rupie with a whopping 15% rate). But I would usually avoid such a trade. Far too dangerous.
  • #5,335
  • Apr 12, 2012 5:28pm Apr 12, 2012 5:28pm
hope u guys r not superstitious. its friday, 13th today. not the best for news from swiss
  • #5,336
  • Apr 12, 2012 5:38pm Apr 12, 2012 5:38pm
kelkaposzta, could u pls name ur broker? u can do it in private if u dont want to publish it. thank u!
  • #5,337
  • Apr 12, 2012 5:39pm Apr 12, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting worsttrader
hope u guys r not superstitious. its friday, 13th today. not the best for news from swiss
Fingers are crossed lol, Looks like another test of the floor could happen
  • #5,338
  • Apr 12, 2012 6:31pm Apr 12, 2012 6:31pm
kelkaposzta, thank u for ur msg. i tried to reply, pls let me know if u received it, maybe it didnt send.
  • #5,339
  • Apr 12, 2012 6:49pm Apr 12, 2012 6:49pm
Quoting TraderJF
Avoid MT4 brokers, they are usually not trustworthy.
Try a NFA regulated broker instead (who offers trading futures).

Carry trades are a special thing.

Maybe for this Oanda might be a good choice - not NFA regulated (as I remember), but they calculate interest rates and swap every second. And they have earned quite a good reputation.

I like my broker very much, but he deducts 0.5% from the interest rates of both sides of the pair, so it is futile to bet on the tiny interest difference between EUR and CHF. The difference is larger on other...
BTW Oanda gives negative swap on this pair
  • #5,340
  • Apr 12, 2012 7:26pm Apr 12, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting TraderJF
The difference is larger on other pairs, e.g. EUR and INR (Iranian Rupie with a whopping 15% rate). But I would usually avoid such a trade. Far too dangerous.
Iranian Rupie?? Or Iranian Rials?
10 traders viewing now