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EUR/CHF

  • #5,281
  • Apr 12, 2012 11:01am Apr 12, 2012 11:01am
Quoting Helloguys
ok, this is not the main question of the thread but in your answer just think that long are 90% and shotrs i am sure they have sl over 1,2150 maximum if they are not totaly fools.

i do not worry about me, cause i only scalp it, just was thinking that many brokers will not answer phones if peg moves higher
no i am totaly stupid.
market makers might didnt opened to interbank system your position when you got long at 1,2080 or 1,21 lets say.
They opened it for you at 1,2010/15 or something!!!
unless they are totaly j*rks

so dont worry about that.
There shall be no QE3
  • #5,282
  • Apr 12, 2012 11:02am Apr 12, 2012 11:02am
Quoting Helloguys
no i am totaly stupid.
market makers might didnt opened to interbank system your position when you got long at 1,2080 or 1,21 lets say.
They opened it for you at 1,2010/15 or something!!!
unless they are totaly j*rks

so dont worry about that.
u worried about that, not me
  • #5,283
  • Apr 12, 2012 11:06am Apr 12, 2012 11:06am
Quoting worsttrader
u worried about that, not me
anyway i was talking to myself, not you
There shall be no QE3
  • #5,284
  • Apr 12, 2012 11:13am Apr 12, 2012 11:13am
Quoting Helloguys
anyway i was talking to myself, not you
who r u, eminem, to talk to yourself?
  • #5,285
  • Apr 12, 2012 11:14am Apr 12, 2012 11:14am
Quoting Helloguys
no i am totaly stupid.
...They opened it for you at 1,2010/15 or something!!!
unless they are totaly j*rks
I also thought this, but this friend of mine told me, they do not bother to take the sure profit even now...

There is one more very important point, which I think is misunderstood.

Everyone says: "Long is a very good risk/reward trade", meaning that the probability of EURCHF going up is much higher than breaking the peg.

But considering the EV of the long trade - it is very negative I have come to reckon...

Most probably the peg won't be raised! Most probably, it won't be broken too. Let's say there is 10% of being raised to 1.25 and 1% to 1.30
But if there is a 5% of it being broken - what's the target - most say parity, I say, 0.8.

You do the math. I read in a Swiss paper yesterday that several hedge funds have caused the peg pentration last Thursday and I think this is their motivation for the short - very positive EXPECTED value
  • #5,286
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:05pm Apr 12, 2012 12:05pm
here we go..see UP and down ratio ( 3 legs down.. 1 small up)
waiting for ,y orders to be filled....
  • #5,287
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:09pm Apr 12, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting Adal
Last week was not the first time when the SNB had a "technical glitch". It also happened in 2010:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010...sia-overnight/
This article is not correct.

- 1.46xx never was a peg
- 1.5 was a peg in 2009. It never had broked. SNB give it up 9 months later at 1.52xx (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post5295026, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post5307235)
- in 2010 SNB tried to slow the downtrend with interventions (like in this chart)
- in 2010 SNB has not agreement with Asian bank, but now they have

A funny trade, which i did in 2010, when this move was in the Asian session. I had worked for a managed FX account company in the Asian session. The price was about 1.47 at 4 o clock. Suddenly on my metatarder account the price went 250 pip in a second. I had a personal account at GFT forex, where the price was still 1.47. I could buy (only 0.2 lot) EUR/CHF at this price, and i could close it one minute later 200 pips higher. So i agree: a lot of retail broker dont rute your positions to the market
  • #5,288
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:09pm Apr 12, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting tunera
The pair still need another support test before any real bull activity, be patient.. we'll test the floor one more time imo

seems like test is going...
  • #5,289
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:14pm Apr 12, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting daka
seems like test is going...
Yes, actually I see the next support at 1.2006 and not at 1.1997, however once at 1.2006 we may or may not see another 1.2000 test, at this point is irrelevant
  • #5,290
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:16pm Apr 12, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
here we go..see UP and down ratio ( 3 legs down.. 1 small up)
waiting for ,y orders to be filled....
EURUSD up 100 points EURCHF down 11,5 if anyone can bail me out on what is the correletion at least this year on EUR weakness I would really appreciate

  • #5,291
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:16pm Apr 12, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting daka
maybe yesterday was the test...
the min was 1.2005...and then went up

now was 1.2009
  • #5,292
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:17pm Apr 12, 2012 12:17pm
Closed SELL USD/CHF on 0,90988 for 30,39 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,293
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:25pm Apr 12, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting SasoKl
Closed SELL USD/CHF on 0,90988 for 30,39 pips
good move ! any hint for EURCHF traders?
  • #5,294
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:27pm Apr 12, 2012 12:27pm
it is time to mr O'Neill to say something...
  • #5,295
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:31pm Apr 12, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting pipxster
EURUSD up 100 points EURCHF down 11,5 if anyone can bail me out on what is the correletion at least this year on EUR weakness I would really appreciate

fed promisses (again, they do it last 4 months two times per month) more cheap dollars, which is good for eur and better for chf.

actually if you see e/u under 1,30 i think that will be good for eurchf as they will sell their euro for dollars not for chf.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...low-rates.html
There shall be no QE3
  • #5,296
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:31pm Apr 12, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting tunera
Yes, actually I see the next support at 1.2006 and not at 1.1997, however once at 1.2006 we may or may not see another 1.2000 test, at this point is irrelevant

perhaps turned up
  • #5,297
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:48pm Apr 12, 2012 12:48pm
Quoting pipxster
EURUSD up 100 points EURCHF down 11,5 if anyone can bail me out on what is the correletion at least this year on EUR weakness I would really appreciate

Inverse relations, more or less
EUR/USD moves Up--> EUR/CHF down as USD/CHF goes down
USD/CHF moves Up--> EUR/CHF (slightly UP)

not easy to explain... I am seeing lot of sell off will come in EUR/USD to attempt to break this peg.. soon

CHF is the main reason.. no one is selling it.. and hedge funds are holding alot besides real money..
  • #5,298
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:52pm Apr 12, 2012 12:52pm
it is single

it is easy


eur/usd * usd/chf = eur/chf
  • #5,299
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:54pm Apr 12, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting daka
perhaps turned up
Wait, at least 1.2008, we need another downmove at least there.
The time is coming.. in this game there are only 2 rules:
1) Buyers will be rewarded
2) Sellers will be persecuted

lol
  • #5,300
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:56pm Apr 12, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting daka
it is single

it is easy


eur/usd * usd/chf = eur/chf
1.32*0.91=1.2012
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