Dislikedin a couple minutes or maybe hours , i think will see a big move, could dragon show me the way ?Ignored
what is hedge fund , its a kind of food ?
- #33,403
- Apr 12, 2012 9:17am Apr 12, 2012 9:17am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,553 Posts
wow... why u're so sure this EU will bearish TAH?
Any indicator or signal or anything that convince u? Already 3 selling position open with high SL. isn't that too risky? and why u replace ur previous SL?
if i were u, my heart will stop beatinghahaha...
Just curious about ur mind, and i like ur mind.
May green pips be with u
The price action today is a classic example of price manipulation trickery. Smart money moves the market, meaning it temporarily moves the price one way, while it builds for a true move in the opposite direction which it will instigate later. In this case "later" might be Friday, or next week. Nobody knows. What we do know is that no less than three USD high impact releases have come in today, two missed not by much and the most important one came in decidedly positive. So why would smart money not take its time to build a short position at highs, for as long as it can trick the rest of the market into going long to support its short building effort?
Smart money also means "a lot of money". These folks can move the market easily hundreds of pips if they want to, and in quick time! So, why is the price not moving up higher, faster? I think the answer is obvious. Smart money is not buying. It is pumping up the price while shorting.
This is my take on the price action, not only today but all week. In such matters, it is just as easy to be wrong as right, so we'll let time and the market decide.
With the support of vol.. (white circle)
THey are trying hard to break the lvl..
http://uberhumor.com/wp-content/uplo...2/04/kudOj.jpg
Sonic
- #33,406
- Apr 12, 2012 9:40am Apr 12, 2012 9:40am
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,083 Posts
A question: couldn't that increase in volume also represent the possibility that they are loading up to go long at that level?
Sonic
- #33,407
- Apr 12, 2012 9:49am Apr 12, 2012 9:49am
I've been watching where the highest activity comes in, and it consistently comes in at the highest prices any drive up achieves. This tells me that smart money is betting on shorts. Sure, the price goes up. What else would smart money do if it was shorting? Of course it would drive the price higher to obtain what will later be its most profitable shorts! And, by continually driving the price up, it encourages traders to go long, which gives it the liquidity needed to continue adding shorts!
The price action today is a classic example of price...
If u so sure about this short, why u add SL on ur trading plan? Why u don't wait it droping? i'm afraid the price can hit ur SL if u're sleeping.
Or maybe master SonicDejay has the opinion about it?
Sorry to many asking, i just wanna learn from the expert cause i wanna be a day trader someday
- #33,409
- Apr 12, 2012 10:20am Apr 12, 2012 10:20am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,553 Posts
If u so sure about this short, why u add SL on ur trading plan? Why u don't wait it droping? i'm afraid the price can hit ur SL if u're sleeping.
Or maybe master SonicDejay has the opinion about it?
Sorry to many asking, i just wanna learn from the expert cause i wanna be a day trader someday
- #33,410
- Edited 10:41am Apr 12, 2012 10:25am | Edited 10:41am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,553 Posts
See following charts Week ==> Daily ==> 4H
Remember: NO trap NO business !
No trap back the low without false breakdown...then the trap will be at the top ?
I bealive Yes!
And by the time this starts dropping, the market movers will have already fully loaded themselves up with shorts, which they were able to acquire because they tricked so many others into going long!
- #33,412
- Apr 12, 2012 11:16am Apr 12, 2012 11:16am
- | Joined Mar 2012 | Status: PA & VSA "lead" the way | 414 Posts
wow
Any indicator or signal or anything that convince u? Already 3 selling position open with high SL. isn't that too risky? and why u replace ur previous SL?
if i were u, my heart will stop beating
A fast word on SL's, for anyone fairly new or only trading a year or two. There are very generally speaking two school's of thought amongst experienced traders or two camps.
The first and more popular would say, "keep your losses small, let winners run". Ideally, you want a method that wins at least 50% of the time (more is obviously better) and ideally, you are normally entering trades with at least 2:1 RR. Remember this is really generally speaking. So if you are trying to make 100 pips, you are hopefully only risking 50. When you do the math, you see over time you are a winner if your "proven method" averages near 50% win ratio. This camp would also, generally speaking, never add to a losing position, "losers average losers" is something Paul Tudor Jones adheres to and would say is pivotal to his success.
The second camp, which only really experienced traders should entertain, will employ "mental" Stop Losses. There is a big problem with mental SL's for most people however, they will not adhere to them. So when positions get to this point instead of exiting with a small loss they now let the loss get bigger, in belief that things will turn around. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't, and they can really go a long long time before reversing (yeah, this is experience talking I took a monster loss in 2009
) Also in this camp, many will add to their position and essentially try to average down. Some traders will go a step farther and employ martingale tactics, so if down 100 pips on one lot, they will now buy 2 lots, and if price continues to move against them they will then buy 4 more lots. A lot of grey areas in between and even in each camp, but hopefully you get the idea here. As you can imagine, the second camp is trading with much more risk involved, and it is not recommended for inexperienced or the faint of heart.
Hope that helps. I would strongly recommend that unless someone is quite experienced they stick to camp 1, jmho.
- #33,413
- Apr 12, 2012 11:33am Apr 12, 2012 11:33am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,553 Posts
A fast word on SL's, for anyone fairly new or only trading a year or two. There are very generally speaking two school's of thought amongst experienced traders or two camps.
The first and more popular would never add to a losing position, something Paul Tudor Jones adheres to and would say is pivotal to his success.
The second camp will employ "mental" Stop Losses (often ignored) and essentially try to average down (if trade goes against them).
A lot of grey areas in between and even in each camp....(but) strongly recommend stick to camp 1...
- #33,415
- Apr 12, 2012 12:05pm Apr 12, 2012 12:05pm
- | Joined Mar 2012 | Status: PA & VSA "lead" the way | 414 Posts
jayjonbeach, an excellent, informative post.
So many good trading books out there that I hope people would read before trading live, even experienced people should never stop trying to learn.
- #33,418
- Edited 12:59pm Apr 12, 2012 12:37pm | Edited 12:59pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,553 Posts
EU Comment:
I think we now have confirmation of what has been going on all day today. There was just a spike up with highest activity at the end of the spike (see M1 chart on your own), and followed by continued high activity. Since nobody in their right mind drives the price up on themselves first, to build a long position, this is obviously selling motivated price manipulation. And I think this is just a "capsule" example of what has been going on all day throughout the time the BBs have had the price above the half number. Simply stated, today market movers have employed trickery to coax in longs while they closed longs and built short positions at satisfyingly high prices.
The move up today, as stated before, was certainly a SonicR long setup that was tradeable, if you were so inclined. Master Sonicdeejay has been talking about being picky. For me, the USD has been getting positive releases (overall) for months now, while the euro seems hardly able to step back from the precipice overlooking Hell. There is the true relative value of the euro vs USD, and there is the propped up fictional value of the euro vs USD. We can trade both long and short. But for my money, I feel safer most of the time now waiting to trade short, because at any time that propped up "fictional" value of the euro might suddenly get its legs pulled out from under it should professional trading organizations decide to give in to reality.
-tah
I think we now have confirmation of what has been going on all day today. There was just a spike up with highest activity at the end of the spike (see M1 chart on your own), and followed by continued high activity. Since nobody in their right mind drives the price up on themselves first, to build a long position, this is obviously selling motivated price manipulation. And I think this is just a "capsule" example of what has been going on all day throughout the time the BBs have had the price above the half number. Simply stated, today market movers have employed trickery to coax in longs while they closed longs and built short positions at satisfyingly high prices.
The move up today, as stated before, was certainly a SonicR long setup that was tradeable, if you were so inclined. Master Sonicdeejay has been talking about being picky. For me, the USD has been getting positive releases (overall) for months now, while the euro seems hardly able to step back from the precipice overlooking Hell. There is the true relative value of the euro vs USD, and there is the propped up fictional value of the euro vs USD. We can trade both long and short. But for my money, I feel safer most of the time now waiting to trade short, because at any time that propped up "fictional" value of the euro might suddenly get its legs pulled out from under it should professional trading organizations decide to give in to reality.
-tah
