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EUR/CHF

  • #5,261
  • Apr 12, 2012 8:57am Apr 12, 2012 8:57am
Quoting coolkaps4u
Now you are talking fundamentals.. which make sense.
I agree real money going into CHF because of europe situation.
Local business impact yes But latest data KOF,CPI,PPI indicates and survey by WSJ show, its not bad but rather doing OK now.
Also seasonal factors are adding new jobs and reducing jobless rate in swiss.

All these factors not giving SNB reason to raise the peg as if now
If condition detoriates as Jordan said biggest being

Deflation/CPI
Industial production/PPI,KOF

They will take action political factors will play if labor minister,economic...
In my very modest opinion, there is no way that CHF can be 10% above CAD. Fundamentaly worst case scenario should be parity. Swiss economy is slugish at best, on the edge of deflation. Dont forget that winter season just finished so lets see the numbers that will come out when tourists go somewhere else
  • #5,262
  • Apr 12, 2012 9:00am Apr 12, 2012 9:00am
Quoting Mishko212
In my very modest opinion, there is no way that CHF can be 10% above CAD. Fundamentaly worst case scenario should be parity. Swiss economy is slugish at best, on the edge of deflation. Dont forget that winter season just finished so lets see the numbers that will come out when tourists go somewhere else
CAD is right.. I agree..

It should be parity and it will be with the time.. EUR/CHF.. will take some time
  • #5,263
  • Apr 12, 2012 9:01am Apr 12, 2012 9:01am
Quoting Helloguys
pal please be more careful not to express political opinions in a forex forum.
even if this was not your purpose as it is clear, in anycase you did
Yes, its what I read in wsj,ft.com etc.. not my views in anyway.
As I am in US and don't have business except trading..
so chill out..
  • #5,264
  • Apr 12, 2012 9:09am Apr 12, 2012 9:09am
Quoting coolkaps4u
Yes, its what I read in wsj,ft.com etc.. not my views in anyway.
As I am in US and don't have business except trading..
so chill out..
no problem...
There shall be no QE3
  • #5,265
  • Apr 12, 2012 9:34am Apr 12, 2012 9:34am
The situation here in FF is getting hot, let's just respect each other opinions, at the end nobody know what will happen, probably even the snb don't know yet what they will do in the near future, so let's relax.

We are now very near to the "judgment day" for the bears, i hope everybody who sell have a good stoploss in place and is not overleveraging, this baby will go down for the last time, and probably next week we all will be happy.

Hold the line!
  • #5,266
  • Apr 12, 2012 9:39am Apr 12, 2012 9:39am
Quoting tunera
The situation here in FF is getting hot, let's just respect each other opinions, at the end nobody know what will happen, probably even the snb don't know yet what they will do in the near future, so let's relax.

We are now very near to the "judgment day" for the bears, i hope everybody who sell have a good stoploss in place and is not overleveraging, this baby will go down for the last time, and probably next week we all will be happy.

Hold the line!
agreed with the entire statement.
  • #5,267
  • Apr 12, 2012 9:52am Apr 12, 2012 9:52am
Someone knows exactly the times of D-day?
  • #5,268
  • Apr 12, 2012 9:55am Apr 12, 2012 9:55am
We don't even know if the D-day will ever come
It may be anyday between today and the next 10 years
  • #5,269
  • Apr 12, 2012 9:58am Apr 12, 2012 9:58am
The vols have gone back down. The market is pricing in a tight range going forward.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/eurchf_vol_term_3.png

For compassion, here is the USD/JPY vol term structure. Notice the volatility scale, the expected volatility is 6 times larger (9% versus 1.5%):

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/usd_jpy_vol_term.png
  • #5,270
  • Apr 12, 2012 9:58am Apr 12, 2012 9:58am
Quoting sonmeman
Someone knows exactly the times of D-day?
No timing.. only guesses..

I think one leg down to take some stop losses and than UP... June end...
Barring Greece/Spain/Portugal bond yields stay low..

I would like to see how many tourist like to visit swiss franc at this rate the more tourist industry gets hurt.. more chances of UP. and political pressure come up.. seeing it end of june and at the most August..
  • #5,271
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:16am Apr 12, 2012 10:16am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...bank-says.html

http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/...0120412163299/

some reads and thoughts...
  • #5,272
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:19am Apr 12, 2012 10:19am
Quoting coolkaps4u
No timing.. only guesses..

I think one leg down to take some stop losses and than UP... June end...
Barring Greece/Spain/Portugal bond yields stay low..

I would like to see how many tourist like to visit swiss franc at this rate the more tourist industry gets hurt.. more chances of UP. and political pressure come up.. seeing it end of june and at the most August..
I prefer it happens earlier, but with Jordan we must wait. SNB should prepare CHF to help the ceremony of Mr. Jordan tomorrow. However, like usual, he only presents ... unlimited statement, unlimited, silence, unlimited quiet, unlimited tension, unlimited doubt, unlimited nothing
  • #5,273
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:23am Apr 12, 2012 10:23am
but after all, who cares!
I mean, yes the news and opinions of economists or bloggers are a nice way to spend few minutes reading them, but if you trade basing your decision on other people's opinions, then it's better change job.
  • #5,274
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:28am Apr 12, 2012 10:28am
Last week was not the first time when the SNB had a "technical glitch". It also happened in 2010:

Quote
It also seems that the SNB did not realize that most banks trading in Asia couldn’t actually deal on the price, because credit limits are assigned locally by region.

As the SNB has not intervened in Asia for ages, if ever at all, few banks in Asia have credit lines programmed in EBS even though they genuinely have big lines.

The result was a temporary two-tier market – those with credit in EBS for the SNB and those without. The rate dealt over 100 times, but for the vast majority of the market, it was not tradable. That won’t please...
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010...sia-overnight/
  • #5,275
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:35am Apr 12, 2012 10:35am
Quoting sonmeman
SNB should prepare CHF to help the ceremony of Mr. Jordan tomorrow.
Guys, I told you - the official appointment of presumably Mr Jordan will be next Thursday - use google and you will find it.

I totally agree with Mishko212 - most brokers do not route the retail long positions on the Interbank market - a friend of mine working for a small bucket shop confirmed to me that they do not hedge their clients' long positions in EURCHF. Thus, our long positions do not counteract the fundamental demand for francs on the market - hence the downward pressure on the EURCHF...

I hope SNB realise this and will not have anything against punishing the numerous bucket shops out there
  • #5,276
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:45am Apr 12, 2012 10:45am
Quoting Igrach
I hope SNB realise this and will not have anything against punishing the numerous bucket shops out there
they dont give a f**k. they only care about their economy, not with average joe's forex account....
  • #5,277
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:46am Apr 12, 2012 10:46am
Quoting Igrach
Guys, I told you - the official appointment of presumably Mr Jordan will be next Thursday - use google and you will find it.

I totally agree with Mishko212 - most brokers do not route the retail long positions on the Interbank market...
and lets say that snb move peg to 1,25 or 1,35.

all those brokers market-makers will be able to pay those longs? i dont think so.
There shall be no QE3
  • #5,278
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:49am Apr 12, 2012 10:49am
Quoting Helloguys
and lets say that snb move peg to 1,25 or 1,35.

all those brokers market-makers will be able to pay those longs? i dont think so.
they must be able to. there are shorts on the other side.
  • #5,279
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:50am Apr 12, 2012 10:50am
Quoting Helloguys
and lets say that snb move peg to 1,25 or 1,35.

all those brokers market-makers will be able to pay those longs? i dont think so.
this actually is a very good point - I hope mine will be able to, but who knows?
  • #5,280
  • Apr 12, 2012 10:52am Apr 12, 2012 10:52am
Quoting worsttrader
they must be able to. there are shorts on the other side.
ok, this is not the main question of the thread but in your answer just think that long are 90% and shotrs i am sure they have sl over 1,2150 maximum if they are not totaly fools.

i do not worry about me, cause i only scalp it, just was thinking that many brokers will not answer phones if peg moves higher
There shall be no QE3
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