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Joined Feb 2012
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Status: "May the odds be ever against you"
|457 Posts
Waiting for buy order to be filled..1.1950.. and 1.185.. Goldman has raised the speculation to get themselves out at break even.. they recommended this as trade of the year
But if you see previous year recommendations.. they done really bad.. they had reputation of playing against their clients.. check latest email from the guy who resigned and reveal their practices..
SNB will not make everyone in the world rich like that.. we may see some floor testing down and than may UP..economy is good..is swiss
Only thing is spring season.. they may see less tourist if franc remain high so I am expecting testing of the floor and than rise in June..
yes, floor testing will be vigorous to take stops and bump up there after.
Waiting for buy order to be filled..1.1950.. and 1.185.. Goldman has raised the speculation to get themselves out at break even.. they recommended this as trade of the year
But if you see previous year recommendations.. they done really bad.. they had reputation of playing against their clients.. check latest email from the guy who resigned and reveal their practices..
SNB will not make everyone in the world rich like that.. we may see some floor testing down and than may UP..economy is good..is swiss
Only thing is spring season.. they may...
I see that some people here constantly talk about breaking the peg. When was the last time that Chinese peg VS USD was broken? Also who is that Big Kahuna who will place sell order at 1.20 against SNB and the rest of the world, to scrab 5 pips at best. Whoever opened long position EUR/CHF keep it open and forget about it. Same was with USD/YEN. It dragged for months before lifting up. CHF simply attracts tons of "shady" funds and in my opinion Swiss can hide it properly only if it gets converted, which keeps the preassure on. I follow RBC (Banc of Canada) monthly statement and in April 2012 was the first time that they excluded CHF from their charts. All other pirs are there except for CHF. Maybe they know something we dont
I see that some people here constantly talk about breaking the peg. When was the last time that Chinese peg VS USD was broken? Also who is that Big Kahuna who will place sell order at 1.20 against SNB and the rest of the world, to scrab 5 pips at best. Whoever opened long position EUR/CHF keep it open and forget about it. Same was with USD/YEN. It dragged for months before lifting up. CHF simply attracts tons of "shady" funds and in my opinion Swiss can hide it properly only if it gets converted, which keeps the preassure on. I follow RBC (Banc...
Ignored
Funny.. one more self consolation..
If no one is placing order.. everyone is buying than why pair is going down..
EURO is the main worry and if it get stable we all will see rise in this pair.
If spain/portugal or so called PIGS nation need more bail out.. fund will start going to CHF
How long germany can bail out all these nations.. Germans are fed up of giving their hard earned money to other nations like Greece.. who don't control their budget and still live a lavish life.
Merkel and Sarkozy under pressure as election year goes ahead.. so all these factors are driving it down..and I still believe it will.. since how long you can support a titanic it will fall soon.. in 3D way...
If SNB wants to deter they can easily do that by increasing CHF liquidity so whosoever want to buy... buy it.. its cheap.. that is not happening.. Demand is still more than supply.....Swiss finance minister purposes some tax, negative tax that would be another leg up but they failed last time when purposed.. so let's C... I maintain my vies.. These speculations..and new president is keeping it floating for a day or two.. when rumors come.. see the difference b/w its rise and fall ratio is 30:3 (Fall 30 pips and rise 3 pips)
Funny.. one more self consolation..
If no one is placing order.. everyone is buying than why pair is going down..
EURO is the main worry and if it get stable we all will see rise in this pair.
If spain/portugal or so called PIGS nation need more bail out.. fund will start going to CHF
How long germany can bail out all these nations.. Germans are fed up of giving their hard earned money to other nations like Greece.. who don't control their budget and still live a lavish life.
Merkel and Sarkozy under pressure as election year goes ahead.....
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Sorry, no offence at all, have you ever been to Europe or Switzerland?
The pair is going down because whoever brings (real) money to Switzerland converts it immediatelly (I lived there for about 2 years in 06/07 so everybody there knows the source of Swiss well being). Large number of speculators trade via online brokers who dont really buy/sell anything, so their positions dont affect the exchange rate. Clients are simply betting against the broker (with few honorable expeptions Deutsche Bank, TD Bank, CitiFX etc). So when you do the math:
Q: Why is the rate going down if 98% of the traders are long :
A: Because their brokers never entered the market
It is going down because the inflow of real money gets convereted into CHF
Q: Does it affect local businesses
A: Ask whoever owns a grocery store or sells anything within 50 miles from the borders
if Euro breaks, this time for real, it means dropping portugal, spain, italy out of EZ there will so much chaos on markets that all of our fx accounts will vanish along with market makers, brokers and invest banks... maybe few futures account survive
recently i talked to risk manager of saxobank who said in that case we will return to caves
in other point if euro will go slowly down against USD, YEN, CNH... on risk pressure, ECB QE, elections and so
the peg will survive no matter on what rate 1.2, 1.3 because SNB has means and interest to do so...
In the current situation CHF safe heaven status might be changed. Is it safe to put money in CHF when SNB claims they expect it to depreciate?
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If lets say rate moves up to 1.25, people will "lose" about 4% of their CHF holdings (assuming that they exchanged it at 1.20). Most of the poeple who "park" their assets in Swiss have the ways to hedge against it (with a help of their bankers/advisers).
The question is: How an average Swiss Joe & Jane Shmoe live with overpriced currency, if they sell anything that sells accross the border 20-30% cheaper
The pair is going down because whoever brings (real) money to Switzerland converts it immediatelly (I lived there for about 2 years in 06/07 so everybody there knows the source of Swiss well being). Large number of speculators trade via online brokers who dont really buy/sell anything, so their positions dont affect the exchange rate. Clients are simply betting against the broker (with few honorable expeptions Deutsche Bank, TD Bank, CitiFX etc). So when you do the math:
Q: Why is the rate going down if 98% of the traders are long :
A: Because...
Ignored
Now you are talking fundamentals.. which make sense.
I agree real money going into CHF because of europe situation.
Local business impact yes But latest data KOF,CPI,PPI indicates and survey by WSJ show, its not bad but rather doing OK now.
Also seasonal factors are adding new jobs and reducing jobless rate in swiss.
All these factors not giving SNB reason to raise the peg as if now
If condition detoriates as Jordan said biggest being
Deflation/CPI
Industial production/PPI,KOF
They will take action political factors will play if labor minister,economic minister purposes some taxes.. I don't see it in this quater.. next probably till than floor should hold.. that depend on EURO than alone SNB
See my counter view on eur weakness couple of pages ago. In q4 2011 eu wasnt doing better or worse, echf was above1.24. Since january eurusd up 500 points...where is echf?
What was the rate when Eur was almost 1.5 to usd last year? Again, respect you views no offence.
See my counter view on eur weakness couple of pages ago. In q4 2011 eu wasnt doing better or worse, echf wad above 1.24. Since january eur up 500 points...where is echf?
What was the rate when Eur was almost 1.5 to usd? Again, respect you views no offence.
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I agree with the views.. But I still believe EURO is UP because of LTRO and USD down because of QE.
Election year in USA so they are trying to make SPX high with QE and day QE stops we will USD strenght
CHF will weaken further if SNB do more monitory easing and inject more billions in the market.. they are maintaining high liquidity as they said... but still there balance sheet is way positive than EUR,USD.. which is in trillions negative
As per economists
EURO will contact this year/may grew (0.2-0.3%) and CHF will grew 2-3%
US will grew (2-3%)
What do you mean by TD Bank exactly?
And does Deutsche Bank provide retail forex - I heard they did but closed it.
Sorry for off topic.
Ignored
Yes Deutsche was closed in US, but is alive in England. TD Bank is actually TD Ameritrade (they have Thinkorswim forex platform). They are actually buying/selling our positions to retail banks (not just taking virtual orders). The beat indicator is asking your broker:
Is my account inssured?
Deutsche, TD and Citi's accounts are inssured
If the answer is NO, you are betting against your broker
[quote=coolkaps4u;5564904 Germans are fed up of giving their hard earned money to other nations like Greece.. who don't control their budget and still live a lavish life.
[/QUOTE]
pal please be more careful not to express political opinions in a forex forum.
even if this was not your purpose as it is clear, in anycase you did
