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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #307,521
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:28pm Apr 11, 2012 9:28pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting bguguen
BOJ and Swissy is opposite of what China is facing...
China made it a regulation to keep the Yuan Down...

While BOJ and Swissy, are literally free floating currency... they are literally facing a High Demand of their currency which is killing their economy... Well BOJ atleast... Swissy not so much... cant think of what Swissy can export other than chocolate... tourism and ummmm watches... but swissy economy is driven by Banks again....

If china were to allow the Yuan to be a floating currency... i'd imagine china would be facing the same problem...
Yes bg. I understand the underlying dynamic of how a country's exchange rate directly impacts their economy. I also know about the history of the BOJ & the swissy both conducting central bank interventions to offset this. And yes we can agree that BOJ & Swissy are both floating and the Yuan is not -- and we can also agree on the impact a floating Yuan would have for Chinese exports.

Can anyone answer the original question as to WHY the Yuan is not a floating currency?
  • #307,522
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:32pm Apr 11, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting bguguen
not only that... if you think that was crafty.... look what they are doing to the US economy....

China Cheap products... are being sold to US....
China Lends Money to US so that US could buy Chinese Products...
therefore China attracts Jobs away from the US...

Someone dare say Triple Fucking the US economy??
Well that is true if the US is ever gona pay back the debt to china....
Isn't that why they hedging with gold?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #307,523
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:32pm Apr 11, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting eggs
Yes bg. I understand the underlying dynamic of how a country's exchange rate directly impacts their economy. I also know about the history of the BOJ & the swissy both conducting central bank interventions to offset this. And yes we can agree that BOJ & Swissy are both floating and the Yuan is not -- and we can also agree on the impact a floating Yuan would have for Chinese exports.

Can anyone answer the original question as to WHY the Yuan in not a floating currency?
to answer that question it is as simple as saying "Demand Management"
simply because they make money when Yuan is not floating...

Sometimes you need to answer a question with a question...

If you say Why the Yuan is not floating?
i'd ask
Why the Yuan should be floating?? (well they wont... the world demand for yuan is gona shoot the value up overnight and kill its exports...)
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #307,524
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:32pm Apr 11, 2012 9:32pm
managed to get in earlier on asia today.. i wouldn't favor long since quite a number of wicks on the previous candles at about 593x price level.. several datas coming out today, might see a lot of actions in cable..
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  • #307,525
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:35pm Apr 11, 2012 9:35pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
I mean if the BOJ needs to intervene from time to time as they have in the past as we would assume China would need to on a regular basis then why is the YEN simply NOT a floating rate as well.

I mean if this is the main factor then WHY not?

I hope this clarifies what I'm driving at.

Does the Chinese government simply buy up all the available Yuans on the open market or what?
  • #307,526
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:37pm Apr 11, 2012 9:37pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Isn't that why they hedging with gold?
here's a funny question... remember the whole debate about Gold Bullion... Well i guess the Chinese are buying Gold form the US afterall...
now i wonder who said China was sitting on gold in the ground themselves...
well if they are sitting on gold why dont they dig that gold up and make it of value instead of BUYing gold bullion from US...

anyways GOOD Question here... but id like to bring the fact that GOLD worths as much as the Demand drives it... theres no real value of Gold...
i think if gold had no demand the actual value of gold is about 300USD per bar...

Problem is gold has never been a "REAL" safe haven to economic crisis...
The whole Gold price rising has made me re think a bit of the Dutch Tulip Bubble...
The Gold price is a huge bubble built by speculation as long as there are demands for it, speculation can exist and push gold further up... but as we are seeing... how gold can tank like 200 usd in a day makes you wonder if gold is of value....

If suddenly gold is as i fear a bubble fueled by speculation.... just liek House prices were in US... what would happen to China if value of gold became trash value??
and what would happen to Australia when China suffers that fate??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #307,527
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:38pm Apr 11, 2012 9:38pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting bguguen
to answer that question it is as simple as saying "Demand Management"
simply because they make money when Yuan is not floating...

Sometimes you need to answer a question with a question...

If you say Why the Yuan is not floating?
i'd ask
Why the Yuan should be floating?? (well they wont... the world demand for yuan is gona shoot the value up overnight and kill its exports...)

Thanks. Much better answer. I like the way you put it. So conversely we could ask

"Why is the Yen floating"?

Then You answer

"Why should the Yen be floating"?
  • #307,528
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:39pm Apr 11, 2012 9:39pm
Quoting A-speculator
managed to get in earlier on asia today.. i wouldn't favor long since quite a number of wicks on the previous candles at about 593x price level.. several datas coming out today, might see a lot of actions in cable..
I hope your right I shorted about there also. Never thought I'd say this but hope she drops
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #307,529
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:41pm Apr 11, 2012 9:41pm
Quoting eggs
I mean if the BOJ needs to intervene from time to time as they have in the past as we would assume China would need to on a regular basis then why is the YEN simply NOT a floating rate as well.

I mean if this is the main factor then WHY not?

I hope this clarifies what I'm driving at.

Does the Chinese government simply buy up all the available Yuans on the open market or what?
YEN was and still IS a floating rate... as you can see you can trade the Yen at 50 pips move and stuff...
but China fixes their exchange rate by the 100th Pips... over night too...

thats the diffference between floating and fixed exchange rate...
Fixed Exchange rate is Fixed to a certain value over night.. theres no Up or down at all... until its fixed at another price...

While YEN... a floating currency, you can see it move to 76 before being pushed up by BOJ up to 83 or something then Demand comes back in for Yen and we're down to 80.....

the SWISSy is also a Floating Currency... you can see fluctuatins of +30 and -5 pips on the 1.20 boundary of EURCHF... but GBPCHF and USDCHF is still floating around....

so i STRESS AGAIN... GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION doesnt mean a currency is a FIXED rate currency....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #307,530
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:42pm Apr 11, 2012 9:42pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting bguguen
here's a funny question... remember the whole debate about Gold Bullion... Well i guess the Chinese are buying Gold form the US afterall...
now i wonder who said China was sitting on gold in the ground themselves...
well if they are sitting on gold why dont they dig that gold up and make it of value instead of BUYing gold bullion from US...

anyways GOOD Question here... but id like to bring the fact that GOLD worths as much as the Demand drives it... theres no real value of Gold...
i think if gold had no demand the actual value of gold is about...

Another GOOD point bg & very thorough explanation. I will say however the idea that the "value" of gold is mere speculation that COULD or WOULD or SHOULD wind up as "trash" is a bit of a stretch. I see your point...but that's a tough pill to swallow
  • #307,531
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:46pm Apr 11, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting eggs
Another GOOD point bg & very thorough explanation. I will say however the idea that the "value" of gold is mere speculation that COULD or WOULD or SHOULD wind up as "trash" is a bit of a stretch. I see your point...but that's a tough pill to swallow
I know its s tough pill to swallow and a stretch...

but the Gold mania we saw is no different from the tulip mania... or the us housing market mania...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

They are all Bubbles waiting to burst...

one day some one will realize there are better commodities to buy as a form of risk heaven....

Some body say Oil... (very true as oil holds a constant demand, but as alternative energy comes up... the constant demand for oil may be shrinking)
or maybe Food (May happen in 50 years or so when the population is too enormous to a point food becomes a rarity...)
or or maybe.... anyways you see my drift right??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #307,532
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:47pm Apr 11, 2012 9:47pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting bguguen
YEN was and still IS a floating rate... as you can see you can trade the Yen at 50 pips move and stuff...
but China fixes their exchange rate by the 100th Pips... over night too...

thats the diffference between floating and fixed exchange rate...
Fixed Exchange rate is Fixed to a certain value over night.. theres no Up or down at all... until its fixed at another price...

While YEN... a floating currency, you can see it move to 76 before being pushed up by BOJ up to 83 or something then Demand comes back in for Yen and we're down to 80.....

the...
aahhaa. thats the info i was after. thanks again bg
  • #307,533
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:48pm Apr 11, 2012 9:48pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I hope your right I shorted about there also. Never thought I'd say this but hope she drops
i don't know that mate, i trade based on the previous resistance level.. and my stop is just above it..
  • #307,534
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:51pm Apr 11, 2012 9:51pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting bguguen
I know its s tough pill to swallow and a stretch...

but the Gold mania we saw is no different from the tulip mania... or the us housing market mania...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

They are all Bubbles waiting to burst...

one day some one will realize there are better commodities to buy as a form of risk heaven....

Some body say Oil... (very true as oil holds a constant demand, but as alternative energy comes up... the constant demand for oil may be shrinking)
or maybe Food (May happen in 50 years or so when the population...

Totally. & your definitely right about all bubbles eventually bursting. Its funny you mentioned Gold & Food possibly the two oldest commodities on earth ehh??

Yeah I remember the tulips from the movie Wall Street. Pretty cool stuff I must say.
  • #307,535
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:53pm Apr 11, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting eggs
Totally. & your definitely right about all bubbles eventually bursting. Its funny you mentioned Gold & Food possibly the two oldest commodities on earth ehh??

Yeah I remember the tulips from the movie Wall Street. Pretty cool stuff I must say.
the tulip mania was scary... becaus prices of it reached a maximum of 10 folds before it collapsed and it happen just about a year period...
i wonder if gold is gona collapse like that when it 10 folds... but where should be start looking at gold price 10 folding from??
Oooo Ooo
Maybe its already happening... if gold prices start aound 190.. we sure 10 folded at 1900 and hence the drop we had... some say we might see gold drop to 1300... sooo who knows... maybe the world is coming to an end??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #307,536
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:53pm Apr 11, 2012 9:53pm
look like he's ready to hit 1.6000 area
  • #307,537
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:54pm Apr 11, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting PoundTrader
look like he's ready to hit 1.6000 area

6020 here we come
  • #307,538
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:54pm Apr 11, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting bguguen
here's a funny question... remember the whole debate about Gold Bullion... Well i guess the Chinese are buying Gold form the US afterall...
now i wonder who said China was sitting on gold in the ground themselves...
well if they are sitting on gold why dont they dig that gold up and make it of value instead of BUYing gold bullion from US...

anyways GOOD Question here... but id like to bring the fact that GOLD worths as much as the Demand drives it... theres no real value of Gold...
i think if gold had no demand the actual value of gold is...
Yes but not everyone gets crushed in a bubble, savvy investors who buy at the bottom and sell near the top make a killing. It takes a while to get gold out of the ground, why not buy it cheap in the meantime as china has done, so they can offload it when the printing presses start up again which from what I have read, is what is sending people to gold in the first place
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #307,539
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:55pm Apr 11, 2012 9:55pm
i watch very carefully how price progress in this area since i am short and currently in 4h there is only 1 closed bear candle.. got me into high alert mode..

later guys..
  • #307,540
  • Apr 11, 2012 9:55pm Apr 11, 2012 9:55pm
aussie aussie aussie
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