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EUR/CHF

  • #5,161
  • Apr 11, 2012 1:08pm Apr 11, 2012 1:08pm
wohoho, whats going on? we reached 20160, unbelievable. now go go go!
  • #5,162
  • Apr 11, 2012 1:10pm Apr 11, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting worsttrader
wohoho, whats going on? we reached 20160, unbelievable. now go go go!
-- Market pressure could prompt SNB to shift target to CHF1.25 earlier

-- Euro's rally to CHF1.4 unlikely in 2012; CHF1.35 more possible

-- BOJ to weaken yen more; dollar to hit Y105 before end of 2013


By Min Zeng
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With Swiss franc bulls testing the Swiss National Bank's CHF1.20 floor for the euro over the past week, high-profile Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O'Neill is cautioning investors not to underestimate the Swiss central bank's resolve.

O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes that if this market pressure continues to mount, the central bank may even up the ante by shifting the target from CHF1.20 to CHF1.25.

"The franc remains clearly over-valued and as their Finance and Economy Ministers have both said, a level around CHF1.35 to CHF1.40 would be more consistent," said O'Neill in an emailed interview Wednesday with Dow Jones Newswires.

If the market "won't take it there because of the European crisis, the policymakers are likely to further undertake steps to adjust it," said O'Neill. He declined to specify about when the SNB would shift the target, only saying that "possibly quite soon."

Questions have arisen on whether the SNB can safeguard its CHF1.2 target, which it first set in September as the Swiss franc's strength undermined the nation's economic competitiveness in the global markets. By pledging to spend an unlimited amount of francs to prevent the euro from dipping below 1.20, the bank has had significant success in forcing the market to honor this level.

Yet the euro, amid resurfacing fears about the euro zone's debt crisis, briefly dipped below CHF1.2 level last Thursday, a move that caught franc bears, O'Neill included, off guard. The breach prompted the SNB to spend EUR1 billion to bring the euro above that target, according to several traders.

With the euro trading around CHF1.2011 Wednesday, the risk of another breach is not completely out of the question, a threat admitted Tuesday by SNB's interim President Thomas Jordan. Though he said that the central bank's credibility hasn't suffered and that the SNB is "enforcing the minimum exchange rate with all the means at its disposal."

Even with the SNB intervention, so far this year, the euro is still down 1.3% against the franc. Since April 2011, the euro is down 8.2% against the franc.

O'Neill said a vacuum of leadership at SNB following Philipp Hildebrand's resignation as Chairman is one reason why some investors were bold to bet that the SNB could not safeguard the target. The latest development forced him to pull back a bit on his prediction in December that the euro would climb to CHF1.40.

"I think CHF1.40 is unlikely now and CHF1.35 is more possible," said O'Neill.

Selling francs versus the euro is one of his top currency trade recommendations for 2012. Another one is to sell the yen and buy the dollar.
  • #5,163
  • Apr 11, 2012 1:16pm Apr 11, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting tunera
-- Market pressure could prompt SNB to shift target to CHF1.25 earlier

-- Euro's rally to CHF1.4 unlikely in 2012; CHF1.35 more possible

-- BOJ to weaken yen more; dollar to hit Y105 before end of 2013


thank u
  • #5,164
  • Apr 11, 2012 1:16pm Apr 11, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting worsttrader
2020 tonight? reaching 2015 would be a miracle!
Well, let's hope that the other, bigger miracle will also happen soon: peg @1.3
  • #5,165
  • Edited 1:29pm Apr 11, 2012 1:18pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting Igrach
From http://www.handelszeitung.ch/konjunk...iger-zu-halten

There is no option of raising the peg for the SNB;
Too good economic data in Switzerland for the SNB to justify a raise in the peg
The only choice for SNB is to hang on until the clouds clear...

In essence: close the longs...
for me is simple as is:

Q:what is the monetary policy of SNB
A:inflation targeting (no double mandate like FED!)

Q:what is the inflation target of SNB
A:2%

Q:what is the current YoY inflation in SwLand (MoM is full of seasonal elements)?
A:-1%

Q:accelerating ?
A:yes, each month (since the introduction of the famous "peg" - see chart below)

Q:what measurements elaborated the responsible authority (SNB) so far to reach the inflation target?
A:NOTHING
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png Size: 18 KB
  • #5,166
  • Apr 11, 2012 1:21pm Apr 11, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting tunera
-- Market pressure could prompt SNB to shift target to CHF1.25 earlier

-- Euro's rally to CHF1.4 unlikely in 2012; CHF1.35 more possible

-- BOJ to weaken yen more; dollar to hit Y105 before end of 2013


By Min Zeng
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With Swiss franc bulls testing the Swiss National Bank's CHF1.20 floor for the euro over the past week, high-profile Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O'Neill is cautioning investors not to underestimate the Swiss central bank's resolve.

O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs...

I just hope for a 1.206 by Monday or Tuesday.
1.35 by end of year is a science fiction dream.
  • #5,167
  • Apr 11, 2012 1:26pm Apr 11, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting tunera
-- Market pressure could prompt SNB to shift target to CHF1.25 earlier

-- Euro's rally to CHF1.4 unlikely in 2012; CHF1.35 more possible

-- BOJ to weaken yen more; dollar to hit Y105 before end of 2013


By Min Zeng
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With Swiss franc bulls testing the Swiss National Bank's CHF1.20 floor for the euro over the past week, high-profile Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O'Neill is cautioning investors not to underestimate the Swiss central bank's resolve.

O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs...
I remember when EUR/USD rate was around 1,18-1,2 in 2010 with heavy EUR falling, and Jim O'Neill said its turning point in a Bloomberg interview. Everyone was expecting parity.

Despite he works for GS, he is one of the - few - moderate and credible guys that you can find on the market so far.
  • #5,168
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:08pm Apr 11, 2012 2:08pm
I see the light!!!! I see the light!
  • #5,169
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:08pm Apr 11, 2012 2:08pm
fat finger??
  • #5,170
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:10pm Apr 11, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting tunera
-- Market pressure could prompt SNB to shift target to CHF1.25 earlier

-- Euro's rally to CHF1.4 unlikely in 2012; CHF1.35 more possible

-- BOJ to weaken yen more; dollar to hit Y105 before end of 2013


By Min Zeng
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With Swiss franc bulls testing the Swiss National Bank's CHF1.20 floor for the euro over the past week, high-profile Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O'Neill is cautioning investors not to underestimate the Swiss central bank's resolve.

O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management,...
http://www.dowjones.com/products/djf...radeIn2012.asp

This is from Dec'2011...Almost the same article...Min Zeng is doing a very good job copying/pasting and doing some small modifications..
All these rumors about rising the cap, breaking it, reminds me about Nostradamus predictions : nobody knows what will happen, only after will happen and they are all saying "Nostradamus predicted this, but we were stupid to realize at that time!" )....We should always believe Nostradamus, right? ....come on...

At least I took the money for beer for today....it was 1.20230....now go down
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #5,171
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:22pm Apr 11, 2012 2:22pm
Quoting cipid2012
http://www.dowjones.com/products/djf...radeIn2012.asp

This is from Dec'2011...Almost the same article...Min Zeng is doing a very good job copying/pasting and doing some small modifications..
All these rumors about rising the cap, breaking it, reminds me about Nostradamus predictions : nobody knows what will happen, only after will happen and they are all saying "Nostradamus predicted this, but we were stupid to realize at that time!" )....We should always believe Nostradamus,...
I think people thought this guy jim o'neill was some swiss official....
The way forexfactory publish the news is so manipulating...
Probably forexfactory owner is making tons of $$ out of this "news"

It hit 1.2031...
I think 1.203x will be a strong resistence
  • #5,172
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:23pm Apr 11, 2012 2:23pm
It was up to 1.2034 on my chart and backed down to 1.2021.
(now slowly going up again)

What do you think at what level the bears start panicking and closing their positions?
1.2050?
  • #5,173
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:24pm Apr 11, 2012 2:24pm
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012...+goldman+sachs
  • #5,174
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:25pm Apr 11, 2012 2:25pm
Quoting kelkaposzta
It was up to 1.2034 on my chart and backed down to 1.2021.
(now slowly going up again)

What do you think at what level the bears start panicking and closing their positions?
1.2050?
Szia,

2060-70, 2150
  • #5,175
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:29pm Apr 11, 2012 2:29pm
Quoting Simon73
Szia,

2060-70, 2150
i would rather agree with kelkaposzta, 1.2050 seems more realistic.
  • #5,176
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:30pm Apr 11, 2012 2:30pm
Quoting quadrifoglio
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012...+goldman+sachs
Again Nostradamus? ..see the comments above for the same article
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #5,177
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:30pm Apr 11, 2012 2:30pm
I think what happened in the last 20 minutes is a proof that the market just waits for a strong signal from swiss to buy again...
Or maybe SNB is behind this move... but I doubt it.
  • #5,178
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:31pm Apr 11, 2012 2:31pm
haha another 200 bucks!! i like to repeat myself dont speculate on interventions, just trade the hell out of this thing , buy every dip!!
consistency wins
  • #5,179
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:34pm Apr 11, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting worsttrader
i would rather agree with kelkaposzta, 1.2050 seems more realistic.
No post from the bears now?
  • #5,180
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:35pm Apr 11, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting rcrist
No post from the bears now?
the bears have becomed bulls, a little spike and everybody is bull again eheh
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