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EUR/CHF

  • #5,061
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:23am Apr 11, 2012 2:23am
Quoting tunera
Seriously, those who are looking for a floor-break or any more bearish activity, wake up! Bears have lost the game, we are gonig to see a nice time both in eurchf and in eurusd, the resurrection of eur is just beginning!
Go eur Go!!

My question is on what basis?
  • #5,062
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:24am Apr 11, 2012 2:24am
Quoting tunera
Seriously, those who are looking for a floor-break or any more bearish activity, wake up! Bears have lost the game, we are gonig to see a nice time both in eurchf and in eurusd, the resurrection of eur is just beginning!
Go eur Go!!
LOL, you must be in the "Europe is fixed" crowd. Here's the Spanish 10year chart for this morning!
Attached Image
  • #5,063
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:26am Apr 11, 2012 2:26am
Quoting zpiders
This pair is very "top" heavy. I hope everyone is trading with a tight stop! People who think this is going to magically go up are living in a dreamworld.
If this is the relevant market picture, then what is the reason of the price falling? Do you think this pair is overbought?
  • #5,064
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:29am Apr 11, 2012 2:29am
Quoting zpiders
LOL, you must be in the "Europe is fixed" crowd. Here's the Spanish 10year chart for this morning!
Good.. spain is going economically bad, we already know that.
But everything is priced in already, that's why i look mostly the technical side of the market, however have a nice trading
  • #5,065
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:31am Apr 11, 2012 2:31am
Quoting pipxster
If this is the relevant market picture, then what is the reason of the price falling? Do you think this pair is overbought?
If you look at the chart I posted, it shows retail buy positions. 90% of those positions are longs above the current market price. When retail positioning is heavily positioned on 1 side, market normally moves the other way.

I'm not long or short this pair, I'm just warning people not to get there hopes up too high and lose a lot of money.
  • #5,066
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:40am Apr 11, 2012 2:40am
Quoting Simon73
Read the Jordan yesterday text (http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id...410_tjn.en.pdf). Only 1 Billion Eur was enough to defend the peg. Jordan said:

"On the part of the SNB, the trading limits amount to some
hundreds of billions of euros a day. These limits can be flexibly adjusted by the SNB, should this be necessary. "

Where did you read that only 1 billion euro was enough to defend the peg ?
  • #5,067
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:42am Apr 11, 2012 2:42am
Ok, but now not GS or MS is on the line to catch stops but the whole swiss economy and a new CB leader trying to build reputation, therefore fx retail stops (that are already partly wiped) least important in this game I think. Happy trading!
  • #5,068
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:49am Apr 11, 2012 2:49am
Quoting luishk
Where did you read that only 1 billion euro was enough to defend the peg ?
There was a lot of source (forexlive/fxstreet etc), that the initial buy position was 10 billion, and this was 9 at the end of day.
  • #5,069
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:54am Apr 11, 2012 2:54am
Quoting pipxster
Ok, but now not GS or MS is on the line to catch stops but the whole swiss economy and a new CB leader trying to build reputation, therefore fx retail stops (that are already partly wiped) least important in this game I think. Happy trading!
I even did not mention probably the most important - the printing press, that also stands on the line...
  • #5,070
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:55am Apr 11, 2012 2:55am
Quoting iTrader
if this are your credible sources then i have one word for you -> noob.
Ha ha ha funny... analysis to console yourself...
Spain and Greece are sending money there to save themselves from Euro which is not stable and it will take lot of time to get stable.. may breakup at year end.. so funds are going into CHF. To them saving their lifetime saving matter rather than small exchange rate difference.

300 Billion eur/day, you know how much is foreign exchange funds CHF have check the data.. last intervention was 18 billion only.. so hold horses.. Peg will go down 4-5 times.. than it will come up again when CHF fundamental detoriates.. which is very strong for now..
  • #5,071
  • Apr 11, 2012 2:57am Apr 11, 2012 2:57am
Quoting coolkaps4u
Ha ha ha funny... analysis to console yourself...
Spain and Greece are sending money there to save themselves from Euro which is not stable and it will take lot of time to get stable.. may breakup at year end.. so funds are going into CHF. To them saving their lifetime saving matter rather than small exchange rate difference.

300 Billion eur/day, you know how much is foreign exchange funds CHF have check the data.. last intervention was 18 billion only.. so hold horses.. Peg will go down 4-5 times.. than it will come up again when CHF fundamental...
cool, i imagine that you've closed your longs now, right?
  • #5,072
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:00am Apr 11, 2012 3:00am
Quoting pipxster
I even did not mention probably the most important - the printing press, that also stands on the line...
I have read Jordan's statement few times.
If he doesn't lie, it is practically breaking the floor is practically impossible.
He's talking about hundreds of billions....
In my opinion, the only way SLs below 1.199 can be hit is by platform spikes/bad brokerage, at least for the next few months...
  • #5,073
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:07am Apr 11, 2012 3:07am
Quoting rcrist
I have read Jordan's statement few times.
If he doesn't lie, it is practically breaking the floor is practically impossible.
He's talking about hundreds of billions....
In my opinion, the only way SLs below 1.199 can be hit is by platform spikes/bad brokerage, at least for the next few months...

If I understand correctly, SNB offers to buy unlimited EURCHF @ 1.20 at any time. Any bank that has an agreement with them can use this offer.
Why would a bank/brooker would sell EURCHF below 1.20 while they could sell for 1.20 to SNB?
  • #5,074
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:08am Apr 11, 2012 3:08am
Funny thing is that the bulls are in fact basing their positions on facts and statements directly from SNB, whereas the bears are basing their positions on hope and heresay.
  • #5,075
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:09am Apr 11, 2012 3:09am
Quoting zpiders
This pair is very "top" heavy. I hope everyone is trading with a tight stop! People who think this is going to magically go up are living in a dreamworld.
Do you have this picture on march 15? Before the last 100 pip spike. I wonder how was it.
http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...r-book#EUR/CHF
  • #5,076
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:10am Apr 11, 2012 3:10am
Quoting rcrist
I have read Jordan's statement few times.
If he doesn't lie, it is practically breaking the floor is practically impossible.
He's talking about hundreds of billions....
In my opinion, the only way SLs below 1.199 can be hit is by platform spikes/bad brokerage, at least for the next few months...
I think so too...This is why I wrote yesterday that we should find a broker in whom we can trust 100%. This means we should try to get an official statement that a broker does not only have limit agreements with snb but also will not show an ask price below 1,20 on it's platform as long as the snb offer is valid...In this statement should also be included what the maximum spread for eurchf would be...
  • #5,077
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:16am Apr 11, 2012 3:16am
Quoting profitoffx
I think so too...This is why I wrote yesterday that we should find a broker in whom we can trust 100%. This means we should try to get an official statement that a broker does not only have limit agreements with snb but also will not show an ask price below 1,20 on it's platform as long as the snb offer is valid...In this statement should also be included what the maximum spread for eurchf would be...
As i know, the snb offer standing at 1.2000 are at bid price, this mean that once they are in place and enough the bid price should never fall below 1.2000, the ask simply don't matter.
However, i see that the first spike (the one on friday if i remember well) happened in almost every broker, only swiss banks didn't fill orders below that level, in other words forget about find a magic retail broker, if you want to avoid the below 1.2000 trading just open a fx account with a swiss bank.

And most importantly, don't panic!
  • #5,078
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:27am Apr 11, 2012 3:27am
will there be any news from snb today? when will be the election? today?
  • #5,079
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:31am Apr 11, 2012 3:31am
morning sirs. i read all of ur comments since yesterday evening and it seems to me most of u, on both side, getting a little bit angry, nervous, upset.
pls never forget none of us here can influence the moving of eurchf, so being mad about it is totally unnecessary. only thing we can do is waiting patiently.
  • #5,080
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:36am Apr 11, 2012 3:36am
Quoting coolkaps4u
Ha ha ha funny... analysis to console yourself...
Spain and Greece are sending money there to save themselves from Euro which is not stable and it will take lot of time to get stable.. may breakup at year end.. so funds are going into CHF. To them saving their lifetime saving matter rather than small exchange rate difference.

300 Billion eur/day, you know how much is foreign exchange funds CHF have check the data.. last intervention was 18 billion only.. so hold horses.. Peg will go down 4-5 times.. than it will come up again when CHF fundamental...
Are you part of "collapse" group? ...if everybody will continue to park the money in CHF like Spain/Greece as you said, I will not be surprise when SNB will impose a tax to avoid too much appreciation of their currency. And then CHF will not be consider only a "heaven"...they will know how to do it in other ways, not by only pumping money to defend the peg.
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
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