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EUR/CHF

  • #4,981
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:38am Apr 10, 2012 7:38am
that jordan said nothing really exciting. bla bla bla bla the same old story. i dont expect to raise the peg, but i was expecting Swiss to do something to undervalue franc. but those guys are continiue to bla bla bla, and nothing more.

my speculation is that peg will hold for now making a scalping market 1,20-1,2150, but nothing more.
i had a leveraged long at 1,2010 and i closed it directly after that conference that told me nothing.
There shall be no QE3
  • #4,982
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:40am Apr 10, 2012 7:40am
Quoting worsttrader
what if there are some very very big amounts on buy side from hedge funds/black money?
they get stopped out? im not sure if any of the brokers would like to try what happens if they r 'tricky'...
Well... This is not true... Market Makers is currency market as jordan said he cannot control if anyone want to make loss.

Market Makers knows where are stops and where are buy order.
They can fill the stops without filling the buy orders from others.

Also reverse can be done.. they can hit stop and counter buy from there only to hedge..

Its all about brokers now.. SNB is clear they will maintain with major banks.. now if you are with small broker and market come close to floor..
It will break floor for sure for minutes as jordan said.. so shift to broker like dukascopy or bank brokers..

OANDA
FXCM
ALPARI
XE ETC
are not the right one..
  • #4,983
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:42am Apr 10, 2012 7:42am
Quoting coolkaps4u
This small move which you have seen is nothing But unwinding of some longs.
The big players can now easily come in low volatility and take the peg down for few minutes and broker will say we don't have agreement/cerdit line with SNB so
it went down for few minutes

I am sure
OANDA
FXCM
FOREXPRO
XE
ALPARI

They will do this very soon..

Thanks for agreeing to my comments now
First of all, brokers are not banks, what they are supposed to do is just show you the best bid and ask price of the top banks (usually the best 10 banks circa), then it's true there are soo many banks in the world and not all have tradition agreements with all, Friday six banks were involved in the transactions happened below the floor, and I read that the snb is not going to change their agreement/credit structure, so we may see temporarily trades take place below the floor again, this is something that can happen and is a good thing to know. Then, trade accordingly
  • #4,984
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:42am Apr 10, 2012 7:42am
i think this is the moment now when we can declare that, no one, or at least the 90% of traders here r not waiting intervention, right...?
  • #4,985
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:47am Apr 10, 2012 7:47am
Quoting worsttrader
i think this is the moment now when we can declare that, no one, or at least the 90% of traders here r not waiting intervention, right...?
Wait.. another retest of the peg maybe, i expect something to happen next week!
  • #4,986
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:48am Apr 10, 2012 7:48am
Quoting coolkaps4u
They can fill the stops without filling the buy orders from others.
:O

i can not imagine this. r u convinced about?
  • #4,987
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:49am Apr 10, 2012 7:49am
Quoting worsttrader
:O

i can not imagine this. r u convinced about?
coolkaps is just being delirious (sorry coolkaps ), this is a decentralized market but it is still a market after all, not an anarchic bullshit
  • #4,988
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:52am Apr 10, 2012 7:52am
Quoting tunera
coolkaps is just being delirious (sorry coolkaps ), this is a decentralized market but it is still a market after all, not an anarchic bullshit
"Since there is no compulsion to make transactions at the best prices, such anomalies cannot always be excluded, but they can only be maintained for a very short time," he said.

This is jordan not me..
You will soon see UBS quoting below.. this rate...and there is no obligation if they are ready to accept losses..
But in other case.. its Profit for banks quoting lower than higher SNB crooks knows that..
  • #4,989
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:53am Apr 10, 2012 7:53am
are there any clues for how long will they keep this floor?
  • #4,990
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:54am Apr 10, 2012 7:54am
Quoting tunera
coolkaps is just being delirious (sorry coolkaps ), this is a decentralized market but it is still a market after all, not an anarchic bullshit
"We have not been impressed by the recent ceiling management," JP Morgan Private Bank's chief currency strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman wrote in a note to clients Tuesday, before the SNB's fresh comments. Intervening from time to time around the CHF1.2050 to CHF1.2175 range would keep market participants "on guard" and bolster the SNB's position, she added.

Swiss bank UBS also said the breach of the CHF1.20 floor last week may have dented the SNB's credibility, making it harder to defend the franc's upper limit in future.

Another London-based analyst at a large foreign-exchange dealing bank, who did not wish to be named, also said that the SNB "would have to reconsider" the credit lines it has in place to ensure the franc's cap holds. "The market has smelt blood and may want to challenge the floor for real this time," he said.
  • #4,991
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:56am Apr 10, 2012 7:56am
Quoting worsttrader
i think this is the moment now when we can declare that, no one, or at least the 90% of traders here r not waiting intervention, right...?
yes and might this is what SNB wants because might they speculate is better for the manipulation on the pair, but is a clear message to the traders.
as i understand the message says :
(SHORTS AND LONGS) GET OUT YOU DONT KNOW WHAT WE ARE THINKING AND WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO.
There shall be no QE3
  • #4,992
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:57am Apr 10, 2012 7:57am
Quoting coolkaps4u
"Since there is no compulsion to make transactions at the best prices, such anomalies cannot always be excluded, but they can only be maintained for a very short time," he said.

This is jordan not me..
You will soon see UBS quoting below.. this rate...and there is no obligation if they are ready to accept losses..
But in other case.. its Profit for banks quoting lower than higher SNB crooks knows that..
Yes, he say basically if a bank is not interested to sell at the highest price, then this can happen.
Ok now, why a bank or a market partecipant would like to sell eurchf to a level below 1.20 knowning that such transaction will be a loosing one?
This is an interesting question, yeah stop hunting may be a good answer, so basically they would just sell below the floor, buy back at the floor for a little loss, but make profit from their clients loss. It's a weird thing but sadly can happen. IMO is a little bit not very ethical
  • #4,993
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:58am Apr 10, 2012 7:58am
Quoting coolkaps4u
"Since there is no compulsion to make transactions at the best prices, such anomalies cannot always be excluded, but they can only be maintained for a very short time," he said.

This is jordan not me..
You will soon see UBS quoting below.. this rate...and there is no obligation if they are ready to accept losses..
But in other case.. its Profit for banks quoting lower than higher SNB crooks knows that..
its absolutely okay, but i simply cant imagine that somes stopped out but the others order didnt comed into effect on the same price...
  • #4,994
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:59am Apr 10, 2012 7:59am
But still, i see all this uncertainy as a simple deterrent for those who want to become rich overnight by entering long with huge leverage, the message is something like "you that are buying with 400x leverage, you just know that you are going to be stopped out in a way or another".
Somebody is against the freelunch thing
  • #4,995
  • Apr 10, 2012 8:01am Apr 10, 2012 8:01am
Quoting Helloguys
yes and might this is what SNB wants
this is exactly what i insinuated
  • #4,996
  • Apr 10, 2012 8:04am Apr 10, 2012 8:04am
Quoting zoran22
are there any clues for how long will they keep this floor?

My view on the situation currently is that we will see another break of the floor and possibly a dip to 1.1950 but I don't think it will go under that. Once that happens I believe most longs will be cleared out and floor will raised.

I'm still favoring long, but in no way gonna go short.
  • #4,997
  • Apr 10, 2012 8:04am Apr 10, 2012 8:04am
all i want to say to all, stay wise and dont overleverage bulls and bears! dont overleverage always use your head in any direction.
consistency wins
  • #4,998
  • Apr 10, 2012 8:04am Apr 10, 2012 8:04am
Quoting worsttrader
this is exactly what i insinuated
read and the rest below pal
There shall be no QE3
  • #4,999
  • Apr 10, 2012 8:05am Apr 10, 2012 8:05am
Quoting tunera
But still, i see all this uncertainy as a simple deterrent for those who want to become rich overnight by entering long with huge leverage, the message is something like "you that are buying with 400x leverage, you just know that you are going to be stopped out in a way or another".
Somebody is against the freelunch thing
hey this whole peg thing has never been free lunch come on...! at the veery maximum it can be a good risk-return but not a free lunch on both sides everything can happen (remove the peg suddenly, tech failure, force majeure etc. etc.) - ie. peg raise sideways for months or years.
  • #5,000
  • Apr 10, 2012 8:06am Apr 10, 2012 8:06am
Quoting tunera
Yes, he say basically if a bank is not interested to sell at the highest price, then this can happen.
Ok now, why a bank or a market partecipant would like to sell eurchf to a level below 1.20 knowning that such transaction will be a loosing one?
This is an interesting question, yeah stop hunting may be a good answer, so basically they would just sell below the floor, buy back at the floor for a little loss, but make profit from their clients loss. It's a weird thing but sadly can happen. IMO is a little bit not very ethical
Yes, It can happen.. that my point.. We don't trade in bug millions/billions
They come for few second stop hunt losses.. and buy order is from them only and may be few others at lower price.. and price come up to 1.2000

But I believe floor is here to stay for now.. so if you are with good broker.. you should be good
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