EurAnalysis

Downward impulse is completed. Upward price movement expected.

I prefer the ALT2 scenario. Expect the unexpected

Here comes Benny. QE Yes ? QE No ? QE Maybe ?

Speech Is About To Start ...

Back To Watching WWE - More Action There...

Good night Harpy. I'm off to bed. Glad you enjoyed my writing.

Its 05:30 in the morning and have to go to work tomorrow around 11:30 so I am also of to bed , Good night....
About enjoying your writing , PT I always enjoy and honor your each single word ...You are 'My Man' , 'My Mentor'

A very clear weather forecast for today!

Calendar of Major Events

April 4: ECB rate decision; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
April 6: US payrolls and unemployment
April 9: China PPI and CPI
April 10: China trade balance; G7 meetings
April 12: China GDP (tentative)
April 13: US CPI
April 16: US retail sales
April 17: US housing starts and building permits
April 19: US existing home sales and Philly Fed Index
April 20: German Ifo business climate index
April 22: China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI; France Presidential election (1st round)
April 24: US new home sales; UK Q1 prelim GDP
April 25: FOMC rate decision and press conference
April 27: US Q1 advance GDP
April 30: China manufacturing PMI

May 1: ISM manufacturing PMI
May 3: ECB rate decision; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI
May 4: US payrolls and unemployment
May 6: France election (2nd round run-off); Greece election
May 7: China PPI and CPI; Australia trade balance; German factory orders and industrial production
May 9: China trade balance; France Q1 prelim GDP
May 15: US CPI and retail sales; Germany Q1 prelim GDP
May 16: US housing starts and building permits; FOMC minutes
May 17: China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI, US Philly Fed Index
May 18: German Ifo business climate index; G8 meeting (Camp David, Maryland)
May 22: US existing home sales
May 25: Summit of EU heads of state and government in Brussels
May 31: US Q1 prelim GDP (2nd reading), Irish Referendum on EU fiscal unity

Here is the bottom line on their review. Good views I share here.

Market Methadone

Elevated energy prices are one of the many factors central bankers are now weighing as they consider whether to keep feeding the markets more stimulus. If energy inflation persists for longer than expected, the Fed may find its two mandates working against each other. Price stability may demand a stronger dollar, but the promise of more extraordinary easing to foster job creation will continue to weigh on the dollar.

To avoid this dilemma the Fed will be hoping for better payrolls data in the months ahead. Monthly payrolls had been rising at a 200 thousand per month clip for three months, until the March data released on April 6 blunted the trend. One bad month could be an anomaly revised away in the April payrolls data, or it could be the start of a new soft patch that will leave markets begging for more stimulus. The housing market also had a good three-month stretch, with starts and permits seeing their highest levels since the global financial crisis began. Future housing data could help confirm the trends in evolving in the labor market.

The big turn in sentiment that started late last year largely came courtesy of central banks. After arranging a credit easing dollar swap with other global central banks, the ECB stepped in again with its LTRO, which finally stabilized the European situation. Meanwhile in the US, the four-month market reversal has been predicated on the so-called "Bernanke put" -- that is, if things don't improve the Fed will refresh its accommodation efforts with a third round of quantitative easing.

With Operation Twist expiring in June, and the Presidential race heating up, the Fed will likely want to act sooner rather than later to lay the groundwork for any new program (despite the Fed's claims it won't let the political calendar influence its decisions). Expectations are that the central bank will give some indication of its next potential QE move at the April FOMC meeting which is a two day meeting culminating is a press conference hosted by the Chairman.

Market watchers see the Fed having three options for additional easing measures: more QE, a "sterilized" QE, or an extension of Operation Twist. More outright quantitative easing (QE3) may be the least likely option at this point since the Fed has already tried it twice and Bernanke is on the record as saying each QE effort has diminishing returns. Press reports last month said that the Fed has discussed sterilized bond purchases, achieved by borrowing back money used to buy Treasuries or MBS at low interest rates, with the intent of easing concerns the newly printed money could increase future inflation pressure. However, Fed officials have subsequently denied any such discussions (Fisher on 3/19 and Plosser on 3/29).

The more open and transparent Fed that Bernanke has promoted could make his job more complicated in the months ahead. Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, has indicated that he will not take his foot off the pedal for fear of squelching a nascent recovery before it can sustain itself. Countering this position, the hawks have made it clear they see no need for more stimulus from the Fed unless the economy takes a dire turn. The standard bearer for the hawks this year is Richmond Fed President Lacker who established himself as the new dissenter by voting against a set date for the low rate pledge. The new rate path predictions begun this year have made it clear that there is a broad spectrum of opinions on when the tightening cycle should begin. Steering this more public than ever debate at the Fed will be Bernanke's biggest challenge in a Washington that has managed to politicize ever other facet of government (witness the Supreme Court decision on 'Obamacare' that could come down to a 5-4 vote). The rate path forecasts will get their first revision at the April 25 FOMC meeting, and because of its novelty any shift in the predictions this time out could be lent more weight than deserved as a signal that the central tendency of policy has shifted.

As of now, the majority of forecasters still include more Fed quantitative easing in their models. Until now, Bernanke has been stressing the downside risks, apparently determined to keep the promise of QE3 alive. Improving data trends and some of the most recent Fed commentary have created some doubts about more QE, however. In Congressional testimony in late March, the chairman made no reference at all to QE3 and minutes of the March 13 FOMC meeting suggested little discussion of the topic. It seems the Fed is now in a wait and see stance, and any indication that it might waive off QE3 might be a strong signal that the Fed feels the threat has passed, but this could have a perverse effect on markets that have become addicted to open handed stimulus.

Kicking the Habit

Markets have become hooked on central bank stimulus. The artificial accommodation provided by central banks has created market distortions, mostly for the good so far. But the government banks rightly fear that if it goes on much longer, the medicinal effect will turn to addiction which will make the withdrawal period that much harder.

Publically, central bankers have insisted this is not a concern -- the Fed has indicated extraordinarily low rates will continue for two more years and QE3 is not off the table, while ECB President Draghi has said outright that banks are "not addicted" to the LTRO. In their inner deliberations, monetary policy councils seem more worried about the addiction issue. Concerns about the consequences of pushing more stimulus through markets have led to a shift in central bank speak. The ECB has vowed that the LTRO will not be used again and the Fed has shown some signs it may withhold QE3 unless things get worse.

Signs of fading momentum in the US jobs market, significantly slower growth in China, or stumbles in fiscal consolidation in the EU could all prompt more policy intervention. While global growth is expected to slow this year, it is unclear whether it will slow enough to crimp the sentiment change that came in with the New Year. The three largest world economies -- the US, China, and Japan -- are all expected to report good growth in 2012, even if the European region drags down the global average with a mild recession. But if these forecasts don't meet expectations, the currency market, where the dollar has made only small inroads against other reserve currencies despite the US strength, is indicating the punters are betting that the Fed is still the most likely to intervene again. Meanwhile the bond market appears ready to put Spain to the test as its 10-year yield creeps higher again, and a Spanish scare could be exacerbated by the banks that used the cheap money from the LTRO to load up on more sovereign debt.

In Asia, China's economic rulers may be poised to deliver another analgesic rate cut. In Europe, events in Spain and Italy will be watched closely in the months ahead, as any further slippage from fiscal consolidation targets could trigger another tumult in the debt and credit markets, and draw the ECB back in. In the US, the Fed will have to decide within the next month whether it wants to replace Operation Twist or leave its final adrenaline shot in reserve. Central banks don't want to turn the stimulus drip off prematurely, but are looking toward a time when they can start unwinding extraordinary accommodation. The stimulus put in place this year has pushed off the withdrawal date to at least 2013, but the next task for central banks will be how to manage those expectations so that removing accommodation is perceived as a vote of confidence for the health of the market and not a reason for a relapse.

Thanks To Trade The News

Hi all

Even we keep going higher and higher,but there's still no a valid bull setup yet on daily formation

No piercing even we surpass the 50% candle and No Engulf even we covered the last candle,there are only shadow

From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Board members change but the US Federal Reserve will never change in a US election year.
QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes in the entire Western world.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...025_thumb1.jpg

Sony to cut 10,000 jobs worldwide, 6 percent of its workforce, through March 2013, reports say

By Associated Press, Updated: Monday, April 9, 9:10 AM

TOKYO — Sony Corp. will cut about 10,000 jobs worldwide over the next year as it tries to return to profit, Japanese news reports said Monday.
The Nikkei business daily and other media said Sony’s decision to slash 6 percent of its work force comes as it struggles with weak TV sales and swelling losses.

Sony spokeswoman Yoko Yasukouchi wouldn’t confirm the reports.
New CEO Kazuo Hirai is holding a press conference Thursday.
Sony has announced restructuring plans by selling its chemical unit. Sony is also merging its LCD panel operation with Toshiba and Hitachi. Yasukouchi said those changes could affect up to 5,000 employees who are subject to transfers.

Sony earlier this year reported a 159 billion yen ($2.1 billion) loss for the October-December quarter and more than doubled its projected loss for the full fiscal year through March 2013.
More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This is the start of alternatives being selected for replacement of US dollar treasury instruments, and the US dollar.

China Buys Most Japan Short-Term Debt in 1 1/2 Years
By Mariko Ishikawa and Shigeki Nozawa – Apr 8, 2012 8:37 PM MT
China bought the most short-term Japanese debt since May 2010 in February, according to data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance today.

The world’s largest holder of foreign-exchange reserves increased net purchases of short-term Japanese debt to 651 billion yen ($8 billion), the highest since May 2010, when China bought 694.8 billion yen, according to Japanese government data going back to 2005. China sold 268.8 billion yen of medium- and long-term Japanese bonds in February.

“China may have increased yen assets as the currency became cheaper,” said Akihiko Inoue, chief strategist in Tokyo at Mizuho Investors Securities Co., one of the 25 primary dealers obliged to bid at government debt sales. “The yen fell in February after the Bank of Japan (8301) eased policy.”

The yen reached 84.18 per dollar on March 15, the lowest since April 13, 2011, and was at 81.52 as of 12:28 p.m. in Tokyo. The currency dropped against all of its 16 major counterparts in February. Japan’s 10-year yields have fallen two basis points since the start of this year, and were at 0.96 percent today.

The BOJ on Feb. 14 unexpectedly added 10 trillion yen to an asset-purchase program and set an inflation goal of 1 percent after an economic slide fueled criticism it’s lagging behind efforts by other central banks to support growth.
More…


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
QE to infinity is certain.

Gold crash on Fed tightening and euro salvation looks premature
Until the rising reserve powers of Asia, Russia and the Gulf regain trust in the shattered credibility of the world’s two great fiat currencies – if they ever do – gold is unlikely to crash far or remain in the doldrums for long. `Peak gold’ cements the price floor in any case.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
9:00PM BST 08 Apr 2012

It has been an unsettling experience for late-comers who joined the gold rush near all-time highs of $1923 an ounce last September. The slide has become deeply threatening since the US Federal Reserve took quantitative easing (QE3) off the table six weeks ago – or appeared to do so – and signalled the start of a new tightening cycle. Spot gold ended the pre-Easter week at $1636.

“The game has changed,” says Dennis Gartman, apostle of the long rally who now scornfully tells gold bugs that he is just a “mercenary”, not a member of their cult. “They genuflect in gold’s direction; we merely acknowledge that it exists as a trading vehicle and nothing more. There are times to be bullish, and times to be bearish … to every season, as Ecclesiastes tells us.”

Gold has risen sevenfold from its nadir below $260 in 2001, that Indian summer of American hegemony, when the 10-year US Treasury bond was the ultimate “risk-free” asset , and Gordon Brown ordered the Bank of England to auction half its metal.

The stock markets of Europe, America, and Japan churned sideways over the same decade, and that precisely is the clinching argument against gold for contrarian traders. You avoid yesterday’s stars like the plague. “Gold is far too popular,” said James Paulsen from Wells Capital. It has reached a half-century high against a basket of indicators: equities, treasuries, homes, and workers’ pay.
More…


From WWW.JSMINESET.COM


Good Night !!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...with-bets.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iS_7HRHxwCig.jpg

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) trader Bruno Iksil’s outsized bets in credit derivatives are drawing attention to a little-known division that invests the company’s reserves and fueling a debate over whether banks are taking excessive risks with federally insured and subsidized money.
Iksil’s influence in the market has spurred some counterparts to dub him Voldemort, after the Harry Potter villain. He works in London in the bank’s chief investment office, which has assembled traders from across Wall Street to its staff of 400 who help oversee $350 billion in investments. While the firm describes the unit’s main task as hedging risks and investing excess cash, four hedge-fund managers and dealers say the trades are big enough to move indexes and resemble proprietary bets, or wagers made with the bank’s own money.
http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iRCEz5CN_vfs.jpg
Play Video Q


April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt talks about JPMorgan Chase & Co. trader Bruno Iksil's bets in credit derivatives and whether the so-called Volcker rule would prohibit the trades. Pitt speaks on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness With Margaret Brennan." (Source: Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iLP_9ITY4FPo.jpg
Play Video Q


April 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Representative Peter Welch, a Vermont Democrat, talks about JPMorgan Chase & Co. trader Bruno Iksil's outsized bets in credit derivatives. Welch, speaking with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop," also discusses the March U.S. employment report. (Source: Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iy14sfD7JWz4.jpg
Play Video Q


April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Stephanie Ruhle takes a look at Bruno Iksil, a JP Morgan derivatives trader who has amassed positions so large he drives price moves in the $10 trillion market. She speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Inside Track." (Source: Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/ikbp7.3gBgYU.jpg
Play Video Q


April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker, Stephanie Ruhle and Sara Eisen report on comments from Aegis Capital chief investment officer Stanley Crouch calling for the revival of the Glass-Steagall Act in the wake of JPMorgan trader Bruno Iksil's outsized bets in credit derivatives. They speak on Bloomberg Television's "Inside Track." (Source: Bloomberg)




April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Stanley Crouch, chief investment officer of Aegis Capital Corp., talks about the outlook for the equity market and investment strategy. Crouch, speaking with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack," also discusses JPMorgan Chase & Co. trader Bruno Iksil's bets in credit derivatives. (Source: Bloomberg)



The trades, first reported by Bloomberg News April 5, stirred debate among U.S. policy makers over the Easter-holiday weekend as they wrangle over this year’s implementation of the so-called Volcker rule, the portion of the Dodd-Frank Act that sets limits on risk-taking by banks with government backing. The law passed after the collapse of the subprime mortgage market triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. (INDU)
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the pro-Volcker folks used this as a test case,” said Douglas Landy, a partner at law firm Allen & Overy LLP who is representing Canadian banks in opposing a current draft of the rule.
Merkley, Miller

Senator Jeff Merkley criticized the transactions in a statement that called for the rule’s prompt implementation, while Representative Brad Miller said they show why related U.S. laws should apply internationally.

You meant to say we are still in "Cha-Cha" Zone?

Based on the candle there were no much volume/liquid in these past 2 days

Safety Formula