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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #26,361
  • Apr 9, 2012 11:39am Apr 9, 2012 11:39am
For those of you who have decided to exercise extreme patience today, it seems we have finally started the upward correction.

I have sell limit orders waiting at 1.3122 and 1.3149
Looking forward to having at least the 3122 level triggered today. This coincides with the Hourly 100 period ema and sma and the daily R1 resistance.

E/U H1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 50 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,362
  • Apr 9, 2012 11:52am Apr 9, 2012 11:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
For those of you who have decided to exercise extreme patience today, it seems we have finally started the upward correction.

I have sell limit orders waiting at 1.3122 and 1.3149
Looking forward to having at least the 3122 level triggered today. This coincides with the Hourly 100 period ema and sma and the daily R1 resistance.

E/U H1

Attachment
first limit triggered
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,363
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:12pm Apr 9, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting FXMindset
first limit triggered
Yepp. Yayy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,364
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:21pm Apr 9, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yepp. Yayy
How high do you think it will go before reversing ?

I shorted 100K at 1.3129
  • #26,365
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:36pm Apr 9, 2012 12:36pm
Quoting knoholygrail
How high do you think it will go before reversing ?

I shorted 100K at 1.3129
around 1.35 - 1.36
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,366
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:46pm Apr 9, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting knoholygrail
How high do you think it will go before reversing ?

I shorted 100K at 1.3129
Technically, it has to go to test the broken rising channel support (RC-1) which is around 1.3150/60 depending on when it hits.

If it does not hit by 03:30 GMT, the bounce point starts lowering as the falling channel resistance (FC-3) comes into play when the two lines intersect at a price of 1.3160. From there price drops fairly quickly finishing at 1.3125 by 11:59pm GMT Tuesday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 60 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,367
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:49pm Apr 9, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting FXMindset
around 1.35 - 1.36
Bad boy FXM

Spanking for you

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WLZu6TIo4d...0/spanking.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,368
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:53pm Apr 9, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Bad boy FXM

Spanking for you

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WLZu6TIo4d...0/spanking.jpg
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,369
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:58pm Apr 9, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting FXMindset
around 1.35 - 1.36
First it has to clear 1.3160 and then 1.3200

Have a look at USD/JPY now. It has moved to 81.63 from the low at 81.19.

Then EUR/JPY has moved from low of 1.0610 to 1.0713 and EUR/USD only started to move near 11:15 AM !!!

It now trades at 1.3125 off from the low at 1.3032

Gold is UP and the US Dollar Index is down.

The Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds are .32% and the 10 Year US Bonds are 2.04% with a spread of 172 Basis Points at the moment.

The Dow is off the low for the day and is now down 107 points. Where will EUR/USD be at 6:00 PM EST if Dow closes down 150 ?

Do some think Bernake will bring back QE again after he speaks tonight ? Not a chance in H E L L.

The next FED meeting is in April. There is more things to go wrong than right in Europe. Will the Euro be bought now ? Will the Yen sell off or go back towards 81.00 ?

What do the charts say about these questions ?

Oil is down and we have Risk Off for the moment. The USD/CAD is at .9965 with Gold up and Oil down. EUR/CHF is now at 1.2017

How will Europe handle things starting at 2:00 AM EST ?

All good questions that only have answers in the movements of the various asset classes. Have any of the Fundamentals changed ?

Stay Tuned and Trade Well...
  • #26,370
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:03pm Apr 9, 2012 1:03pm
Price bounced on the hourly chart from the 1.3060 level, now above 1.31. The hourly chart is limited to the upside by 1.3160 and the downside is supported by 1.3110. My take, we need to touch 1.3160 at least before going down again, so, a little consolidation above 1.3110 and a run towards 1.3160 tomorrow at London open could be on the table. Let's see!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I'm off, see you tomorrow!
charting the euro...
  • #26,371
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:13pm Apr 9, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting shhhhh
Price bounced on the hourly chart from the 1.3060 level, now above 1.31. The hourly chart is limited to the upside by 1.3160 and the downside is supported by 1.3110. My take, we need to touch 1.3160 at least before going down again, so, a little consolidation above 1.3110 and a run towards 1.3160 tomorrow at London open could be on the table. Let's see!

Attachment

I'm off, see you tomorrow!
I agree. 1.3160 is in the cards. However, just to make sure I don't miss the short entry by a few pips, my limit order is at 1.3148 and I have taken out "short" insurance at 1.3122 just in case it decides to drop from here.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,372
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:28pm Apr 9, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting knoholygrail
How high do you think it will go before reversing ?

I shorted 100K at 1.3129
i shorted 3 lots at 3115 , as a newbee i am allways to early ino a trade.

i dont believe this little bull run , and am interested to see what london thinks of the NFP when they come on line tommorow
  • #26,373
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:48pm Apr 9, 2012 1:48pm
Quoting Prosac_100Mg
i shorted 3 lots at 3115 , as a newbee i am allways to early ino a trade.

i dont believe this little bull run , and am interested to see what london thinks of the NFP when they come on line tommorow
Hi Prosac, Can you show us what you based your 1.3115 trade on? A simple chart with a short explanation will do if it was based on a technical reason. If not, just skip the chart but please do explain.
Thanks
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,374
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:16pm Apr 9, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hi Prosac, Can you show us what you based your 1.3115 trade on? A simple chart with a short explanation will do if it was based on a technical reason. If not, just skip the chart but please do explain.
Thanks
PT
well pip trader the NFP high on friday was 3112 with low liquidity , this didnt last long because a new low was carved out at 3030.

i think that when every one comes back to work tommorow, london may cut a new low. i took the price at 3115 because i didnt want to miss the down side but pulled the trigger early. in hindsight the train i jumped on had not left the station.
,
  • #26,375
  • Edited 5:10pm Apr 9, 2012 2:23pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Technically, it has to go to test the broken rising channel support (RC-1) which is around 1.3150/60 depending on when it hits.

If it does not hit by 03:30 GMT, the bounce point starts lowering as the falling channel resistance (FC-3) comes into play when the two lines intersect at a price of 1.3160. From there price drops fairly quickly finishing at 1.3125 by 11:59pm GMT Tuesday.

Attachment
Nice short mentor....Still holding all of my shorts but the last short is now little bit under water....May be I will short again but want to see first how the price will react reaching that TL ....
PT will there be any reaction on Beny cake speech?
IMO there will be , if he didnt address anything regarding QE3 then there will be risk off in Asia and in Europe also..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #26,376
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:27pm Apr 9, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting Prosac_100Mg
well pip trader the NFP high on friday was 3112 with low liquidity , this didnt last long because a new low was carved out at 3030.

i think that when every one comes back to work tommorow, london may cut a new low. i took the price at 3115 because i didnt want to miss the down side but pulled the trigger early. in hindsight the train i jumped on had not left the station.
,
Yes I know the feeling. Often times when I set a limit order, price misses it by a fraction of a pip and I get left behind... like being a fraction of a second late for the train. Now I buy insurance. I open half my position at the resistance level before the one I anticipate will give the reversal (where I open the other half) Case in point is my previous post quoted below...


Quoting PipTrapper
I agree. 1.3160 is in the cards. However, just to make sure I don't miss the short entry by a few pips, my limit order is at 1.3148 and I have taken out "short" insurance at 1.3122 just in case it decides to drop from here.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,377
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:33pm Apr 9, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Nice short mentor....Still holding all of my shorts but the last short is now little bit under water....May be I will short again but want to see first how the price will react reaching that TL ....
PT will there be any reaction on Beny cake speach?
IMO there will be is he didnt address anything regarding QE3 then there will be risk off in Asia and Europe..
I think the market is going to scrutinize every single word out of Benny Cake's mouth from here forward until he says something that gives them a hint of direction. Many times in the past, the market (but especially the media) have been so desperate for a hint that they take something out of context and trade (or report) accordingly, but cautiously.

Now, as much as I really don't expect him to address the QE3 issue in any way, shape or form, I also realize that it is more important what the market understands and what the media interprets, than what he actually says.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,378
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:37pm Apr 9, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes I know the feeling. Often times when I set a limit order, price misses it by a fraction of a pip and I get left behind... like being a fraction of a second late for the train. Now I buy insurance. I open half my position at the resistance level before the one I anticipate will give the reversal (where I open the other half) Case in point is my previous post quoted below...
your advice is very much welcome, maybe i should of scaled in one lot at a time. this is my third year and third account , trying to get to grips with forex. in truth i need to master my emotions ; i think this is the key to success.
  • #26,379
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:57pm Apr 9, 2012 2:57pm
BEFORE and AFTER
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdx h1 04-09-12.gif 2.gif Size: 20 KB
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #26,380
  • Apr 9, 2012 3:03pm Apr 9, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting Prosac_100Mg
your advice is very much welcome, maybe i should of scaled in one lot at a time. this is my third year and third account , trying to get to grips with forex. in truth i need to master my emotions ; i think this is the key to success.
Yes it is all about emotions. Once you master that, then you can afford to mess around a bit here and there. Until you get there, use smaller chunks. That way if you are wrong, you will not be too exposed to add more when it goes a bit against you. Averaging in is obviously best suited for adding positions once you are already in the green. However, you can also safely average losers as long as you have only used a portion of your max lot size according to your money management system.

100 pips underwater with 1.5 lots is $1,500

100 pips underwater with 0.5 lots, plus 66 pips underwater with 0.5 lots, plus 33 pips underwater with 0.5 lots, is $1,000 (50% less exposure and a lot less stress).

Also, if you are correct with your first 0.5 lot entry, at 33% of the distance to your projected TP, you can add another 0.5 lots and set your SL at the average price (both entry prices divided by 2) which will get you out of the trades break even if price reverses. Then at 66%, take the profit from the second entry and set the SL of the first entry to 33% If price keeps going past your targeted TP, keep trailing the SL by 50% of the entire move. Of course you are free to close at any time, or after a failed pullback, feel free to add another 0.5 lots.

Holding trades like that for ages, you could end up with over 1000 pips. It's not too often but it's a nice bonus when it happens.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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