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EUR/CHF

  • #4,861
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:06pm Apr 9, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting worsttrader
guys, as i see fed chairman, bernanke speaks at 1:15 am cet.
maybe tonight wee see interesting volatility moves.
(watch your step.)

from forexlive


"
If you sold dollars ahead of every Bernanke speech over the past 3 years you would be doing awfully well.
He speaks early in the Asian session, at 2315 GMT and will be doing a moderated Q&A. I can’t see him stepping up his dovish rhetoric but a simply keeping with the line that ‘growth isn’t strong enough to reduce unemployment’ might be enough to satisfy the dollar bears."
  • #4,862
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:09pm Apr 9, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting daka
from forexlive


"
If you sold dollars ahead of every Bernanke speech over the past 3 years you would be doing awfully well.
He speaks early in the Asian session, at 2315 GMT and will be doing a moderated Q&A. I can’t see him stepping up his dovish rhetoric but a simply keeping with the line that ‘growth isn’t strong enough to reduce unemployment’ might be enough to satisfy the dollar bears."


seems good, hope the best!
  • #4,863
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:27pm Apr 9, 2012 12:27pm
Interesting..

When pair moves 3-4 pips UP .. all become excited..
When it moves 10-20 pips down and make base.. all silent..

Well first hurdle... UP longs 1.2050,70,80..12100
Down anyway we left with floor only

As per earlier.. it seems like here also.. most traders average around 1.2050 except few who are below/above that...

If floor hold there will be a chance to get out of this trade around 1.2060-70 around April 25-27th.. As we know it can reach 1.24-25 in long,very long term so some can stay longer also

Many risk factors include:

Greece elections and some parties are proposing exit Euro if they win.. depending on the election result, it will be volatile.

US election in Nov', France going on which may lift SPX to new levels before that to support the president doing all good and economy better so EURUSD may hit new levels..

This pair rise is certain only thing is floor should hold for another 2 months..
EURO remains stable.
  • #4,864
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:45pm Apr 9, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
Interesting..
Greece elections and some parties are proposing exit Euro if they win.. depending on the election result, it will be volatile.
i live in greece. especially for those who trade e/u should be very carefull in any small uptrend to e/u that may come before elctions.
polls -and my feeling living there- shows that there will be no greek goverment and then nobody knows what happens.
elections date, 99% for 6th of May, media say.
There shall be no QE3
  • #4,865
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:54pm Apr 9, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting alesss
I don't understand why you think that SNB will rise the peg.

SNB said:" The SNB will not tolerate any trading below the minimum rate in the relevant interbank market. To enforce this policy, it is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities if necessary. Moreover, it stands ready to take further measures if the economic outlook and the risk of deflation so require."

So, they just will rise the peg if if the economic outlook and the risk of deflation so require

We have these data.

1-CPI grows more than expected in March
2-GDP...

Yeah, you're almost right, but:

1. CPI great - as massive deflation that is accelerating (see earlier post):

monthly CPI y/y

2011 oct-0.1nov -0.5 dec -0.7
2012 jan -0.8feb -0.9 march-1.0

march was better beacuse of seasonal effect (sales period of winter clothes over)

2. GDP, 1% not bad ATM, but when you have a potential growth rate of 3-4% each year the swiss lose aprroximately 20 BLN CHF beacuse of the rate.

4. trade balance - above the bleak expectations beacuse of the fx rate as Dathine said: "With an extremely strong franc, we faced a very bleak scenario"
  • #4,866
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:09pm Apr 9, 2012 1:09pm
I am expecting some daily charts at the end of day
Where users will start saying.. we end 3-4 pips today and now we are very bullish

comments like :

Train is leaving
rocket is flying etc etc..
  • #4,867
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:29pm Apr 9, 2012 1:29pm
Portugal's domestic banks tap ECB for record amounts of funding
Bank of Portugal says domestic banks' use of European Central Bank's facilities rose to a record €56.3bn in March

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...record-funding
  • #4,868
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:37pm Apr 9, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting cipid2012
Yes, it's true. This is what SNB wants - mental torture and most of the traders will close their positions once the price will be around 1.205-1.21. First step is to induce fear ("peg broken"), fear to be a loser and then when they have a little profit (not even one pip) or even a little loss, the trader will go out from the trade as fast as he can. Everything is possible, but you should be mentally like a rock despite what will happen.
LOL, I guess SNB gives a shit about your 5000 dollar acccount.
  • #4,869
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:37pm Apr 9, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting worsttrader
Portugal's domestic banks tap ECB for record amounts of funding
Bank of Portugal says domestic banks' use of European Central Bank's facilities rose to a record €56.3bn in March

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...record-funding
This is no big news.. everyone knows LTRO has flooded the banks with cheap Euros for 3 years.. still banks are not lending to end users.. they are keeping with them and will start doing only when market sentiment improve and the cut on bad assets

Main News is 1.2022 pair.. .. Next target floor
  • #4,870
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:45pm Apr 9, 2012 1:45pm
where are the big hedge fonds and big players ... why arent they selling and attacking the floor ??? some people only talk BS
consistency wins
  • #4,871
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:21pm Apr 9, 2012 2:21pm
Quoting trader_dscha
LOL, I guess SNB gives a shit about your 5000 dollar acccount.
Only my vodka bottle worth 5000 We need to call Iksil to decide the market trend
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #4,872
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:24pm Apr 9, 2012 2:24pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...cond-time.html
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #4,873
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:28pm Apr 9, 2012 2:28pm
I think the eco minister is the best one as a new president. He/She( I think it's she!!!) always says the 1.3 or 1.35 is the best price for e/c.
After all, I hope Jordan wouldn't be the next one.
  • #4,874
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:42pm Apr 9, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting cipid2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...cond-time.html
...fake...?
  • #4,875
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:51pm Apr 9, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting Blue.Trader
I think the eco minister is the best one as a new president. He/She( I think it's she!!!) always says the 1.3 or 1.35 is the best price for e/c.
After all, I hope Jordan wouldn't be the next one.

i have read it 1 week ago


"Breaking News : Swiss fin min is the next chairman of the SNB "
  • #4,876
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:54pm Apr 9, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting worsttrader
...fake...?
Not fake, many people talk about it, some was stopped out, but it's bullshit again, no break on the serious brokers. Only bucketshops
  • #4,877
  • Apr 9, 2012 2:57pm Apr 9, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting tunera
Not fake, many people talk about it, some was stopped out, but it's bullshit again, no break on the serious brokers. Only bucketshops
i heared it first time. thanks
  • #4,878
  • Apr 9, 2012 3:00pm Apr 9, 2012 3:00pm
any idea where this 10 pip gain comes from?
  • #4,879
  • Apr 9, 2012 3:01pm Apr 9, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting Igrach
any idea where this 10 pip gain comes from?
market talk about BIS on the bid side (2bln)
  • #4,880
  • Apr 9, 2012 3:03pm Apr 9, 2012 3:03pm
Ready for floor testing tonight (Asian + Europe session)

5-7 pips gain takes days.. drop takes second.. so be ready.. Look like we are ready for retest today/tomorrow..
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