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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #306,801
  • Edited 3:07pm Apr 6, 2012 1:55pm | Edited 3:07pm
Quoting bguguen
A lot of traders here are simply saying "I trade what i see in my charts" its great to stick to technicals however i totally agree with your statement that you need to be good in Fundamentals to work well with Technicals while, you dont need Techical to trade solely on Fundamentals
That is what i mean... if you're gona just look at a chart you are missing out the key news coming out which happens to be driver for markets and you miss out or eventually Lose on trusting a model too strictly, variables like news are simply too much to ignore when...
Look at Ray Dalio. He earned 2.5 B this year purely trading fundamentals. Like when he surveyed the Lehman collapse and figured out the Fed would have to start printing to prop up the banks because of their shared exposure to Lehman, so bought heavily into bonds ahead of the curve. Brilliant.

The technicals would never tell anyone this.


The US monopoly is the USD being the reserve currency for oil. Ghadafi was too isolated to have any impact on their regional hegemony or a supposed gold monopoly. The BRICS and Iran are the real flash point because they're chipping away at the USD's position as the reserve.

If the US were concerned about a gold monopoly they wouldn't have off loaded that large an amount through the IMF to India and China last year. It was a classic distribution at the top. Not like Brown's Bottom where 400 tons went to the NY Fed, NM Rothschild and AIG got bailed out (which Goldman front ran as usual). Classic.


.
  • #306,802
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:56pm Apr 6, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting Fudomyo
lol... just bored.

Going to call it a night. Asia session may be interesting on Monday after the NFP numbers.

Have a great weekend.

u too brother!
  • #306,803
  • Apr 6, 2012 2:21pm Apr 6, 2012 2:21pm
oh.. i just couldn't sleep..

since we are at the end of the week and weekly candle might have closed in such bearish candles, i've closed all my positions and open a short at 5885 with stop at 5900, just above today's high..

this is due to the fact that i've seen dojis in 4h and price didn't close at my expected level which is above 5900 so i decided to TPed all my positions and open a test short position against the 5900 resistance level..

well, this time i try to get some sleep..

green pips guys..
  • #306,804
  • Edited 3:57pm Apr 6, 2012 3:37pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting bguguen
BTW i totally agree with you that Gold actually doesnt worth as much as it is now... as the only demand coming from it is by sheer panic to hedge... as soon as demand disappears... Gold would be as cheap as chicken nuggets for all its worth...
Same thing happened to the Dutch Tulip Bubble... prices for one bulb of tulip went absolutely insane prices... but when demand for it completely disappears they collapse...
and gold wouldnt be an exception...
Oil... indeed oil is everything in the picture...
but i still need to go with the theory of ghadaffis...
Hey bguguen, I really don't want to jab at you, but I still believe that trading with 4hr, daily even weekly charts does not necessarily require Fundie knowledge, it depends on your system. Charts talk bro, and while Fundies are market drivers, they will obviously then be reflected in price action no? Once this price action is read, bulls can become bears and switch back at the drop of a hat. From what I can see, being a trader with a strong fundie biase has you holding to your fundie theory through a drawdown of 600 or so pips with your 2 sell trades at 56/5830ish. Yes you have been scalping north following PA against your own fundies which kind of shows my point. Yes I lose sometimes but don't we all? I don't know jack about fundies and know even less about applying it to trading but the system works because it evolves with the charts that reflect fundies and techs as you say. I have seen other traders use my system in other forums but they are better than me because they waiting for the strong turning points and let the profits run to targets, I wish to do this. Just saying mate that to keep an open mind, your fundie education and mentoring is not the be all and end all. If your system adapts with the market, then you can tech your way all to the bank.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,805
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:03pm Apr 6, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting bguguen
BTW i totally agree with you that Gold actually doesnt worth as much as it is now... as the only demand coming from it is by sheer panic to hedge... as soon as demand disappears... Gold would be as cheap as chicken nuggets for all its worth...
Same thing happened to the Dutch Tulip Bubble... prices for one bulb of tulip went absolutely insane prices... but when demand for it completely disappears they collapse...
and gold wouldnt be an exception...
Oil... indeed oil is everything in the picture...
but i still need to go with the theory of ghadaffis...
You got to be clear what someone means when they say they trade what they see on the charts. If they have 1000 pip goals based on techs, I agree it can fall over, but other chart interpretations can hold strong. I find it curious that a number of traders have gone against my hedge strategy but say nothing of 600 pip drawdowns. It confuses me
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,806
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:04pm Apr 6, 2012 4:04pm
This is how I felt after reading all the posts from the past 7 pages.....

Inserted Video


I am glad I went out to the park with the kids for the day.......

HAPPY EASTER!!!!

Faller
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #306,807
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:11pm Apr 6, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting Faller
This is how I felt after reading all the posts from the past 7 pages.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvmhFvDfOKM

I am glad I went out to the park with the kids for the day.......

HAPPY EASTER!!!!

Faller
Happy Easter bud
  • #306,808
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:14pm Apr 6, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting bguguen
BTW i totally agree with you that Gold actually doesnt worth as much as it is now... as the only demand coming from it is by sheer panic to hedge... as soon as demand disappears... Gold would be as cheap as chicken nuggets for all its worth...
Same thing happened to the Dutch Tulip Bubble... prices for one bulb of tulip went absolutely insane prices... but when demand for it completely disappears they collapse...
and gold wouldnt be an exception...
Oil... indeed oil is everything in the picture...
but i still need to go with the theory of ghadaffis...
And my 3rd and final post just because it's Easter, I've made more pips since 1.56 with what you referred to as "bullshit longs" (because they went against your fundie reasoning) than I have off shorts. Happy Easter guys, sorry
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,809
  • Edited 4:26pm Apr 6, 2012 4:16pm | Edited 4:26pm
Quoting Faller
This is how I felt after reading all the posts from the past 7 pages.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvmhFvDfOKM

I am glad I went out to the park with the kids for the day.......

HAPPY EASTER!!!!

Faller
Me too bro, me too, there are some very smart
Cookies in forex wonderland. Happy Easter my friend.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,810
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:20pm Apr 6, 2012 4:20pm
Oops sorry, I almost forgot. With regards to drawdowns, some tech traders can have some serious drawdowns also I admit, but seriously, who trades off 16 month charts? Sorry nAV, just kidding bro
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,811
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:34pm Apr 6, 2012 4:34pm
I am a tech trader with a solid fundi base.....you need both to trade any time frame if you ask me.....

As for draw down.....man - I have to be honest I look for a 4 to 1 risk reward ratio......as you all know - I am intra day trader - 95% of the time I have closed positions by the end of the trading day......

I look for a 20 to 40 pip move in my favour....basing the info on the daily time frame......there is no way I could have a 100 or 200 or 400 pip draw down.

So my trades need to be very very accurate in entry and exit.......it has taken me a long time to develop my technique but it works for me.

Normally one trade a day....sometimes two.....and some days no trades at all........we all have our personality. We must recognize that....and trade accordingly....

Thank you for the Easter Wishes from my fellow traders.......

Let's stay positive in here.....even though we all have different thoughts and trading styles.....

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #306,812
  • Apr 6, 2012 5:46pm Apr 6, 2012 5:46pm
Quoting Faller
This is how I felt after reading all the posts from the past 7 pages.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvmhFvDfOKM

I am glad I went out to the park with the kids for the day.......

HAPPY EASTER!!!!

Faller
  • #306,813
  • Apr 6, 2012 6:37pm Apr 6, 2012 6:37pm
Question: would it be okay to trade this pair on Monday?
  • #306,814
  • Apr 6, 2012 6:54pm Apr 6, 2012 6:54pm
Quoting Charles1
Question: would it be okay to trade this pair on Monday?

That is a very vague question......

So of course my answer will be professional but vague -

It is ok to trade this pair or any other pair on Monday as long as you have a proper understanding of Price Action and Money Management.

It sounds like you have a lot to learn - keep reading.....a good sight is babypips dot com - google it. Hope my response helps.

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #306,815
  • Apr 7, 2012 3:44am Apr 7, 2012 3:44am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello,
yes i agree! to be in a med term positions or even long term must consider also fundamental aspects.
a problem i personally find about fundamentals is: ok, we have no qe3 or we have more qe in uk etc... we have germany in deep red everywhere etc... but also with all these things, market could go up now 300-400 pips in GU EU etc, simply because there is something out there that is out of our comprehnsion. at least mine

for example, the move in EU from 1.30 to 1.34 seen in daily last swing up?! or better the move when came from 1.26-1.28:...
Gosh I love how BB is so expressive, captures much of my thoughts in 1 post. "apparent" and often temporary fundies (real or fake) often follow techs on this pair. I agree with the notion that the banks and the Feds are in cahoots, it's all that makes sense sometimes
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,816
  • Edited 4:18am Apr 7, 2012 4:06am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Gosh I love how BB is so expressive, captures much of my thoughts in 1 post. "apparent" and often temporary fundies (real or fake) often follow techs on this pair. I agree with the notion that the banks and the Feds are in cahoots, it's all that makes sense sometimes

I disagree..it certainly helps but i can honestly say apart from this trade which again is relative..if i get it right people will say .."navin is awesome" people can be so full of shit sometimes it makes me cringe

then on the other hand when its falling apart " what an idiot"

in life theres a balance so long as u find that medium, then its good..there is no right way!..I know fundamentalist that simply cant get the pips i make and are in shock and also the other way round..

Dont look at edges to make yourself great..look within..everything can be seen in the chart..absolutely everything!!! (its a leading indicator)

example:- Tony warning me about about euro and cable roughly falling 2 months prior the move along with Peaches
Azim also ..there technical traders
  • #306,817
  • Apr 7, 2012 4:47am Apr 7, 2012 4:47am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I disagree..it certainly helps but i can honestly say apart from this trade which again is relative..if i get it right people will say .."navin is awesome" people can be so full of shit sometimes it makes me cringe

then on the other hand when its falling apart " what an idiot"

in life theres a balance so long as u find that medium, then its good..there is no right way!..I know fundamentalist that simply cant get the pips i make and are in shock and also the other way round..

Dont look at edges to make yourself great..look within..everything...
Sorry bro I don't follow, what do you disagree with?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,818
  • Apr 7, 2012 4:56am Apr 7, 2012 4:56am
once i found my self because reasons of a move where saying up but price still went down for a lot of time. so then i asked my self:

"is it important to know the reason of a move or is it important trade that move?"
because everytime moves are clear!!! very clear!!! but our eyes can be closed by too many things"

IMO, fundamental aspects in forex trading are way too much complex to make money. because even if 1500 things says a price must go down, price can go up due to those 10 things you didn't give weight. and then?!.

we would need a team to know everything and then too many inputs so deciding a trade will be impossible. and this is the truth. the more you complicate your life, the more your life will be complicated. obvious.

i am nobody in market, and i don't want to know anything about politics. there is a good move to trade? get it. there is not a good move? there are a lot of other things to do in a day.

bybye happy eastern, happy weekend, happy everything....
but please,
relax your minds!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #306,819
  • Apr 7, 2012 4:57am Apr 7, 2012 4:57am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Gosh I love how BB is so expressive, captures much of my thoughts in 1 post. "apparent" and often temporary fundies (real or fake) often follow techs on this pair. I agree with the notion that the banks and the Feds are in cahoots, it's all that makes sense sometimes
thanks!

have a good eastern you + family!

byebye
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #306,820
  • Apr 7, 2012 4:58am Apr 7, 2012 4:58am
Quoting Ill-b-back
You got to be clear what someone means when they say they trade what they see on the charts. If they have 1000 pip goals based on techs, I agree it can fall over, but other chart interpretations can hold strong. I find it curious that a number of traders have gone against my hedge strategy but say nothing of 600 pip drawdowns. It confuses me
hi mate,

i think that is because it is a sensitive topic to discuss about other trading styles..

Personally, I wouldn't discuss regarding that topic since usually traders here normally will stand around their own understanding and their own experiences trading the market, they are not so open minded..'and you will get critics if you touch that topic.

As i say before, from my understanding of the market, the overall fundamental is not crucial in trading, only crucial in investing the reason is, it will takes month for the fundamental to develop and to reflect in the market..

normally, from what i see it, fundamental always follows the technicals, my other point is, you can always explain everything regarding the PA by technical analysis and that's not true for fundamental analysis, which you can explain the move some of the time only.

And we trade only by 4h TF, at least i am.. so how can i use fundamental analysis if i only want to catch one price swing, right? Maybe, monthly or yearly chart can explain the effect of fundamental effect since 1 swing might take years.. i can't comment on that since i don't use that long TF myself..

green pips and have a great weekend mate..
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