EUR/CHF | Page 234 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/CHF

Similar Threads

GBP/CHF and USD/CHF 955 replies

Correlation EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF (Humour me please... Thx) 8 replies

EUR/CHF, USD/CHF turning up? 1 reply

Using usd/chf - eur/usd correlation to see moves in EUR/USD 46 replies

Ranging pairs? EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/CAD? 0 replies

Attachments: EUR/CHF
Exit Attachments

EUR/CHF

  • #4,661
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:21pm Apr 6, 2012 4:21pm
Just by letting the pair to move close to the peg with a bit of a technical issue below, the sentiment changed a lot in a couple of weeks, here in this thread 4 weeks ago everyone was talking about raise of the peg.

After that everyone was waiting for intervention. Now we are almost at the point where the sentiment points to the peg break. if snb contiues to hover the pair just above peg, almost no one will be left to close longs after the "dear payment" for shorts.

And exactly as someone said before, there are many examples for pegs that hold for many years.
  • #4,662
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:21pm Apr 6, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting hutrader
First of all many are OVERLEVERAGED in the longs! ( Greed )
They 100% believe that the SNB is stronger than all the market participants ( Includes China, ECB, FED, Russia etc the big players on FX ) ---> HOPE
Those who are long EURCHF have absolutely no idea about market overall and probably one of their last hope to gain $$ from FX after they've probably burned by trying to trade other currencies.

I admit I am short EURCHF but I can handle even a 4000 pip move against me in case my stop won't hit in case the SNB would be so fool to raise the...


where is your TP?
what about your SL?
  • #4,663
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:32pm Apr 6, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting rokokdaun
for those who waiting for intervention, i wana ask you.. did SNB really make any statement for above peg price level target? as i recall, SNB only make bold statement to defend 1.20 price level.. they didnt mentions any above level targets.. why so many people keep telling certain level such as 1.32, 1.4, 1.5, which is way beyond any fundamental analysis.. as technically as i can see, Eurchf is heading down.. NFP will push it lower i believe no matter it's good or bad data..
have a nice weekend ...
  • #4,664
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:32pm Apr 6, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting hutrader
First of all many are OVERLEVERAGED in the longs! ( Greed )
They 100% believe that the SNB is stronger than all the market participants ( Includes China, ECB, FED, Russia etc the big players on FX ) ---> HOPE
Those who are long EURCHF have absolutely no idea about market overall and probably one of their last hope to gain $$ from FX after they've probably burned by trying to trade other currencies.

I admit I am short EURCHF but I can handle even a 4000 pip move against me in case my stop won't hit in case the SNB would be so fool to raise the...

If it moves 4000 pips against you, I'll cover your losses and buy you a beer each day of your life. Or 2 beers, if you want.
  • #4,665
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:45pm Apr 6, 2012 4:45pm
Quoting Helloguys
I understand what you mean, but really I will be also glad if they make intervetion or anything and do not burn you people. That pair was a trap especially for people like me who did not have lived a peg situation and how it works.

But -if I leave emotion out- I just dont trust they will support you. It seems that they dont give a penny


Thanks for your support and good luck with your USDCHF position!
  • #4,666
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:47pm Apr 6, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting rcrist
If it moves 4000 pips against you, I'll cover your losses and buy you a beer each day of your life. Or 2 beers, if you want.
  • #4,667
  • Edited 5:27pm Apr 6, 2012 5:14pm | Edited 5:27pm
Quoting Helloguys
[...]
That pair was a trap especially for people like me who did not have lived a peg situation and how it works.
[...]
If this trade did not kill you right away, then you have now learnt something to make it better the next time. When I feel that I am wrong, I close my positions. I think this is always a good advice.

Quoting Helloguys
[...]
But -if I leave emotion out- I just dont trust they will support you. It seems that they dont give a penny
[...]
No, it is even worse. They do not only NOT want so support other traders, they want to kill them. The big traders know where the stops are and they want to drive the market towards the stops because this makes the most money for them. All those stops below 1.20 are still waiting to be triggered. One needs not to be a genius to know that there are gazillions of stops there.

The funny thing about this is that the SNB itself might want to trigger those stops in order to buy EUR/CHF cheap before driving it back to 1.20. This way, the SNB could even make money while defending its peg at the same time.

Or they might declare a new peg of 1.00 after EUR/CHF has made its way down to hell at 0.80, also making money for them. Either way, SNB will look to defend EUR/CHF in the most cost-efficient way. And this way is certainly not to declare a new peg of 1.25 or even higher, making thousands of newbie traders rich.
  • #4,668
  • Apr 6, 2012 5:24pm Apr 6, 2012 5:24pm
Quoting TraderJF
If this trade did not kill you right away, then you have now learnt something to make it better the next time. When I feel that I am wrong, I close my positions. I think this is always a good advice.



No, it is even worse. They do not only NOT want so support other traders, they want to kill them. The big traders know where the stops are and they want to drive the market towards the stops because this makes the most money for them. All those stops below 1.20 are still waiting to be triggered. One must not be a genius to know that there are...

It's SNB game, we just play it.
We knew this all the time.
We'll have to revisit these messages next time it hits 1.21.
  • #4,669
  • Apr 6, 2012 5:28pm Apr 6, 2012 5:28pm
Quoting rcrist
It's SNB game, we just play it.
We knew this all the time.
We'll have to revisit these messages next time it hits 1.21.
After they burn us , they will be burnt too.
They would loose any credibility for years.
  • #4,670
  • Apr 6, 2012 5:32pm Apr 6, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting rcrist
After they burn us , they will be burnt too.
They would loose any credibility for years.
Then they have already lost all their credibility. The SNB pegs in the last three years were 1.60 and 1.40. So it will not bother them much to lose it again when 1.20 falls.
  • #4,671
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:08pm Apr 6, 2012 10:08pm
if break 1.20 . next support level is at where?
  • #4,672
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:19pm Apr 6, 2012 10:19pm
Support already broken on my charts.

Next level of support would be 1.17.

Only thing that technically changes is this would be a close over broken support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #4,673
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:20pm Apr 6, 2012 10:20pm
Quoting williamlee
if break 1.20 . next support level is at where?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ec.jpg Size: 114 KB

for now bouncing between 1.2002 and 1.2010
  • #4,674
  • Apr 7, 2012 12:17am Apr 7, 2012 12:17am
Quoting TraderJF
Then they have already lost all their credibility. The SNB pegs in the last three years were 1.60 and 1.40. So it will not bother them much to lose it again when 1.20 falls.

If I knew they had pegs before I wouldn't have been in this...
Were these pegs (1.4, 1.6) as official as this one?
  • #4,675
  • Apr 7, 2012 3:34am Apr 7, 2012 3:34am
Quoting rcrist
If I knew they had pegs before I wouldn't have been in this...
Were these pegs (1.4, 1.6) as official as this one?
I think they were not officials as the one of 1.20.
Well if market does not open with a gap under 1.20, I think it will be very good news for longies. In 5 to 15 days they would have a new complete council with president and 3rd board member. So if there is a gap or not is critical.

I was thinking at night, that best strategy was to close positions on Friday evening, and if there is no gap, anyone who wants to go long again can do it, or other way was to hedge their positions. In worst scenario they would have lost 10-15 pips.

But we should listen to those who say that we cannot trust everything to SNB, they are market manipulators, means they only care to use market for their benefit. Its not ethical but they may lie. And besides they are Swiss bankers, they would be happily screwing even their mother.
There shall be no QE3
  • #4,676
  • Apr 7, 2012 3:43am Apr 7, 2012 3:43am
In my opinion, the only reason for CHF strength lies in the fact that tons of money hiding from European tax authorities is poaring into Swiss accounts (with a lot of help from Swiss authorities). Somehow it is easier for them to hide it if it gets converted into CHF, which results in its strength (vs CAD and AUD in particular). So will they screw their clients (who were converting their hidden money at lower levels ) by moving the rate higher? (1.25 or more) . It would be very foolish to think so. 1.20 (on average) is probably where most of their clients exchanged their hidden tax money in the last few years so they killed 2 birds with one stone: Raised the peg from 1.10 or lower to 1.20 and keep their clients happy. I dont see how they can justify another artificial peg raise in the future (if EUR raises gradually, they will advice their clients now to hedge and keep them happy.) So I dont see any sudden moves up in this pair.
I lived in Southern Switzerland in 2006-07 and asking ordinary people regarding Italians who are hiding their money in Switzerland always put smile on their faces: That is why we live so good, they would say, thanks to them! Same goes accross the country
  • #4,677
  • Apr 7, 2012 4:04am Apr 7, 2012 4:04am
Quoting TraderJF
No, it is even worse. They do not only NOT want so support other traders, they want to kill them. The big traders know where the stops are and they want to drive the market towards the stops because this makes the most money for them. All those stops below 1.20 are still waiting to be triggered. One needs not to be a genius to know that there are gazillions of stops there.
tell me something! if this is true and the snb wants to burn us what are they waiting for? the sentiment is changing. more and more people will close their long positions. the 'gazillions' of stops are shrinking as we speak... you guys are really underestimating their determination. and don't blame SNB for the broken floor, blame your broker. my SL were at 1,199 and were never hit. SNB had buy orders at 1,2 and that is telling me everything i need to know about this pair.they can't afford to remove the peg at this moment and go back to parity in a few days. i admit i don't understand why are they letting the pair so close to the floor but who am i to understand their strategy? anyway i have my sell orders in position and either we go up or down that's fine with me. but i would love to see an upward movement just to know that some wise guys who are shorting this pair because the technical analysis and the charts 'tells' them that lose some money. i'm just curious: what did the charts 'said' on the morning of 6 september?
  • #4,678
  • Apr 7, 2012 4:09am Apr 7, 2012 4:09am
Dear traders, the coming week will probably see a breakout of the current range.
It may be a week that many of you will never forget, what is going to happen is still not clear, but I think something is going to happen.
Many of you are ready to act and have one or more clear plan/s, some have sold, some have bought, some have an amount of sellstops or buystops well placed, or sell and buy limits.
Charge your weapons and get ready to fight, the ultimate battle is starting.
Cheers!
  • #4,679
  • Apr 7, 2012 5:12am Apr 7, 2012 5:12am
Hi everybody, i like to share some views on management of SNB
  • #4,680
  • Apr 7, 2012 5:14am Apr 7, 2012 5:14am
Quoting tunera
Dear traders, the coming week will probably see a breakout of the current range.
It may be a week that many of you will never forget, what is going to happen is still not clear, but I think something is going to happen.
Many of you are ready to act and have one or more clear plan/s, some have sold, some have bought, some have an amount of sellstops or buystops well placed, or sell and buy limits.
Charge your weapons and get ready to fight, the ultimate battle is starting.
Cheers!
...u were watching star wars last night or want to be a politician?
9 traders viewing now