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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #306,781
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:54am Apr 6, 2012 10:54am
Quoting bguguen
you know what they say... just like in wrestlemania...
in economics you think its a match of 1 versus 1.... but then again you will have another economist coming in with another theory countering both theories...

so it becomes a 1vs1vs1 match...

and yes like wrestlemania... it always ends with a bloodbath
lol.

well, seems like we're going nowhere from here.. and another thing is, i think once we see ucad move to the downside and in-sync with swissy, then i think we might get higher level on cable.. until then, it's just drifting..

i think i have to go to bed, getting late here..

see u later mate, have a great weekend.
  • #306,782
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:58am Apr 6, 2012 10:58am
Talk about economics bloodbath and wrestlemania...

Economics looks pretty much like this in the end of the day 20 economist arguing for different theories...

Inserted Video
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,783
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:59am Apr 6, 2012 10:59am
i miss the moment when the price above 1.595, this thread really quite and peaceful like a graveyard
  • #306,784
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:19am Apr 6, 2012 11:19am
Quoting MonsterPips
i miss the moment when the price above 1.595, this thread really quite and peaceful like a graveyard
R.I.P. FOREX FACTORY
  • #306,785
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:24am Apr 6, 2012 11:24am
Quoting bguguen
you know what they say... just like in wrestlemania...
in economics you think its a match of 1 versus 1.... but then again you will have another economist coming in with another theory countering both theories...

so it becomes a 1vs1vs1 match...

and yes like wrestlemania... it always ends with a bloodbath
bguguen,

We don't want a bloodbath do we?

Seriously though, I really like and respect your knowledge and wished you well in my posts (at your age I was more interested in girls - no offence ). I only wanted to correct some of the mistakes in your previous posts so it is up to you how you take it. Also I did not want some newbies to learn the wrong things. That is all. If you look back, I did not even reply to your post today. I was trying to explain to someone about gold price fixing.

Maybe one day we should meet for a beer in the City - perhaps we can invite others on this thread as well. I live in Islington (during weekdays). No hard feelings. There is so much left to do in life for me.

Ciao
  • #306,786
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:28am Apr 6, 2012 11:28am
Quoting Rasi
bguguen,

We don't want a bloodbath do we?

Seriously though, I really like and respect your knowledge and wished you well in my posts (at your age I was more interested in girls - no offence ). I only wanted to correct some of the mistakes in your previous posts so it is up to you how you take it. Also I did not want some newbies to learn the wrong things. That is all. If you look back, I did not even reply to your post today. I was trying to explain to someone about gold price fixing.

Maybe one day we should meet for a beer in...
Btw sorry bout the hard feelings back then, but Boys be boys, we dont become friends until we had a fight...
Im pretty conscious when it comes to maturity and my age whether if people think its suitable or not in this industry... ive tried time and time again to prove to people that age doesnt matter when it comes to trading... its the depth of a person's understanding that really counts...

Oh my god you're a brit?? dude we have so got to meet up grab a drink before we keep misunderstanding each other with forum posts... this is the reason why i prefer talking to traders individually on skype or on the phone just so you can understand a person better by hearing their voice...
Cant wait to do this with you... Where abouts in Islington?? my Uni is very close to Islington in London... well its in Regent's Park....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,787
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:42am Apr 6, 2012 11:42am
What is the GBPUSD perspective for the next few days? does 1.6100 resistance look like a real targethttps://www.tradingview.com/i/FHESXmk3?
  • #306,788
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:47am Apr 6, 2012 11:47am
Quoting bguguen
Btw sorry bout the hard feelings back then, but Boys be boys, we dont become friends until we had a fight...
Im pretty conscious when it comes to maturity and my age whether if people think its suitable or not in this industry... ive tried time and time again to prove to people that age doesnt matter when it comes to trading... its the depth of a person's understanding that really counts...

Oh my god you're a brit?? dude we have so got to meet up grab a drink before we keep misunderstanding each other with forum posts... this is the reason...
The day isnt yet but i reckon u will be a really good trader infact i have no doubt by the time u reach my age u could be awesome, age has nothing to do with it!!..infact in trading thats an edge

simple cause in your life u perhaps havent had as much emotional baggage..therefore more likely to react in the moment..it will be interesting to see how yah develop
  • #306,789
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:54am Apr 6, 2012 11:54am
Guys please share your ideas regarding GBPUSD. What is point to discuss some irrelevant stuff?
Stochastic looks oversold. Does it matter?
https://www.tradingview.com/i/j7eI60uV
  • #306,790
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:15pm Apr 6, 2012 12:15pm
We will see how its going the next week https://www.tradingview.com/e/ntksJqQy/
  • #306,791
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:16pm Apr 6, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
The day isnt yet but i reckon u will be a really good trader infact i have no doubt by the time u reach my age u could be awesome, age has nothing to do with it!!..infact in trading thats an edge

simple cause in your life u perhaps havent had as much emotional baggage..therefore more likely to react in the moment..it will be interesting to see how yah develop
it'll be amazing how you might become one of the very few people who gets to watch me grow up into adulthood and a great trader huh...
maybe one day id be rich enough to fly over for a visit wherever you are...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,792
  • Edited 1:13pm Apr 6, 2012 12:21pm | Edited 1:13pm
Quoting bguguen
it'll be amazing how you might become one of the very few people who gets to watch me grow up into adulthood and a great trader huh...
maybe one day id be rich enough to fly over for a visit wherever you are...
rofl... you won't have to fly far. Nav's a Brit too.

There's a couple of points I wanted to share about what you were discussing.

Libyan gold and massacres have nothing to do with the real story. (relying on RT as a source about a matter of regional importance to Russia isn't usually a good idea)

As far as gold goes, there hasn't been an independent audit of US Bullion holdings in over 50 years, so until it's substantiated, the reported number is irrelevant. A portion of that, $167 billion dollars in gold bars was reported to be stored in the Federal Reserve vaults in the basement of the World Trade Center (which still isn't accounted for post 9-11).

As far as China is concerned, you need to consider they may have holdings that vastly exceed the estimates given for public consumption (actual bullion). Gold was the monetary unit used for 2000 years of trade on the Silk Route which China controlled. For any unit to retain value, it's rarity needs to be carefully regulated. Since there is no independent audit of actual Chinese gold holdings either, it's a difficult to properly analyze.

Every nation has a vested interest in retaining the valuation of gold, but in actuality it's more likely than not just another fiat like a tally stick or any other agreed upon unit of measure. The reason I'm bringing this up is because an unquantifiable resource is not something to build an economic or fundamental argument on.

The real unit of value is, and always has been, Energy.

Libya was about the oil. The US never intervenes on a moral premise and the gold was the door prize. Your opinion on Libyan massacres was manufactured by Hill & Knowlton, the rebel forces were mainly mercenaries from Jordan and Qatar trained by the CIA, and the real prize was the oil fields. (the overthrow of Libya was allowed as part of the US concession on the Iraq oil contracts post invasion)

As for Iraq, the 20 year contracts signed in the wake of the invasion were the largest in the history of the oil industry. They covered half of Iraq's reserves. 60 billion barrels of oil, bought up by companies such as BP and CNPC, whose joint consortium alone stands to make $658m profit per year from the Rumaila field in southern Iraq. Same with Afghanistan. It wasn't about Al Queda, Taliban, or mineral reserves, it's about who controls the pipeline. Same with Iran, and every other energy producing country in the region.

The Libyan borders were a colonial construct around a Berber tribal area to control resources. The carving up of Persia into modern nation states was a similar construct spearheaded by the oil companies.

Once you understand what motivates expediency, there isn't much reason to waste time on illusionary valuation models. Gold at best is a hedge when Treasuries are taking a beating, but it's not a driver. And it has a very likely shot at hitting production value in the next 2 years. If you look at any model of gold valuation, it has always been highly manipulated, and vulnerable to the dictates of power, not as a hedge against them (which is what many people believe).

As far as UK housing prices and actual demand go, there's more that you need to study in terms of the internal balance sheets to understand what's really happening, but to keep it short, the UK hasn't begun to de-leverage yet. They will though. This post would be twice as long if I got into the mechanics of it here, so I'll leave it for another time.

Anyway, some stuff to consider.

Cheers.
  • #306,793
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:36pm Apr 6, 2012 12:36pm
How does this affect the cable?
  • #306,794
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:41pm Apr 6, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting kstyxxx
How does this affect the cable?
The same way any other important market driver affects cable.
  • #306,795
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:47pm Apr 6, 2012 12:47pm
Is it a short term perspective?
  • #306,796
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:55pm Apr 6, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting kstyxxx
Is it a short term perspective?
If you are going to properly analyze where Cable's going (short/long term) you need to consider where Brent Crude, DXY, and a number of other instruments are sitting in relation to critical support or resistance (on a purely technical level). The fundamentals are more complex, but are the main drivers for the short and long term technicals. Having a proper understanding of both is optimal for informed trading decisions.
  • #306,797
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:13pm Apr 6, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting Fudomyo
rofl... you won't have to fly far. Nav's a Brit too.

There's a couple of points I wanted to share about what you were discussing.

Libyan gold and massacres have nothing to do with the real story. (relying on RT as a source about a matter of regional importance to Russia isn't usually a good idea)

As far as gold goes, there hasn't been an independent audit of US Bullion holdings in over 50 years, so until it's substantiated, the reported number is irrelevant. A portion of that, $167 billion dollars in gold bars was reported to be stored in the...
now u posting knowledge about fundamentals
u dark horse u
  • #306,798
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:22pm Apr 6, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting Fudomyo
If you are going to properly analyze where Cable's going (short/long term) you need to consider where Brent Crude, DXY, and a number of other instruments are sitting in relation to critical support or resistance (on a purely technical level). The fundamentals are more complex, but are the main drivers for the short and long term technicals. Having a proper understanding of both is optimal for informed trading decisions.
BTW i totally agree with you that Gold actually doesnt worth as much as it is now... as the only demand coming from it is by sheer panic to hedge... as soon as demand disappears... Gold would be as cheap as chicken nuggets for all its worth...
Same thing happened to the Dutch Tulip Bubble... prices for one bulb of tulip went absolutely insane prices... but when demand for it completely disappears they collapse...
and gold wouldnt be an exception...
Oil... indeed oil is everything in the picture...
but i still need to go with the theory of ghadaffis plan for new currency standard for gold...
because its too obvious that the americans are too reliant on Gold being still in demand and US is one of the largest gold bullion monopolies to provide to people who demand...
but so the libyan incident is a fight to power over oil while the Gold currency standard... well lets just say that the fuel added to the american fire to war and US's support of Libyan revolution...

BTW this quote gave me HUGE satisfaction for the day...
Quote
The fundamentals are more complex, but are the main drivers for the short and long term technicals. Having a proper understanding of both is optimal for informed trading decisions.
A lot of traders here are simply saying "I trade what i see in my charts" its great to stick to technicals however i totally agree with your statement that you need to be good in Fundamentals to work well with Technicals while, you dont need Techical to trade solely on Fundamentals
That is what i mean... if you're gona just look at a chart you are missing out the key news coming out which happens to be driver for markets and you miss out or eventually Lose on trusting a model too strictly, variables like news are simply too much to ignore when you are a tech trader...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,799
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:26pm Apr 6, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
now u posting knowledge about fundamentals
u dark horse u
lol... just bored.

Going to call it a night. Asia session may be interesting on Monday after the NFP numbers.

Have a great weekend.
  • #306,800
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:34pm Apr 6, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting 0rPhioZ
I missed that easy money . LOL, will wait for retracement and nice PA before adding SHORT. I'm not confident to add any more LONG for now, still holding my LONG from yesterday. It seems to me we haven't seen the bottom yet. What a nice troll for celebrating easter .
Still holding this LONG position till now. I don't quite understand about fundamentals but I think we have been trolled again by Bernanke. Care to explain fundementally how will such low NFP affect this pair on Monday ? From just viewing the charts, I will say that bulls have fuel for some movements.
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