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  • #306,761
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:21am Apr 6, 2012 9:21am
Quoting bguguen
Same goes with CPI (consumer price index)

a High CPI coming out of UK may not necessarily be good news for the UK...

a rise in the price of good and service is only good when the Rise of Wages is higher than that of the Rise in Price of goods and services...

Say...

Prices of a car rose by 5%
while your wages only rose by 1%

The 4% difference in the rise of the price of a car would immediately put people off from buying the car...

This is called a Cost push Inflation, something Greece has been facing over the greek debt crisis... reason why...

good stuff
  • #306,762
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:25am Apr 6, 2012 9:25am
Quoting A-speculator
technically i can tell u why i am bullish cable other than we are in the uptrend TL.

In swissy and fiber, we are actually at about the major S&R levels yesterday as you can see it in my chart, where the fibo lies..

I entered late in fiber & swissy not because i don't trust the levels, but because of MM since i am in cable and my MM forbids me risking more that 10% of my margin..
Well you can say whatever you want...Fundamentals are still heavily bearish for me with a possible hint of slight bullish for your sake...

And technically im neutral... im already leaning on seeing how we are gona open next week...
because for all i care now is GBPUSD will consolidate between 5900-5850 till close unless a confirmed break to either side happens... im not gona take sides as we near the end of the week...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,763
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:26am Apr 6, 2012 9:26am
Quoting bguguen
You are right about Gold not only traded in USD... HOWEVER... USD maintains the monopoly in gold bullions as they owns the majority maybe sth like 70% of world gold bullions... Germany being the next but US Gold bullion by 2.36 times of that Germany holds...

Now what this means is that... US has a larger supply of Gold Bullion to sell out to people... This means that with a larger supply, the price of gold bullion to buy with the americans will be cheaper than buying gold bullions from the Germans... Hence why majority of the world trade...
Your problem here is that you are only counting bullion reserves and forgetting the gold mines. There are more reserves underground than in bullions. China is the largest producer of Gold in the world and I think India is the largest consumer. South Africa and Australia have more gold underground per capita than the US.

I really do not give two hoots about your so called "theory" - good luck with it. Just remember though you don't even have a bachelors degree and have a lot to learn. Keep an open mind and carry on learning - I'm sure you will achieve your goals in life. I think I started reading the Financial Times before you were even born .

KR
  • #306,764
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:45am Apr 6, 2012 9:45am
Quoting Rasi
Your problem here is that you are only counting bullion reserves and forgetting the gold mines. There are more reserves underground than in bullions. China is the largest producer of Gold in the world and I think India is the largest consumer. South Africa and Australia have more gold underground per capita than the US.

I really do not give two hoots about your so called "theory" - good luck with it. Just remember though you don't even have a bachelors degree and have a lot to learn. Keep an open mind and carry on learning - I'm sure...

Quote
in the world and I think India is the largest consumer
First of... don't Think... just KNOW it... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold#cite_note-61


Whoa whoa whoa...
You really dont give two hoots?? i dont even dare give 1 hoot about you. or whoever you are my friend... im only sharing what i know and if you care only to criticize, i just dont see why i should pay any attention to you at all now... as far as im concerned my Theory and my trading style is still making me a nice 20% per month for all i know... go look at the trading system I DEVELOPED back in high school, i posted those trade details up on my forexfactory profile if you care to know but then WHO would give 2 hoots about a system capable of making 20% a month??

sif i dont know China is the largest gold producer... its has been one of the arguments that the RMB should become the next world reserve currency instead of the USD... but as long as Chinese government keeps their hands stuck into the RMB manipulating it here and there... there is no way the RMB is gona replace USD Yet.. China needs to completely allow their currency to float around with freedom, then maybe countries who are currently tied with the USD might be interested to drop USd and base their currency with China... THEN RMB would possibly become the next currency to be basing their currency with commodities...

Heres something people start to confuse... between GOLD that CHina could dig up and GOLD that US sells as a bullion...
"When you go to buy gold for gold's sake, what you are looking for is a practical and tradable form of gold - gold bullion. Gold bullion is a recognized weight and fineness of gold that you can purchase for the current price of gold, plus the small percentage costs incurred in refining, fabricating, and shipping that bullion to you." http://www.onlygold.com/neverboughtg...s_coins_fs.htm

As much gold as China has... what they could only do is make the gold into gold bars/gold coins to hold their monetary value... though tradable... its not as cost effective as GOLD BULLIONS of which the AMEIRCANS are MONOPOLY as i pointed out...

The fact that Gold is More cost effective, its the IMMEDIATE choice of gold for trading and investment purpose...

Indeed china australia and south africa can dig up as many gold as they want... but the world wouldnt like to incur much cost in the production of these gold bar in the first place as a form of smart investment....

I know i may not have my bachelor's degree but i know a lot more than an average 20 years old kid simply because ive been in stock trading since the age of 14, Apple stock is my success, still holding couple hundred shares of apple stocks i bought back in 2005 when it was around 60 USD...
and i started Currency Trading in my Sixth Form which is when im 17...
So i believe i can say i have a pretty firm understanding of the market as it is for the time being... however market dynamics change all the time and yes i constantly learn new stuff but surely who produces the most gold bullion or who produces the most gold would never slip my mind... dont you worry bout that...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,765
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:51am Apr 6, 2012 9:51am
Quoting bguguen
.

Now the HALIFAX HPI... being the Housing Price Index... increased to 2%, HOWEVER that may not necessarily be good news to UK... IF wages only rose by 1% and House prices rose by 2%, people are 1% worse off as house prices rose higher than their income... Reducing their desire to buy homes... which then Slow the UK economy down as domestic consumption decreases....
I really don't think you know how the housing market works in the UK.

If the average house price goes up by 2% then that is equivalent to ~ £3500 on an average house. This means people are willing to buy at higher prices and banks are willing to lend. You may not know this but most people in UK buy houses using bank borrowings - usually 4-5 times their annual salaries.

The house price inflation also indicates that confidence is returning to the market which augurs well for the economy. If past behaviour is anything to go by, people tend to pile into property as soon as prices start to go up (which created the last housing boom, fuelled by easy credit, that contributed to the last crash).

Moreover, the small business owners generally use the equity in their houses to expand their businesses. So any increases in house prices are going to increase the equity which in turn will help with economic recovery. Hence it is good news for GBP if there is house price inflation in UK in the near term. Unfortunately though, it is bad news for people who have to buy a house for the first time.

BTW, here is a glimpse of the most expensive apartments in London (world). The penthouse only costs £140 million. Maybe one day you could own one with your forex trading profits.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...irst-time.html

KR
  • #306,766
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:01am Apr 6, 2012 10:01am
Quoting Rasi
I really don't think you know how the housing market works in the UK.

If the average house price goes up by 2% then that is equivalent to ~ £3500 on an average house. This means people are willing to buy at higher prices and banks are willing to lend. You may not know this but most people in UK buy houses using bank borrowings - usually 4-5 times their annual salaries.

The house price inflation also indicates that confidence is returning to the market which augurs well for the economy. If past behaviour is anything to go by, people tend to...
You totally mistakened the fact that People in UK are not Borrowing money man... UK bank lending are seen dropping dude...go look it up... so tell me how are house prices rising because of demand when people are not willing to borrow to buy houses??
if people are willing to buy houses why are so many UK banks ie Lloyds TSB and RBS for instance Bankrupt due to the UK house market collapse it's having??

Yes you are absolutely in the right track that House prices could increase by Demand, but you are fogetting house prices could rise due to COST TOO...
say... the Value of Pound Falling therefore materials from abroad to build houses maybe rising perhaps??
im not saying Demand Push inflation dont exist.. but this is not what UK is facing my friend if it IS WHAT UK is having... then UK wouldnt be on the verge of another wave of economic recessions with GDP growth as low as 0.1% now would it??
I hardly doubt if House prices are rising because of demand push inflation that GDP growth in UK is so stagnant... to a point QE is needed to flood the economy with money just so they can hope Consumers are interested in spending once again...

Sometimes so called "experienced traders" like you claim to be by highlighting how i wasnt born the time you started reading financial times.... maybe your sort of snobbish "experience traders" could learn to be humbled by a youngster like me who actually has some crucial knowledge that some experienced economists often neglected because they find it insignificant??
im not saying all experienced traders here are snobbish but i do understand EGO plays a huge factor in a traders mind, but what seperate you from traders like BBking, Nav, smike, Faller, wormboy, 45condor etc... is the fact that THEY actually do appreciate my effort in attempting to explain things as simple as i can, sometimes so simple its mindblowing because you would've never thought of that...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,767
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:11am Apr 6, 2012 10:11am
Quoting bguguen
First of... don't Think... just KNOW it... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold#cite_note-61


The fact that Gold is More cost effective, its the IMMEDIATE choice of gold for trading and investment purpose...

... however market dynamics change all the time and yes i constantly learn new stuff but surely who produces the most gold bullion or who produces the most gold would never slip my mind... dont you worry bout that...
I think you are confused in thinking that the only way to invest in gold is to buy bullion. It is not...do some research. Here is a video.

Inserted Video


Anyway good luck with your theory and trading. I wish you well.

But my personal view is that the black gold will bring better returns in future. This is not an investment advice or recommendation. Do your own research.

Here is an article that appeared in the Telegraph recently.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...-not-gold.html

KR
  • #306,768
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:14am Apr 6, 2012 10:14am
Quoting bguguen
You totally mistakened the fact that People in UK are not Borrowing money man... UK bank lending are seen dropping dude...go look it up... so tell me how are house prices rising because of demand when people are not willing to borrow to buy houses??
if people are willing to buy houses why are so many UK banks ie Lloyds TSB and RBS for instance Bankrupt due to the UK house market collapse it's having??

Yes you are absolutely in the right track that House prices could increase by Demand, but you are fogetting house prices could rise due to COST TOO...
say......
hey mate, don't get turned down by somebody's ego mate.. i love to read what you wrote about fundamentals and i'm learning as well.. keep on posted mate, and in return i shall post my TA and sees weather it tally or not..
  • #306,769
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:20am Apr 6, 2012 10:20am
Quoting Rasi
I think you are confused in thinking that the only way to invest in gold is to buy bullion. It is not...do some research. Here is a video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GhhfciPY7I

Anyway good luck with your theory and trading. I wish you well.

But my personal view is that the black gold will bring better returns in future. This is not an investment advice or recommendation. Do your own research.

Here is an article that appeared in the Telegraph recently.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...-not-gold.html

KR...
LOL you are quoting a RESEARCH on a video of basically a guy vlogger talking about gold investments products?? WOW.... you've sunken to a new low...

But hey atleast you redeemed yourself you are indeed correct about black gold/oil rising...
but then i dont really like to trade oil... it is one instrument where countries whos got countless reserves and oil production like Saudi and USA can manipulate prices very often since they are not that worried to dip their hands in 100 buck a barrel of oil... where as gold... what is it 16xx usd per ounce of gold?? go figure...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,770
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:25am Apr 6, 2012 10:25am
Quoting A-speculator
hey mate, don't get turned down by somebody's ego mate.. i love to read what you wrote about fundamentals and i'm learning as well.. keep on posted mate, and in return i shall post my TA and sees weather it tally or not..
i'm not turned down by him hell ive even managed to see immediately what a muppet he is...
im sorry i really should be criticising but i've had my calm with this guy, he didnt treasure it, took advantage of it and so not gona return him the kindness...

but yes...
i've talked to my mentor in New Jersey and hes agreed that todays NFP would provide a nice topic for Ben to promote QE3 if he choses to... watch out for Bond Yields, if it rises before he talks he might actually promote QE3 despite the much resistance of the entire US economy...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,771
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:29am Apr 6, 2012 10:29am
Quoting bguguen
i'm not turned down by him hell ive even managed to see immediately what a muppet he is...
im sorry i really should be criticising but i've had my calm with this guy, he didnt treasure it, took advantage of it and so not gona return him the kindness...

but yes...
i've talked to my mentor in New Jersey and hes agreed that todays NFP would provide a nice topic for Ben to promote QE3 if he choses to... watch out for Bond Yields, if it rises before he talks he might actually promote QE3 despite the much resistance of the entire US economy...
alright mate.. thanks.

by the way, what are the fundamental reasons keeping you being bearish?
  • #306,772
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:30am Apr 6, 2012 10:30am
Quoting bguguen
i'm not turned down by him hell ive even managed to see immediately what a muppet he is...
im sorry i really should be criticising but i've had my calm with this guy, he didnt treasure it, took advantage of it and so not gona return him the kindness...

but yes...
i've talked to my mentor in New Jersey and hes agreed that todays NFP would provide a nice topic for Ben to promote QE3 if he choses to... watch out for Bond Yields, if it rises before he talks he might actually promote QE3 despite the much resistance of the entire US economy...

Quoting bguguen
Nice try in attempting to unhinge my theory but i just took a dump on you with bit of simple economics based on facts...

See the list of Gold Bullion Holders by country/organisation here...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_re...eserve_stat-10
I think u are being quite unfair..u did actually attack him..what did u expect him to? ofcourse he is going to reply..A DIFFERENCE OF VIEW IS FINE..i dont understand how people can get upset over a market especially as we dont even know one another..

perhaps because market isnt moving
  • #306,773
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:34am Apr 6, 2012 10:34am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I think u are being quite unfair..u did actually attack him..what did u expect him to? ofcourse he is going to reply..A DIFFERENCE OF VIEW IS FINE..i dont understand how people can get upset over a market especially as we dont even know one another..

perhaps because market isnt moving
difference in view usually will lead to dispute..
  • #306,774
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:34am Apr 6, 2012 10:34am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I think u are being quite unfair..u did actually attack him..what did u expect him to? ofcourse he is going to reply..
well my attack was my last post to him dude.. read His previous posts...
cant stand his bragging attitude dude...

"Oh ive been reading financial times since before you were born..." wtf does that suppose to mean??
yet another one of those traders who thinks trading is only for the more mature minded... as if im not mature for a 20... i wonder how many 20 actually cares about trading?? i think the majority would be spending daddy's trust fund money going to clubs every night i suppose...

BTW id like to STRESS this... PEOPLE trade Gold bullion gold that are already crafted into Cubes or certificates with a stamped mark... instead of gold still stuck underground... so no need to lecture me about how China has plenty of gold in the ground... for all i care Gold in ground is worthless as long as it stays in the ground.... you need to dig them up, melt them, mould them, mark them and pass some legal documentation in order for this Gold to be traded... reason why analysts out there are saying that the Price of Gold is 9/10 speculative price while the cost of producing it is pretty much 1/10th
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,775
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:43am Apr 6, 2012 10:43am
Quoting bguguen
well my attack was my last post to him dude.. read His previous posts...
cant stand his bragging attitude dude...

"Oh ive been reading financial times since before you were born..." wtf does that suppose to mean??
yet another one of those traders who thinks trading is only for the more mature minded... as if im not mature for a 20... i wonder how many 20 actually cares about trading?? i think the majority would be spending daddy's trust fund money going to clubs every night i suppose...

BTW id like to STRESS this... PEOPLE trade Gold bullion...

im staying the hell out!!!
both of u..loving your posts as i have no clue
  • #306,776
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:44am Apr 6, 2012 10:44am
Quoting A-speculator
difference in view usually will lead to dispute..

this is ecomonics for u..
  • #306,777
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:46am Apr 6, 2012 10:46am
Quoting nAVIN2007
this is ecomonics for u..
i think its more like ecomania, very close to wrestle mania..
  • #306,778
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:50am Apr 6, 2012 10:50am
Quoting A-speculator
i think its more like ecomania, very close to wrestle mania..
you know what they say... just like in wrestlemania...
in economics you think its a match of 1 versus 1.... but then again you will have another economist coming in with another theory countering both theories...

so it becomes a 1vs1vs1 match...

and yes like wrestlemania... it always ends with a bloodbath
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,779
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:52am Apr 6, 2012 10:52am
Quoting bguguen
You totally mistakened the fact that People in UK are not Borrowing money man... UK bank lending are seen dropping dude...go look it up... so tell me how are house prices rising because of demand when people are not willing to borrow to buy houses??
if people are willing to buy houses why are so many UK banks ie Lloyds TSB and RBS for instance Bankrupt due to the UK house market collapse it's having??

Yes you are absolutely in the right track that House prices could increase by Demand, but you are fogetting house prices could rise due to COST...
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #306,780
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:53am Apr 6, 2012 10:53am
Quoting bguguen
you know what they say... just like in wrestlemania...
in economics you think its a match of 1 versus 1.... but then again you will have another economist coming in with another theory countering both theories...

so it becomes a 1vs1vs1 match...

and yes like wrestlemania... it always ends with a bloodbath
agree
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