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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #306,741
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:24am Apr 6, 2012 8:24am
Quoting bguguen
NFP doesnt matter if Unemployment rate falls when EVEN when NFP falls... as far as it seems NFP jobs created fell from 250k to 120k... doesnt mean jobs shrank...
the CREATION of Jobs just didnt keep up...
it still created 120k and guess what.. 120k jobs created is good enough to lower unemployment rate... so this is a GOOD NEWS for US...

Now the HALIFAX HPI... being the Housing Price Index... increased to 2%, HOWEVER that may not necessarily be good news to UK... IF wages only rose by 1% and House prices rose by 2%, people are 1% worse off as...
Jobless rate fell because people stopped looking for work and were no longer counted, not because of the increase in jobs. I will agree that this one NFP report shouldnt be enough for a trend change though given the state of the UK and Europe.

A break and hold above 1.5930 would give me concern for further upside...until then I see the GBP heading south.
  • #306,742
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:24am Apr 6, 2012 8:24am
Quoting bguguen
NFP doesnt matter if Unemployment rate falls when EVEN when NFP falls... as far as it seems NFP jobs created fell from 250k to 120k... doesnt mean jobs shrank...
the CREATION of Jobs just didnt keep up...
it still created 120k and guess what.. 120k jobs created is good enough to lower unemployment rate... so this is a GOOD NEWS for US...

Now the HALIFAX HPI... being the Housing Price Index... increased to 2%, HOWEVER that may not necessarily be good news to UK... IF wages only rose by 1% and House prices rose by 2%, people are 1% worse off as house...
you're thinking too much mate..
  • #306,743
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:25am Apr 6, 2012 8:25am
Quoting nAVIN2007
yes but if house prices rose 1% thats still more money than the 2% increase wages because the value is bigger

ie 1% off 250k is more than 30k wage increase of 2%
so i guess the question is were more houses sold?? ..or am i off base? and i believe it did actually increase..so this is good for economy?
to make sure you are not mistaken... HPI increased by 2% while wages for all i know did not rise by 2% in the UK... im pretty sure wages in UK rose less than 2%...

Now house prices rise in 2 circumstances...
1. the ideal scenario for UK to face when HPI rises 2% is that the 2% comes from pure demand... however thats not the case if wages rose less than 2% because when wages rose by say 1% while house prices rose 2%, people are 1% worse off...

2. now heres the second scenario... which is what is happening to HPI... House prices Increased simply to cope with the fact that in order to maintain the market value of these beautiful houses internationally while the GBP is Depreciating... the only way to keep the value up is to increase prices...

Lower value of GBP and Higher prices of Houses, maintains the equilibrium value of these houses...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,744
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:25am Apr 6, 2012 8:25am
Quoting bguguen
NFP doesnt matter if Unemployment rate falls when EVEN when NFP falls... as far as it seems NFP jobs created fell from 250k to 120k... doesnt mean jobs shrank...
the CREATION of Jobs just didnt keep up...
it still created 120k and guess what.. 120k jobs created is good enough to lower unemployment rate... so this is a GOOD NEWS for US...

Now the HALIFAX HPI... being the Housing Price Index... increased to 2%, HOWEVER that may not necessarily be good news to UK... IF wages only rose by 1% and House prices rose by 2%, people are 1% worse off...
I understand what you're saying - US data is good...
but imo, the street expected good NFP and sold GBPUSD in expectant of this, so now when NFP is crap - a correction is needed to reverse this?

also house prices rising means the demand for housing has increased - so wages probably have gone up?
  • #306,745
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:26am Apr 6, 2012 8:26am
Quoting Fawlty
Jobless rate fell because people stopped looking for work and were no longer counted, not because of the increase in jobs. I will agree that this one NFP report shouldnt be enough for a trend change though given the state of the UK and Europe.

A break and hold above 1.5930 would give me concern for further upside...until then I see the GBP heading south.
there are no changes in the direction of the trend mate.. see daily, we are at the asc trendline, the move lower before is just the retracement in the lower TF..
  • #306,746
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:26am Apr 6, 2012 8:26am
The bearish of the cable already begun.. somehow,someone or something trying to reduce it... man... this kind of bank holiday seem working... but not going to work... not at all... so bearish is my best kind of option right now... going long?... hahaha..its better I be on the sideline for now...
  • #306,747
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:28am Apr 6, 2012 8:28am
Quoting Fawlty
Jobless rate fell because people stopped looking for work and were no longer counted, not because of the increase in jobs. I will agree that this one NFP report shouldnt be enough for a trend change though given the state of the UK and Europe.

A break and hold above 1.5930 would give me concern for further upside...until then I see the GBP heading south.
Very Very true... Jobless rate either fall because of people stopped looking for work and were no longer counted...

or it falls when enough jobs are created to increase the labour force...

however with unemployment rate consistently falling over the last months or 2 of really good NFP... 0.1% fall in unemployment to me and many other speculators would still see this as a good reason to BUY up the dollars as the US economy is better off..
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,748
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:31am Apr 6, 2012 8:31am
Quoting bguguen
to make sure you are not mistaken... HPI increased by 2% while wages for all i know did not rise by 2% in the UK... im pretty sure wages in UK rose less than 2%...

Now house prices rise in 2 circumstances...
1. the ideal scenario for UK to face when HPI rises 2% is that the 2% comes from pure demand... however thats not the case if wages rose less than 2% because when wages rose by say 1% while house prices rose 2%, people are 1% worse off...

2. now heres the second scenario... which is what is happening to HPI... House prices Increased simply...

hrmm..lot to digest here..thanks man
i have much to learn
  • #306,749
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:34am Apr 6, 2012 8:34am
Quoting _BBKing_
hong kong is one of cities i would really like to see one day!!
malaysia too....put malaysia in your visit's list...
I trade to live
  • #306,750
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:35am Apr 6, 2012 8:35am
Quoting nAVIN2007
hrmm..lot to digest here..thanks man
i have much to learn
Same goes with CPI (consumer price index)

a High CPI coming out of UK may not necessarily be good news for the UK...

a rise in the price of good and service is only good when the Rise of Wages is higher than that of the Rise in Price of goods and services...

Say...

Prices of a car rose by 5%
while your wages only rose by 1%

The 4% difference in the rise of the price of a car would immediately put people off from buying the car...

This is called a Cost push Inflation, something Greece has been facing over the greek debt crisis... reason why the Greece economy never recovered... simply because the price of things in there are soo expensive no body wants to buy greek product... and so Greek industries collapsed...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,751
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:37am Apr 6, 2012 8:37am
Quoting iqyu5an
L( H-deleted)ong L (K-deleted )ong = (L)ong (L)ong ??

lol.. this is what happened when forex trader became over active...
I trade to live
  • #306,752
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:44am Apr 6, 2012 8:44am
not enough volume in the market for this price to push through, if this is a normal trading day, i think we might have been up above 5900.. oh well..

because of lack of volume, the last minor support turned resistance at 5880 currently resisting the upward momentum..
  • #306,753
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:48am Apr 6, 2012 8:48am
Quoting A-speculator
not enough volume in the market for this price to push through, if this is a normal trading day, i think we might have been up above 5900.. oh well..

because of lack of volume, the last minor support turned resistance at 5880 currently resisting the upward momentum..
i remember i said 5900-5850 is a consolidation zone right?? well maybe time to listen sometimes....

but guess what... i may have a vague bullish view i could share but dunno if i should...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,754
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:52am Apr 6, 2012 8:52am
Quoting bguguen
i remember i said 5900-5850 is a consolidation zone right?? well maybe time to listen sometimes....

but guess what... i may have a vague bullish view i could share but dunno if i should...
it's ok mate, you can share it with me.. i have an open mind.. . Spit it out mate, since price ain't moving, we can discuss about it..

another thing is, i don't think price will consolidate, but price will be drifting upwards in slow motion.. lol.

After this move, i think next week, all the data coming from the UK/US/Euro will miraculously turn out green..
  • #306,755
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:56am Apr 6, 2012 8:56am
Quoting A-speculator
it's ok mate, you can share it with me.. i have an open mind.. . Spit it out mate, since price ain't moving, we can discuss about it..

another thing is, i don't think price will consolidate, but price will be drifting upwards in slow motion.. lol.

After this move, i think next week, all the data coming from the UK/US/Euro will miraculously turn out green..
Well the reason why i say there might be a possible bullish sentiment is that this NFP might present an opportunity for Big ol'Ben to use to his advantage... pinpoint the fact that Job Creating is slowing therefore he might use this as an excuse to promote QE3... packaging it as a means to further support the increase of jobs... while is main intention is to keep Treasury bond yields low...

That would mean he would be bluffing again and for the bulls sake you better pray Ben is on your side to promote QE3 so you get a smooth ride up...
but i'd be proper pissed if people actually bought the crap he's trying to sell..
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,756
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:59am Apr 6, 2012 8:59am
Quoting bguguen
Lower value of GBP and Higher prices of Houses, maintains the equilibrium value of these houses...
I liked this...very well explained of economics subject
I trade to live
  • #306,757
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:00am Apr 6, 2012 9:00am
Quoting bguguen
Well the reason why i say there might be a possible bullish sentiment is that this NFP might present an opportunity for Big ol'Ben to use to his advantage... pinpoint the fact that Job Creating is slowing therefore he might use this as an excuse to promote QE3... packaging it as a means to further support the increase of jobs... while is main intention is to keep Treasury bond yields low...

That would mean he would be bluffing again and for the bulls sake you better pray Ben is on your side to promote QE3 so you get a smooth ride up...
but i'd...
ok then , so how can this assumption being used in trading? i mean as an entry or exit? i'm just asking here because i need to know how exactly you use the fundamental knowledge in trading..
  • #306,758
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:05am Apr 6, 2012 9:05am
Quoting A-speculator
ok then , so how can this assumption being used in trading? i mean as an entry or exit? i'm just asking here because i need to know how exactly you use the fundamental knowledge in trading..
Well that is why i say its a potential... never intend to long it based on that... so dont do it...
my bias is still bearish for a very good reason...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,759
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:12am Apr 6, 2012 9:12am
Quoting bguguen
Well that is why i say its a potential... never intend to long it based on that... so dont do it...
my bias is still bearish for a very good reason...
technically i can tell u why i am bullish cable other than we are in the uptrend TL.

In swissy and fiber, we are actually at about the major S&R levels yesterday as you can see it in my chart, where the fibo lies..

I entered late in fiber & swissy not because i don't trust the levels, but because of MM since i am in cable and my MM forbids me risking more that 10% of my margin..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: fiber1.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy.gif Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy1.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #306,760
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:15am Apr 6, 2012 9:15am




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