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EUR/CHF

  • #4,541
  • Apr 6, 2012 2:55am Apr 6, 2012 2:55am
Quoting bguguen
Wow...
you managed to ignore the biggest industry in Switzerland and focus on the very tiny industry...
Switzerland's economic growth is thanks to UK economic weakness...
it is well known... when UK banks suffer... Swiss banks strengthens...
Have you never considered that Swiss banks were the driving force of Swiss economic growth??

I see.
I thought maybe winter season helped them as well.
  • #4,542
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:03am Apr 6, 2012 3:03am
The volatility term structure spiked up again after yesterday's breach.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/eurchf_vol_term_2.png
  • #4,543
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:09am Apr 6, 2012 3:09am
Quoting Adal
The volatility term structure spiked up again after yesterday's breach.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/eurchf_vol_term_2.png
nice, where you got this
  • #4,544
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:13am Apr 6, 2012 3:13am
Quoting zoran22
nice, where you got this
I'm building it myself with data periodically downloaded from here: http://storage.saxobank.com/fx-optio...ytics/otc.html
  • #4,545
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:20am Apr 6, 2012 3:20am
Quoting Adal
The volatility term structure spiked up again after yesterday's breach.
very nice, but what is it good for beyond that looks cool?
  • #4,546
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:22am Apr 6, 2012 3:22am
Quoting MiG123
i see little or no reason why snb would be intentionally going stop hunting with the big boys
Money


Quoting MiG123
and then intervene at lower levels. Through simple macroeconomic supply and demand principles, its obvious that selling francs at 1.1900 would be much more expensive then selling a similar amount of francs at 1.2000.
Money again

Quoting MiG123
Furthermore, with the amount of stops and big boys jumping into the bandwagon along the way, it'll take a colossal amount of francs more for the snb just to bring the rate back up to 1.2, compared to if they were to try to prevent the rate from falling below 1.2
I am not so sure they really want to blantantly manipulate (devalue) their currency

Quoting MiG123
Thus, don't see why snb would intentionally want spend 2-3x more francs just so as to 'punish' retailers who have been on their side all this while.
They don't care.
Quoting MiG123
That being said, one should note that I used the word intentionally alot above. We shouldn't discount the possibility of SNB failing to defend the 1.2 level despite their best efforts (although they have promised 'unlimited quantities'). This could happen under the weight of a massive coordinated assault from the big boys and banks, pushing the rate down in a split second to a level where an avalanche of stops get triggered and SNB simply can't do anything about it.
Its all a crap shoot!
  • #4,547
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:28am Apr 6, 2012 3:28am
Quoting worsttrader
very nice, but what is it good for beyond that looks cool?
LOL!!
  • #4,548
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:40am Apr 6, 2012 3:40am
Quoting worsttrader
very nice, but what is it good for beyond that looks cool?
well volats also have pattern of work...
when they are lowest they will rise
  • #4,549
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:44am Apr 6, 2012 3:44am
Hi bguguen

Just wanted to let you know how much i appreciate your contribution here.
Thanks man, good thinking.

Quoting bguguen
not an idea friend, being in this business i just know for a fact that SNB though determined to protect 1.20 would still stop hunt if proper coordination is planned...

SNB though wouldnt mind coming up with a plan with some other big banks to spend 1 billion to move the market slightly below 1.20 to take out the stops worth 20 billion

Imagine how many losers' Sell stops and long SL got triggered at 1.1999 lol im pretty sure a lot of people were putting orders and stop losses there if 1.20 is protected then 1.1999 be safe to short and to put...
  • #4,550
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:46am Apr 6, 2012 3:46am
It looks cool, but what does it mean?

Quoting worsttrader
very nice, but what is it good for beyond that looks cool?
  • #4,551
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:52am Apr 6, 2012 3:52am
I am not so sure they really want to blantantly manipulate (devalue) their currency




it is exact what they said they'll do
  • #4,552
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:01am Apr 6, 2012 4:01am
Quoting bguguen
...
I am an intervention trader for 5 years now so dont try my knowledge...
Hi bguguen,

you say that you are building a long position on the dips in direction of the intervention.

I would like to know how you played the recent interventions in the last 3 years in EUR/CHF. As I remember EUR/CHF kept breaching the limits the SNB had announced (1.60 and then 1.40). Going into the direction of the intervention would have been costly then.

Now its 1.20 - I find it likely that this limit will not hold, too. In my opinion a drop to 1.00 is more likely.

Regards,
TraderJF
  • #4,553
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:02am Apr 6, 2012 4:02am
Basically the plot shows the current price of EUR/CHF volatility.

So those which sold volatility after 15 march got a little owned yesterday, maybe even forced to buy it back. If going forward they will sell less volatility, there will be less delta-hedging in the market, thus the trading range will increase.

Or maybe the current volatility levels will be faded and we will be back again to 4 pip range days due to the increased delta-hedging.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_arbitrage
  • #4,554
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:08am Apr 6, 2012 4:08am
thanks for everyone, who tried to explain me what this volatility chart is good for
  • #4,555
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:11am Apr 6, 2012 4:11am
Does anybody have any experience and strategy of setting stop orders(buy stop in this case) during the past intervention?

I have some long orders and I wanna set some buy stop as well, and I wanna know ur opinions.

Thanks in advance
  • #4,556
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:14am Apr 6, 2012 4:14am
I dont normally trade EUR/CHF GBP/JPY is my pair. Looking at the charts for E/C I gt mixed signals the chart screams continuation down, but look at the 4H, that to me screams for me to add a small long with a tight stop, and leave it run, once it gets up a few pips I raise the SL to about 10 pips profit if it triggers and rid it on up, hate to say it i'm conflicted on this one, but in todays thin trading, the longs will certainly most likely win out today

Quoting zoran22
I am not so sure they really want to blantantly manipulate (devalue) their currency




it is exact what they said they'll do
  • #4,557
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:25am Apr 6, 2012 4:25am
But I have bought all sorts of buy stops on GBP/JPY, it seems like a good idea hr, because if you structure them so they cascade but dont overlap, on a run up one will fill and close, then the next will fill and close and as it moves up you will (if done right) only be left with one or two longs if it reverses down on you. And for sure pending orders are the way to go, they say only a fool enters @ market, A smart trader waits for price to come to him/her.

I would tend to be long here too and I would place my stop below the last low bar on the 1h @ 1.19984. Chart screams down on longer T'fs, but 4H looks good for some pips especially today, with th holiday trading will be thin and it should be easy to grab some pipe but price will be whippy and take out any tight Sl's you got

Quoting Blue.Trader
Does anybody have any experience and strategy of setting stop orders(buy stop in this case) during the past intervention?

I have some long orders and I wanna set some buy stop as well, and I wanna know ur opinions.

Thanks in advance
  • #4,558
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:33am Apr 6, 2012 4:33am
its clearly visible retail traders are quit the game yesterday. practically, there's no move today.
  • #4,559
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:41am Apr 6, 2012 4:41am
Granted it is a religous holiday and markets in the US are mostly closed I think. There is still a non farm payroll report which is the sinlge biggest news event of the month, and this could possibly affect EUR/CHF if the deviation on the news is much grater than expected up or down.

The markets will move today, and it will be a scalpers paradaise

Quoting worsttrader
its clearly visible retail traders are quit the game yesterday. practically, there's no move today.
  • #4,560
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:45am Apr 6, 2012 4:45am
Quoting rmrf
Granted it is a religous holiday and markets in the US are mostly closed I think. There is still a non farm payroll report which is the sinlge biggest news event of the month, and this could possibly affect EUR/CHF if the deviation on the news is much grater than expected up or down.

The markets will move today, and it will be a scalpers paradaise
okay sry
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