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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #306,621
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:44am Apr 6, 2012 12:44am
Quoting geniusztc
hello，bguguen，the same down trend line，but it has broken on my chart .i am waiting for the 1.5890. but who knows .

good luck .
I got that too. See if you can two TL's to intersect exactly at the 61.8 retrace
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,622
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:45am Apr 6, 2012 12:45am
Quoting Tiraje
tell me something bro,those candles that come out at the beginning of your trendline,exists or not?isn't it better to count them as well and waiting for price to touch that first,I mean like this
THEY are TL's, now try some fibs.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,623
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:48am Apr 6, 2012 12:48am
I doubt it is definitely time for a retrace though, but these patterns repeat themselves over and over on the GU and give us clues.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,624
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:55am Apr 6, 2012 12:55am
Does look like retrace
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,625
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:55am Apr 6, 2012 12:55am
Quoting Ill-b-back
THEY are TL's, now try some fibs.
actually that post was a QUETE to bguguen,i use fib's as well on lower timeframe,here in m30 price gets to 23.6 % retracement of previous fall and that trendline eagerly waiting for the price about(i think) 61.8 % retracement aroun 1.5960,the main problem for bulls is overcome 1.5905
here is the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #306,626
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:56am Apr 6, 2012 12:56am
Quoting bguguen
Okay felllas a bit of an update here.. and this is what im seeing...
Break above for possible retracement??
or break below for possible bear continuation?
Personally still thinking break downwards... since MACD is still in a bearish not... but then i could be wrong...
you're taking the TL to fit your bias mate.. i think for intraday, this will go at least 5900 as long as the 50 fibo hold..

atm 50% fib (5845-5850) has been broken in 4h, i need navin to push this price through.. where is he when i need him most?
  • #306,627
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:59am Apr 6, 2012 12:59am
Quoting bguguen
No not quite the same... i took the High where a couple candles back form the one you drawn the trendline from... i know it sounds stupid but on the daily i only looks as though its a attempted break of the trendline but it closes below it... in fact Draw the trendline on the daily chart and you'll know what i mean...
my trendline started from 1.6059 while yours is at 1.6037 or something...
It actually is a valid 4hr TL and we are piercing it.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,628
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:00am Apr 6, 2012 1:00am
Quoting A-speculator
you're taking the TL to fit your bias mate.. i think for intraday, this will go at least 5900 as long as the 50 fibo hold..

atm 50% fib (5845-5850) has been broken in 4h, i need navin to push this price through.. where is he when i need him most?
i'm looking forward for the area to be retested before any move up.. hopefully we can get down a bit to retest that area again..
  • #306,629
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:02am Apr 6, 2012 1:02am
TL's can appear invalid on different timeframes. Something to do with the nature of trading platform we use, I don't fully understand it.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,630
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:04am Apr 6, 2012 1:04am
Quoting Tiraje
actually that post was a QUETE to bguguen,i use fib's as well on lower timeframe,here in m30 price gets to 23.6 % retracement of previous fall and that trendline eagerly waiting for the price about(i think) 61.8 % retracement aroun 1.5960,the main problem for bulls is overcome 1.5905
here is the chart
Yes, I agree, just patterns that are there.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,631
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:14am Apr 6, 2012 1:14am
i'm looking to add a long at 5850 and if that price is tested not by a test from a series of candles, i will TP at 5900 but if it is tested by a series of candles, i will hold my longs.. and if we managed to break 5900, i will add another position on retest of 5900 with quite a big lot..

at least that's my plan..
  • #306,632
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:20am Apr 6, 2012 1:20am
Quoting A-speculator
i'm looking to add a long at 5850 and if that price is tested not by a test from a series of candles, i will TP at 5900 but if it is tested by a series of candles, i will hold my longs.. and if we managed to break 5900, i will add another position on retest of 5900 with quite a big lot..

at least that's my plan..
reduced my PO from 5850 to 5845 to minimize DD and SL level..
  • #306,633
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:23am Apr 6, 2012 1:23am
Quoting A-speculator
you're taking the TL to fit your bias mate.. i think for intraday, this will go at least 5900 as long as the 50 fibo hold..

atm 50% fib (5845-5850) has been broken in 4h, i need navin to push this price through.. where is he when i need him most?
I am not taking my trendline to fit my bias man... I drawn the trendline in Daily then zoomed into 4H thats the reason why it may look invalid in 4H while the Daily candle just shoed an attempt break but close below...
My trendline is a valid one...

If you dont believe me see for yourself here...
here the same trendline you want to argue about on GBPUSD Daily zoomed in
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdd1.gif Size: 17 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #306,634
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:29am Apr 6, 2012 1:29am
Quoting bguguen
I am not taking my trendline to fit my bias man... I drawn the trendline in Daily then zoomed into 4H thats the reason why it may look invalid in 4H while the Daily candle just shoed an attempt break but close below...
My trendline is a valid one...

If you dont believe me see for yourself here...
here the same trendline you want to argue about on GBPUSD Daily zoomed in
Attachment
i see.. maybe it's just me.. but i think there's not enough candles to draw the trendline from daily..

anyway, it's ok mate.. salute you with your fundamental capacity, wish i have the same as you..
  • #306,635
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:33am Apr 6, 2012 1:33am
Quoting A-speculator
i see.. maybe it's just me.. but i think there's not enough candles to draw the trendline from daily..

anyway, it's ok mate.. salute you with your fundamental capacity, wish i have the same as you..
Personally i think the Post FOMC movement we had this week was a sort of Market Thinning out effect... Residual Bears still in the Market but lack of liquidity to make it bust through those fib areas in fact the 1.5900-1.5850 consolidation zone turned to a 1.5855-1.5800 consolidation zone on illiquid markets...

But then i dont really know what to expect come US open...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,636
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:33am Apr 6, 2012 1:33am
Quoting Ill-b-back
NAVs is based on a 16 month chart, that is some serious high TF, he scalp the daily and weekly

That's one keyboard you owe me you twat

Nav, this one is gold you gotta admit lol
Thank You
  • #306,637
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:39am Apr 6, 2012 1:39am
Quoting bguguen
Personally i think the Post FOMC movement we had this week was a sort of Market Thinning out effect... Residual Bears still in the Market but lack of liquidity to make it bust through those fib areas in fact the 1.5900-1.5850 consolidation zone turned to a 1.5855-1.5800 consolidation zone on illiquid markets...

But then i dont really know what to expect come US open...
if you zoom out a little from your chart, perhaps you might see why i'm buying.. see the TL at about the 5800 which we discussed yesterday.. if you can remember, i'm looking at 5750 yesterday due to the fact that by moving to that area, it will confirmed a more bearish sentiment, the breakout of 2 strong support..

BUT, the price managed to trade above it and we see significant movement at about the support area yesterday, it does not indicate weakness is we see pullback like that at 2 major zones..

and since we made that low, there's no more test to the lowest price even in 1h.. which means, the price will not move down, not in the near term.. imho.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #306,638
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:43am Apr 6, 2012 1:43am
Quoting wormboy
That's one keyboard you owe me you twat

Nav, this one is gold you gotta admit lol
LOL yea i laughed at that the first time i saw it... wanted someone to LAUGH with instead of seemingly Laughing at... get what i mean?? AHAHHAHA scalping the daily and weekly haha
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,639
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:44am Apr 6, 2012 1:44am
Quoting wormboy
That's one keyboard you owe me you twat

Nav, this one is gold you gotta admit lol
ROFL

There goes my tea..jeez guys
  • #306,640
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:45am Apr 6, 2012 1:45am
Quoting bguguen
You are very correct intraday traders and Scalpers can also make lots of money specially on thin markets, as soon as news approaches you will see Scalpers resist trading...

and i do admit different people suit different trading style... ive never tried to criticise about Scalpers....
i just criticise on people who arent scalping who trades on Techs alone... because as soon as you start trading in H1 time frames you got to start getting fundies involved in it as some news events come in at weird times like 9:15 and stuff

But you are right... Both...
hello,
yes i agree! to be in a med term positions or even long term must consider also fundamental aspects.
a problem i personally find about fundamentals is: ok, we have no qe3 or we have more qe in uk etc... we have germany in deep red everywhere etc... but also with all these things, market could go up now 300-400 pips in GU EU etc, simply because there is something out there that is out of our comprehnsion. at least mine

for example, the move in EU from 1.30 to 1.34 seen in daily last swing up?! or better the move when came from 1.26-1.28: price was clearly driven for some reasons in uptrend. was not a normal move!! actually i find that every day we have to challenge more than previous, with this monster that when everything says down, it's time to look to buy. and when everything shows strenghtening and printing strong and everything is good, it's time to look to short. and the opposite is still true itself.

for example: is it purely random that gu price is here staggering around 5850, today!!?! in total thin liquidity, nearly no moves, end of the week, no markets running, banks "closed", and with NFP release later.
This is really a slaughter!! and IMO, this combo of factors is not random!
today if someone want, could drive price up 200pips then down 200 pips to close again here. or viceversa down then up! no need and no reasons in colour of news today IMO. if something decide that is time to get higher or lower levels for a misterious reason, it will simply do!

and last thing! i noticed that ben bernanke was favouring more qe and many other things, when price was in need to print higher and go covering 1.6000 line. after that, things changed!! not certainly random and not certainly due to the poor bernanke which actually, is the face of who must do things like these. after he goes, there will be some one else

summarizing: i agree in everything you say about fundamentals and thumbs up for last posts!!! but i would suggest to keep also eyes in strong tech factors that are happening clearly in every price! a combo of these 2 things will be good to take an huge advantage in market! for example short in 1.600 and not in 1.58 in GU

sorry for such a long post, but market is no moving so....
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