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EUR/CHF

  • #4,521
  • Apr 5, 2012 5:17pm Apr 5, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting Fizzerr
2 Minutes after the breach...

Attachment
HAHAHAHAHHAHAH
Bismillah
  • #4,522
  • Apr 5, 2012 5:19pm Apr 5, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting bguguen
you do realised there was 20 billion euro lined up right under 1.20 right?? Im telling you muppets around this thread that the snb and the big boys are in cahoots with each other striking a deal to take out the stops below...
Simply because 1 billion euro gets them 20 billion... Who wouldnt do that??

Now if i were you id be cautious about shorting eurchf...
What snb did today is to give bears a sign of hope that snb are unreliable and stuff... Exactly what snb want you to think... Snb is gona keep eurchf consolidating around 1.20 just so they can...
interesting idea from u fren....:d
Bismillah
  • #4,523
  • Apr 5, 2012 5:50pm Apr 5, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting krunfx
interesting idea from u fren....:d
not an idea friend, being in this business i just know for a fact that SNB though determined to protect 1.20 would still stop hunt if proper coordination is planned...

SNB though wouldnt mind coming up with a plan with some other big banks to spend 1 billion to move the market slightly below 1.20 to take out the stops worth 20 billion

Imagine how many losers' Sell stops and long SL got triggered at 1.1999 lol im pretty sure a lot of people were putting orders and stop losses there if 1.20 is protected then 1.1999 be safe to short and to put Long stop losses aint it... no it aint... LOL
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #4,524
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:28pm Apr 5, 2012 6:28pm
Will we see 1.2000 first or 1.2050 in thin markets?
  • #4,525
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:30pm Apr 5, 2012 6:30pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
Will we see 1.2000 first or 1.2050 in thin markets?
in thin markets?? flat... in range between 1.2050 and 1.20
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #4,526
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:31pm Apr 5, 2012 6:31pm
Quoting bguguen
not an idea friend, being in this business i just know for a fact that SNB though determined to protect 1.20 would still stop hunt if proper coordination is planned...

SNB though wouldnt mind coming up with a plan with some other big banks to spend 1 billion to move the market slightly below 1.20 to take out the stops worth 20 billion

Imagine how many losers' Sell stops and long SL got triggered at 1.1999 lol im pretty sure a lot of people were putting orders and stop losses there if 1.20 is protected then 1.1999 be safe to short and to put...
Well... I was in agreement earlier also I posted same.. crooks/crooks brothers.. they have all the black money stored in the swiss banks and UBS like banks are child of SNB. They will make sure they recover there losses first if all the stop losses and than they will care about economy which as per indicators in not in that bad shape at this time.. They can make floor 1.200 like this..
  • #4,527
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:32pm Apr 5, 2012 6:32pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
Will we see 1.2000 first or 1.2050 in thin markets?
i bet towards the floor 1.20
  • #4,528
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:37pm Apr 5, 2012 6:37pm
Quoting Fx-gtg
i bet towards the floor 1.20
Hell of course you'd bet towards the floor... but personally for a pair like EURCHF i dont really like to go against intervention directions if you get my drive because shit will hit the fan.... one thing for certain is you think you go the market all figured out, you short the EURCHF for 100 pips... you are 50+ pips in green the Boom -500 pips in seconds...
be wise and dont bet against intervention directions...
i personally think SNB woudl allow EURCHF to slip to as low at 1.19 before they jump in and screw everyone up.... when they let it slip imagine the amount of people who think its a good time to jump onto the bandwagon of Short the EURCHF until they realise its all a stop hunt move to take out stops so their interventions would be a lot stronger then say going against a market with 20 billion worth of money on the downside...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #4,529
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:40pm Apr 5, 2012 6:40pm
surprrised to see no reaction at 1.2 means bigboys dont buy the floor and snb is testing big boys. Now that retailers are out lets see
  • #4,530
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:42pm Apr 5, 2012 6:42pm
Rumors are 8 billion are still left in bid.
There are still traders putting limit buy orders at 1.1900 so if there will be drop
I expect 1.1800
  • #4,531
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:43pm Apr 5, 2012 6:43pm
For those who think it's a possibility for the SNB to let the stops go off below 1.20 before intervening...why would they not have just allowed that to occur earlier today when it clearly had the downward momentum and broke 1.20 briefly? They could have easily let the stops go off and then intervene much lower rather than sit on the bid and prevent it from falling further.

If the SNB truly would have wanted or allowed a stop cascade to occur, it could have just allowed it earlier rather than choosing to defend.


I'm curious what you guys think about that.
  • #4,532
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:53pm Apr 5, 2012 6:53pm
Quoting ajt1970
For those who think it's a possibility for the SNB to let the stops go off below 1.20 before intervening...why would they not have just allowed that to occur earlier today when it clearly had the downward momentum and broke 1.20 briefly? They could have easily let the stops go off and then intervene much lower rather than sit on the bid and prevent it from falling further.

If the SNB truly would have wanted or allowed a stop cascade to occur, it could have just allowed it earlier rather than choosing to defend.


I'm curious what you...

Well, they have shown they are concern
Now more traders are trying to long at these levels and more stops will be placed around 1.1900-1.1950.. next levels to watch..
Also,it happen during london trading when the markets are more actives and volumes are high so its not thin markets...

This time again.. big players will come with more than 10 billions to take stops and break floor.

The moot point is no step taken by Swiss government to further weaken franc
like BOJ.
They are not able to appoint new SNB president for 4months now.. Markets take all the factors IN and always right

Also, SNB has not deterred investors with big move, they are sitting on bids around 1.2000 only.

Let's see how long cat/mouse will play..
  • #4,533
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:02pm Apr 5, 2012 7:02pm
I read comment on WSJ

About "Europe's financial problems continuing to fester," Euro Zone mavens' continuing illusion — "We're okay now" — is a bit like the parody, "If your head is in the oven and your feet in the refrigerator, on average you're comfortable."
  • #4,534
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:07pm Apr 5, 2012 7:07pm
Above 1.2000 retailers are protecting for SNB...and see price doesn't move at all..

When investors come.. they come big.. 1.2036 to 1.1900 in seconds..
so SNB needs to protect 1.2000 only..
  • #4,535
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:54pm Apr 5, 2012 8:54pm
http://tinyurl.com/7hn4r93
  • #4,536
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:59pm Apr 5, 2012 8:59pm
Quoting ajt1970
For those who think it's a possibility for the SNB to let the stops go off below 1.20 before intervening...why would they not have just allowed that to occur earlier today when it clearly had the downward momentum and broke 1.20 briefly? They could have easily let the stops go off and then intervene much lower rather than sit on the bid and prevent it from falling further.

If the SNB truly would have wanted or allowed a stop cascade to occur, it could have just allowed it earlier rather than choosing to defend.


I'm curious what you...
well ive got a low of 1.1999 and maybe 20billion euro of orders exactly there?? anyways if it costs 1 billion EURO just to push it 1 pip below 1.20 floor that means theres already some big profit made by hitting 1.1999 by just spending 1 billion... the more deeper it gets the more expensive the cost of pushing it down... and the less and less the risk to reward would increase for them....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #4,537
  • Apr 5, 2012 9:56pm Apr 5, 2012 9:56pm
Quoting Fizzerr
http://tinyurl.com/7hn4r93
LOL im not even gona bother arguing bout this... this is too funny... i wonder who would need more of a miracle...

a guy with Longing EURCHF taking a 100 pip drawdown as it goes to 1.19 or a guy whos Shorting EURCHF taking a 500 pip drawdown as it goes to 1.25 when intervention comes in...
Take your pick and be smart about it muppet... cuz you are on my muppet list now...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #4,538
  • Apr 5, 2012 10:49pm Apr 5, 2012 10:49pm
I think there will be a move up this month, maybe up to 1.21.
SNB still has a few cards in their hand.
A new president will be appointed, some rumours will be created.
I think 1.20 level needed to be tested.
It wasn't perfect, but they will know how to protect it better next time.
Don't forget the winter season is over now, maybe their growth in the last month was because skiing...
  • #4,539
  • Apr 5, 2012 11:30pm Apr 5, 2012 11:30pm
Quoting rcrist
I think there will be a move up this month, maybe up to 1.21.
SNB still has a few cards in their hand.
A new president will be appointed, some rumours will be created.
I think 1.20 level needed to be tested.
It wasn't perfect, but they will know how to protect it better next time.
Don't forget the winter season is over now, maybe their growth in the last month was because skiing...
Wow...
you managed to ignore the biggest industry in Switzerland and focus on the very tiny industry...
Switzerland's economic growth is thanks to UK economic weakness...
it is well known... when UK banks suffer... Swiss banks strengthens...
Have you never considered that Swiss banks were the driving force of Swiss economic growth??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #4,540
  • Apr 5, 2012 11:55pm Apr 5, 2012 11:55pm
i see little or no reason why snb would be intentionally going stop hunting with the big boys and then intervene at lower levels. Through simple macroeconomic supply and demand principles, its obvious that selling francs at 1.1900 would be much more expensive then selling a similar amount of francs at 1.2000.

Furthermore, with the amount of stops and big boys jumping into the bandwagon along the way, it'll take a colossal amount of francs more for the snb just to bring the rate back up to 1.2, compared to if they were to try to prevent the rate from falling below 1.2

Thus, don't see why snb would intentionally want spend 2-3x more francs just so as to 'punish' retailers who have been on their side all this while.

That being said, one should note that I used the word intentionally alot above. We shouldn't discount the possibility of SNB failing to defend the 1.2 level despite their best efforts (although they have promised 'unlimited quantities'). This could happen under the weight of a massive coordinated assault from the big boys and banks, pushing the rate down in a split second to a level where an avalanche of stops get triggered and SNB simply can't do anything about it.
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