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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #306,481
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:41am Apr 5, 2012 7:41am
Quoting _BBKing_
yes and also last week's low.
hmmmph i dont really like to compare it with "last week's low" knowing ben bernanke was lying being dovish on the US economy and stuff just to keep yields down which propped up EUR and GBP while he was at it soo... wouldnt say i like to keep an eye at 5800 fundy wise but Tech and Tech alone 5800 seems to be GBPUSD bull's last battle before thing start looking ugly for them...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #306,482
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:43am Apr 5, 2012 7:43am
Quoting A-speculator
i think the strongest resistance is between 5700-5750.. i think we will break the 61 fibo.. that fibo is not a problem but the high of the candles (5750) before breakout to the upside will somehow supporting the price...
dude... once 61.8 fibo clears the thing WILL head down to 100%... it might stall in the middle to retest 61.8 fibo turned resistance but the general idea is if 61.8% fib support breaks... 100% is next support in line...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #306,483
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:45am Apr 5, 2012 7:45am
Quoting bguguen
dude... once 61.8 fibo clears the thing WILL head down to 100%... it might stall in the middle to retest 61.8 fibo turned resistance but the general idea is if 61.8% fib support breaks... 100% is next support in line...
check you extension mate.. i don't think this thing will go down straight to 100%, minor swing will play a role.. 161 fibo is about 5700..

will post a chart when i get home..
  • #306,484
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:47am Apr 5, 2012 7:47am
Quoting A-speculator
i think the strongest resistance is between 5700-5750.. i think we will break the 61 fibo.. that fibo is not a problem but the high of the candles (5750) before breakout to the upside will somehow supporting the price...
both are very important IMO
the 61 fibo breaking can mean a go for the 5750-5700 peaks, which are really latest thing to support price before more tank.

problem is about where could happen to see new demand coming in market and push price up more than 50pips. could never happen until next year, but the more a price goes down steep, the more i expect a strong pushup.
and same in the opposite side of course ...
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  • #306,485
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:47am Apr 5, 2012 7:47am
Quoting A-speculator
check you extension mate.. i don't think this thing will go down straight to 100%, minor swing will play a role.. 161 fibo is about 5700..

will post a chart when i get home..
Great, maybe im missing something i dont know of... Thx for posting when you get home looking forward to see...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #306,486
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:47am Apr 5, 2012 7:47am
1. EUR/USD has fell down enough and need an upward correction, when E/U will take upward correction , G/U will move up by 1.5 times greater speed. You can see that E/U has tumbled by 1.5Xspeed of that of G/U. It means that GBP is stronger.
2. All these down movement in E/U and G/U started since FOMC statement. And each fundamentals has a limitation of peak effecting period. Then correction will take place obviously.
3. In this 2nd quarter of year, GBP has continuous four positive data (a) Manufacturing PMI on Monday (b) Construction PMI on Tuesday (c) Halifax HPI m/m & (d) Services PMI on Wednesday.
Only bad is Manufacturing Production m/m today
4. NFP may not surprise the market because ADP came very near to forecasted data. Anyway, people will be closing their short position in E/U and G/U before NFP consequently upward correction will likely appear.

Conclusion: I am expecting upward move in GBP/USD from area near 5800.
  • #306,487
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:48am Apr 5, 2012 7:48am
Anyone up for some Beef Burgers??
i thought it might be a good idea for a meal since we slaughtered a lot of cows/bulls and i dont want the meat to go to waste... lol
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #306,488
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:49am Apr 5, 2012 7:49am
Quoting PoundTrader
been long since 1.5844 will try to close at 1.5926. then will sell 1.5926, s/l 1.5961, t/p 1.5891
damn just miss out, still made good pips tho.
  • #306,489
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:56am Apr 5, 2012 7:56am
Quoting corpo30
1. EUR/USD has fell down enough and need an upward correction, when E/U will take upward correction , G/U will move up by 1.5 times greater speed. You can see that E/U has tumbled by 1.5Xspeed of that of G/U. It means that GBP is stronger.
2. All these down movement in E/U and G/U started since FOMC statement. And each fundamentals has a limitation of peak effecting period. Then correction will take place obviously.
3. In this 2nd quarter of year, GBP has continuous four positive data (a) Manufacturing PMI on Monday (b) Construction PMI...
1. Mate you obviously also missing the fact that EURGBP is supposed to correct back upwards right?? this should give the EUR the much needed retracement and GBP the further fall... see what i did there?? simply saying EURGBP is one you should be watching out since its being played around a lot recently and you cant just think GBPUSD and EURUSD gona move the same...
2. I heard from sources that the Halifax HPI published was a hoax.... in fact its bad news for UK to have 2.2% rise in house prises while their manufacturing as seen today fell by 1%... this in effect is Inflation... People's income value is lowered and house prices rose up... do you think people would be demanding houses EVEN more?? lol
3. You do realise in the 2nd quarter the manufacturing PMI is only propped up by UK BoE increased QE and spending on its sectors to prevent UK from falling back in recession?? UK is supposedly headed back for recession, only thing keeping it out is BoE's Printed money circulating around... but eventually it wont last...
4. We've sort of discussed about NFP yesterday, NFP coming bad or NFP coming Good is a win win situation for US... NFP Bad would spark a short term spike up in risk pairs, but a long term risk aversion...
while GOOD NFP would spark a short term Dollar Buying (not necessarily risk aversion) and an increase in US's economic growth in the long term...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #306,490
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:56am Apr 5, 2012 7:56am
Quoting corpo30
1. EUR/USD has fell down enough and need an upward correction, when E/U will take upward correction , G/U will move up by 1.5 times greater speed. You can see that E/U has tumbled by 1.5Xspeed of that of G/U. It means that GBP is stronger.
2. All these down movement in E/U and G/U started since FOMC statement. And each fundamentals has a limitation of peak effecting period. Then correction will take place obviously.
3. In this 2nd quarter of year, GBP has continuous four positive data (a) Manufacturing PMI on Monday (b) Construction PMI...
And also, market will touch trend line near this 5800 area and probabely bounce.
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  • #306,491
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:57am Apr 5, 2012 7:57am
a down full bar in UCAD H1 mean something correlated, maybe?
  • #306,492
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:57am Apr 5, 2012 7:57am
Quoting corpo30
1. EUR/USD has fell down enough and need an upward correction, when E/U will take upward correction , G/U will move up by 1.5 times greater speed. You can see that E/U has tumbled by 1.5Xspeed of that of G/U. It means that GBP is stronger.
2. All these down movement in E/U and G/U started since FOMC statement. And each fundamentals has a limitation of peak effecting period. Then correction will take place obviously.
3. In this 2nd quarter of year, GBP has continuous four positive data (a) Manufacturing PMI on Monday (b) Construction PMI...
once ucad start pushing back up, we will see cable start to move down mate..
  • #306,493
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:00am Apr 5, 2012 8:00am
Quoting A-speculator
once ucad start pushing back up, we will see cable start to move down mate..
Oh my god i love you, smart as a cunning fox around...
but buddy you still short AUDNZD like you said you would keep shorting??

look what AUDNZD is doing?? bottoming i presume, interesting aint it... not a surprise for me though... LOL
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #306,494
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:02am Apr 5, 2012 8:02am
Quoting PoundTrader
been long since 1.5844 will try to close at 1.5926. then will sell 1.5926, s/l 1.5961, t/p 1.5891
yep the overall trend was down.
  • #306,495
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:03am Apr 5, 2012 8:03am
Quoting PoundTrader
yep the overall trend was down.
nice one pound! hi5
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #306,496
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:04am Apr 5, 2012 8:04am
giving an eye in some main daily fibos i see as shown in chart
i agree on the down pressure, and is not easy to think we go more up again from here anytime soon.
but for what i see, few pips below here there are a lot of factors that could weaken selling pressure.
assuming that now things will not get worse than what they actually are, i think at these levels there are a lot of taking profits coming from 1.60 and 1.59 and price need to go more up to find new pressure to breake these lower levels.
strongest to be broken is now this 5800 and then around 5750-70 but IMO 5780-5800 is the area where if price goes, better start looking for longs or to see if happens reversal in price, like did few hours ago @5816 seen in m5 m15 TF

in this scenario, a straight breaking of 5750-80 area looks to me very hard.
everything is possible, ok.. but from here i will be looking next days to buy somewhere targeting above. or else to sell somewhere above to get again around here or... lower.
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  • #306,497
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:04am Apr 5, 2012 8:04am
Quoting corpo30
And also, market will touch trend line near this 5800 area and probabely bounce.
Price may respect trend line and may bounce to 5950 , nomatter finally it will continue down move and break TL due to better economy of The US in comparison with that of The UK. I will be watching the movement and fundamentals of both country. But right now, upward retracement till 5950 is my idea.
  • #306,498
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:05am Apr 5, 2012 8:05am
Quoting bguguen
Oh my god i love you, smart as a cunning fox around...
but buddy you still short AUDNZD like you said you would keep shorting??

look what AUDNZD is doing?? bottoming i presume, interesting aint it... not a surprise for me though... LOL
not in that pair anymore..
  • #306,499
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:07am Apr 5, 2012 8:07am
Quoting bguguen
Anyone up for some Beef Burgers??
i thought it might be a good idea for a meal since we slaughtered a lot of cows/bulls and i dont want the meat to go to waste... lol
bro, you been "slaughtering" bulls for the last 2 months or so since 1.56, let's see if it's for real this time, or maybe we won't see you for another 2 weeks if we spike north again (talk about caves )
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,500
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:10am Apr 5, 2012 8:10am
it's MURDA bulls have died this week, i like weeks like this, easy 300 pips up and down all week long but the overall trend was down, im drunk im out
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