EUR/CHF

CPI and FCR..

and the banks will be closed friday-monday

I am expecting.. spike 1.2050 tomorrow london session and closing
1.2038 friday..

[quote=tunera;5542736] Well personally, I'm glad you posted.

Good point here, and thats not what I'm worried about. I'm just thinking about all the people that have been selling EUR/CHF, and thats why the cross is going down.

If the SNB wants to shake out all the longs before they intervene, which does 'nt sound so farfetched to me, why should I not profit from this possibility.

It's easy enough to hedge a long with the same amount of shorts and I've got a plan involving stops, limits and entries for every possible move from the SNB.

I'm even ready if they do nothing, which will probably be the case.

Let's talk about the famous september intervention, do you remember.. it happened just the day of FCR, just some hours before the release.

as far as i remember, it happened between 9-10 o'clock (cet), just after fcr and cpi datas

oke..let it be !
i do not care if they intervene tomorrow :-))

they must do it...we r under 2040, today we have seen 20299. tomorrow important datas come and then they go on holiday for 4 days. they wont risk to not to defend the peg, they must intervene.

Sorry as I don't have the correct software to post a chart on this site, but I have a feeling that we are right on the verge of intervention. Today seems to be forming a not only a doji, but we see another false break of the inside bar setup. I have my buy orders locked and loaded just like the rest of you. I think really do believe we could all get what we've been waiting on tomorrow.

I'm asking the following questions in the conditions that Swiss economy is doing very well and SNB reported profits.
- Why SNB should spend huge amount of money in the following cases :
1) to take out all the SLs below 1.20 and then again to rise the pair at 1.30-1.35, in the conditions that EUR is weaken than in the past?
2) to rise the peg to 1.30-1.35 (without any peg brake) and dealing with all profit exists ?

In my opinion, till all the economic data will not show a recession on Swiss economy, the pair will be trade between 1.204-1.21 for many months/years (very rare to see 1.203). Once the UE will come out from the recession (EUR will become stronger - if will be the case in the future, SNB will remove the peg), than automatically the pair will go up because of the traders and of the good EUR market conditions. The traders one by one will close their positions, taking the money from the "safe heaven" and invest them again in EUR.

Till then, we will see only spikes around 1.213-1.214 and then fall back to 1.204-1.205. We will deal with many rumors / news (like some Swiss politician says the peg should be raised at 1.40). It's all part of a physiological game and this is making the market so dynamic.

All the scenarios are possible and hopping as many of you to wake up one day and to see 1.30-1.40 . Till then, I'm bull from 1.204 and ready to TP at 1.21.

Nothing is Guaranteed, Risk of EURCHF Declines Remains Real Despite SNB Floor
Financial markets are not known for their kindness, and even the threat of Swiss National Bank intervention does not guarantee that the Euro/Swiss Franc rewards speculators and remains above SFr 1.20. The fact that traders are so heavily net-long EURCHF suggests that any intervention could be quite expensive.
As the central bank would buy the EURCHF, speculators would aggressively sell long positions and book profits. Such a move could potentially offset the intervention and indeed make it quite expensive for the SNB to maintain their floor. That’s exactly what we have seen in previous failed SNB interventions, and you can be sure that central bankers are acutely aware of said risks.
Could we potentially see the EURCHF dip below SFr 1.20? Absolutely. The Swiss National Bank could stick to its word and defend the floor, but that doesn’t rule out an intraday spike below to take a lot of speculators out of their positions. A “run on stops” and momentary dip below 1.20 seems entirely plausible when one considers that the SNB does not want to have speculators sell into major interventions.
--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

David, I think there are some flaws in your analysis. Firstly, the long retail traders are such an insignificant element of the EURCHF trade that I doubt the SNB is losing sleep over a few of us making a few $$ on an intervention. Heck, we can't even move this pair up 5 pips without being knocked back down. What makes you think our selling will have any effect at all if we decide to take money off the table? The fact that FXCM traders are 98% long means nothing if you don't tell us what percentage that is of the whole EURCHF market. If it's less than 0.0001% as I'm guessing, this figure is meaningless, and I'm sure the SNB isn't worried about it.

Secondly, did you happen to read this statement?

"The SNB is on watch day and night to ensure the CHF1.20 per euro level is maintained, and this applies from Monday morning when the market opens in Sydney to Friday night when it closes in New York," (SNB's) Moser said Thursday, in a text prepared for delivery at an SNB money market conference.

Do you really believe the SNB is going to take a little nap and let the market take out all the stops below 1.20 and punish the evil speculators who are LONG this pair? It's not going to happen. The SNB has drawn a line in the sand and has made very clear to everybody where it is - 1.2000 - AND THEY WILL DEFEND THAT LEVEL WITH UNLIMITED RESOURCES. Why make a statement like that if they don't mean it? Credibility is everything for these guys.

As for an intervention, I agree it would be pointless for the SNB to drive the pair up a couple of hundred pips for it to only come back down to the same level a day later. The SNB obviously hoped the market would rise on its own but this hasn't happened. In my view, the only way they can move this pair up is for Europe to sort itself out (unlikely in the near term), get government assistance (negative interest rates, currency controls etc) or raise the floor.

If I was the SNB I would put out a statement saying the floor is to be increased to 1.21 from the start of London trade next week and that further increases could come at any time. The market would then do all the heavy lifting as the shorts covered and the SNB wouldn't need to do a thing. They'd also book profits on their currency purchases to date. The threat of further increases would probably take pressure off the SNB as holders of francs slowly realise they are in a lose-lose situation.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm just trying to inject some common sense into this debate.

the pressure in On

I do not rule out a whip saw action to clear most of the weak hands. But what I find doubtfull is why should the SNB want to rise the floor above 1.20, I don't think that they are as one track minded as the traders here on this thread... the target is to keep the floor, and so far so good.

http://forexordersandsentiment.blogs...rder-flow.html

I think that this is the scenario that the SNB has carved, They have all the options and they will choose the one that hurts the most and helps their porpose of weakening the CHF... I totaly agree with your view and I belive that the CHF will weaken further but in the process not every one will make money, the mkt will find a way to pay the smallest share of traders and find the way to finance the operation by pushing the mkt both ways. Weak hands will be hurt bad.

Question: After seeing the price so low, How many of you want to come out of trade or reduce the target

a) Break even <1.2080
b) 1.2060-80
c) 1.2100-1.2150 (swing high)
d) 1.2150-1.2250
e)1.2300-1.2400
f)1.2500
g)1.300
i) I will stay in the trade whatsoever.

I am ready to come out 1.2064 at this time.. to small profit.. very close to break even..Just looking for one good spike to come out

my strategy for trading this is simple. leverage it as much as I can with a 1500 pip stop. end of the day it will return above 1.2 no matter how grim it gets. been doing this long enough to know the end result. If/when the peg is broken I'll keep adding to position on every 50 pip drop for those entire 1500 pips. I've already calculated how much I can afford to add to the position ahead of time obviously and placed the orders. I'm aware most traders cannot afford the margin on this strategy, but it's full proof and fool proof.

I started going crazy long around 76 on usdjpy too because I knew intervention wasn't far away. Japan's national bank changed course and went QE route which worked out just as well. Either way, 1.2 will be defended or the Swiss will perhaps start their own type of QE program. The only thing that will change the peg is if the EU has a structural collapse/break up, which is very very unlikely this year. Speculators like Soros aren't bluffing when they say the SNB has unlimited resources and that he wouldn't trade against them. Nobody is going to "break the bank" in this situation.

I'll also keep buying around 1.2040 and adding on dips and shorting above 1.21xxs, rinsing and repeating until/if an intervention appears. As someone mentioned, it could happen tomorrow, or in months or even never. Obviously 1.2020 and below is exciting for anybody as heavily invested in this currency pair as I am.

Mmmm the pair have officially broken/tested the 2012 low of 1.2030 (yesterday it was tested in some broker's feeds), we are now in defcon 1, be careful very careful!

@coolkaps4u nice question me too i am a little bit curious to see how ff traders manage their exits from this trades, me i'm looking for a far number but i'm aware that it may take months/years to be reached, just long term trade.

Have a good day everybody!


(below the snb)

(not for real, just for fun)

thanks bro for improving a mood))))
have a nice day all of you traders!!!!!!!!!!!!!!