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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #306,281
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:02pm Apr 4, 2012 4:02pm
Quoting bguguen
came on to see what people are talking about now...

Look at this chart and you will see the GBPUSD has fallen BEYOND the trendline which pretty much defined the USD weakness over the last week when [b]Ben told lies about US economy being fragile...
What makes you think that Mr. Ben Bernanke would lie? Do you have any personal knowledge about him to question his integrity? What if what he said was true?

You support your claim based on a few statistics released recently. However, have you ever heard the phrase coined by the former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"?

45Condor noted in his recent post reminded people here that this is an election year in the US and; therefore one has to expect some "good news" with Government statistics. If we take your position that the US economy is in a better shape than UK's economy, how come GBP strengthened against USD by 4% in the last two years and ~2% in the last three months? Surely it cannot be due to temporary market fluctuations.

I hope the above gives you some food for thought.

Good luck with your trading.
  • #306,282
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:07pm Apr 4, 2012 4:07pm
Quoting bguguen
came on to see what people are talking about now...
Seems like bulls climbing right back out of their caves seeing as GBPUSD is not tanking further...
but not time to get excited for the Bulls...
GBPUSD fell back into a consolidation zone 1.5900-1.5850, with GBPUSD tested support at 1.5850 and retraced some, doesnt mean Bulls are back on the table...

Look at this chart and you will see the GBPUSD has fallen BEYOND the trendline which pretty much defined the USD weakness over the last week when Ben told lies about US economy being fragile but sustainable...

Personally...
I agree that if the NFP comes out good it's bullish the dollar and also bullish for equities, US ones, that is. What I think is also possible is this: If NFP comes out badly, it's a risk off scenario which also strengthens the dollar. Is this possible? I think it is. I'm on a mission.
Gone to a better place
  • #306,283
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:10pm Apr 4, 2012 4:10pm
Quoting Rasi
What makes you think that Mr. Ben Bernanke would lie? Do you have any personal knowledge about him to question his integrity? What if what he said was true?

You support your claim based on a few statistics released recently. However, have you ever heard the phrase coined by the former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"?

45Condor noted in his recent post reminded people here that this is an election year in the US and; therefore one has to expect some "good news" with Government statistics....
You could equally say it weakened by x per cent in the last 5 years? You just picked a low for your comment?
Gone to a better place
  • #306,284
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:11pm Apr 4, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting smikester
I agree that if the NFP comes out good it's bullish the dollar and also bullish for equities, US ones, that is. What I think is also possible is this: If NFP comes out badly, it's a risk off scenario which also strengthens the dollar. Is this possible? I think it is. I'm on a mission.
Totally agree with this, risk on environment may produce mixed results, keeping powder very dry right now we on different missions though I think , actually I don't care, just going with the flow
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,285
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:22pm Apr 4, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting Rasi
What makes you think that Mr. Ben Bernanke would lie? Do you have any personal knowledge about him to question his integrity? What if what he said was true?

You support your claim based on a few statistics released recently. However, have you ever heard the phrase coined by the former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"?

45Condor noted in his recent post reminded people here that this is an election year in the US and; therefore one has to expect some "good news" with Government statistics....
Talking about food for thought is that i have time and time again proven that Ben Bernanke is the reason everyone playing with any USD denominated currencies like EURUSD, GBPUSD should watch out for...

You really shouldnt be using how GBP strengthened against the USD by 4% over the last 2 years to tell you a clear picture of the overall GBP strength...
the last 2 years has been quite a volatile movement after the 2008 economic crisis in US... its obvious that US would underperform agains the GBP for a couple of years hence why you see GBP has strengthened against the Dollar...
But if you look over the last couple years... UK economy HASNT grown... its been pretty stagnant with as little growth in GDP as 0.1% quarterly...
while the US though suffering from -5% or so in GDP after 2008 crisis, its only logical that they are starting to recover and recoving fast back into GROWTH... of what like 1% to 1.5%?? im just guessing the figures but i believe they are close to what i think/perceive... imagine how ugly it would make UK look when US is recovering so much faster while UK is so stagnant??

Wana see something amazing??
here a grabbed you a historic chart of GBPUSD, from when GBP became a floating exchange rate (changed to floating exchange rate since Jan 1974, but GBP was at a fixed rate of 3.5 before the change)... GBP has actually been becoming weaker and weaker against the dollar...
the DOLLAR IS actually strengthening against the POUND for OVER 30 years my friend... reason for the weakness of the GBP against the dollar over 30 years is partly to blame on the fact that the UK before floating exchange rate has been keeping GBP too strong/overpriced, as soon as demand and supply kicks in the GBP currency, it loses it shine... GBP has been kept too strong for the world to appreciate it...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png Size: 111 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,286
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:28pm Apr 4, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting smikester
You could equally say it weakened by x per cent in the last 5 years? You just picked a low for your comment?
No, I picked the last two years because it is generally accepted that the US economy started recovering in the last two years (post Lehman Brothers). Also the last three months' performance to test the theory that US is doing much better in recent times.
  • #306,287
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:30pm Apr 4, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting smikester
You could equally say it weakened by x per cent in the last 5 years? You just picked a low for your comment?
read my latest post to him, very hard for him to argue that the GBP is actually gaining against the dollar since its been falling for the last 30 years lol...
anyways to answer you about NFP...
You are correct... bad NFP would cause a streak of risk off... but this i on the long term prospect... you need to realise the market moves on short-er term news...
the immediate response when NFP comes out bad is speculative money "Get out of US", but slowly when US finds support people find USD attractive to come back... REAL money flow will be involved making the flow much more significant... REAL trumps Speculative money, though Speculative is what moves the market in the very very near term...

Also to watch out though... US is not the only one talking about QE here... UK is as well...
and as i understand its not a good sign when UK start to use QE as their strategy to remain out of recession... while US is still backed by world demand and commodities....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,288
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:34pm Apr 4, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting bguguen
i got mixed signals... neither bull nor bear... 5900-5850 consolidation zone... with a bearish bias
Lower time frame calling for an up move but dollar buying is still heavy.... im out for today... made enough but id seriously recommend caution for friday... NFP on easter holiday only US alone in the market, they can do some serious damage when they are alone...
I think we use different signals
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,289
  • Edited 5:07pm Apr 4, 2012 4:57pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting bguguen
Talking about food for thought is that i have time and time again proven that Ben Bernanke is the reason everyone playing with any USD denominated currencies like EURUSD, GBPUSD should watch out for...

You really shouldnt be using how GBP strengthened against the USD by 4% over the last 2 years to tell you a clear picture of the overall GBP strength...
the last 2 years has been quite a volatile movement after the 2008 economic crisis in US... its obvious that US would underperform agains the GBP for a couple of years hence why you see GBP has...
No, the point is that you are relying on recent US statistics to argue that because of those (and Ben Bernanke lies) USD should strengthen against the GBP. My point is that the recent relative performance of both currencies show otherwise. After all, one cannot buck the market.

Your observation that US suffered more after the financial crisis is also not true. It is a fact that UK's economy is far more reliant on the financial services industry than US's.

As for your long term chart, if you look at the history, you will see that both GBP and USD are in terminal decline against the other world currencies.

Do you know another thing? UK is the largest foreign investor in the US over a long period of time - so the decline in GBP against the USD shown in your chart is actually helping to increase the value of those investments many fold in GBP terms. Is it clever or what? So whenever US wins UK wins too.

See link here:

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc1/...tedStates.html

Regards,
  • #306,290
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:09pm Apr 4, 2012 5:09pm
Look out, look out, new (potential) trendlines about.
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  • #306,291
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:16pm Apr 4, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting Rasi
No, the point is that you are relying on recent US statistics to argue that because of those (and Ben Bernanke lies) USD should strengthen against the GBP. My point is that the recent relative performance of both currencies show otherwise. After all, one cannot buck the market.

Your observation that US suffered more after the financial crisis is also not true. It is a fact that UK's economy is far more reliant on the financial services industry than US's.

As for your long term chart, if you look at the history, you will see that both GBP...
Well the fact is that... a positive NFP means an increase in employment am i right or wrong... lets get this fact straight...
IF employment goes up... Consumer spending would go up as well as more people have income to buy shit in the US, and seeing US deficit reducing that should suggest US earned cash are being spent in US... basic economics would suggest increasein consumer consumpton would increase economic growth... if the money is not going abroad... its as simple as that...
Surely economic growth would mean businesses from abroad would ALSO want to move their money to US and invest now... hence the dollar strength... and the amazingly low interest rates... because low interest rates would attract foreign firm to move to US as its cheaper to Borrow money for investment purposes....

The reason why i say Ben Bernanke was lying about 2 weeks ago was the fact that He stated that the US economy "IS fragile but sustainable" this is quite the dovish sentiment... but NFP for the last 3 or so months have been going up and up... makes you wonder either the Data is manipulated or the Clown with the loud voice is lying... with NFP being so consistent with its increase, surely the clown IS the liar... Anyways Yesterday's FOMC Ben Bernanke ended his lies by telling the TRUTH the truth that US economy was recovering and not the "fragile but sustainable" economy which needed QE3... makes you wonder what makes a guy who was Hawkish along with the NFP for 2 months then dovish for a week and so HAWKISH yesterday... when NFP has been rising and rising and rising... well when i mean rising i meant better than forcasted...

I explained already why he had to LIE!!! remember QE2?? Feds basically printed money out of thin air why?? well Quantitative Easing, is explained as a Bond purchasing mechanism and Hell did the fed stack up their purchase of US treasury bonds during QE2... now when the US economy looks bad treasury yields falls why?? because treasury yields in US is regarded as a safe haven by government backing... NOW now... if US economy is recovering, we can see Yields RISING... but oh no... somebody whos holding those Bonds are pissed... ie.. the FED... as yields rise... they lose value on the bonds they bought, bought using thin air... so to prevent yields from rising too fast, they (the Fed Board) asks Ben to make up lies... hence the Dovish sentiment last week... and guess what!! it worked... yields drop after his little stunt!!!

I am trying to explain a bit of conspiracy here in this forum, though some of you dont believe without hard evidence... its very difficult to find these hard evidence but you can see how market is reacting strangely and these are quite the amazing hints you have to look at...

BTW realize how USDJPY correlates so much with US treasury bond yields?? well i beg to say that the BOJ were the pushign US yields up to weaken the Yen on the currency side... dont ask me why but thats their way of doing it...
Probably a cheaper way to move US yields up than to weaken YEN when theres so much demand of it around the world...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #306,292
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:00pm Apr 4, 2012 6:00pm
[quote=bguguen;5543378]

How do you know that those positive NFP statistics were the ultimate truth? Even if they are true, it is the quality of those jobs created that matters. For example, if you lose 10 Wall Street jobs that pay $100k each and create 50 High Street jobs that pay $10k each. NFP would say +40 but economically they will generate $500k less. Unfortunately, basic economics is not enough. We are talking about central banks and global finance.

Surely economic growth would mean businesses from abroad would ALSO want to move their money to US and invest now...

No, the clever investors tend to be ahead of the curve. Also it is very difficult for foreign firms to raise capital in the US - otherwise there would be many foreign companies listed on the Nasdaq (actually more foreign companies got listed on the London Stock Exchange in recent years).

Anyways Yesterday's FOMC Ben Bernanke ended his lies by telling the TRUTH the truth that US economy was recovering and not the "fragile but sustainable" economy which needed QE3...

Why do you think that the FOMC is telling the truth? And who owns the Fed?

I explained already why he had to LIE!!! remember QE2?? Feds basically printed money out of thin air why??

If the money was printed using thin air (I agree with you btw) and the FED purchased billions worth of bonds, does it matter if they drop in value by a few basis points?

BTW realize how USDJPY correlates so much with US treasury bond yields?? well i beg to say that the BOJ were the pushign US yields up to weaken the Yen on the currency side... dont ask me why but thats their way of doing it...

the Japanese have a different problem. They are forced to sell their US treasury holdings to weaken the Yen. This increased supply reduces the price of the treasuries and pushes the yields up.
  • #306,293
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:06pm Apr 4, 2012 6:06pm
make it simple

plan your trade, trade your plan

long or short ...... who cares ....
not euphoria follower
  • #306,294
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:18pm Apr 4, 2012 6:18pm
Here's an interesting chart.

Are we going to make another box of consolidation or are we going straight down?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd120405d1.gif Size: 42 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #306,295
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:22pm Apr 4, 2012 6:22pm
Quoting smikester
Here's an interesting chart.

Are we going to make another box of consolidation or are we going straight down?
Who has the bigger box(s), that is the question
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,296
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:28pm Apr 4, 2012 6:28pm
Quoting smikester
Here's an interesting chart.

Are we going to make another box of consolidation or are we going straight down?
If that's the 200sma on your chart, we are jammed between that and the weekly one which is very steep. If we consolidate for any considerable period, bulls may still have their day. My thoughts.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,297
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:30pm Apr 4, 2012 6:30pm
Quoting smikester
Here's an interesting chart.

Are we going to make another box of consolidation or are we going straight down?
According to your chart, there is MACD divergence which suggests that it will go down; but further confirmation is needed before one goes short.

My 2p worth.

Regards,
  • #306,298
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:36pm Apr 4, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Who has the bigger box(s), that is the question
I apologise, it is (A) question, not (the) question. Do not wish to be too presumptuous
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #306,299
  • Apr 4, 2012 7:06pm Apr 4, 2012 7:06pm
looking to get out of my long at 1.5926
  • #306,300
  • Apr 4, 2012 7:58pm Apr 4, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting PoundTrader
looking to get out of my long at 1.5926
been long since 1.5844 will try to close at 1.5926. then will sell 1.5926, s/l 1.5961, t/p 1.5891
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