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Daily Chart w/ 10sma

  • #1,021
  • Apr 1, 2012 7:04pm Apr 1, 2012 7:04pm
Hello mate
I see where you are going with SMA slope thing. I had same doubts but still trying to follow the system. UJ looks like a valid signal but slope is pointing down. For me biggest problem is stop loss, I trade it live with small account so I cannot set SL with 100 pips like I did with demo, it is to much I believe if price turn back more than 30 the entry point was bad.
I thought about SL and have idea about it. If you have a small acc to begin with maybe it is good to enter with micro and set it large then if price goes in your fav add bigger lot at BE point???
If you guys use BKG's system and found solid SL criteria or maybe know when to expect pullback even if signal is sound please share with us.
Got to put my head down is 2AM in here
Many Thanks
swing it!
  • #1,022
  • Apr 1, 2012 8:21pm Apr 1, 2012 8:21pm
Rest well, Tom.

I am certainly not urging anyone to do this, but one way to cut the size of the SL is to wait for the slope turn on the SMA 10 following a qualifying close across the line.

Not perfect, but may give you the confidence to go with a smaller, but adequate, SL.

I expect BKG with all his experience with this system would naturally say go for it as soon as you have a close across the 10, and this normally works, I think, because of taking entry down from major resistance or up from major support. That plus a sufficient SL seems to usually be a winner. And maybe there is a diagonal TL cross in there, too. That's ideal.

Forest
  • #1,023
  • Apr 2, 2012 5:37am Apr 2, 2012 5:37am
Quoting tomspin
Hello mate
I see where you are going with SMA slope thing. I had same doubts but still trying to follow the system. UJ looks like a valid signal but slope is pointing down. For me biggest problem is stop loss, I trade it live with small account so I cannot set SL with 100 pips like I did with demo, it is to much I believe if price turn back more than 30 the entry point was bad.
I thought about SL and have idea about it. If you have a small acc to begin with maybe it is good to enter with micro and set it large then if price goes in your fav add...
I don't understand your problem with SL size. You can adjust your position size up or down to accommodate the SL size needed for the trade and still keep you Risk % constant . Example: You have a $500 account and you are risking 1% per Trade-500 x 1% = 5$, so you have $5 to risk on this trade and the appropriate place for the SL is appox. 200 pips 5/200 =.0250 , so your position size is .02 a pip and your SL is where is should be for this trade. I am not talking down to anyone here, but just reading your post it didn't seem like you knew how to do this.
Always Learning
  • #1,024
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:03am Apr 2, 2012 6:03am
Quoting JayTrader
I don't understand your problem with SL size. You can adjust your position size up or down to accommodate the SL size needed for the trade and still keep you Risk % constant . Example: You have a $500 account and you are risking 1% per Trade-500 x 1% = 5$, so you have $5 to risk on this trade and the appropriate place for the SL is appox. 200 pips 5/200 =.0250 , so your position size is .02 a pip and your SL is where is should be for this trade. I am not talking down to anyone here, but just reading your post it didn't seem like you knew how...
Hey Jay thanks for your reply
I do understand 1% and now thanks to you I understand I need to add some funds to my acc
Maybe I didn't explain everything, 200 pip SL imo mean at least 600 pip move until TP. 3:1 is a must for me or trade does not matter
Such a move happend only with JPY crosses recently, i.e. for Aussie it took almost a month to cover 400 pips from that res @ 1,0748
I know it is a mid/long term system and I am very happy about it, just trying to minimise risk and looking for better ways to enter the trade
I really appreciate your comments
Thanks again
swing it!
  • #1,025
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:13am Apr 2, 2012 6:13am
Quoting tomspin
Hey Jay thanks for your reply
I do understand 1% and now thanks to you I understand I need to add some funds to my acc
Maybe I didn't explain everything, 200 pip SL imo mean at least 600 pip move until TP. 3:1 is a must for me or trade does not matter
Such a move happend only with JPY crosses recently, i.e. for Aussie it took almost a month to cover 400 pips from that res @ 1,0748
I know it is a mid/long term system and I am very happy about it, just trying to minimise risk and looking for better ways to enter the trade
I really appreciate your...
Post 149 or make your own version of it.
Always Learning
  • #1,026
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:28am Apr 2, 2012 6:28am
Hi Forexnubie,
Here's something for you to check out

CHF/JPY
When you enter a trade - you should always make sure that you are entering on strength!
i.e. the trace on the timeframe below that which you are trading is in the same direction as your intended trade (your trading candle is formed by the 6 related 4hr candles)

AUD/CAD
A trend consisting of a number of rallies and retraces is best left to the more experienced trader, let him pick the bottom reversal.
Less experienced traders should trade in the direction of the trend, in this case shorts.

Hope this helps
Peter
  • #1,027
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:57am Apr 2, 2012 7:57am
Hi Peter,

Thank you so much for your reply. I appreciate it and it is very useful.

Buying on strength is a good point. No one has explained it to me so well.

For example, if the 10 sma daily close is bullish and in smaller time frame like 4 hour, if 4 out of 6 candles are decisively bullish, then you call it buying into strength.

If those smaller time frame candles are all over, then, you hesitate and the signal is not so strong.

Am I right?

thanks, once again, and are there any other parameters you would avoid a trade if present?

thanks
  • #1,028
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:37am Apr 2, 2012 8:37am
Quoting bkg102665
Use a daily chart with most any pair you like to trade.

Put a 10sma on the chart (red on my charts)

Always know where support and resistance levels are(aqua on my charts)because these are always good take profit areas and entry areas

I will only take shorts when price is at resistance level and then closes below the 10sma

I will only take longs when price is at support and then closes above the 10sma
Awesome! A simple trading system.
It is good for working men like me.
Care to share, how long you have traded 10SMA?
Thank you for your time.
Trade As A Sniper
  • #1,029
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:47am Apr 2, 2012 8:47am
Hi guys, I have the same problem with the SL size. For small accounts, there are 2 options I see:

a) Fit your size position to the Risk % that you can manage (what Jay have explained)

b) Trading the BKG system on a lower Time Frame. I have been trying it on 4H charts with good results. You can use half SL than the Daily ones, but I have to warn you that there will be more failed trades.

Just my 2 cents.

Greg.
  • #1,030
  • Apr 2, 2012 3:12pm Apr 2, 2012 3:12pm
The EURCAD seems to be giving a Sell Signal at the end of the day.

Greg.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD.png Size: 24 KB
  • #1,031
  • Apr 2, 2012 3:54pm Apr 2, 2012 3:54pm
Quoting gregofx
The EURCAD seems to be giving a Sell Signal at the end of the day.

Greg.
Thanks Greg, I don't often check this one. I would have missed it. Nice catch.

Really nice bounce off the diagonal TL down, too.

Forest
  • #1,032
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:04pm Apr 2, 2012 6:04pm
I have spotted something better Greg
GBP/CAD less likely to do pullback(well I quess I see what I want) but more important has more pips in the way down
Good luck guys
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad.gif Size: 23 KB
swing it!
  • #1,033
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:04pm Apr 2, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting tomspin
I have spotted something better Greg
GBP/CAD less likely to do pullback(well I quess I see what I want) but more important has more pips in the way down
Good luck guys
Nice! A very huge bearish engulfing!
I short U-J for same reason.
Trade As A Sniper
  • #1,034
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:19am Apr 3, 2012 7:19am
Hi forexnubie,
1st let me say that I do not wish to distract from this very good thread (sorry bkg102665) - but to answer your questions....

If you understand Multiple timeframe analysis - then you have a good understanding as to the structure of the market, and will have a good idea of what to expect on your trading timeframe

Regarding your questions - On the close of the candle on the daily chart, this candle is formed by the open,close and the highest hi and the lowest lo of the last 6 candles on the 4 hr chart, all the other his and lows are filtered out.
"4 out of 6 candles bullish, then you call this buying into strength"
Not necessarily, if the last candle is a reversal candle, candles are showing weakness, or if candles are rolling over etc - this would not be a show of strength

I would suggest you visit Stephen Bigalows site, or buy his latest book on candlesticks - he is a trader, not a sales person - he tells it as it is warts and all, and no fluff

Regarding your other question on what parameters would suggest not taking a trade.....
You only make money when price is trending or if you enter at the start of a trend
So do not take a trade if the market is trading sideways i.e. consolidating (the ma will be flattish).
Any trade trade taken is likely to be limited by the support/resistance of the price consolidation, or most likely dip back thro the ma for a loss
etc, etc

This thread is really good
Your aim is not to change the system - but to try to figure out how to limit the number of "false" signals or weak signals
Every losing trade that you do not take - means that your profitable trades are yours and not used to replace the money lost on losers

Multiple timeframes are worth spending some time on to understand how the various timeframes affect each other

Personally I do not use the ma - I use another indicator setup based on momentum and volatility (not for discussion)
But this ma system is good AND its simple - stick with it

Good luck with your research
Peter
  • #1,035
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:38am Apr 3, 2012 7:38am
Thank you Lizpet for taking efforts to reply. I appreciate it.

Let us keep posting trade set ups and make this a very profitable forum.

thanks
  • #1,036
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:45am Apr 3, 2012 7:45am
Somebody please give this guy a vouch!
Magnificent post Peter
Thanks!
swing it!
  • #1,037
  • Apr 3, 2012 8:23am Apr 3, 2012 8:23am
Taking another whack at the EURJPY short, got stopped out on the same trade at the open on Sunday night. Aiming for a 2.5:1 RR, using a 130pip stop, just entered at 109.65
  • #1,038
  • Apr 3, 2012 10:09am Apr 3, 2012 10:09am
U-J is seen staying "no where" after Asia and Europe sessions.
Will US session move it down?

Peter, would you open a thread to discuss your trading system?
I am delighted to join.
Trade As A Sniper
  • #1,039
  • Apr 3, 2012 2:20pm Apr 3, 2012 2:20pm
SL moved to BE.

50 Pips more to close half of the position and let the other half run free.

Greg.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD.png Size: 32 KB
  • #1,040
  • Apr 3, 2012 2:44pm Apr 3, 2012 2:44pm
EURUSD will be giving a Sell Signal at the end of the day.

What I like:
- Break of short-term Trend Line (gray dotted TL)
- Sell in the direction of long-term Trend Line (aqua TL down)
- Bounce at previous week highs

What I don't like:
- There is not much room between price and mid-term Trend Line (aqua TL up). If the TL rejects the price, at least we will have the SL at BE.

What do you think guys??

Greg.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 33 KB
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