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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #305,641
  • Mar 30, 2012 3:29pm Mar 30, 2012 3:29pm
Quoting _BBKing_
uff i have a different idea about this but it is due to purely meaning of the words:
a breakout is a breakout. means that a price broke up/down of a level where previously did not 1-2-1000 times.
so, by definition it can't be false, otherwise it would not exist.
then i agree, there are kind of brekout where price simply break and go in that direction without turning back, even 15pips. and there are breakouts which are in strong levels and in strong pressure areas, so happens a lot of taking profits, stop loss, stop orders, new orders etc... so...
Yes the 2nd scenerio. A breakout is a breakout for sure so technically speaking a false breakout cannot exist, but in the context of trading, people trade breakout with the intention of taking profit at next support/resistance/fib, so when price suddenly reverses against them after the breakout, it is termed "false" because price did not continue in the same direction as expected.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #305,642
  • Mar 30, 2012 3:46pm Mar 30, 2012 3:46pm
Quoting Fudomyo
lol... that's true. Remember when we used to have a couple of hundred people on this thread?

After 3 days of sideways chop and it was like a bar brawl in here.

This week we had some very nice moves around this time so I stayed up to see if we'd get the move late NY session, guess not.

There is the move.....nice 30 pip move up......will it hold will it hold......

go nAVIN go!!!!!!!
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #305,643
  • Mar 30, 2012 3:46pm Mar 30, 2012 3:46pm
Quoting UbuFamily
Hai smike, looking at your sentence here made me think..Isn't it damn easy for people to cheat if that is the case??


Cheers
O'shea
That is definitely fake. I mean who would aim for three pips with a 25 pip stop loss? (fifth item down). Definitely fake.
Gone to a better place
  • #305,644
  • Mar 30, 2012 3:55pm Mar 30, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting Faller
What the hell? To have success in trading means that you do not have to be correct about price direction?????? WTF???? So I can be wrong and still make money?

This thread is getting bizarre!!!!

Maybe I am drunk or tired or both or none - but there have been some F'd up comments posted in here lately.

Faller.
Attached Image
Gone to a better place
  • #305,645
  • Mar 30, 2012 4:07pm Mar 30, 2012 4:07pm
craziest day closing i ever seen. price bounced like an insane.
i agree with fxfisherman on a possible re-visit into 1.59 area.
problem is about when and so... from where.
but definetly price will print again into 1.59 maybe something like 5930 5900 or more depends on action.


today market did a great thing in GU i bet this have been very expensive. next week a lot of money will be called back... be aware of traps!

have a good week end you all and my advice... take some damn relax!!!! everybody!!! me first..
byebye
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #305,646
  • Mar 30, 2012 4:12pm Mar 30, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting _BBKing_
craziest day closing i ever seen. price bounced like an insane.
i agree with fxfisherman on a possible re-visit into 1.59 area.
problem is about when and so... from where.
but definetly price will print again into 1.59 maybe something like 5930 5900 or more depends on action.


today market did a great thing in GU i bet this have been very expensive. next week a lot of money will be called back... be aware of traps!

have a good week end you all and my advice... take some damn relax!!!! everybody!!! me first..
byebye
it doesnt have to..infact the body of the monthly is almost like a bullish pin..and if u draw trendlines on monthly they show act as a barrier..keeping it up

if it hit 1.59 i will worry about my target

a close of 1.6 above needed

edit:- look at last month high and look at where price is now..its an improved if monthly close above 1.6..i consider this quite progressive
  • #305,647
  • Edited 4:33pm Mar 30, 2012 4:13pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting Faller
There is the move.....nice 30 pip move up......will it hold will it hold......

go nAVIN go!!!!!!!


there is a pin on usd index which is bullish..so it could be interesting monday
  • #305,648
  • Mar 30, 2012 4:52pm Mar 30, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting smikester
Attachment

Every picture tells a story

And remember every picture can be taken out of context.......

Good weekend to everyone.

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #305,649
  • Mar 30, 2012 5:06pm Mar 30, 2012 5:06pm
Hi,

Price travelled 69% of it's 20 month average in March, 79% of it's 20 week atr this last week and 89% of it's 20 day atr on Friday.

Monthly
The Monthly candle closes as a bullish bodied hammer.It is the 3rd consecutive monthly rise off the last LL on this t/f and the candle closed above the steepest descending monthly trend line. This t/f is in something of a triangle/wedgy thingy and is currently in an opa (overall price action) range.

Weekly
The Weekly candle closes bullishly and is the 3rd consecutive bullish candle on this t/f. Although not a fractal swing yet at that high it will be a 2nd HH when it does develop and this Weekly candle close closed above the descending Weekly and Daily trend lines. The t/f is in something of a gerneral opa (overall price action) uptrend.

Daily
Friday's daily candle closed bullishly and was an upside follow thru on Thursday's Bullish engulfing Daily candle...to make 2 consecutive bullish candles on this t/f. which is in something of a classic opa (overall price action) uptrend see-ing now 3 x HL's and 2 x HH's although the Friday high is not a fractal swing yet-when one does develop at that Hi or higher it will be a 2nd HH swing on this t/f.

4Hr
This t/f is in something of a general opa uptrend. The Weekly Lo saw a new ascending trend line established on this t/f and Wednesday and Thursday saw tests of it and both timed it held to see price bounce up. 3 consecutive HL's now on this t/f and a HH at Friday's / The weekly Hi (6035.)

G/L
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Mthly.jpg Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: wkly.jpg Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily.jpg Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.jpg Size: 124 KB
ex member
  • #305,650
  • Mar 30, 2012 5:18pm Mar 30, 2012 5:18pm
Looking to the immediate upside - New Monthly, Weekly and Monday's Daily Pivots are included in analysis below:

6023-36 prev minor 4hr/1hr sw hi zone incl 6030= 85.4% 6165-5234
6048 Daily R1 @/around
6075-92 prev Daily sw hi zone incl 6087= 61.8% 6617-5234 and Daily R2 @/around
6097 Weekly R1 @/around
6103-15-30 prev Daily sw hi zone
6136-65 prev Wkly/Daily sw hi zone incl 6163= 76.4% 6454-5234
6163 Monthly R1 @/around
6167 61.8% 6746-5234
6177 Daily R3 @/around
6184 Weekly R2 @/around
6240-80 prev minor Daily sw lo zone (non immed) incl 6267 = Daily R4 @/around, and 6275= 85.4% 6454-5234
6289 76.4% 6617-5234
6317 Monthly R2 @/around
6360-70 descending Weekly t/line coming thru on present Daily candle
6388 76.4% 6746-5234
6413 85.4% 6617-5234
6419-53 prev Daily sw hi zone incl 6420=Weekly R3 @/around
6524 85.4% 6746-5234
6550-73 prev Daily sw hi zone
[ 6575-85 descending monthly trend line coming thru on present daily candle
[ 6580-6617 prev Wkly/Daily sw hi zone

G/L
ex member
  • #305,651
  • Mar 30, 2012 6:28pm Mar 30, 2012 6:28pm
Quoting Red Alert
Wow... 3-4 times bigger, i like this .....with your method, you will get more pips from both side sell and buy, the key is momentum when you will close these positions one by one......
I will (likely) close all the buys at one time, then all the sells at another time.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #305,652
  • Edited 9:29pm Mar 31, 2012 12:59am | Edited 9:29pm
Weekly view: assuming that 1.6000 will hold as support, next hurdle will likely at around 6150. last rejection there was on Oct 2011.
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: week-gu-3103b.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #305,653
  • Mar 31, 2012 1:16am Mar 31, 2012 1:16am
Quoting Forexia
There is only ONE situation in which Ichimoku works really well. That is if the market is trending very strongly, no whipshaws, no retracing back and forth; the market is really determined to go one direction and one direction only. That's when Ichimoku will yield you lots of pips.

In this post-financial crisis ranging market, I agree Ichimoku doesn't work well. I use it mainly to confirm market direction.
Mate, i've been using ichi for years and imho what ichi does is actually simplify your work on drawing the s&r level. Actually, all the tools out there is as good as the user who uses them. If you're know how to use the tools, even a simple MA can be very good in deciding positions in the market, if you know what i mean..
  • #305,654
  • Mar 31, 2012 1:19am Mar 31, 2012 1:19am
Quoting gsantri
Weekly view: assuming that 1.6000 will hold as support, next hurdle will likely at 6150. that also 76.4 fib of 4224-6746 swing. last rejection there was on Oct 2011.
.
just beware on the swissy level atm.. currently swissy is testing a psychological support at 0.9000.. if that support breaks, we might see more upside like what you said, but if that support does hold, and we see rejection, we might never be in this territory again.. imho..
  • #305,655
  • Mar 31, 2012 2:01am Mar 31, 2012 2:01am
Quoting A-speculator
just beware on the swissy level atm.. currently swissy is testing a psychological support at 0.9000.. if that support breaks, we might see more upside like what you said, but if that support does hold, and we see rejection, we might never be in this territory again.. imho..
Hello.. was trying to pointed out the next hurdle which is only 150p away actually.
a weekly view with new high and last 3 candles on the chart I only see an up-move so far

Have a good weekend.
  • #305,656
  • Mar 31, 2012 2:19am Mar 31, 2012 2:19am
Quoting gsantri
Hello.. was trying to pointed out the next hurdle which is only 150p away actually.
a weekly view with new high and last 3 candles on the chart I only see an up-move so far

Have a good weekend.
yups, that might holds true. I'm saying just beware on the current overall market level. Though it's still has not confirms yet, but the swissy is on a cluster support of both psychological and technical levels and fiber is very close in breaking its uptrend channel.

Yes, anything can happen in the market but at this level from the overall market sentiment, i should say that both the bears and the bulls have to take extra precautions to avoid being the pigs in the market..

Personally, i stay on sidelines on cable and currently in the position of shorting the aussie, kiwi and fiber.. What i'm saying is, if anyone thinking to trade cable, with all the movement from last two weeks, it has been very volatile and if one doesn't take extra precautionary method one might end up with a loss.. Market can be deceiving, you know..

have a great weekend to you too..
  • #305,657
  • Mar 31, 2012 3:44am Mar 31, 2012 3:44am
Quoting A-speculator
yups, that might holds true. I'm saying just beware on the current overall market level. Though it's still has not confirms yet, but the swissy is on a cluster support of both psychological and technical levels and fiber is very close in breaking its uptrend channel.

Yes, anything can happen in the market but at this level from the overall market sentiment, i should say that both the bears and the bulls have to take extra precautions to avoid being the pigs in the market..

Personally, i stay on sidelines on cable and currently in the position...
Thanks for your concern.
to be honest, i'm not rely too much on the correlations lately. you know each country has their own problems.
I'll stick to technical on each pair, breakdown a weekly chart to H4 and M15. on lower TF I try to follow any tradeable ranges. But when all TFs lined up it convinced me more on the trades.
I also watch equities to see market sentiment in each session.
  • #305,658
  • Mar 31, 2012 4:15am Mar 31, 2012 4:15am
Quoting Fudomyo
With DXY, there are times when it's quite useful trading Cable. (like earlier when we had the sharp PB off of support) Even though it's a weighted average, larger price moves reverberate through the basket of currencies.
GBP with a GDP of between 1/4 and 1/5 of the EU is weighted at about 1/5th of Euro. I don't see the problem. It's just cable is more volatile than Euro. Why is that? would be a good question.
Gone to a better place
  • #305,659
  • Mar 31, 2012 4:41am Mar 31, 2012 4:41am
Quoting smikester
GBP with a GDP of between 1/4 and 1/5 of the EU is weighted at about 1/5th of Euro. I don't see the problem. It's just cable is more volatile than Euro. Why is that? would be a good question.
The City
  • #305,660
  • Mar 31, 2012 7:22am Mar 31, 2012 7:22am
Quoting gsantri
Thanks for your concern.
to be honest, i'm not rely too much on the correlations lately. you know each country has their own problems.
I'll stick to technical on each pair, breakdown a weekly chart to H4 and M15. on lower TF I try to follow any tradeable ranges. But when all TFs lined up it convinced me more on the trades.
I also watch equities to see market sentiment in each session.
Long time no see mate... nice to know you back again here....
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