Cable Update (GBPUSD)

yes nice push up!
i didn't expect this much so quick
indeed i moved stop @be.
same is doing EU. possible reaction also in AU which today swallowed a lot of supports.

let's see, day still not ended....

yeah ..look at the monthly candle (this month) we broke the low of the previous month..yet attempted the top right after what does this say about strength?

only figure wasnt to good but this is a sign as redbeben has indicated

hi again

nice development on GU now.

+30 pips already on GU and +34 pips on USD CHF

might cover some a bit higher on GU aroud the circled areas on the M15 chart

so.as mentioned we have a flat line @ 1.5895-1.5900 area and we can see the spikes on CS(black line) pointing the same R area and then the next one is 1.5908-09 which....well well is the same flat blue line on H1

then we have 1.5916 and a better R area @ 1.5935

again,as in last night move,I have to stress about the time lapsed till all crosses are made

remember I said ''first we go up and down in order to have KS and TS crossed'' we need the cross first then the kumo breakout then we aim for the fibo levels or other TP's depending on experience and other TFS's

I'll keep updating the charts on this trade

1.5? Mate, don't get overexcited by this bearish pressure.. we're not even below 5600 yet.. lol..

Anyway, that's sure a very long-term trade mate.. if we'll get there, price will show the path..

Got to go to bed.. already late night here..

All the best mate. See u later..

would be good to see monthly crashing the 1.6000 line before the end.
still very possible.
only 150 pips above here.
if happens, i would like to see what will stop this thing!

big problem will be a monthly closing around here.

2 days left = a lot of time! mostly if we hold these levels around 5850 until price will line up everything around!!

Well in case you didnt see the GBP has been pretty much trading in a tight range for the last 3 months so it shouldnt come as a surprise if my sentiment hasnt changed considering how the pairs reacting with such bad news in UK and nothing but good news coming out from US for the last few months...
something big's about to happen and i dont know when its gona happen... just need the correct timing and fundamentals as catalyst for this big move to happen...

For the time being...
Long Term - Bear
Short Term - Neutral (taking full advantage trading the range... you'd be surprised if i told you i was also trading longs to ofset the shorts i have... but only as a short offset)

would like to show this chart. not for the position, since i will probably close in few minutes before leaving, but to show what i had for reasons to search longs everywhere into 1.58 area.

maybe this jump up off the 5850 is simply profits taking at end of the day and tomorrow price tank into 1.57 area.
or we bottomed here and price will not visit again 5850 for next 2 months.
who knows?!
time will tell!

Hi redbeben

Thanks for your good work. I'm still learning Ichimoku , just got a question: does a flat line(KS or TS)means price will consolidate for some time?

regards

Hi there,

first thing first is that in my point of view a consolidation means that price will keep one level/range for a while before continuation of trend.

in the current move a consolidation would mean that price will bounce up and down till it will resume downtrend.

so,this one I don't see it as a consolidation but as a separate move and try not to think about what consolidation means.



now for the flat lines....you really should read the basics of ichi to understand what the lines mean and how they act in time.
a flat line (most the KS-blue one) will always attract the price as a magnet.
keep in mind that some if not most of the banks use ichi for the trades so what they see you see as well.

some blue lines attract the price some don't
here comes the tricky part in the cloud interpretation.

also please think that this kind of ichi use is COUNTERTREND and not normal ichi use

you could easily jump in on all pullbacks to the flat lines on all time frames if you correlate the entries with other TFS's and other indies or fundies.

For example here on the long GU opened @ the fibo level which is more or less correlated with the kumo top on H4 it was a good entry.


then in order to see if the price will reach the flat lines(as it is tricky as well) you need to apply fibos on the whole move and wait for some other confirmations

basically you need many many eyes to spot all flat lines on all TFS's and to syncronise them all


if you cannot pay attention to the rest of the picture(for example you see one flat line on M15.now you have to see if that flat line has the same level with another ichi part on a higher TFS ) just stick to the classic ichi following the trend and the perfect crosses.

please have a look at the attached chart with a perfect sell signal according to the classic ichi rules on M5



we have a bear cross under price,price under bearish kumo and CS (black line) is under the price and kumo at the time of the cross(remember CS is 26 candles shifted in the past)

this was a killer entry even if stochs and RSI were telling me the move down is kind of over.

on this kind of perfect signals you can jump in eyes closed as nothing will stop the move

on the other hand,on M1 you could have harvested 15 pips more on a countertrend move using the flat line attraction and offcourse using fibo levels or S levels for entry.



then again you will see in chart no 3 that on M5 on all the flat line occasions we had decent pullbaks to them,pullbaks that you could have harvested easily with a good eye and M1 entries.
still,on the same chart I point out the move heading up (as you saw my TP's are above 1.5900) but on chart no 4 on M1 you can see the pullback using same technique





at the end of the day it depends on the amount of time you dedicate to trading and amount of stress as in this case on M5 you have for example a long entry @ 1.5850 TP 1.5935 meaning 80 pips

or you could be greedy and on the same move if you countertrend all the small moves back you would get at least double the pips.


if you need more info about all this just let me know and I can give you some books with ichi basics and some charts and explanations I made on my own to cover the rest what's not covered by the books

GU long update

as mentioned and pointed out from the first chart here we go

at this moment we are 6 pips away from first TP, the circled flat blue line

as plotted in the first chart the move is up down and it's kind of....well what I draw there

RSI now is above 50 level meaning continuation to at least the target

on the other hand on fast stochs we see an imminent overbought condition and on ichi we see an imminent cross (50% confirmation of up move) which means we will have another pullback in order to gain strenght to pierce the kumo cloud in the designated area.

so,I reckon a 1.5902(38.2% fibo and flat line) -5915 area should hold for now and bring retracement afterwards to some lower levels before continuing the move up

remember that same cross must happen on all TFS's and this is the reason price goes up and down.

too late came my post first TP touched already and gained me 45 pips

closed 1/3 of trade

now as we touched a fibo and flat line I expect a rejection to a lower level if we don't have enough steam to go now to 1.5902-5915

have a look at the countertrend that could form now

when we hit the above area which is a fibo level or the flat line area and if we will have a future kumo with a flat base and a flat line to attract the price we're clear to short as all the rest of the indies are overbought

wow great explanation!
thumbs up!

btw... well said about consolidations! i think i have a different meaning of this term: today's move to 5850 was a consolidation of it as demand level. price took care about the 5750, then about the 5800 and now the 5850. whole these lines seen in the main picture are very important to be confirmed in one side or the other, and they shown strong orders coming and stopping V turn the down move every time. ok, you know, i'm a lot biased in more up at least near 6130 soon, so i could be wrong in this interpretetion. but actually price is doing exactly (pip more pip less) what i have in a chart posted 2 weeks ago.

Hi, thanks a lot, you are so nice. I do need to study hard on it. I just send you a private message, please check it.

btw, I saw a bullish cross on weely and mthly chart, and dly, what's your view in longer time?

Hi!

Nice explanation redbeben. And very accurate until this moment!
Btw, this is my first post. I've been following this thread the last 3 months and learned a lot of things and decided to participate a little.

well if you read my previous posts for the past 2 days you will see that I explained my long term view over there

but I will post a chart now just to see exactly where I look at

so we have the rejection @ 1.3502 and a flat kumo and flat blue line attracting the price.

price went very close to that level(it is a 50% on fibo as well) but was tanked by the recession and all the bad news so we did not have the chance to touch that level.
in this view I still wait to test that one which is 1.7333(Navin knows it already ) but for that we need to break odf the level determined by the 3 cirled areas

remember the CS line ( black one)spikes are S and R areas.

as well that level is same one as the kumo bottom and it is @ 1.65XX

as soon as we pass that line we head up to the 1.7333 in a couple of days as there is no other R to stop the rocket.

a decent pullback would be expected @ 1.7333 as we know that the top or bottom of Kumo means S or R

as well that one is 50% fibo and lately GU likes to bounce of this level

if that one is crossed then 61.8% fibo is next target which by the way is another spike in CS which I circled as well but this one is gonna be a weak rejection followed by the top @ 2.XX

On the weekly chart you already lost the train as price already touched the flat line and top of kumo.we do have a bull cross as you mention but I'd rather wait to jump in either lower either if a weekly candle closes above the kumo

if you watch closely, on this up move the price went to 50% fibo (1.6744 to 1.5229) which is the top of the kumo as well and price was rejected strongly

so next level to be touched now on weekly is 1.6159 or 61.8% fibo

it all depends on the TFS you work on

if you work on a higher tfs like monthly you get the market the chance to screw you as a war might start tmr and screw economies or a plague or a tsunami.....so you might have to wait for years untill you reach your target


if you work on smaller TFS you will have to work harder but you will have the money in an instance....it all depends on you

I preffer to jump in and out like a ninja and protect the profits at all costs so I trade on M1-H4 sometimes with confirmations from daily or weekly if I stay for some hundreds of pips in a move.

very very helpful . I'v sent my email to you. Thanks again.

ok

last post for tonight as I really am tired and my eyes not that sharp anymore from all TFS's and all pairs.

M5 before and with the evolution just to point out again the pattern with flat lines and fibos and the rest

in the first chart we see the vision of what will happen as I pointed out the circled flat line in the past as a possible bounce area and the 23.6% fibo and in that post I said that if we will have flat blue line and cloud we can jump in as all indies are overbought

in a short time we had the flat lines and price bounced from that flat line in the past as you will see in the updated version of the chart



and here is the updated one with 15 pips profit on the counter move already and more to come as I still expect it to go to the fibo levels as first TP 50% and second @ 61.8 %



on this one the TP is tricky as the fibos don#t line up with neither of the kumo base nor the flat line so a marge of 1.5875-1.5880 would be great as TP 1 and 1.5865 for second TP as this one is the 61.8% fibo and more or less another flat line in the past

and the very last charts are from USD CHF where you can see that the future can be predicted

first chart is the one before the move where I plotted the future move and put the targets



and here is the one after development and you can see that the shape of the cloud drawn by me is similar,the indies drawn were similar

the only diff is that I expected a stronger bounce from the 50% level ...otherwise both TP1 on 50% level and 61.8% TP2 were reached






pipwise for today some 280 so far + 30 opened on GU now and 5 on EUR GBP

we'll see tmr what brings and if we'll have same ranging market or trending so I can post other charts for the classic version of ichi

U see what I see? I drew the blue resistance line last night..

(this is not a CALL. remember I'm a scalper so this is a scalper point of view)



u can see it as resistance turn support OR a bounce from resistance line.

G/L

which blue line? there are 4 of them.

Thanks for showing your GU chart's analysis, it is impressing...
I see u are in the same train with navin to north huh...that's alright...maybe not for bguguen..hahaha...anyway, I just wanted to share some of my views here (I am not correcting u okay). About the fibonacci u drew on your GU chart. U do know right the fibonacci only works on a trending market (bull/bear). Thus, it is not working on a flat market. So my question is, how much confidence do u have in your market trending which is u assumed it to be bullish now right? ( based on your chart)

Cheers buddy