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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #305,021
  • Mar 27, 2012 8:24am Mar 27, 2012 8:24am
wake TF up
  • #305,022
  • Mar 27, 2012 8:39am Mar 27, 2012 8:39am
Quoting redbeben
as for the last post for today I'll attach the development of M5 short from start to TP

clean entry,clean exit,predictable move and nice profit.this kind of moves you can find in ranging market/consolidation and if you spot one like this in time you get a min of 30 pips.this one brought so far 40 pips.

the rest is up to the MM of each trader.

now under 5946-5927 area we have freefall to 1.5860 as our TP and loading longs area.

so...I'll eyeball 5927 as that one is the last outpost for the bulls(some buyers are there and SL's just under)...
hello,
i agree a lot of things you say in your plan.
except one:
you should take in consideration the 5915 line which actually it is DP.
i don't expect to see price going below it this week.
this also doesn't mean to go blindly long near that line, but IMO, going short now, completely counter this strong push up near monthly recent highs is very risky.
problem is that there are a lot of lines and fibos and many xmas trees near this 6000

BUT

IF price will cross up there is really few things that let me feel safe to keep a short position open, since price could simply burn up and up and up until week ending time, and turn down just some 20 pips like it is doing since monday... i saw this scenario so many times in the past and mostly in GU. while writing price is still here 5990: where is supply? if was supply in this are, price should be already near 5900 to let me think is better look for shorts. and GJ roaring up can trail GU like nothing into 60 area. everything against GBP is in tank mode. about usd is only a matter of time.

so: i think is better wait patiently a good entry long, or wait a great and CLEAR entry short. which actually still not happening.

just my idea.
i hope everyone will be fine
good luck
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #305,023
  • Mar 27, 2012 8:44am Mar 27, 2012 8:44am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello,
i agree a lot of things you say in your plan.
except one:
you should take in consideration the 5915 line which actually it is DP.
i don't expect to see price going below it this week.
this also doesn't mean to go blindly long near that line, but IMO, going short now, completely counter this strong push up near monthly recent highs is very risky.
problem is that there are a lot of lines and fibos and many xmas trees near this 6000

BUT

IF price will cross up there is really few things that let...
i think every single word you said is true.. that is why atm i'm staying with the aussie and kiwi. if my calculation is right, cable will only tank or at least shows the bearish signs no early than thursday where price squared time (please keep in mind that I'm new to time factoring)..
  • #305,024
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:21am Mar 27, 2012 9:21am
Looks like it's a bull trap
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #305,025
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:32am Mar 27, 2012 9:32am
Keeps knocking on the door of 6000.

@ / above here:

5986/89 2 x fibs incl 50% 6746-5234
5999 85.4% 6130-5234
6005 Weekly R2 @/around
6036 Daily R1 @/around
6030 85.4% 6165-5234
6059 Monthly R1 @/around
6075-92 prev Dly sw hi zone incl 6086=Daily R2 @/around, 6087 = 61.8% 6617-5234, and 6088 = Weekly R3 @/around
6103-15-30 prev Dly/4hr sw hi zone
6136-65 prev Wkly/Dly sw hi zone incl 6163 = 76.4% 6454-5234
6167 61.8% 6746-5234
6198 Monthly R2 and Daily R3 @/around
6240-80 prev minor Daily sw lo zone (non immed) with 6275 = 85.4% 6454-5234
6289 76.4% 6617-5234
6360-70 descending Weekly t/line coming thru on present Daily candle
6388 76.4% 6746-5234
6406 Monthly R3 @/around
6413 85.4% 6617-5234
6419-53 prev Dly sw hi zone
6524 85.4% 6746-5234

If anyone looking at the 5min chart didn't trade the close of the candle shown at the area shown on 1hr chart shown they need whipping - Lol ! amongst other things in bullishly engulfed the previous 15 on that t/f

G/L
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1345 1hr pot supp zone.jpg Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: z.jpg Size: 61 KB
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  • #305,026
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:38am Mar 27, 2012 9:38am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello,
i agree a lot of things you say in your plan.
except one:
you should take in consideration the 5915 line which actually it is DP.
i don't expect to see price going below it this week.
this also doesn't mean to go blindly long near that line, but IMO, going short now, completely counter this strong push up near monthly recent highs is very risky.
problem is that there are a lot of lines and fibos and many xmas trees near this 6000

BUT

IF price will cross up there is really few things...

Hi there BB

well....I don't even look at the pivots as it would be too much info in my head so I preffer to stick to what I know which is charts on ichi,past experience and raw info about buyers and sellers (normally they sit and wait where normal S/R or fibos are)

and as I said,it depends on the TFS you're looking at.
if you are daytrader it's fine to jump in and out on this trades as no market will drive the price up in a straight line...unless one EZ or US guy will burp something on one TV channel )

if you are a mid-long term trader using high lots on pin point entries that take time to develop then better wait for very good entry as you say.
patience is the key

as I mentioned in the last post,5946-5927 is a good bounce area as it is clogged with buyers+S area and anyway it is too early to go to 5860 today.

we don't even have the 50% confirmation on H1 yet....about to...but not yet.

and in order to have all the crosses in place on higher TFS's both lines(red and blue) need to do their part of the job...meaning red has to come down and blue has to go up otherwise the market is not balanced and ichi means ''equilibrium at one glance''


now....knowing what happened this morning on M5 and knowing 1.60 is a good rejection area and looking at the chart on M5 again...we see same pattern same trigger up there with TP @blue line which is 50% fibo and second TP @ 61.8 % fibo which is ...again under the flat kumo.

It's a pitty I was on the road when this thing happened and I could not take a shot at it but I stopped chasing all the pips long time ago.

now this move up down should last either till it brakes the range 1.6000-1.5945 and then we either see new highs as 1.6008-1.6020 wither we try to brake the 1.5927 level....but I doubt it will happen too soon.

first we need a cross on M5 then again on M15 and ...... till we have all of them sync and pointing the same direction then we will have the low level.

now I just sit and wait to see a clear brake which will probably take place in 25 min.

cheers and thanks for the heads up on the pivot.....but I still don't see it
could you please post a chart with the pivots just to see wether they line up with my charts...I still think that 5927-25 is last defence before the big fall
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU again.JPG Size: 209 KB
  • #305,027
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:43am Mar 27, 2012 9:43am
Quoting A-speculator
i think every single word you said is true.. that is why atm i'm staying with the aussie and kiwi. if my calculation is right, cable will only tank or at least shows the bearish signs no early than thursday where price squared time (please keep in mind that I'm new to time factoring)..
why will only tank?
actually there is still not a minimun sign of weakness in any TF.
maybe will have some rumors up down, as always and not certainly a straight up move but i don't think it will tank anytime before month closing candle.

anyway now 5980 going long would be stupid. but same going short in this scenario where there is still no strong sign of reversal. last time price touched this area, went straight below 5950 in 3-4 hours and never came back to highest, while this time is still knocking the door.
this to me means: wait a good dip to buy, which imo can be near 5915. below 5890 must be cautious. but looking for a possible buy level not necessarly means to short here.
but this is my trading way, and everyone can be right/wrong.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #305,028
  • Mar 27, 2012 9:54am Mar 27, 2012 9:54am
Quoting redbeben
Hi there BB

well....I don't even look at the pivots as it would be too much info in my head so I preffer to stick to what I know which is charts on ichi,past experience and raw info about buyers and sellers (normally they sit and wait where normal S/R or fibos are)

and as I said,it depends on the TFS you're looking at.
if you are daytrader it's fine to jump in and out on this trades as no market will drive the price up in a straight line...unless one EZ or US guy will burp something on one TV channel )

if you are a mid-long term trader using...
here's the chart.
anyway i really don't expect a "big fall". only some swings updonw but no more. slower TF shows everywhere strenghten in price. so a move down can simply be to find new demand.
time will tell,
and i'm obviously ready also to pick shorts but not now not today. maybe next week

gotta leave
good luck,
bybye
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 16 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #305,029
  • Mar 27, 2012 10:04am Mar 27, 2012 10:04am
Quoting _BBKing_
why will only tank?
actually there is still not a minimun sign of weakness in any TF.
maybe will have some rumors up down, as always and not certainly a straight up move but i don't think it will tank anytime before month closing candle.

anyway now 5980 going long would be stupid. but same going short in this scenario where there is still no strong sign of reversal. last time price touched this area, went straight below 5950 in 3-4 hours and never came back to highest, while this time is still knocking the door.
this to me means: wait a good dip...
because there's an overbalance in price & time (in terms of time factoring)..

by comparing pairs, atm aussie and kiwi is going south, and if both of that pairs going straight down, that will be the first indication that cable will follow suit. I think the price cable will have a pause is at the 5900 level and then it will go up to about the 5950 level, perhaps range a bit before breaking the 5900 level.

EG atm is signalling that there is weakness in the market, only in the matter of time cable will translate that. First to fall would be the aussie, than fiber and eventually cable. EG will tell us the magnitude of the drop, atm i reckon fiber will go down first before cable.

As you said, we won't go straight down to break the 5900 level, you pointed out that it would be a good price to enter long at about the 5915 level, i don't deny that, depending on how the PA reaction on aussie, fiber and candy when cable reach that zone, then only we can know if cable going for a rebound or not..

I personally don't see that cable will move any higher if aussie and fiber going south. My 2 cents..

*forgot to mention the swissy also.. look also PA on swissy.
  • #305,030
  • Mar 27, 2012 10:28am Mar 27, 2012 10:28am
Quoting A-speculator
because there's an overbalance in price & time (in terms of time factoring)..

by comparing pairs, atm aussie and kiwi is going south, and if both of that pairs going straight down, that will be the first indication that cable will follow suit. I think the price cable will have a pause is at the 5900 level and then it will go up to about the 5950 level, perhaps range a bit before breaking the 5900 level.

EG atm is signalling that there is weakness in the market, only in the matter of time cable will translate that. First to fall would be the aussie,...
i could be wrong, but for what i see market has changed in recent sessions: who is late here is just the AU!!
indeed GU was staggering between 5650-5750 while the other 2 (EU AU) were doing their homeworks and swissy was hold strong by SNB (...)
if AU will hold this area pip more pip less, will be lined up with the other two, and noting will stop them to destroy the USD.
not confirmed yet but very near to be.
personally i'm waiting to go long in AU. i missed the 03 area, hopefully 0440 0450 will show something soon!

damn i'm late.
byebye
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Immagine.jpg Size: 70 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #305,031
  • Mar 27, 2012 10:40am Mar 27, 2012 10:40am
Quoting _BBKing_
i could be wrong, but for what i see market has changed in recent sessions: who is late here is just the AU!!
indeed GU was staggering between 5650-5750 while the other 2 (EU AU) were doing their homeworks and swissy was hold strong by SNB (...)
if AU will hold this area pip more pip less, will be lined up with the other two, and noting will stop them to destroy the USD.
not confirmed yet but very near to be.
personally i'm waiting to go long in AU. i missed the 03 area, hopefully 0440 0450 will show something soon!

damn i'm late.
byebye...
excellent charting
  • #305,032
  • Mar 27, 2012 11:00am Mar 27, 2012 11:00am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3 h4 03-27-12.gif Size: 27 KB
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #305,033
  • Mar 27, 2012 11:12am Mar 27, 2012 11:12am
Quoting samdani786
missing some lines bro..
anyway, nice chart
I trade to live
  • #305,034
  • Mar 27, 2012 11:12am Mar 27, 2012 11:12am
Quoting samdani786
is this the expand pattern ? maybe we will see 1.6060 FIRST.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #305,035
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:45pm Mar 27, 2012 1:45pm
ihihihi
i left charts some time ago and i come back now with same prices or nearly same everywhere.

funny: we could study everything, and predict everything, but finally market have last word.

i was hoping to see a breaking down of 5950 or up of 6000.
all for tomorrow maybe.

looks like this will be a long week! (in terms of patience...)
time to sleep.

bybye
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #305,036
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:46pm Mar 27, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting geniusztc
is this the expand pattern ? maybe we will see 1.6060 FIRST.
looks like that kind of pattern.
one of worst and one of those i really hate to see in charts.

let's see what will happen tomorrow!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #305,037
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:47pm Mar 27, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
excellent charting
ehhe
tks!

now, 3...2...1.... boom, AU GU EU tank down 500pips in 1xh1 candle
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #305,038
  • Mar 27, 2012 2:34pm Mar 27, 2012 2:34pm
it's about to be a Murda
  • #305,039
  • Mar 27, 2012 4:33pm Mar 27, 2012 4:33pm
Quoting PoundTrader
it's about to be a Murda
so have a seat it's gonna be a masterpiece.
  • #305,040
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:05pm Mar 27, 2012 5:05pm
Daily candle closes as a bearish bodied inverted hammer at 5946 after the pullback off the Daily Hi at 6000..this bearish daily candle closing despite the day before's daily candle upside breech and close above the Daily and Weekly descending trend lines. Not a fractal swing yet on the Daily at 6000 but when such occurs - if it does so at there or above it will be a HH that followed 2 HL's on that t/f, or are we in for more downside ?

Time will tell.

G/L
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Click to Enlarge Name: z.jpg Size: 72 KB
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