Cable Update (GBPUSD)

5 lots huh... if only there were evidence.. even if theres evidence... still a showoff...
if cloggie was here he'll be in the iggy list in a zap....
but then again... he's got 10+vouch...
i really cant get a hold of this guy smike....

Good day everyone -

Sunny and blue skis here today......just got up from my sleep after closing my position.

Held my pound trade from yesterday till early this morning with decent results.....going to catch some sun and do some running around.

Cheers everyone.

Faller....

Loved the way you explained this.. Thanks.. That was very informative.. And I agree. However, even by know that we cannot assume that we know all the strategies and tactics. I mean we might be looking at it from a daily point of view (mid-term) while others (say Navin) may be looking at it from a longer term type of trade with a different lot size altogether. right?

Its not dangerous if you have the money and risk management figured out correctly. That is why I used the word "try". A move in one direction cannot go on forever, and a price is bound to retrace at some point. You can make use of these retracements to cover your loosing position if you had "not" started it with a awful lot of risk to start with and need to expose too much of your free margin to try to cover it.

Cheers

Don't worry, I think we were sort of joking - we are friends from a while ago. But in any case, 5 lots is not a huge figure for a succesful trader. What if it is scaled in? $15,000 dollars risk on that trade?. Also, people's definition of a lot varies.

I see a nice bear flag forming

Remember my diamonds.. This is my latest version

I think Short!!

I would be careful on shorts right now - watch price action and wait for a break of levels - pound did not follow through yet in USA session - look before you leap.

Currently I am flat - no positions opened at all.

Hint look at the 30 min chart.....ahhh screw it I will post a chart for you guys.....as bearish as I am.....I am a chartist also.....as many in here can tell you......and look what I see on the 30 min chart......

Cheers Faller....

Also if you just look at the potential head and potential right shoulder you can see a potential cup and handle formation which is very bullish....patterns are patterns.....you have to take them with other information.......just sharing some knowledge here.....

Faller.

I like to think that I am somewhat self-deprecating. Indeed, any examination of my submissions to Forex Factory would, one hopes, bear out this notion.

The ending emoticon was intended to suggest that the lot reference was something of a bold claim. However, subtlety is regularly missed on this forum.

Notwithstanding language differentials and contextual appreciation, previous exchanges between two members of this forum can be missed by many a reader, and so do, I admit, sometimes invite interruption to an otherwise establish exchange of banter between two reasonably regular communicators. Add to this generational misunderstanding, and measures of impulse containment between the aforementioned, and it is no surprise that this forum often degenerates into anonymous argument and acrimony… similar to the EU thread, the Cable thread often presents an arena for comment without repercussion.

Now, I like you, I really do. I like that you heed fundamentals, and submit your thoughts. However, I do think that you can react a little too quickly, sometimes.

Much like my relationship with Smikester, may I remind you of the comments upon Fitch a week or so ago; where you assumed that they were of US origin, until notified that they are actually of French origin.

Much like taking a little while longer to examine the relationship between Smikester and I, would you be interested to also learn that Marc Ladreit de Lacharriere sold the remainder of his holdings in Fitch last month, but with the proviso that he remain chairman of Fitch for another 9 years? Why, one would ask. Hmm, well, he is a founding member of the Robespierre Group, and forever entwined with the Hearst Corporation – the owner of 50% of Fitch. He is also very good friends with many of the owners of banks in France and the US, that, had the recent ISDA deal fallen through, could now possibly be sleeping on the streets. May go some way to explaining the inexplicable upgrade of Greece two days after the ISDA decision. And what interest does Fitch have in threatening to downgrade the UK around the same time? Oh how when just looking at the surface, we miss many of the undercurrents.

I take it you researched the following? Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings with Fitch, stated last June: ‘Fitch would regard a [Greek] debt exchange or voluntary debt rollover as a default event and would lead to the assignment of a default rating to Greece.’ Didn’t happen, though, did it? My point here is that it is always wise to research the past a little in order to try and understand the future, as often the conclusion contemporaneously made has little, if any correlation to antecedent incident.

Another point to consider: Marc Ladreit de Lacharriere is a close friend of Jacque Chirac, cannot tolerate Sarkosy, and is part of a club that one should exercise due diligence with before making sweeping comments upon.

I assume from your profile picture that you are still a student? If so, I must say that I wish I had your inclination for trying to understand fundamentals, or even current affairs. I admit that I was very different to you when your age. Indeed, and you may laugh, my only means of communication were a dial telephone(you know, that plugged into the wall – none of this wireless technology so pervasive today), mail (snail), or my legs. As for forex, I would have thought you were perhaps referring to some Scandinavian pine plantation – science was my interest.

I was happy to read your comments upon Gold – I seem to remember you stating that you had some opinions – as I, too, have made previous comments, and, I suppose like you, are watching China with interest as it purchases both physical, and resource mining operations… perhaps to make a gradual move to back the Reminbi with deposits that will see it take reserve currency status whilst hedging against default on its Dollar holdings?

Vouch system. It’s flattering to receive vouches, but let us be honest, the current system is subjection between two individual parties and exercises no controlling criteria to warrant quantitative appreciation. An aggregated system based on provable performance against reserve capital would perhaps be a better system, but then how does one measure the performance between someone running 10 Dollar a pip trades to one running 0.10 Dollar a pip trades, if each achieves the same pip total? Furthermore, each party may have hugely differing personal capital, and then such a system would have to account for leverage, psychology, etcetera. From here one can argue that many a good trader would not want to disclose balance amounts and therefore be lost to the forum… and how can one quantify comment upon the fundamental aspects to the market, and apportion approbation? Pff, there is so much more to discuss on such a topic that no system would ever, likely, be implemented.

Right, now that I have bored half of Forex Factory, I’m off to the garden to water the vegetable patch… yes, looking forward to this year’s harvest, but need to put the work in beforehand before realizing the result.

Oh, and should anyone want to know, the speculative short on Cable is a Dollar a pip on a 200 pip SL and targeting the 1.41 region. Now, I never normally state my position, but in this instance I feel that I need to. I agree that a trader on the forum should never state their fiscal exposure, nor make calls – to my recollection, I do not think I have ever done either – but in light of some comments, I may as well make an exception. If I was trading 5 standard lots with a 200 pip SL, I would certainly not be making my way to work along the motorway next week!

I'm still 100% bearish on it and waiting to it to come down at least to 1.5450 level.

Hopefully it can close below 1.5800 level today, as on a H4 T/F it appears to be a good turning point

I am IN...Short

In with you at 5810. But that is a very short trade btw.. 10 pips or so.. watch for 5800

Oh my goodness, how on earth did I ever receive a vouch from someone such as yourself

i could only wish someday i could trade that sort of lot sizes....

This was a joke and I hope nobody takes a short based on this. There is a distinct possibility that we may re-visit 1.61+ and even beyond if my short bias is proved wrong. On the other hand . . . ? ?

I actually spent time reading this, and from that i think i understand you a lot more, the way you expressed yourself shows clearly a veteran traders in this domain... i'm still young and much to learn, specially your attitudes towards thorough analysis, pretty impressive as i should say since im not capable of that yet... let alone a dissertation in 2 years time
i hope theres nothing bad between us though... its just i didnt catch smikester's joke....
ironic how i find it difficult to spot sarcasm in written texts rather than hearing it in person...
But still Cloggie might put you on the iggy list as i stated... for some reason i have a feeling that cloggie's not really keen in corporation which these forums promote... sooo who knows...
Would love to see YOU around here more, love the stuff you wrote, might actually help me someday later...

Hi bguguen,

I getting too old to try and make new enemies, and would rather sit in the garden here in France and get moderately inebriated with a dry rose… the ideal day would be to host, on a pleasant summer afternoon, a party for all that frequent FF, and share war stories of trading and argue over how best to trade. Now that would be a day to remember, and if the garden is not big enough, I’m surrounded by fields, and on friendly terms with the farmer.

Veteran… hmm, in some sense, yes, but time at the screen does not alone make a successful trader. I’m addicted, so will never call it a day… I engage in trading to pay for the annual safari, that sort of thing. In addition to this, I have very engaging employment, and so am in a fortunate position in that when not on site working, I can work from home and take the markets on. For others, they retire in a year or two; others, they struggle for years but always lose to the market.

Don’t worry about the dissertation – best advice I got for mine from one of my professor was: ‘I know what you have done and read your work so far, so don’t bore me with filling sentences of no substance, and don’t screw up with poor copy presentation.’ In other words, make sure your skills at presenting language on paper – grammar, syntax, that sort of thing - are acceptable. I mention this as I now know that the adjudicators probably already know the merit of your work, and wish to see it presented coherently, and with conviction. During your verbal – I make the assumption that you will do this – act like a borg; serious and resolute in what you say. I think the adjudicators deliberately ask a difficult question to see if you stumble into barely audible, babbling nonsense, or if you take that one extra breath before answering.

I do try to keep to Cesarnc’s thread, but am known to wander.