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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #24,921
  • Mar 21, 2012 2:05am Mar 21, 2012 2:05am
Good morning...

Talk of stops through 1.3285.

Talk of offers clustered 1.3300/25.

Talk of bids clustered down at 1.3200/20.


http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...mer-in-asia-7/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,922
  • Mar 21, 2012 2:07am Mar 21, 2012 2:07am
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...al_EURUSD.html

21 March 2012 06:25 GMT http://www.dailyfx.com/design/fxcm/img/common/blank.gif







http://www.dailyfx.com/design/fxcm/i...e/dfx-icon.png

http://www.dailyfx.com/design/fxcm/i...e/dfx-icon.png


http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...D_body_eur.png
EUR/USD: The market has been well supported on the latest dip towards key support at 1.2975 and the subsequent bounce back above 1.3100 delays bearish prospects and opens the door for additional consolidation over the coming days. The key levels to watch above and below come in by 1.3315 and 1.2975 respectively and a break and close above or below will be required for clearer directional bias. In the interim we remain sidelined.


--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist
  • #24,923
  • Mar 21, 2012 2:28am Mar 21, 2012 2:28am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning...

Talk of stops through 1.3285.

Talk of offers clustered 1.3300/25.

Talk of bids clustered down at 1.3200/20.


http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...mer-in-asia-7/
This is same in from Oanda.

Attached Image
  • #24,924
  • Edited 2:49am Mar 21, 2012 2:35am | Edited 2:49am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
GMT

8:15EUR ECB Calls for Bids in 7-Day US Dollar Tender
9:30EUR "EU's Van Rompuy, Bosnia's Izetbegovic Speak to Media"
9:30GBP Bank of England Publishes Minutes of March MPC Meeting
10:00EUR ECB Announces Allotment in 7-Day US Dollar Tender
10:30EUR Schaeuble Briefs Closed Budget Commitee in Parliament: Berlin
12:00EUR "EU's Barnier, De Gucht Speak on Public Procurement in Brussels"
12:30EUR Schaeuble Presents Main Points of Draft 2013 Budget: Berlin
13:00 all Russia to Sell RUB35 Bln OFZ Bond Due 2021
13:30EUR "Ashton, Blair, Fayyad at Palestinian Donor Meeting in Brussels"
14:00EUR EU's Barnier Speaks in European Parliament Committee
15:00USD U.S. Fed to Purchase USD3.50-4.25 Bln Notes
EUR EU's Rehn Meets Greece's Deputy Finance Minister in Brussels

Another add - just got more times:

Mar 21 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Mar 21 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Mar 21 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 4 & 6M T-bills
  • #24,925
  • Mar 21, 2012 2:53am Mar 21, 2012 2:53am
I was surprised to see price trade all the way to 1.3283 but, taking a longer view, it does seem to make a certain amount of sense to me. My (purely technical) analysis now follows.

As I see it, from about Jan. 23 to Feb. 22, the Euro traded in a price range extending from roughly 1.2985 to 1.3285, with a "core range" of about 1.3026 to 1.3219.

From Feb. 22 until March 3, price extended upward into a new range -- pure froth in my mind, caused by market giddiness over Greece -- to its peak of about 1.3487, but could not find support at previous resistance (1.3285) and fell back into the previous range.

The bottom of the "core range" has been tested, and support was found, at which time price has now moved back to test the top of the range.

To summarize, the basic movement in price since its peak has been:
1) Breakout of the "frothy" range
2) Test of previous "core range" support (1.3026 or so)
3) Test of resistance at top of range

If, in fact, resistance at around 1.3285 holds, I would expect a re-test of "core range" support, and possibly the bottom of the extended range (1.2985).

I have adjusted my downward price channel to reflect this possibility (which I believe is fair game, since price channels are merely drawn to reflect price movement and don't themselves offer support or resistance).

This channel may or may not contain price on the way down, IF in fact we are seeing solid resistance in the 1.3285 area.
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Student of the Markets
  • #24,926
  • Edited 4:56am Mar 21, 2012 4:40am | Edited 4:56am
Quoting genuinelyFX
Following an updated chart from this morning, I still see 1.3280-300 area as a potentially good area for a short, yet with some dependency on the way price would get there. Price bounced strongly from the 1.3180 level, but is yet to decide whether to continue it’s way to the next resistance area or reverse. But, most likely on a good old Wednesday we will see something reliable, starting with London. Good luck everyone and trade safe!

Attachment
Previous chart:
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There is something cool about this line...we could see a bounce towards ema, from the resistance area at 1.3280-300:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Update:also could be a consolidation above previous high, thus preparing to break it..stay sharp
charting the euro...
  • #24,927
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:18am Mar 21, 2012 5:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
No.. During the pre crisis trading years, the average daily range for the Euro was around 50 to 70 pips. Today is is about 120 to 150 pips.

So if we return to pre crisis ATR on the Euro (and other USD crosses), then in order to make the same intraday profits we have become accustomed to in the last 4 years, we would have to double our lot size.

High ATR = 100 pip move at 1 lot = 100 pip lots

Low ATR = 50 pip move at 2 lots = 100 pip lots
Forex market is in Awwwwww mode since start of this month.... Gone are the days when it used to be mad and dynamic..... 100 pips was matter of few mins.. now its few days... Awwwwww
  • #24,928
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:36am Mar 21, 2012 5:36am
Quoting genuinelyFX
Previous chart:Attachment


There is something cool about this line...we could see a bounce towards ema, from the resistance area at 1.3280-300:

Attachment

Update:also could be a consolidation above previous high, thus preparing to break it..stay sharp
Couple of areas I keep eye on:
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  • #24,929
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:38am Mar 21, 2012 5:38am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PeepPeep
Forex market is in Awwwwww mode since start of this month.... Gone are the days when it used to be mad and dynamic..... 100 pips was matter of few mins.. now its few days... Awwwwww
I wouldn't say those times are over. Within these crises years there as been such movements before - actually if you take a look at history - there seems to be similar movement around same time every year.

I don't know actual cause of this, but I assume it has something to do with bookkeeping of institutions. I guess they are closing their balance sheets to the end of March and that way we lose liquidity in market. Only Lemmings like us and real big players are in market. I could be all wrong, but this sounds logical to me.

If you take a look at history, trading of EURUSD seems to get steam again in a beginning of april.

Really, I'm just assuming.
  • #24,930
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:39am Mar 21, 2012 5:39am
I am going to wait 1.3295 to be hit
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  • #24,931
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:10am Mar 21, 2012 6:10am
I see the fact that price bounced off resistance without any penetration whatsoever (1.3285 exactly) as a good sign for Euro shorts.
Student of the Markets
  • #24,932
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:30am Mar 21, 2012 6:30am
Quoting dchristi
I see the fact that price bounced off resistance without any penetration whatsoever (1.3285 exactly) as a good sign for Euro shorts.
a bit late in the London session to be jumping in. Best wait till NY opens and see where they want to take things.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,933
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:31am Mar 21, 2012 6:31am
Hi guyz,

Hope u all are well Full of greens
Haven't traded much these days. Only a short on nzd/usd.
I am out of country for some construction project will be back in a week .
cya guyz
MMMYYYKKK
  • #24,934
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:32am Mar 21, 2012 6:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
a bit late in the London session to be jumping in. Best wait till NY opens and see where they want to take things.
I respect your point of view, and likely greater experience.

But as a trader, I feel I have to act according to my analysis, and take the signals as I see them, which I have done.
Student of the Markets
  • #24,935
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:36am Mar 21, 2012 6:36am
Same here Goldman.

Quoting GoldMan.
Couple of areas I keep eye on:
  • #24,936
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:39am Mar 21, 2012 6:39am
Quoting dchristi
I respect your point of view, and likely greater experience.

But as a trader, I feel I have to act according to my analysis, and take the signals as I see them, which I have done.
absolutely
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,937
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:41am Mar 21, 2012 6:41am
What about EJ? Does it bounce from 111.60?
  • #24,938
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:42am Mar 21, 2012 6:42am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting dchristi
I respect your point of view, and likely greater experience.

But as a trader, I feel I have to act according to my analysis, and take the signals as I see them, which I have done.
What PT is referring at is that once NY opens - the game will change. Events when trend most likely turns are London opening and NY opening. Opening trade based on morning's movement just before NY is always risky. It is better to wait and see.

Well - of course it is your money and it is up to you how you spend them.

Hope your doing well.

PS. For your benefit there is benny boy in tube at 13:30 which may support USD and shorting.
  • #24,939
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:47am Mar 21, 2012 6:47am
Quoting dchristi
I respect your point of view, and likely greater experience.

But as a trader, I feel I have to act according to my analysis, and take the signals as I see them, which I have done.
G'morning.

I guess it depends on your time frame and expected gains. PT's time frame is that of days or not weeks and I don't think he happy unless it's 200+ pips. Although we have failed to move above 1.3285 a short there is good if your time frame is short. I have not seen an indication that this move up is over (other than the psych 1.3285 level). We have not yet breached the 50% FIB line from the high of 1.34xx. I'd want to see confirmation on the 4 hour chart below that level to consider a short.

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #24,940
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:48am Mar 21, 2012 6:48am
Quoting AFXFin
What PT is referring at is that once NY opens - the game will change. Events when trend most likely turns are London opening and NY opening. Opening trade based on morning's movement just before NY is always risky. It is better to wait and see.

Well - of course it is your money and it is up to you how you spend them.

Hope your doing well.
I have noticed this myself, and I agree in general.

Of course I could be wrong, as I often am, but I do see the bounce off resistance at 1.3285 to be a noteworthy event -- not something that happens every day. Because of that, I felt (and feel) that the trade was justified.
Student of the Markets
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