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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #24,901
  • Mar 20, 2012 11:45am Mar 20, 2012 11:45am
Hi cbg, why would this invalidate teh H&S on daily?
If we go above 1.332 ok.
1.331 is gong to be tough to break
Quoting Cgb
Target for today could be daily R1 at 1.3281 if 1.3240 clears. This would also invalidate the head and shoulder formation on the daily and place the higher target for March 30th in play.
  • #24,902
  • Mar 20, 2012 11:51am Mar 20, 2012 11:51am
Quoting BrunargarFx
Hi cbg, why would this invalidate teh H&S on daily?
If we go above 1.332 ok.
1.331 is gong to be tough to break
I agree that it would take a move above 1.3320 to even consider that the daily H/S pattern might be invalidated, but according to H/S rules, a H/S pattern is truly invalidated as soon as the right shoulder price reaches the head price and it this case it is 1.3485. At 1.3485 (give or take 10 pips on a daily chart) it becomes a double top. Only once above that, it becomes a bullish continuation.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,903
  • Mar 20, 2012 11:51am Mar 20, 2012 11:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
... Mind you, all one has to do is double the lot size of his/her trades to adjust for the reduction in pippage.
..not clear to me ... is that something like double the ODDs ?
  • #24,904
  • Mar 20, 2012 11:56am Mar 20, 2012 11:56am
Quoting rekon67
..not clear to me ... is that something like double the ODDs ?
No.. During the pre crisis trading years, the average daily range for the Euro was around 50 to 70 pips. Today is is about 120 to 150 pips.

So if we return to pre crisis ATR on the Euro (and other USD crosses), then in order to make the same intraday profits we have become accustomed to in the last 4 years, we would have to double our lot size.

High ATR = 100 pip move at 1 lot = 100 pip lots

Low ATR = 50 pip move at 2 lots = 100 pip lots
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,905
  • Mar 20, 2012 12:04pm Mar 20, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I agree that it would take a move above 1.3320 to even consider that the daily H/S pattern might be invalidated, but according to H/S rules, a H/S pattern is truly invalidated as soon as the right shoulder price reaches the head price and it this case it is 1.3485. At 1.3485 (give or take 10 pips on a daily chart) it becomes a double top. Only once above that, it becomes a bullish continuation.
Yup, that's why
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #24,906
  • Mar 20, 2012 12:18pm Mar 20, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
No.. During the pre crisis trading years, the average daily range for the Euro was around 50 to 70 pips. Today is is about 120 to 150 pips.

So if we return to pre crisis ATR on the Euro (and other USD crosses), then in order to make the same intraday profits we have become accustomed to in the last 4 years, we would have to double our lot size.

High ATR = 100 pip move at 1 lot = 100 pip lots

Low ATR = 50 pip move at 2 lots = 100 pip lots
Hmm ... Thanks PT! Interesting ..
  • #24,907
  • Mar 20, 2012 12:19pm Mar 20, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting genuinelyFX
Good morning! Price managed a slip to the daily pivot shortly after London open which until now still holds the ground. Below, strong support comes at 1.3180, which can be a good level for buying into a position, targeting the upper resistance at 1.3280-300. Make your plan, add the patience and execute with confidence. Good luck and trade safe!

Attachment
Following an updated chart from this morning, I still see 1.3280-300 area as a potentially good area for a short, yet with some dependency on the way price would get there. Price bounced strongly from the 1.3180 level, but is yet to decide whether to continue it’s way to the next resistance area or reverse. But, most likely on a good old Wednesday we will see something reliable, starting with London. Good luck everyone and trade safe!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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charting the euro...
  • #24,908
  • Mar 20, 2012 12:23pm Mar 20, 2012 12:23pm
long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 14.png Size: 25 KB
  • #24,909
  • Mar 20, 2012 7:25pm Mar 20, 2012 7:25pm
In daily chart, time to go short on E/J?
  • #24,910
  • Mar 20, 2012 7:26pm Mar 20, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting Logik
In daily chart, time to go short on E/J?
yea maybe... but id wait until a selloff
  • #24,911
  • Mar 20, 2012 9:13pm Mar 20, 2012 9:13pm
Quoting genuinelyFX
Following an updated chart from this morning, I still see 1.3280-300 area as a potentially good area for a short, yet with some dependency on the way price would get there. Price bounced strongly from the 1.3180 level, but is yet to decide whether to continue it’s way to the next resistance area or reverse. But, most likely on a good old Wednesday we will see something reliable, starting with London. Good luck everyone and trade safe!

Attachment
Jim,
We’re getting closer…
CIGA Stefaan
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...02_thumb14.jpg
  • #24,912
  • Mar 20, 2012 9:17pm Mar 20, 2012 9:17pm
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...he-jobs-parade

Snippet:

Earlier this month the Labor Department reported that 227,000 new jobs were added to the economy in February, marking the third consecutive month of positive jobs growth. Many observers took the news as evidence that the recovery has taken hold in earnest, helping send the S&P 500 index to the highest level in nearly five years. However the very same day the Commerce Department reported that, after surging for much of the last year, the U.S. trade deficit increased to $52.6 billion for January, the largest monthly trade gap since October 2008. This second data set should dampen enthusiasm for the first.

Before the financial crisis banished the data to the back pages, America's growing trade imbalances used to be a hot topic. From 2005 through mid-2008 those monthly figures almost always topped $50 or $60 billion, setting a monthly record of $67.3 billion in August 2006. But when the housing and credit markets imploded, attention was focused elsewhere. In any event, the faltering economy took a huge bite out of imports, pushing the trade deficit down 45% in 2009. Even those people who were still paying attention to trade assumed that the problem was solving itself.

The last time the monthly trade deficit was north of $50 billion, the official unemployment rate was under 6% and our labor force was considerably larger. Should this artificial recovery actually return millions of unemployed to service sector employment, our monthly trade deficits could go much higher, perhaps eclipsing the previous records of 2006. It is possible that the annual deficits could top the $1 trillion mark, thereby joining the federal [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]budget [COLOR=blue !important]deficit[/color][/color][/color] in 13-digit territory.

Also last week, we got news that our fourth quarter current account deficit widened 15% to just over $124 billion. The five hundred billion of annual red ink is actually reduced by a $50 billion surplus in investment income (resulting primarily from foreign holdings of low-yielding U.S.

Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities -- however, when interest rates eventually rise, this surplus will quickly turn into a huge deficit). At anything close to a historic average in employment and interest rates, today's structural imbalances could produce annual current account deficits well north of $1 trillion. As higher interest rates would also swell the federal budget deficit, it is worth asking ourselves how long the world will be willing to finance our multi-trillion dollar deficits?

Back in the late 1980s, when annual trade and budget deficits were but a small fraction of today's levels, the markets were rightly concerned about America's ability to sustain its twin deficits. This anxiety helped lead to the stock market crash of 1987. More recently, large and persistent trade deficits were a significant factor in building the imbalances that caused the U.S. economy to implode in 2008. But in recent years, most Americans have lost their concern with gaping trade deficits. I believe it will soon come back with a vengeance.
  • #24,913
  • Mar 20, 2012 9:56pm Mar 20, 2012 9:56pm
Well I can see that my carefully reasoned analysis was completely wrong.

I have the bottom of the next range at 1.3285...but no more predictions from me. I'm just going to sit here and shut up!

Student of the Markets
  • #24,914
  • Mar 20, 2012 10:26pm Mar 20, 2012 10:26pm
Quoting dchristi
Well I can see that my carefully reasoned analysis was completely wrong.

I have the bottom of the next range at 1.3285...but no more predictions from me. I'm just going to sit here and shut up!

Please don't shut down! Nothing is there to be ashamed of if price is not going on your way! Important is keep predicting with analytical mind ... if you analyse, predict and shout and PA does the opposite then also you learn!
  • #24,915
  • Mar 20, 2012 10:58pm Mar 20, 2012 10:58pm
Quoting rekon67
Please don't shut down! Nothing is there to be ashamed of if price is not going on your way! Important is keep predicting with analytical mind ... if you analyse, predict and shout and PA does the opposite then also you learn!
Thanks for the encouragement, and actually I agree. Unfortunately for you guys, there's little to no chance that I'll shut up permanently. Maybe for a little while though.

And I'm always open to learning something new!
Student of the Markets
  • #24,916
  • Mar 20, 2012 11:04pm Mar 20, 2012 11:04pm
Quoting dchristi
Thanks for the encouragement, and actually I agree. Unfortunately for you guys, there's little to no chance that I'll shut up permanently. Maybe for a little while though.

And I'm always open to learning something new!

Ha ..Ha! Gr8

We are in the equinoctial point for E/U! Staying above will see the 1.34xx again down we go for 1.30xx.
  • #24,917
  • Mar 20, 2012 11:12pm Mar 20, 2012 11:12pm
E/U forget some pending task there I suppose!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,918
  • Mar 21, 2012 1:35am Mar 21, 2012 1:35am
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/0...ar-going-to-3/

It is a financial “unnatural act” when an A- rated bank can extend credit to a AA+ borrower and still make money in the process. This reverse credit arbitrage is made possible by the banks willingness to “borrow short and lend long”. The banks are doing it today because they have unlimited quantities of liquidity available to them through the repo markets at near zero cost. They are playing the carry trade. In the process, they are loading up their balance sheets with low yielding assets, and they are taking risks of rising rates. There is a limit to this.

As of this morning, many of those US financials that own the $1.8T of bonds are not so happy. The strong stock market, better economy and rising inflation expectations have clobbered the bonds the past few days. Some may think that the ten-year at 2.20% is a “buy”. But all I see in this chart is the “air” under the current price.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JUKR-40aPA...ndcontract.png

Not surprisingly, inflation expectations have picked up:

Absent a new move by the Fed to contain long-term interest rates, the ten-year looks like it is headed to 3%. The Chinese are not buying, the banks are full up with paper (and underwater), PIMCO et al are long duration up the wazoo, and any thought that retail interest in five-year bonds at 1% will save the day is just misguided (dumb money is not that dumb).

Bernanke must be delighted today. His strategy all along has been to inflate the S&P and let rising asset values stimulate economic growth. His unlimited supply of cheap money has worked. But it has stoked inflation and that is now being transmitted to the bond market.

I think something has to give, either stocks back off and the economy cools, or the ten-year is headed to 3%. Bernanke can’t have it both ways
  • #24,919
  • Mar 21, 2012 1:55am Mar 21, 2012 1:55am
http://www.forbes.com/sites/charlesk...alling-dollar/

The greatest price of the deception created by the falling dollar is the steady erosion of our liberty. The illusion of higher oil prices has been exploited by the governing class to increase the size and scope of government. Mandates proliferate, from the imposition of fuel economy standards to the wasting of billions of dollars in subsidies on ethanol, electric vehicles, money losing green energy projects, and windmills that slaughter 250,000 birds each year.

The power to print money at will also has corrupted our system of government. First, by financing growing government deficits with newly created money, it has removed the ability of market participants to check the growth of government. Even worse, the combination since December 2008 of zero percent interest rates and an 8% increase in the price level represents an unaccounted for partial default on the federal government’s then $10 trillion in debt. In effect, the government has stolen $800 billion from the holders of its debt. On today’s $15 trillion federal debt, the theft, and injustice, is even greater.

This lack of accountability has undermined the legitimacy of government — and also legitimate commerce. An unstable value of the dollar has contributed to the bubbles and more frequent and severe financial crises of the past 40 years. It has led to the proliferation of all sorts of financial instruments and derivatives that advantage Wall Street over Main Street. And, the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy continues to rip off savers by transferring hundreds of billions of dollars in spending power to those who borrow.

Far more is at stake than high gasoline prices. Restoring order to oil markets, stability to gasoline prices and legitimacy to government and markets requires a fundamental reform of our paper dollar monetary system. The latest oil shock, the current financial crisis, and the experience of the last 60 years demonstrate that replacing the paper dollar with a dollar as good as gold is essential if government is to fulfill is fundamental purpose of securing for the people their unalienable rights to life, liberty, property and the pursuit of happiness.

Kno's Comments: The amazing part of this article is that and others like it as you can see from my posts and links are becoming much more mainstream and less and less people are being kept in the dark. This is a rigged game so be aware of it when you trade to keep your edge.
  • #24,920
  • Mar 21, 2012 2:04am Mar 21, 2012 2:04am
http://www.usatoday.com/money/econom...ary/53664412/1

Snippet:

They requested 5% more permits in February to build single-family homes and apartments in the coming months. That increased the annual rate to a seasonally adjusted 717,000 permits, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

While that's still half the rate considered healthy by most economists, it's the highest since October 2008.

"This report is one of the more encouraging new construction reports we have seen in the last four years," said Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight.

Builders have grown more confident over the past six months after seeing more people express interest in buying a home.


http://images.usatoday.com/_common/_images/clear.gif





The rise in permits suggests builders see that interest translating into sales over the next 12 months. That's how long it typically takes to build a home after a permit is obtained.

Economists cautioned that construction levels remain depressed and the housing market has a long way to go before it is back to full health.
In an indication of that challenge, the government said builders broke ground on slightly fewer homes in February. The seasonally adjusted rate of 698,000 housing starts fell from January's revised level of 706,000, which was the highest since October 2008.

Kno's Comments: The FED cannot CONTROL Rising Interest Rates Much Longer so we watch New Home Sales... And Yields On the 10 Year and 30 Year...
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