It is coming very soon!
Looking Forward to see a Pro Full-Timer!
- #24,461
- Mar 15, 2012 6:57am Mar 15, 2012 6:57am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
Looking Forward to see a Pro Full-Timer!
- #24,462
- Mar 15, 2012 7:38am Mar 15, 2012 7:38am
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Simple chart is the best... | 2,014 Posts
Good Morning/Afternoon Fellow Traders….
Weak and wounded bulls came to attack this morning.
Round number 1.30000 was the magic trigger for them to activate.
Think bears won’t give up so easily and would like to attack 1.3000-1.2980 soon again.
Great entry point for them would be 1.30800 and 1.31000.
I prefer 1.31000, as it ideally covers 50%Fibo, round number 1.3100 and previous strong support/resistance lines.
So I am also preparing slowly to go SHORT maybe at around 1.3100 with my TARGET set up on 1.2980
Now am scalping LONG a little bit with small accounts, just to kill time ;-)
REJECTION:
Certainly, scenario is rejected if we go trading above 1.31200.
Weak and wounded bulls came to attack this morning.
Round number 1.30000 was the magic trigger for them to activate.
Think bears won’t give up so easily and would like to attack 1.3000-1.2980 soon again.
Great entry point for them would be 1.30800 and 1.31000.
I prefer 1.31000, as it ideally covers 50%Fibo, round number 1.3100 and previous strong support/resistance lines.
So I am also preparing slowly to go SHORT maybe at around 1.3100 with my TARGET set up on 1.2980
Now am scalping LONG a little bit with small accounts, just to kill time ;-)
REJECTION:
Certainly, scenario is rejected if we go trading above 1.31200.
Read Charts - Not Papers
- #24,464
- Mar 15, 2012 7:51am Mar 15, 2012 7:51am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
No mate, respect to you. You are one of the few around that stand on its opinion and defend with valid arguments instead of dancing around and avoiding a healthy discussion....
So let's keep filtering out the +/- agreementsso my comments:
So, my responses in green
EZ economy is faltering [not really is bottoming and flattening considering the EZ as whole]
- Perhaps that statement wasn't exactly explained properly but the reports and expectations are that there are a very high number of European corporates which will default on their debt in the weaker EZ economies
I don't think there is any real proof of this and I haven't found any sources to even confirm this as systemic problem ...only very tiny reference to specific cases in Greece so disagree as purely speculative option
European corporate debt defaults may double in 2012 http://gbm.rbs.com/docs/gbm/insight/...e-defaults.pdf
European corporate defaults set to rise http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/479a7...#axzz1pBhKohaO
Above are just two of many examples of how the media is touting the higher risk of corporate defaults in Europe in 2012. Sure it is only media and has not manifested yet. However, don't you think this media hype has an impact on investor confidence?
Capital is flowing out of EZ [not really, last ECB numbers show an important influx of healthy and quality money going back to EZ...1st time since the debt crisis started]
- Yes there is healthy "real money" flowing back into the EuroZone according to the latest ECB report. However, the net capital flows are still outbound. Just look at the overall trade deficits in the EZ (Excluding Germany)
Well you maybe confusing 2 different macroeconomic concepts. One is trade balance and the other is the balance of payments:
1. trade deficit doesn't account for capital flows by default in any statistic so you cannot see that via trade deficits.
2. The EZ trade balances has been positive the last Quarters (obviously via cheaper euro) AND you can't exclude Germany out of any equation because the weight in the total. A extreme metaphorical example is that Greece can have a trade deficit of 1000% of it GDP but it will have tiny (not even that) impact in the total EZ trade balance as it only represent less than 1.8% of the total.
In simple words we agree on there is healthy "real money" flowing back into the EuroZone but I disagree and I think is not technically correct to mix this with trade balances.
Okay I understand your point. However you are looking at it from a cash accrual basis and I am looking at it from an accounting basis. So I guess we will continue to disagree on this one. Fair enough though. That's what makes this topic so interesting. Two different opinions which are both correct
Liquidity is not always capital [agree] and in this case EZ liquidity is debt [not true and not at all...on what are you basing this comment]
- EZ banks are holding loads of toxic sovereign debt from the EZ peripheral countries and some northern ones too. There are only a small handful of EZ members with a debt to GDP ratio at or under the required 60% and also very few with a budget deficit at or under 3%. Furthermore as indicated above, there is an expectation and high risk of corporate debt defaults which would force the banks who lent them the capital to write down these bad debts. The liquidity in these EZ banks is provided by the ECB and is collateralized by the said toxic assets. Therefore, the liquidity is effectively debt.
Well strongly disagree with part in bold. Is technically correct but you are jumping the gun on that. high risk of corporate debt? e banks who lent them the capital to write down these bad debts? EZ banks is provided by the ECB and is collateralized by the said toxic assets? No bro it could happen but we are very far from that scenario and there is no single valid proof of this.
I understand and agree on the Greek case on "toxic assets" but again you need to put size and % of total pie in the picture. Sure it didn't look v healthy
but look at size we are talking about in comparison with EZ total...again just crumbs...
On this one we shall also remain in disagreement. The assets are in fact toxic in my opinion as long as the prospects of economic recovery are still in question. Whilst I agree with you that I may be jumping the gun by calling them toxic assets, nobody can really call them safe assets either, and with a perceived impending recession in Europe and no viable growth plans in place, there are substantial downside risks (which was even part of Draghi's statement at the last press conference)
3. There is effectively no rate differential any more between US and EZ [NO !!! not true that's IMO a very wrong statement. 0.25% to 1% is a huge difference ..thats why the euro is still 30% more expensive than the dollar....the next macro move in the pair will come from there 100% Guarantee]
- I said "effectively" because potential rewards from carry trades on a 0.75% spread are not enough to outweigh the risks of investing in EZ businesses who are having a hard time servicing their debt.
Interesting view but that's a BIG statement mate and I don't think many people will put the risk of doing business in Europe at such big prime...looks more proper for a sub emergent market investment not for top tier world zone.
What it may happen and I will agree with you, is that the FED will increase rates first (we got the earliest noise the last 2 weeks). That will definitively narrow the spread via interest rates not via risk (no way via risk ...is europe no Afghanistan we are talking about) and sub 1.20xx will be wide open
This goes back and is tied into the higher risk of corporate defaults in Europe this year. That is what my assertion is based on.
I agree that there is probably a higher likelihood of the Fed raising rates before any additional rate cuts or other stimulus by the ECB, but you cannot discount the latter in support of the former.
5. The ECB is expected to cut rates further [Not true not all. why do you say that]
- Because that is what the market expectation is. I never said it was fact. I said they are "expected to", and as you know, Mr. Market is driven by expectation (Perception) and not reality. Although, perception often becomes reality.
No mate this is not true and I don't think will reach an agreement on that one. Is not only my opinion but is the 99% general consensus ...plus Germany and friends will not even think about risking inflation after all they have put to save the misbehave others
Yes, I fully agree that Germany will be vehemently opposed to any further rate cuts by the ECB. However, the ECB will do whatever is required to fulfill its single mandate of price stability. If the economic growth issue is not addressed and resolved before the end of June, Europe may face deflationary conditions (unless the Euro keeps diving towards 1.20 or below)
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #24,465
- Mar 15, 2012 7:53am Mar 15, 2012 7:53am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #24,466
- Mar 15, 2012 7:58am Mar 15, 2012 7:58am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #24,467
- Mar 15, 2012 8:03am Mar 15, 2012 8:03am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: "Not all information is beneficial. | 1,724 Posts
Don't jump the gun. Wait for NY open. They may very well drive it up to 1.31xx
I will be ready to short around 1.3100/10 area depending on PA once it gets there.
ADD: Daily R2 is around 1.3118 That would be a good place to short on the bounce off R2 (if it makes it that far) I will keep a tight stop around 1.3130 though as above 1.3120/25 area there will probably many buy stops and/or sell stop losses
- #24,468
- Mar 15, 2012 8:06am Mar 15, 2012 8:06am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Hi sisse,
I am reading your conversation with PT and I dont want to join in and qoute directly, as it may start look confusing. Nevertheless I wanted to ask you something.
It is about ECB cutting rates and toxic assets.
I am with PT for additional monetary stimulus for EU, especially for banking sector. It doesnt necessarily have to be lowering or IR, but how about LTRO2, or some other kind of stealth QE?
Which brings me to second part of the question. ECB is full of toilet paper. It seems to me you think that there is only small portion...
I like the way you have kept it separate from the discussion between me and Sisse, but please don't feel you will be confusing any issues. I value your opinion in these matters... that's why you got my voucher long ago.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #24,469
- Mar 15, 2012 8:08am Mar 15, 2012 8:08am
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Why so serious ??? | 436 Posts
Don't jump the gun. Wait for NY open. They may very well drive it up to 1.31xx
I will be ready to short around 1.3100/10 area depending on PA once it gets there.
ADD: Daily R2 is around 1.3118 That would be a good place to short on the bounce off R2 (if it makes it that far) I will keep a tight stop around 1.3130 though as above 1.3120/25 area there will probably many buy stops and/or sell stop losses
ADD2: It is also the 61.8% fibo from Tuesday's high
- #24,470
- Mar 15, 2012 8:12am Mar 15, 2012 8:12am
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Why so serious ??? | 436 Posts
I have this line at ,30579, which is week51/2011 close. And yes, it is holding very well. Unfortunately (maybe luckily) I am too big coward to scalp.
- #24,471
- Mar 15, 2012 8:17am Mar 15, 2012 8:17am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
I'm at 1.31097
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #24,472
- Mar 15, 2012 8:21am Mar 15, 2012 8:21am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
I observe your reality but live my own. 
- #24,473
- Mar 15, 2012 8:30am Mar 15, 2012 8:30am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: "Not all information is beneficial. | 1,724 Posts
* Management reserves the right to alter, delete, change direction, or approach as scalp, intraday, position trade at anytime and with all positions without notice to Mr. Market!
- #24,474
- Mar 15, 2012 8:37am Mar 15, 2012 8:37am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
This is why I am presently part-time, these trades require management!*
* Management reserves the right to alter, delete, change direction, or approach as scalp, intraday, position trade at anytime and with all positions without notice to Mr. Market!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #24,475
- Mar 15, 2012 8:40am Mar 15, 2012 8:40am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #24,476
- Mar 15, 2012 9:18am Mar 15, 2012 9:18am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #24,477
- Mar 15, 2012 9:19am Mar 15, 2012 9:19am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #24,478
- Mar 15, 2012 9:37am Mar 15, 2012 9:37am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Today is certainly a scalper's wet dream day and swing traders must be pulling their hair out! Of course, trend or position traders are just sitting back and reading their newspapers.
Bullish Symmetrical Triangle nearing apex. Breakout is eminent...
I'm on the sideline waiting for it.
ADD: Additional reading on it - http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...rical_triangle
Good stuff
No quick fix from cheap loans warns ECB
The European Central Bank has said it may be several months before the eurozone economy feels the benefit of €1trn of cheap loans it has pumped into the financial system.
The comments amount to a warning from the central bank not to expect a quick fix from its policy for some struggling eurozone economies, where banks are reining in lending to companies and consumers.
Some critics of the ECB’s longer-term refinancing operations have expressed concerns that banks will not pass on the cheap money but will prefer to invest in government bonds – deriving profits from a so-called “carry trade”.
At least 800 eurozone banks took advantage of the three-year loans to refinance parts of their balance sheets and give themselves potential firepower to invest in higher-yielding assets. Mario Draghi, ECB president, has said the loans – a centrepiece of his crisis response policies since taking the central bank’s helm last year – helped to avert a damaging credit crunch in the eurozone.
By improving funding conditions, the ECB had eased pressure on financial markets by averting a potential “disorderly shedding of assets”, the central bank said on Thursday in its monthly bulletin.
However the ECB said: “It may take several months for the full supportive impact on banks’ lending to households and non-financial corporations to become visible in the monetary data.”
Credit growth should strengthen as a result of the LTROs, the ECB said, but “may remain subdued for some time”.
The ECB also indirectly addressed concerns raised by Jens Weidmann, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank and a member of the ECB’s governing council, who has questioned the decision to give more banks access to cheap central bank funding by relaxing the standards for the quality of collateral banks need to provide in return.
Collateral quality was continually reviewed and haircuts on collateral meant risk control was conservative, the ECB said.
Dismissing fears that its policies could bring inflation, the ECB said it had “all of the means necessary” to ensure stable prices.
The central bank added that the need for funds did seem to have played a part in banks’ use of the LTROs in December, when more than 520 banks borrowed €489bn, and the wider operation in February, when €530bn was borrowed by 800 institutions.
There was a link between the amounts banks bid for in three -year loans and the cost of their own bonds, the ECB said, with banks that faced higher debt issuance costs generally bidding for more central bank funds.
The expectation that part of the long-term liquidity will get through to the real economy is part of the ECB’s official reason for holding the LTROs. The central bank says its interest rate-setting policies need to be transmitted to the real economy.
In further evidence of easing tensions in eurozone financial markets, a benchmark rate at which banks in the eurozone lend to each other fell on Thursday to its lowest level since July 2010.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #24,479
- Mar 15, 2012 9:51am Mar 15, 2012 9:51am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
Sorry I missed your post... I was busy sitting back reading the newspaper....
Good stuff
I'm not ashamed to admit it and by understanding my weaknesses, I can condition myself and concur them.
PS: Took long at 1.3063 with DM5 (1.3093) as second target (now first from this entry).
PPS: This breakout also occured at what I'm calling 'first daily reversal' at 10 am.
Cheers!
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #24,480
- Mar 15, 2012 10:02am Mar 15, 2012 10:02am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: "Not all information is beneficial. | 1,724 Posts
Looks like you got all the levels covered
