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EUR/CHF

  • #3,581
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:20am Mar 14, 2012 10:20am
if this one-off temporary madness or the start of a long term sustained move like the yen?
  • #3,582
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:25am Mar 14, 2012 10:25am
Quoting tunera
If snb join the market you will understand
I would be surprised What i think that we will hear tomorrow again confirmation regarding 1.20. I think we have some speculkations now that SNB can rise the peg tomorrow but i do not expect this will happen... not in Q1. CPI this is the only thing which could force SNB to do something.

But let EURCHF will rise. I have nothing against as probably we all here..almost all
  • #3,583
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:27am Mar 14, 2012 10:27am
just say this on dailyfx:

Market talk Nr. 232 that SNB wil hike the peg

who or what is 'Market talk Nr. 232' anyways?
  • #3,584
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:32am Mar 14, 2012 10:32am
Quoting MiG123
just say this on dailyfx:

Market talk Nr. 232 that SNB wil hike the peg

who or what is 'Market talk Nr. 232' anyways?

But you can also find oppsite opinion That's life we like. As a result we have speculations and EURCHF movement. The same was in December...
  • #3,585
  • Edited 10:43am Mar 14, 2012 10:42am | Edited 10:43am
This from the WSJ today:

ZURICH—In a special session Wednesday, the Swiss parliament backed the independence of the Swiss National Bank amid urgent calls from politicians that the central bank increase its efforts to weaken the franc and consider broadening its policy instruments to manage the currency.

As they already hiked the USD Repo to 0.62% today, what more could they be thinking of?
  • #3,586
  • Mar 14, 2012 11:27am Mar 14, 2012 11:27am
Quoting Cuso
This from the WSJ today:

ZURICH—In a special session Wednesday, the Swiss parliament backed the independence of the Swiss National Bank amid urgent calls from politicians that the central bank increase its efforts to weaken the franc and consider broadening its policy instruments to manage the currency.

As they already hiked the USD Repo to 0.62% today, what more could they be thinking of?
shouldn´t a rise in the Repo rate appreciate the CHF instead of depreciating it?
  • #3,587
  • Mar 14, 2012 11:30am Mar 14, 2012 11:30am
What do you think about this opinion:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...rchf-bull-but/

Quote
I’m taking profits on EUR/CHF longs here.
The SNB can come out tomorrow and say just about anything but unless they hike the peg, it’s hard to see this pair going higher. The market is so long that any upside move will be overwhelmed by profit taking.
For me, the trade is to buy at 1.2030/40, sell at 1.2100/20 and repeat. Spot is at 1.2135.

May be the EURCHF market is extremely overbought now?
  • #3,588
  • Mar 14, 2012 11:47am Mar 14, 2012 11:47am
Quoting xivh
shouldn´t a rise in the Repo rate appreciate the CHF instead of depreciating it?
Correct me if I'm wrong. If the SNB is paying 0.02% more in an overnight USD repo, then they will have to pay more tommorow to buy them back. i.e. the dollars cost more tommorow than today, or the franc is 0.02% less worth than today.

Right?
  • #3,589
  • Mar 14, 2012 11:59am Mar 14, 2012 11:59am
Quoting Cuso
Correct me if I'm wrong. If the SNB is paying 0.02% more in an overnight USD repo, then they will have to pay more tommorow to buy them back. i.e. the dollars cost more tommorow than today, or the franc is 0.02% less worth than today.

Right?
what you´re saying is that if the SNB buys dollars from you today, they will have to pay 0.02% more tomorrow when they sell those dollars back right?

if that´s what you´re saying then your logic seems right to me, more comments anyone?
  • #3,590
  • Mar 14, 2012 12:19pm Mar 14, 2012 12:19pm
I think the repo rate is for the banks, who borrow dollars from the SNB, thus they, the banks, will be less inclined to buy dollars, thus CHF should appreciate
  • #3,591
  • Mar 14, 2012 12:41pm Mar 14, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting Igrach
I think the repo rate is for the banks, who borrow dollars from the SNB, thus they, the banks, will be less inclined to buy dollars, thus CHF should appreciate
This sounds right to me however if your Libor rate is staying the same and at the same time you raise the repo rate, are you not devaluing your currency?
  • #3,592
  • Mar 14, 2012 2:02pm Mar 14, 2012 2:02pm
Game is over? Very bad looking H4 candle....

http://www.fxtimes.com/fundamental-u...rate-decision/
Interesting
  • #3,593
  • Mar 14, 2012 2:51pm Mar 14, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting Igrach
I think the repo rate is for the banks, who borrow dollars from the SNB, thus they, the banks, will be less inclined to buy dollars, thus CHF should appreciate
Sorry but banks HAVE to buy dollars therefore CHF has been devaluated
  • #3,594
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:58pm Mar 14, 2012 3:58pm
I think it's better if you leave some stop under the 1.20. Maybe some spike will at night.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stop.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #3,595
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:16pm Mar 14, 2012 4:16pm
This will go to 1.25 no stopping
Enjoy everyone who is long 1.2049

Good times ahead.

Don't book profit early

If you really want to book than put sell order at 1.2080 for half position
I don't see it going today
  • #3,596
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:17pm Mar 14, 2012 4:17pm
Did you gyus experience this gap as we did at 21:05GMT

Attached Image
  • #3,597
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:05pm Mar 14, 2012 5:05pm
No Gaps on my oanda charts 5 minutes.
  • #3,598
  • Mar 14, 2012 6:34pm Mar 14, 2012 6:34pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
This will go to 1.25 no stopping
Enjoy everyone who is long 1.2049

Good times ahead.

Don't book profit early

If you really want to book than put sell order at 1.2080 for half position
I don't see it going today
This is an express line to 1.25, a quick stop there, then to the next station at 1.32. Fasten your sealtbelt, and enjoy the travel!
  • #3,599
  • Mar 15, 2012 1:33am Mar 15, 2012 1:33am
but we need waiting the jordan say something hawkish right
  • #3,600
  • Mar 15, 2012 1:36am Mar 15, 2012 1:36am
who knows what will happen, the action of today isn't very encouraging, still not broke the high of yesterday.. but yeah if jordan have something to say it's better that he say it today and be not shy!
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